Warriors vs. Rockets Predictions and Bets Bets – April 20, 2025
The Warriors and the Rockets have a lot of history, and it’s not the friendly kind; it’s bad blood. From 2015 to 2019, the squads crossed paths in the playoffs five times, and every single time, the Dubs sent Houston home empty-handed. But this year’s series opener is gonna hit different.
Golden State’s back with a roster full of vets who’ve been through every kind of postseason war. Curry’s still letting it fly, Draymond’s still barking orders, and now they’ve got Jimmy Buckets, who’s fresh off a 38-point flamethrower in the play-in. They’re older, yeah, but playoff games are where they settle in and dictate how it’ll go.
And the Rockets are finally out of rebuild mode. They’ve climbed their way back into playoff contention behind Jalen Green’s scoring, Şengün’s muscle in the paint, and VanVleet’s super-steady hand. They’ve got home-court advantage and fresh legs, but this group hasn’t felt the heat of playoff pressure before.
Game 1 kicks off the Western Conference Quarterfinals, and you better believe that both squads are showing up. Who’s gonna win this one? Keep reading to see our pick!
Game Details
- Date & Time: Sunday, April 20 – 9:30 pm ET
- Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
- Broadcast: TNT / truTV / Max
Betting Odds (via DraftKings):
- Spread: Rockets -1.5
- Total: 213.5
- Moneyline: Warriors +105 | Rockets -120
Houston is the favorite on paper, but anyone who’s watched Golden State in the playoffs? That can change in a flash.
Team Overviews
One team has rings and receipts. The other is attempting to stay on the court long enough to build a solid CV. How are they looking heading into Game 1? Let’s find out!
Golden State Warriors
They’ve been here before, like a lot. The Warriors are older, but they still have the IQ, chemistry, and scorers to pull off something big.
- Regular Season Record: 48-34
- Play-In Performance: Took down Memphis to secure their spot. Butler put up 38 and didn’t even break a sweat doing it.
Key Players
- Draymond Green: Keeps the defense locked in and never shuts up, on or off the ball.
- Stephen Curry: Still one of the toughest covers in the league, even at 37 (considered ancient in basketball)
- Jimmy Butler: Midseason addition who immediately made his mark. He knows how to show up when the lights are up.
Houston Rockets
After a long stretch of being on the outside looking in, the Rockets are back, and they sure don’t look like they’re just happy to be here. This team has talent, heart, and isn’t dragging any playoff baggage with them.
- Regular Season Record: 52-30
- Playoff Return: First trip since 2020, and they more than earned it by playing smart ball and with a great finish.
Key Players
- Fred VanVleet: Brings some poise and playoff experience and knows how to steady a younger squad when things tighten up.
- Jalen Green: Can fill it up from anywhere and has never been shy about taking big shots.
- Alperen Şengün: Controls the glass and gives Houston extra looks every game.
Head-to-Head Analysis
As every basketball fan knows, there’s a long history between the two squads, but the names on the jerseys are different now. This year’s season series was close and competitive, but the playoff past still favors Golden State pretty heavily.
- Season Series: Warriors took the series 3-2, including a win in the NBA Cup quarterfinal.
- Historical Playoff Matchups: Golden State has never dropped a playoff series to Houston, sending them home again and again from 2015 to 2019.
Key Matchups to Watch
Since there is no shortage of firepower, Game 1 could come down to the grind, like who handles the matchups that don’t make the ESPN highlight reel.
- Stephen Curry vs. Houston’s Perimeter Defense: Curry still warps defensive schemes every time he crosses half-court. Houston managed to hold him to only three points earlier in the season, but doing that again with playoff pressure in the equation is another story. Expect constant movement, high screens, and defenders getting tested nonstop.
- Battle on the Boards: Houston crashes the glass harder than almost anyone, with Şengün giving them extra looks all night. The Warriors need Draymond, Looney, and anyone in a jersey to get physical and clear space, because if the Rockets start getting second chances, things could get messy.
- Jimmy Butler’s Impact: Butler knows how to change the momentum, especially in high-pressure moments. He doesn’t need 40 to make his presence known; one steal, one clutch bucket, or just getting under someone’s skin could be all it takes to throw Houston off of their game.
Betting Insights
Betting sites are keeping it close, and for good reason. One team’s got the longer résumé, and the other’s got home court and younger legs. Below are the odds according to DraftKings:
- Spread: Rockets -1.5
- Over/Under: 213.5
- Moneyline: Warriors +105 | Rockets -120
Expert Predictions
- The Warriors aren’t the higher seed, but their playoff track speaks for itself and has some projections favoring Golden State slightly based on experience alone.
- ESPN Analytics gives Houston a 57.8% chance to take Game 1, but that gap? It’s not large enough to completely write off Golden State.
Our Prediction
Golden State’s been in this spot plenty of times, and they usually come out composed when the game gets close. Houston’s got talent and energy, but this kind of spotlight can be really different when you haven’t been in it before.
Final Score: Warriors 108, Rockets 104
Why do we think this? Because Curry can still bend defenses even without dropping 40, Butler’s presence gives them another steady option late, and the Warriors have a knack for closing games the right way. Houston will make them work for it, but Game 1 feels like a place where experience will win out.
Game 1 Sets the Stage for a Heated Series
The Rockets have been waiting for this moment, and they’ve finally got the roster that’ll give them a fighting chance. But the Warriors have been here, done that, so they aren’t wide-eyed newbies. They know exactly what it takes to snag the opener on the road.
Whoever triumphs, Game 1 is looking like it’ll be a battle from tipoff to the final buzzer. One team is trying to turn the page, and the other wants to remind everyone that they’re not done yet.
