Analyzing Early Super Bowl Odds: Which Teams Offer the Best Value?
Early Super Bowl odds can offer bettors a significant advantage because you can secure better odds before the market makes some major shifts! We’ll break down the early Super Bowl odds from our favorite sports betting apps and identify teams that offer the best value for bettors. If your bets are correct, you also stand to profit much more money than you would have if you waited longer to act!
Understanding Super Bowl Odds
If you aren’t familiar with betting on the Super Bowl, let alone sports betting itself, keep reading to learn how Super Bowl odds are established and how you can read the bookmakers’ data and turn it into some winning bets! Super Bowl odds aren’t too difficult to read once you understand how they work, so no worries!
What Are Super Bowl Odds?
There are three primary ways to bet on Super Bowl 59: moneylines, point spread bets, and over/under (totals). Here’s an example of how they might appear on a typical odds sheet between two teams:
| Team | Moneyline | Point Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | -135 | -2.5 (-110) | OVER 30.5 (-110) |
49ers | +115 | +2.5 (-110) | UNDER 30.5 (-110) |
Moneyline odds are the likelihood of each team winning the Big Game. Point spreads are bets on the final margin of victory. Totals (also known as over/under bets) represent the final combined score at the end of the game, and bettors bet on whether the actual final score will come in over or under this number.
How do moneyline odds translate to probability in this scenario between the Chiefs and the 49ers facing a Super Bowl rematch in 2025?
- Moneylines – The Chiefs are the favorite to win the game in this scenario because their odds are represented by the negative number: -135. Bettors must stake $135 to win $100 for a total payout of $235 (because bettors get their stake back in addition to what they profit). According to these odds, the 49ers are the underdog team—they’re represented by the positive number: +115. Bettors must stake $100 to win $115 in profit, resulting in a total payout of $215.
- Point Spreads – In the situation of betting on the final margin of victory, the Chiefs (-2.5/-110) must win by 3 or more points over the 49ers for this bet to be considered a win. A bet on the 49ers (+2.5/-110) will be posted as a win if the 49ers win outright over the Chiefs or lose by 2 points or less.
- Totals – For over/under betting, the prediction of the final score is 30 (combined between both teams), so bettors can place stakes on the Big Game’s score, coming under 30 points or over 30 points.
How Early Odds Are Set
Though many bettors might not think about how the early odds are established for the Super Bowl, there’s a system that sportsbooks and bookmakers use to get these numbers, and it all begins with each team’s “team’spower rating.” Most of the time, a rating of 100 represents the best team, though the final number could be higher or lower. The bookmakers take the difference between the two “power ratings” and then factor in aspects like team performance, roster changes, home-field advantage, weather, injuries, etc.
While the initial odds are established using a math- and science-heavy methodology, the odds can shift as the season progresses and the methodology becomes more rooted in things like public perception or building momentum, as well as some of the factors above. Sharp money is also a factor that can change odds—bookmakers adjust the lines accordingly to even out the action on either side of a bet.
Key Factors to Consider When Analyzing Super Bowl Odds
To successfully read Super Bowl 59 betting odds, bettors must keep a few key factors in mind to ensure they’re placing the best bets they can! At the end of the day, the odds are numbers representing the likelihood of each team making it to the Big Game, but what elements inform these numbers in the first place? Let’s dive into the reasons behind the Super Bowl odds you’re at the beginning of the season—make a Super Bowl bet that’s rooted in insight and research!
Team Performance and Roster Strength
One significant element informing the current odds for the Super Bowl is the team’s previous season’s performance. Names like the Kansas City Chiefs or the San Francisco 49ers will undoubtedly have better odds of making it to the Big Game, considering that the Chiefs have made it to four of the last five Super Bowls (and won three of them) and that the 49ers have made two appearances in the previous five.
Another element that impacts this season’s odds is any off-season changes that might have occurred in the teams’ rosters. Staying current on these significant changes will help you make the most informed Super Bowl bets possible. If a particular team loses a player in off-season trades
Strength of Schedule
If you’re new to betting on the NFL, “strength of schedule” refers to the difficulty or ease of a team’s opponent compared to other teams. It’s the combined record of all teams in a schedule, and the “strength of victory” is the combined record of all teams that were beaten in that schedule.
The strength of the schedule is used to determine the draft position. If two teams have the same record at the end of the previous season, the team with the lower winning percentage against their opponent gets the higher draft pick. Teams with easier schedules are much more likely to make the playoffs.
So, it makes no difference if the team is technically sound or flawed—the schedule’s strength can cause a worse team to make the playoffs, while a better team could miss out!
Injuries and Player Availability
Factors like player injury or suspensions can significantly affect Super Bowl odds. If a team is missing a key player from its lineup, there’s a good chance that its odds of winning the Big Game will shift. The bookmakers, sports betting platforms, and other analysts keep a close eye on players’ health through the season leading up to the Super Bowl, and they’ll adjust their odds accordingly.
Coaching and Management
The coaches and team management are responsible for developing their team’s overall game plan and strategy, so their strategic decisions can heavily influence how the team plays. Though they aren’t hitting, throwing, running, scoring, or catching, coaches play a pivotal role in the team’s performance and their likelihood of making it to the playoffs and the Super Bowl.
Coaches’ duties include personnel decisions, play calling, and adjustments throughout the game. They also cover all aspects of practice, player development, and film study. Another noteworthy duty is setting the tone for the team’s discipline, energy, and mentality—motivation and strong leadership play a crucial role here and elevate that team’s chances of performing well all season long.
Market Sentiment
Public sentiment and media coverage are critical in a team’s odds of making the Super Bowl shift and evolve throughout the season. The betting public usually has a specific team in mind as the favorite, and most of the public’s money will end up riding on that team. Books will even out action on these bets by making the underdog more appealing to bet on, usually in the form of a discount.
As the season carries on, it can become difficult to discern the actual likelihood of each team winning because the odds have shifted to balance the books. This is why bettors must pair recent performance data, historical statistics, and other factors with market sentiment to make a solid, informed bet on the Super Bowl.
Top Teams to Watch—Best Value Picks
Let’s highlight the top teams you’ll want to look at this season with the greatest likelihood of making it to Super Bowl 59. As it stands, the sportsbooks have the Chiefs, 49ers, and Ravens as the likeliest franchisees to get through the playoffs and secure a position at the Big Game:
Kansas City Chiefs
Current Odds
The Kansas City Chiefs are the odds-on favorites to win Super Bowl 59 in February:
| Sportbook | Odds |
|---|---|
DraftKings | +475 |
FanDuel | +500 |
Caesars | +575 |
BetRivers | +500 |
BetMGM | +450 |
Reasons for Value
Kansas City is a strong contender to win the next Super Bowl, considering that they have made it to four of the last five Super Bowls and won two! Just consider last year’s performance:
- The Chiefs won the 2024 Super Bowl, coming off a season record of 11-6.
- In the conference, KC went 9-3, and they went 4-2 in the AFC West.
- They went 4-2 at home and 6-2 on the road.
- They scored 21.8 points per game.
- Their record in one-possession games was 6-5—they won twice in games decided by three points or fewer.
- The Chiefs hold a record of 2-4 after playing in six island games last season.
San Francisco 49ers
Current Odds
As the odds stand now with the online sportsbooks, the 49ers are looking like the second-most likely team to win the Big Game:
| Sportbook | Odds |
|---|---|
DraftKings | +550 |
FanDuel | +550 |
Caesars | +625 |
BetRivers | +500 |
BetMGM | +550 |
Reasons for Value
For the first time in two years, the 49ers will have a first-round draft pick, meaning they’ll be entering 2024 with one of the most competitive rosters in the entire league. You combine this with the fact that they’ve been to the Super Bowl twice in the last five years, along with the Chiefs trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins in exchange for a package of five draft picks, and you have a recipe for what could be a Super Bowl win for the 49ers!
Betting on the 49ers to win the Super Bowl could be an intelligent early bet because the sportsbooks may be underestimating their ability. We recommend that our readers make early bets on the 49ers to get a reasonable price on the odds as they stand now!
Baltimore Ravens
Current Odds
We viewed the Super Bowl odds at our favorite football betting apps, and here’s what we found:
| Sportbook | Odds |
|---|---|
DraftKings | +1200 |
FanDuel | +1200 |
Caesars | +900 |
BetRivers | +1200 |
BetMGM | +1200 |
Reasons for Value
The bookmakers call the Ravens a sleeper pick to make it to Super Bowl 59. Several promising players can carry this team to victory, including:
- Lamar Jackson scored 273 passing yards and completed 63.4% of his passes in a recent faceoff with Kansas City.
- Rashod Bateman added 53 yards on two catches and put up 53.0 receiving yards per game.
- Justice Hill: He caught six passes on eight targets for 52 yards.
Potential Risks—One Team That May Be Overvalued
There’s a team that we feel the books are overvaluing, and that could turn out to be a disappointment come the day of the Big Game. They are already a long shot to make it to the Super Bowl, and it could be a waste of time to bet on them as Super Bowl champions this year.
Philadelphia Eagles
Current Odds
| Sportbook | Odds |
|---|---|
DraftKings | +1000 |
FanDuel | +1100 |
Caesars | +900 |
BetRivers | +1100 |
BetMGM | +1100 |
Reasons for Overvaluation
With the firings of both the offensive and defensive coordinators and the two retirements of Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox, this is a big rebuilding year for the Eagles. And who’s to say that Philadelphia might not experience a repeat of the late-season collapse we saw in 2023 happen again this year with less experienced players on the roster?
Betting Strategies for Early Super Bowl Odds
It can be tricky to bet on one of the most significant NFL events of the year, especially if you place your bet several months before. So many things can change during that time that it can quickly make the current information completely useless. However, there are a few tricks to betting Super Bowl 59 in the fall where you can still make a profit come February.
Diversifying Bets
Because you’re staking money on an event that’s too far in the future to bet on with the best accuracy, it’s best to spread your bets across multiple teams to hedge against risks. In the case of Super Bowl 59, don’t just bet on the winner. Consider betting on the team that will cover the spread or on whether the game’s combined score will fall under or over the line. The more you can spread your money around in multiple bets, the better off you’ll be weathering risks.
Monitoring Odds Changes
Check into multiple sportsbooks regularly throughout the season to see where the odds are shifting and which teams are either gaining momentum or losing steam. Remember that odds can fluctuate based on actual probability of each outcome, but it can also be due to the book’s balancing the action. Know the difference so you don’t add the wrong odds to your bet slip. You might hedge your bets by placing additional wagers on opposing outcomes. Doing so will help you minimize potential losses and secure profits, regardless of how the Big Game turns out.
Long-Term Betting vs. Short-Term Gains
The best option is consistently sticking with your original wager and hedging your bets to offset a possible loss. You’re ultimately paying more vig on the cashout or the hedge bets, so it’s never going to be as good as the expected value you’ll get from your original bet, even if the odds shift drastically.
Lock in Value Early with Super Bowl Bets
After analyzing early Super Bowl odds and identifying teams with the best value, placing early Super Bowl bets is best to get the best-expected value. Just remember to root your picks in solid research and the application of historical data. When placing your Super Bowl bets early, keep factors in mind like recent performance, strength of schedule, injuries, market sentiment, and coaching to inform your decision—keep an eye on how odds change as the season progresses.
