Is the NFL Rigged for Ratings? A Betting Perspective

Sunday night’s Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship wasn’t just any football game. Nope! What started out as an ordinary pigskin Sunday went left and turned into a free-for-all viral conspiracy theory on social media—particularly on Twitter (ok, it’s X now, but it’ll always be Twitter in our hearts). 

There was a super questionable fourth-down spot, a Mahomes-led comeback, and the Bills Mafia was screaming to the high heavens about the refs being in the bag for the Chiefs.  And all of this drama reignited the debate around the NFL being rigged for ratings.

There were sports media meltdowns, Twitter detectives, and bettors who started side-eyeing their parlay slips. Why are fans so convinced that the league is in cahoots with whoever, and are billion-dollar TV deals and sports betting partnerships really incentivizing “narrative-friendly” game outcomes? And does any of this hold up to scrutiny? We don’t know, but we are gonna try to get to the bottom of it—and at least have a lil fun doing so! 

The Conspiracy Theory

If the NFL were a dramatic TV series, last night’s Chiefs-Bills game would’ve been an Emmy-worthy submission—there with plot twists, a quarterback duel, and a climax that was so suspiciously cinematic that Aaron Sorkin might have been taking a few notes. But when exactly does compelling television cross over into the “scripted sport” territory?

Bills called for unsportsmanlike conduct. Kelce was talking in Hamlin's face. Phillips came over and hit Kelce in the helmet and got flagged pic.twitter.com/DjjlFZ94V0

— Rate the Refs (@Rate_the_Refs) January 27, 2025

Historical Context

The NFL has come up against lots of controversies over the years—games were believed to be influenced to boost ratings or uphold certain team legacies. The NFL’s “scripted” allegations aren’t anything new, so let’s take a nostalgia trip down the league’s memory lane with a few infamous examples:

• The Tuck Rule (2002): Tom Brady’s fumble-that-wasn’t. This was a call that was so legendary that it launched a Patriots dynasty and a thousand social media conspiracy forums.  
• Dez Bryant’s “No Catch” (2014): A ruling so controversial that it still haunts Dallas Cowboys fans’ nightmares (and Aaron Rodgers’ smarmy smirk).  
• 2018 NFC Championship No-Call: A blatant pass interference was totally ignored, which sent the Saints into an existential crisis mode and the Rams to the Super Bowl.
• 1946 NFL Championship Game Fixing Scandal: New York Giants players Frank Filchock and Merle Hapes were accused of accepting bribes to fix the championship game against the Chicago Bears. While Hapes admitted to being approached, Filchock denied involvement. The Giants lost the game 24–14, and the scandal cast a long shadow over the league’s integrity.
• Spygate (2007): The New England Patriots were found to have illegally videotaped the New York Jets’ defensive signals from an unauthorized location. Head coach Bill Belichick was fined $500,000, and the team lost a first-round draft pick. This incident caused debates about the lengths that teams will go to gain a competitive edge.
• Deflategate (2015): The Patriots (again) were embroiled in controversy when they were accused of deliberately under-inflating footballs during the AFC Championship Game against the Indianapolis Colts. Quarterback Tom Brady got a four-game suspension, and the team was fined $1 million and forfeited draft picks. 
• New Orleans Saints Bounty Scandal (2012): An investigation revealed that Saints’ defensive players were actually rewarded for intentionally injuring opponents. Head coach Sean Payton was suspended for the entire 2012 season, and the team was hit with big monetary fines and lost draft picks.

The lesson that we can learn from the above examples? Controversy breeds engagement—and the NFL’s ratings do love engagement.  

Recent Examples

Even though this ball CLEARLY hit the ground and neither player had complete possession the refs rule that this was a catch by Xavier Worthy.

The Chiefs 🤝 The Refspic.twitter.com/hDMOoLq6xt

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 27, 2025

Last night’s game was a masterclass in what appeared to be suspiciously perfect drama:

• Mahomes’ Plot Armor: Critics argue that he gets phantom flags (see: the 2023 AFC Championship “roughing the passer” that wasn’t) while opponents get nada.
• Xavier Worthy’s Catch: A main play in the second quarter saw Chiefs receiver Xavier Worthy credited with a catch despite the ball appearing to graze the ground before he had full control. Replay reviews were inconclusive, and the call on the field stood. There was a Chiefs touchdown shortly after, which infuriated Bills fans and raised some good questions about catch-review rules.
• Josh Allen’s Fourth-and-1 Sneak: Late in the fourth quarter, Bills quarterback Josh Allen attempted a sneak on a critical fourth-and-1. The spot was initially signaled as a first down but was overturned after officials reviewed the play, declaring Allen short. The Bills lost possession, giving the Chiefs an opportunity to extend their lead. 
• Chiefs’ Minimal Penalties: The Chiefs kept up their streak of having fewer penalties than their opponents in the postseason, which kicked off complaints of preferential treatment. In this game, the Bills were penalized 9 times, compared to only 3 for the Chiefs. Fans argued that several uncalled infractions worked in Kansas City’s favor.

Impact on Betting

When the refs flagged that fourth-down spot as “short,” two things happened: Bills fans started Googling “Can I sue the NFL,” and live betting odds swung harder than a drunken karaoke rendition of Taylor Swift’s “Shake It Off.”

Betting Patterns

Notice how one call changes everything? That’s exactly what happened during the Chiefs vs. Bills game. Before kickoff, the Chiefs were slight favorites, but when Xavier Worthy’s catch went in their favor, sportsbooks adjusted in real time. The odds shifted heavily toward Kansas City, leaving anyone who backed Buffalo feeling like they’d been punched in the face.

Live betting apps went wild—sharp bettors piled onto the Chiefs after that pivotal call. And let’s be honest: it wasn’t just about strategy. Suspicion about the game’s fairness definitely had people second-guessing their picks, especially as penalty counts tilted heavily against the Bills. Bettors aren’t just gambling on the players—they are gambling on the officiating, too!

• Live Betting Swings: Chiefs’ moneyline odds spiked 18% after the call. Coincidence? Or an algorithmic foresight? A sportscaster joked, “The betting models now factor in ‘Mahomes Magic’ as a variable.”  
• Prop Bets Galore: Travis Kelce’s “first TD + proposal” parlay hit +7500. No, he didn’t propose to Tay Tay, but the fact that it was even offered as a prop bet says a lot.  
• Underdog Backlash: Pre-game, 68% of bets were on the Bills. By halftime? There was a “panic pivot” to the Chiefs’ futures.  

Bettor’s Psychology

If you’ve ever placed a bet and felt like the refs had a secret agenda, join the Bills Mafia club after Sunday’s game. Controversial calls, like Josh Allen’s overturned sneak, will mess with your head as much as your money. And it’s not only about you losing—it’s that sinking feeling that no matter how much research or analysis you do? It won’t matter because the game’s outcome might already be decided.

This erodes confidence in betting entirely! Why would you risk it when you think certain teams will get preferential treatment? But there are some who take the opposite approach: they lean into the chaos. Bettors start factoring in perceived “biases” and focus on props or live bets that aren’t dependent on questionable officiating. And can you blame them? When the narrative on the field feels like it’s been scripted, strategy starts to be as much about psychology as it is about stats.

• Trust Issues: A post-game poll found that 62% of bettors now “factor in ref bias” for Chiefs games. One Bills fan wrote, “I’d trust a used car salesman more than the NFL’s ‘integrity’.” Oof.
• Narrative Gambling: Why bet stats when you can bet storylines? Mahomes’ fourth-quarter comebacks, Swift’s screen time, and “Will the refs throw a flag on the final play?” are the new meta.  

Financial Incentives

We have to follow the money—because the NFL certainly does. The league’s $110 billion media empire thrives on eyeballs, and everyone’s eyeballs sure seem to love Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and, of course, 50-plus cutaways of his mega-star GF Taylor Swift.  

TV Deals and Revenue

The NFL’s financial health is tightly tied to its massive TV deals, as they bring in billions annually. In 2021, the league secured an 11-year, $113 billion deal with networks like CBS, FOX, NBC, ESPN, and Amazon. The contracts are driven by ratings—networks pay more when the games deliver drama that keeps viewers watching. High-profile matchups, last-second thrillers, and controversial finishes all add to the NFL’s ability to maintain its dominance in primetime slots.

A good example is Super Bowl LVII (2023), which set viewership records, partly thanks to its nail-biting finish. Ratings like these fuel speculation that the league could influence outcomes or push for dramatic narratives to guarantee maximum entertainment value. The Chiefs-Bills rivalry has been framed as must-watch TV for several seasons now. Is it just a coincidence that their games have close calls and highlight-reel drama? We aren’t sure, and neither are fans.

• Ratings Gold: Chiefs vs. Eagles (Super Bowl LVII) drew 115M viewers. Bills vs. Jaguars? A snooze-fest at 85M. The NFL certainly isn’t dumb—they know that dynasties make that money.  
• Prime-Time Bias: Mahomes’ games average 25M viewers. Allen’s? 18M. The league’s scheduling team isn’t exactly subtle about it, either.  

Betting Revenue

The NFL once avoided gambling entirely, but in the last few years, it’s welcomed the industry as a revenue juggernaut. Partnerships with DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars Sportsbook are reportedly worth hundreds of millions, and the league also earns a percentage of profits through gambling-related sponsorships and advertising. This has raised a lot of suspicious eyebrows when controversial outcomes directly impact the betting markets.

• The Gambling Pipeline: The NFL’s partnerships with DraftKings and FanDuel netted $1.3B in 2024. But there’s a catch: If games feel rigged, bettors will probably bail. Hence, the league’s aggressive “integrity monitoring” (read: PR campaigns).  
• Player Paradox: Calvin Ridley got suspended for a year for a $1,500 bet. But the  NFL partnering with casinos is totally fine. Nothing to see here! 

Evidence or Lack Thereof

Is the NFL rigged? The league (of course) emphatically says “no.” But Bills fans, at least during and after this game, and conspiracy theorists say, “YUP.” But what’s the truth? It’s hanging out in a gray area that’s murkier than Buffalo’s winter weather.

Refs are smoking that #ChiefsKingdom pack for sure and it’s not even halftime. Touching a facemask led to a TD. Now they make this call saying it was a catch that was more an INT, putting Mahomes in scoring position. #NFLRigged #AFCChampionship #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/Vg3pJzaLwN

— Jay Henry (@jayhenry79) January 27, 2025

Statistical Analysis

If you’re wondering if the NFL is serving up drama on purpose, the numbers don’t exactly do much to tamp down those suspicions. There are a few trends that come to mind, and they’ve definitely poured fuel on the “rigging” fire.

• Parity Paradox: Since 2020, 12 different teams have made the Super Bowl. If the league rigged it, they’re kinda bad at picking favorites.  
• Penalty Math: The Chiefs ranked 14th in penalty yards this season. The Bills? 7th. But try telling that to a fanbase that just watched Allen get stuffed by millimeters.
• Close Games: Over half of the games in the 2024 season were decided by 8 points or less. That’s the kind of action that networks love, but when it happens so frequently, it’s hard not to raise an eyebrow. Is it just solid competition or something else?
• Comebacks Galore: A whopping 23 games last season featured teams erasing a 14-point deficit to win. Fans call it exciting; skeptics call it too good to be true.
• Penalty Patterns: Here’s where things get a little dicey. Since 2021, the Chiefs haven’t had more penalties than their opponents in any of their 11 playoff games. In fact, they’ve almost always had fewer penalty yards, too. Coincidence? Or does the NFL like their golden boy, Mahomes, in the spotlight?

NFL Statements and Policies

The NFL knows that the rumors are out there, and they’ve made it super clear that they’re not amused. They’ve got policies in place to protect the game’s integrity, but the fans aren’t buying it.

• On the Record: After “Deflategate,” Roger Goodell said the league’s reputation was at stake, and they weren’t about to let it slide. The Patriots got slammed with fines, suspensions, and lost draft picks. Similarly, when the Saints’ “Bountygate” scandal broke, they handed out some of the harshest punishments in NFL history.
• Policies for Fair Play: The NFL’s Game Operations Manual lays it all out: every team has to give their best effort to win. No throwing games, no shady business—at least on paper. And with gambling partnerships booming, they’ve doubled down on rules. Players and staff can’t bet on games or share insider info. They’re even required to take mandatory training about it.
• Integrity Theater: The NFL employs ex-FBI agents, tracks betting lines in real-time, and suspends players for gambling… unless you’re a QB, apparently. We kid, we kid!

Betting Strategies Considering the Theory

You can’t beat the narrative, but you can bet on it. Savvy gamblers are now treating NFL games like prestige TV by trying to predict plot twists instead of point spreads.

Adjusting Expectations

Bettors already factor in stats, injuries, and trends—but what if the storylines are the real X-factor here? For those who believe in subtle game manipulation, it probably makes sense to shift their focus from cold, hard data to what would keep viewers glued to their screens.

• Betting on the Narrative: Think about it: Would the NFL want to push a superstar showdown like Mahomes vs. Burrow in the playoffs? If you’re betting with “ratings bait” in mind, you might favor the teams or matchups that drive high engagement. This could mean backing marquee teams who always draw big TV audiences.
• Expect the Unexpected: Close games and wild comebacks are the NFL’s bread and butter. Bettors can lean into this by targeting live bets, assuming any momentum swings will keep things tight. Wagering on the underdog to cover late in a game could line up with the perception of “manufactured drama.”
• Balance Stats with Suspicion: Stats still matter—but for skeptics, keeping a close eye on “storyline potential” could be just the edge that they’re looking for. If a game has the ingredients for a blockbuster finish, it’s worth asking: is this where the scriptwriters might step in?
• Narrative Hedging**: Down 10 in the 4th? Bet Mahomes’ comeback. The NFL loves a hero arc (and so do the cameras).  
• Avoid “Trap Games”: Bills vs. Jaguars? Safe. Bills vs. Chiefs? Chaos factor: 100%.  

New Betting Markets

The idea of “storyline betting markets” could appeal to fans who think that the NFL is as much entertainment as it is competition. The following could be some worthy new betting market contenders:

• Taylor Swift Prop Bets: “Over/Under 10.5 Taylor cutaways” is the new “Will the Gatorade be orange?”  
• Logo Color Theory: Super Bowl LIX’s lime green logo? Clearly, hinting at… the Jets? (Nope. But maybe the league wants us to think that?)  

Ethical and Legal Implications

Let’s say the NFL is rigged (again, this is a hypothetical—Roger Goodell’s lawyers, please don’t sue us). What then?  

Our Final Thoughts

Trying to prove that the NFL is rigged for ratings is like trying to find a coherent take on *First Take*—it’s messy, subjective, and ultimately inconclusive. But whether you’re a Bills fan nursing a conspiracy-sized hangover or a bettor who’s giving the stink eye to the refs, one thing is really clear: The NFL’s curated mix of sports and some spectacle thrown in has us all watching and talking about it.  

The next time you are watching an NFL game (which will be the Super Bowl), ask yourself this: Is this athletic excellence… or is it just really good TV? Either way, you should bet the over.