Who Will Be the Next Pope? Betting Odds and Our Predictions
While it might seem like a cheeky comparison, there’s a way in which every consistory—the event where a pope appoints new cardinals—resembles the Iowa caucuses in U.S. politics.
Essentially, it’s a moment for emerging contenders for the church’s highest position to step into the limelight. Officially, cardinals are the top advisors to the pope who appointed them, and eventually, they’ll be the ones to choose his successor.
Beyond that, they’re seen as possible future popes themselves. So, whenever a consistory happens, people pay close attention to the new lineup, looking for clues not just about what the cardinals might want but also who could be in the running for the papacy next.
Of course, pinpointing the “papabili,” or those considered likely to be the next pope, isn’t an exact science. There aren’t any exploratory committees or big announcements of candidacies.
Pope Francis passed away on April 21, 2025, at the age of 88, at his residence in the Vatican’s Casa Santa Marta. His death followed a month-long hospitalization for double pneumonia. The Vatican announced his passing, marking the end of a papacy that began in 2013.
Enter the “Vatican-watchers;” those who are willing to vocalize what many are only whispering or discussing in hushed tones, aka “sotto voce.”
But you don’t have to be a card-carrying Vatican watcher to bet on who will be the next pope because betting markets also get in on the action—literally. Yes, you can place bets on who it will be.
The candidates are emerging, and we are going to break down the contenders, their odds, and our predictions on who will be the next pope!
The Papal Betting Arena
The Papal elections are pretty secretive compared to regular political races, and much more complex. But betting on the next pontiff is not just limited to picking the Pope—markets offer bets on the nationality, age, and continent of the next Bishop of Rome, so you have a lot of options.
| Candidate (Age) | Country | Current Role | Known For | Odds Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Luis Antonio Tagle (67) | Philippines | Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples | Charisma, global outreach, considered a Francis-style candidate | Front-runner |
Pietro Parolin (70) | Italy | Vatican Secretary of State | Diplomatic background, continuity with the current Vatican structure | Top Contender |
Peter Turkson (76) | Ghana | Chancellor of the Pontifical Academies of Sciences and Social Sciences | Advocacy for environmental and social justice, African representation | Prominent Pick |
Péter Erdő (72) | Hungary | Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest | Conservative theology, legal scholarship, and traditional values | Dark Horse |
Matteo Zuppi (69) | Italy | Archbishop of Bologna | Bridge-building, pastoral approach, progressive lean | Compromise Candidate |
The Leading Contenders
Now that the conclave is officially on the calendar, the frontrunners are clearer. Here are the names bookmakers, pundits, and Catholic insiders are watching most closely:
Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)
Odds: Shortened dramatically since the death of Pope Francis
The Filipino Cardinal, known for his charismatic presence and strong record in evangelization, trails closely with odds at 5/1. The 67-year-old enjoys widespread popularity and could potentially be the first Asian Pope. Praised by the Vatican, he has managed to steer clear of any controversies.
Pietro Parolin (Italy)
Odds: Competitive
As the Vatican Secretary of State, Parolin has been involved in almost every major Church decision over the past decade. He’s diplomatic, fluent in global politics, and firmly within the Vatican inner circle. His candidacy would signal continuity, with a touch more traditional polish. He’s 70 and seen as one of the safest picks in the eyes of more conservative cardinals.
Peter Turkson (Ghana)
Odds: Holding steady
Turkson is back in the spotlight with renewed momentum. He’s 76 and known for pushing the Church on issues like climate change and social justice. His background in African theology and global economics makes him appealing to Church leaders looking to reflect Catholicism’s growth in the Global South. And if elected, he would become the first African pope in over a millennium.
Péter Erdő (Hungary)
Odds: Gaining traction
Erdő, 72, is the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and a heavyweight among theologically conservative Catholics. He’s sharp, formal, and often discussed as the cerebral pick. Erdő could appeal to those seeking a more hardline leader after the Francis era.
Matteo Zuppi (Italy)
Odds: Trending up
Zuppi has carved out a reputation as a bridge-builder. He’s 69, leads the Archdiocese of Bologna, and is known for championing dialogue, interfaith work, and pastoral outreach. His name has been rising as a possible compromise candidate—someone who checks both progressive and traditional boxes.
Special Markets
Besides predicting the next Pope, the betting markets offer other areas—from the papal name the new Pope might choose, with options like Leo, Francis, and John being popular picks, to bets on the continent from which the next Pope will hail, these special markets add extra ways to bet on the proceedings.
What Could Be the Next Pope’s Chosen Name?
Gamblers not only wager on who will become the next pope but also on what name he will adopt upon assuming the papacy, and several names are leading the odds in the betting market.
The name a new pope chooses is symbolic—and yes, people are betting on it.
- Francis II (+300): A tribute to the late Pope Francis would be a respectful move.
- Pius or John (+400): Safe bets with plenty of historical weight. John has been used 21 times, while Pius was favored by popes who steered through turbulent times.
- Gregory or Benedict (+700): Traditional but less likely unless the next pope wants to echo Benedict XVI or Gregory the Great.
- Other options: Paul, Clement, John Paul, Boniface, Innocent…all floating around +800 and +900.
How It Works
The election process is an elaborate affair, beginning with a secret ballot among bishops under 80. A two-thirds majority is needed, and if not met, multiple rounds of voting ensue until a new Pontiff is chosen, marked by the famous white smoke signaling a decision.
Our Predictions
Who do we think will be the new pope? Well, odds are one thing, but there are a lot of other things that factor into the decisions, and they include momentum, alliances, geography, and Church politics.
- If cardinals want a global, forward-thinking continuation of Francis’s legacy, Luis Tagle is the obvious front-runner.
- If they are looking for stability and internal control, Parolin is a serious contender.
- Turkson is the pick with worldwide appeal, and Zuppi is the compromise that could eke through on a later ballot.
But don’t count out the wildcard. Every conclave has at least one “wait, who?” moment, and the Holy Spirit (and maybe a few backdoor deals) could shock everyone.
Final Thoughts
Pope Francis has passed, and we’re officially in one of the most sacred and secretive elections in the world. Eyes will be glued to the Vatican chimney, and betting markets will be moving (hopefully respectfully) until the final decision is made.
Betting on the next Pope is more than a gamble; it’s an interesting look at the intersection of faith, culture, and global politics. If you’re placing a wager or just following the speculation, it’s always an event that commands attention from all corners of the world. Until then, keep your eyes open for the “fumata bianca” billowing from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney.
