The Odds Speak: What Betting Markets Tell Us About the 2024 Presidential Election
The battle for the presidency is set for a repeat performance between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, as each has clinched their party’s nomination on Tuesday, March 12, 2024, following their commanding performances during “Super Tuesday.”
Reports from the Associated Press highlight that this year’s primary season is among the briefest in recent memory, with Trump securing the Republican nomination at a pace not seen since 1972.
The GOP will gather for its National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, from July 15-18, whereas the Democrats will host their convention in Chicago, Illinois, from August 19-22. Trump is currently the favored contender with odds at -110 (Wager $110 to win $100) for winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden is listed with +175 odds (Wager $100 to win $175) to win re-election as President. For those betting on an unexpected turn in the race, oddsmakers suggest there are still chances for surprises regarding who will be running come next November.
The underdogs, viewed by many as long shots, are Michelle Obama with odds of +1600, Gavin Newsom at +2000, and Robert Kennedy Jr. at +2200. Kennedy is trying to emerge as a significant contender, especially in the speculation for Vice President choices. Although his chances of winning the U.S. Presidential Election remain unchanged, another betting market might become relevant, as noted by SportsHandle.com.
So, what are betting markets telling us about the rematch between Biden and Trump and the entire field of candidates in the 2024 Presidential election? Quite a lot, actually!
The 2024 Presidential Election Betting Odds
Here are the current 2024 Presidential election betting odds, which are subject to change—and if you are in the U.S., you cannot, we repeat, you cannot legally bet on the election or any other political events. If you are outside the U.S. and it’s legal, you can place your bets!
Bet365, an authorized UK-based betting site, has listed the following odds:
- Donald Trump -110
- Joe Biden -110
- Michelle Obama +2000
- Robert Kennedy Jr. +2000
- Gavin Newsom +3300
- Kamala Harris +3300
- Nikki Haley +5000
- Gretchen Whitmer +7000
- Hakeem Jeffries +10000
- Elizabeth Warren +15000
- Hillary Clinton +15000
Reading the Odds (Examples)
- Wager $100 on Donald Trump at -110 odds to receive $91 in winnings.
- Stake $100 on Gavin Newsome at +3300 odds for a potential $3,300 return.
2024 U.S. Presidential Winning Party Odds
- Republicans -105
- Democrats -115
- Independent +2500
U.S. Swing State Odds
In the U.S., the outcome of presidential elections often hinges on the results in six pivotal states, commonly referred to as “swing states,” because of their potential to tip the balance toward one candidate or another.
The states identified as key battlegrounds are as follows:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- North Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
If you live in a “swing” state, you might want to pay close attention to the betting odds before deciding.
Early Favorites for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Shortly after the inauguration, Vice President Kamala Harris led the betting market with odds of +350, followed by Biden at +400 and Trump at +650.
These odds have shifted, with former First Lady Michelle Obama now in third place at +2,000, even though she hasn’t ever campaigned or even hinted of having the slightest intention to run.
Biden has reclaimed the second spot with odds of +120, while Harris’s odds have dropped, placing her in fifth at +3,300.
Trump’s Odds of Winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Trump has climbed to the top of the presidential betting market at +100 (a rise from +250 last summer) in spite of facing four different trials. Many speculated these legal challenges would impede Trump’s campaign, yet the Supreme Court delivered a unanimous ruling in his favor regarding a 14th Amendment case in Colorado. Additionally, other trials have been postponed, casting uncertainty over whether they will conclude before Election Day.
Trump’s dominance within the Republican Party was unmistakably affirmed after he triumphed in 14 out of 15 states on Super Tuesday and achieved overwhelming wins in the majority of primaries.
The competition withdrew months earlier, with many throwing their support behind Trump, and Haley’s departure marked the last contender to exit the race. Consequently, most betting sites have removed their odds for the Republican nomination, citing Trump’s overwhelming lead.
A recent survey by The New York Times and Siena College showed Trump ahead of Biden by five points, while Smarkets estimates Trump’s chances of reclaiming the presidency at 48.08%—nearly 15 points above Biden.
Although poll results are not always reliable, this trend does not bode well for the Democrats. Despite winning the popular vote in the 2016 elections, the Democrats lost to Trump due to pivotal swing states. Should Trump secure the popular vote this round, his victory in the general election would seem almost certain.
Biden’s Odds of Winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
In September, Biden’s odds were at +150, shifting to +200 in November, and his betting odds improved to +120 in April. Amid challenges like the situation at the border and his approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict, an uptick in the economy has mitigated concerns about a potential recession.
Currently, Biden’s approval rating stands at 37.93%, per FiveThirtyEight, a drop from last year’s 42%. Yet, recent figures from the Smarkets exchange show a rise in Biden’s chances of securing re-election in 2024 to 33.3%, up from 26.3% just a month ago.
With Biden’s re-election odds at +140 and the Democratic Party favored at +110 to win, there seems to be value in betting on the incumbent. History shows no sitting president has lost to a primary challenger, and it’s unlikely the Democrats will switch leaders now. Unless unforeseen health issues arise, Biden is poised to be the Democratic nominee for the upcoming election cycle.
Biden’s odds to be the Democratic nominee in 2024 are now at -500, reflecting an 83.3% implied probability. It’s important to note that the two Democrats closest to him in the betting odds have declared they do not plan to run.
2024 Presidential Election Prediction
With odds at +120, President Joe Biden is considered a strong bet despite experiencing a challenging first term. Unless faced with a significant health issue akin to Mitch McConnell, Biden is highly likely to be the Democratic nominee next year, with the Democrats positioned as either slight favorites or modest underdogs, approximately at +100, for securing the presidency.
Although Trump leads the polls among Republican candidates, his betting odds appear overly optimistic, especially considering the legal hurdles that might affect his campaign efforts. Similarly, it’s wise to avoid betting on Michelle Obama and Newsom. Despite their rising odds, neither has displayed a real intention to challenge Biden.
2024 Republican Odds
Despite the growing legal issues he faces, Donald Trump is still solidly positioned to secure his party’s nomination once more. Here are the 2024 Republican Odds posted on bet365:
| Nomination Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | -5000 | 98% |
Nikki Haley | +1400 | 6.7% |
Ryan Binkley | +30000 | 0.3% |
2024 Democratic Odds
Unless Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama suddenly decide to throw their hats into the ring, Joe Biden is the clear favorite to win the Democratic nomination. bet365 has these odds for the potential candidates:
| Nomination Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | -500 | 83.3% |
Gavin Newsom | +900 | 10% |
Michelle Obama | +1000 | 9.1% |
Kamala Harris | +1200 | 7.7% |
Dean Phillips | +5000 | 2% |
Elizabeth Warren | +5000 | 2% |
Gretchen Whitmer | +5000 | 2% |
Hillary Clinton | +8000 | 1.2% |
Robert Kennedy Jr. | +12500 | 0.8% |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | +15000 | 0.7% |
Susan Rice | +20000 | 0.5% |
Pete Buttigieg | +30000 | 0.3% |
Marianne Williamson | +40000 | 0.2% |
Biden’s 2024 Re-Election Odds
Unless health issues arise, Joe Biden is almost certain to clinch his party’s nomination at the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago this summer. However, succeeding in the general election is an entirely different challenge. The 81-year-old has been behind Trump in the odds since December 2023, even though he has guided the U.S. to steady economic growth and averted an expected recession. Despite his achievements, just 39% of Americans approve of Biden’s performance as the nation’s leader.
Final Thoughts
The insights gleaned from the betting apps covering the 2024 Presidential Election offer a compelling snapshot of the political landscape as it stands. The narrative that unfolds from these odds is one of a highly anticipated rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, each holding significant sway within their respective parties. Trump’s resilient positioning atop the Republican odds, in spite of formidable legal challenges, underscores his enduring influence and the solid backing he enjoys from GOP voters. Meanwhile, Biden’s fluctuating odds reflect a mix of challenges and achievements, including economic progress amidst domestic and international concerns, painting a complex picture of his presidency thus far.
The undercurrents within the betting markets reveal broader themes about voter sentiment, party loyalty, and the unpredictability of political fortunes.
Trump’s surprising resilience, as indicated by the odds, alongside Biden’s ability to maintain a competitive stance, highlights the deep divisions within the American electorate and the potential for a fiercely contested election.
The odds also shed light on the dynamics of the vice-presidential nominations and the broader field of potential candidates, suggesting a landscape where established political figures maintain dominance while newcomers and outsiders remain long shots.
As the election approaches, the betting odds serve as a barometer for the shifting sands of political favor and the strategies that might emerge.
- For Biden, the challenge lies in bolstering his approval ratings and leveraging economic successes to sway undecided voters.
- For Trump, the task is to navigate legal hurdles while cementing his leadership role within the Republican Party.
The betting markets, with their fluctuations and surprises, remind us of the inherent uncertainties in political prognostication and the myriad factors that can sway electoral outcomes.
The 2024 Presidential Election is shaping up to be a historic confrontation, and betting markets give us a glimpse into the potential trajectories of the candidates and the election itself. They underscore the importance of voter sentiment, the impact of current events on political fortunes, and the unpredictability of electoral politics. As the nation watches and waits, the odds will continue to change, reflecting the dynamic nature of American politics.
