2025 NCAA Final Four Betting Odds and Predictions
The 2025 NCAA tournament has been insane so far, and now that the Final Four is here? It’s about to get crazier. This is a battle between the bluebloods and the bulldozers of college basketball history. For the first time since 2008, all four No. 1 seeds—Duke, Florida, Houston, and Auburn—are at the party, and it’ll turn the Alamodome into a pressure cooker of legacy bets and bracket-busting messiness. No Cinderella stories and no miracles will be happening here…just four teams that are built to win. And with millions of bettors flooding the sportsbooks, the stakes are pretty high!
The tourney has been an absolute masterclass in control. Defending champs UConn? Knocked out by Florida’s track-meet offense in the Sweet 16. Cinderella hopefuls like Saint Mary’s and Dayton? They were obliterated by Houston’s brick-wall defense. And Auburn’s jumbled run, which was complete with a Johni Broome injury scare (we are going to talk about this man’s hurt elbow a lot), couldn’t even derail the chalk. Now that San Antonio’s bright lights are looming, who’s gonna blink first?
Want a complete breakdown of the latest odds, main matchups, and our expert predictions for Saturday’s (April 5) games and Monday’s (April 7) clash of the titans? You got it! If you’re hedging a bracket or hunting for the best value, we have your definitive guide to all of the action on (and off) the court.
Don’t go anywhere—we’ve got the best insights (and a promo code) so that you can turn your bets into wins!
The 2025 Final Four Teams at a Glance
It’s time to meet the squads! Below, we go over their strengths, flaws, and March Madness journeys—get to know them, as they could make or break your bets!
Duke Blue Devils
Duke (31-5) cruised through the ACC and into San Antonio behind Cooper Flagg, the 6’9” phenom that is averaging 20.1 points and 9.4 rebounds. Their Elite Eight win over Alabama showed off Flagg’s two-way superiority, but their three-point shooting is still shaky. Defense? Elite (2nd nationally). Betting angle: Can they make it through Houston’s seemingly unstoppable grind?
Florida Gators
Florida (29-7) plays at what looks like warp speed, which is led by point guard Jeremy Jenkins (18.6 PPG, 6.9 APG), who torched UConn for 32 points in the Elite Eight. Their 13-3 ATS record since February screeches value, but their defense (48th in efficiency) is a pretty big red flag. Can they manage to outrun Auburn’s injured big man?
Houston Cougars
Houston (32-4) bullied its way here with the nation’s top defense, and it smothered Kansas into 38% shooting in the Elite Eight. Senior guard Jamal Shead (17.2 PPG, 4.1 steals) is a total lockdown artist, but their offense sputters out against disciplined teams. Duke’s length could be their downfall.
Auburn Tigers
Auburn (28-8) rode center Johni Broome (16.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG) through a crazy comeback against Kentucky, but his elbow injury is definitely a major concern. The Tigers shoot 38% from three as a team, and that’s a boom-or-bust nightmare for bettors. Their regular-season loss to Florida (90-81) adds a little more intrigue to this matchup!
Why This Matters
Each of the Final Four teams’ flaws is pretty glaring. Duke’s shaky offense, Florida’s defense, Houston’s scoring droughts, and Auburn’s volatility mean that every game is a coin toss.
Current Final Four Betting Odds
The odds are much like Texas weather—unpredictable and liable to change in a heartbeat. They will not stand still for any bettor. As of March 31, Duke’s the favorite, but don’t kid yourself. A Broome injury update or a Cooper Flagg cold streak could turn the numbers on their head from minute to minute. Where’s the money flowing? Read on to find out!
FYI: The odds below are all sourced from the top sportsbooks—we trawled DraftKings, BetMGM, and FanDuel for the latest odds (March 31, 2025) and will adjust them when any new data is available!
Matchup 1 Odds (April 5): Florida Gators vs. Auburn Tigers
- Spread: Florida -2.5 (-110) | Auburn +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Florida -142 | Auburn +120
- Total: 164.5
Auburn’s odds dropped after Broome’s injury, but their three-point barrage could still upset Florida’s leaky defense.
Matchup 2 Odds (April 5): Duke Blue Devils vs. Houston Cougars
- Spread: Duke -4.5 (-115) | Houston +4.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Duke -205 | Houston +170
- Total: 136.5
Houston’s defense vs. Duke’s star power. The total shows a possible slugfest, and Duke’s three-point shooting will decide this game.
National Championship Odds
- Duke: -110 (52.4% implied probability)
- Florida: +300
- Houston: +400
- Auburn: +500
Trends
Duke Blue Devils
- Then: +250 to win the title after a squeaker Sweet 16 win over Alabama.
- Now: -110 favorites after Cooper Flagg’s 28-point, 12-rebound Elite Eight masterclass.
- Why: A $500,000 bet on Duke at +350 post-Elite Eight shifted public momentum.
Florida Gators
- Then: +800 after escaping Purdue in the Sweet 16.
- Now: +300 after Jeremy Jenkins’ 32-point UConn takedown.
- Why: 68% of BetMGM’s moneyline bets flooded Florida after their Elite Eight upset.
Houston Cougars
- Then: +600 after a methodical win over Kansas in the Sweet 16.
- Now: +400 despite being underdogs to Duke.
- Why: Sharps love their defense, and 14% of title bets at DraftKings are on Houston.
Auburn Tigers
- Then: +1200 after surviving Arizona in OT.
- Now: +500 despite Johni Broome’s elbow injury.
- Why: Public optimism from their 21-2 run vs. Kentucky, but sharp money faded them post-injury.
Main Factors Influencing the Odds
When you bet on the Final Four, you shouldn’t be making rando guesses! You should be doing forensic analysis. Injuries, coaching, and ref tendencies all play a role. What are the X-factors that Vegas isn’t shouting from the top of the Bellagio?
– The Blue Devils: They shot only 31% from three in the tournament, ranking 68th nationally. Their reliance on Cooper Flagg’s inside scoring could backfire against Houston’s defense, which holds opponents to 28% from beyond the arc (1st in the nation).
– Florida’s Track Meet Offense: The Gators average 84.2 PPG (4th nationally) and play at the hands-down fastest pace in the Final Four. But their defense allows 74.1 PPG (48th), which is a big concern when they’re pitted against Auburn’s three-point barrage (38% as a team).
– Houston’s Defensive Stranglehold: The Cougars lead the nation in defensive efficiency, and they only allowed 58.3 PPG. They’ve held tournament opponents to 38% shooting, including a 15-point rout of Kansas where they forced 18 turnovers.
– Auburn’s Jekyll-and-Hyde Shooting: The Tigers shoot 38% from three but went ice-cold in losses to Kentucky (5-for-22) and Florida (8-for-24). If Broome’s injury limits their inside game, their live-or-die-by-the-three approach could fall apart.
– Cooper Flagg (Duke) vs. Jamal Shead (Houston): Flagg’s versatility (20.1 PPG, 9.4 RPG) clashes with Shead’s lockdown defense (4.1 steals per game). If Shead can contain Flagg early on, Duke’s wobbly three-point shooters will need to step up, but it’s still a risky bet.
– Jeremy Jenkins (Florida) vs. Aden Holloway (Auburn): Jenkins’ speed (6.9 APG) faces Holloway, Auburn’s pesky on-ball defender (2.3 steals per game). If Holloway disrupts Florida’s transition game, Auburn’s +2.5 spread becomes a legit steal.
– Johni Broome (Auburn) vs. Florida’s Small-Ball Lineup: Broome’s paint dominance (11.2 RPG) could exploit Florida’s lack of size. But if his elbow injury slows him down, Florida’s guards will run wild—again.
– Jon Scheyer (Duke): In his second Final Four, Scheyer’s youth (37 years old) contrasts with his ability to be eerily calm under a lot of pressure. But his in-game adjustments (like switching to a zone against Tennessee) have been hit-or-miss.
– Kelvin Sampson (Houston): A veteran of 7 Final Fours, Sampson’s defensive schemes are nothing short of legendary. His ability to slow down stars (like Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson, held to 12 points) gives Houston a big tactical advantage.
– Todd Golden (Florida): The 39-year-old rising star has Florida playing fearless, but this is his first Final Four. His move fast and break things system works until it stops working (like their 90-81 loss to Auburn in February).
– Bruce Pearl (Auburn): Pearl’s 2019 Final Four run proves that he can and does thrive in the chaos. But his “let it fly” three-point philosophy is dangerous—Auburn’s 38% shooting looks great until they go 5-for-22.
– Johni Broome’s Elbow: Auburn’s star center is playing through a hyperextended elbow, which limited him to 28 minutes against Kentucky. If he can’t bang in the post, Auburn’s offense turns into a one-dimensional thing.
– Florida’s Thin Bench: The Gators’ starters log heavy minutes (4 players averaging 30+ MPG). After five games in 19 days, their super-fast pace could backfire if their legs start to flag in the second half.
– Houston’s Iron Men: Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer have played 37+ minutes per game in the tournament. Houston’s physical style demands stamina—will they hit a wall against Duke’s fresh legs?
– Duke’s Clean Bill of Health: Cooper Flagg’s ankle is healed up, and Duke’s rotation runs 10 deep. Their freshness could give them a surge in the final minutes, and that’s a hidden advantage for all of you late-game bettors out there.
Betting Predictions and Picks
It’s time to put your money where your bracket is! The following picks aren’t hunches, they’re all calculated risks that are backed up by trends. Let’s get into all of the plays.
Matchup 1: Florida Gators vs. Auburn Tigers
- Prediction: Florida’s high-octane offense exploits Auburn’s injury woes and defensive gaps for a narrow win.
- Best Bet: Florida -2.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110)
- Reasoning:
- Florida defeated Auburn 90-81 in their regular-season matchup, shooting 39.4% from three and dominating fast breaks (14-3 edge).
- Auburn’s star center Johni Broome is battling an elbow injury, limiting his mobility and defensive impact (25 pts, 14 reb in Elite Eight but struggled late).
- The Gators average 84.2 PPG (4th nationally) and rank 10th in three-point shooting (38%), while Auburn’s defense allows 74.1 PPG (48th).
- The total (161.5) is inflated compared to their prior meeting (171 points), but Houston’s defensive grind in the other semifinal could slow down the pace league-wide.
Matchup 2: Duke Blue Devils vs. Houston Cougars
- Prediction: Houston’s suffocating defense stifles Duke’s shakier shooters in a low-scoring battle.
- Best Bet: Under 136.5 (-110) | Houston +4.5 (-105)
- Reasoning:
- Houston leads the nation in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 58.3 PPG and 28% from three. Duke shoots just 31% from deep in the tournament, relying really heavily on Cooper Flagg’s interior scoring.
- The Cougars forced 18 turnovers against Kansas in the Elite Eight, exploiting Duke’s occasional sloppy ball-handling (12 turnovers per game).
- Duke’s defense (2nd nationally) matches Houston’s physicality, but Houston coach Kelvin Sampson (7 Final Fours) outpaces Duke’s Jon Scheyer in big-game adjustments.
Best Betting Strategies for the Final Four
The Final Four isn’t for amateurs or the faint of heart. If you’re hedging a futures ticket or chasing live bets, how you strategize your wagers separates the sharps from the suckers. Want to play it smart? Follow the tips below!
Live Betting Tips
- Opportunity 1: If Auburn starts hot (e.g., hitting 3+ threes in the first 5 minutes), pounce on Florida’s live moneyline odds. The Gators’ depth and pace (4th fastest nationally) let them erase deficits—they’ve come back from 10+ down six times this season.
- Opportunity 2: If Duke struggles early on against Houston’s defense (e.g., Cooper Flagg gets double-teamed), bet the Under 136.5 total. Houston’s slow tempo and Duke’s three-point woes (31% in the tourney) could turn this into a rock fight.
Prop Bets
- Cooper Flagg Over 22.5 Points (-120): Flagg has scored 20+ in 8 straight games, and Houston’s focus on stopping him could force Duke to feed him even more.
- Houston Team Total Under 66.5 (-110): The Cougars average 68 PPG but face Duke’s 2nd-ranked defense. Their offense stalls against elite teams (see: 62 points vs. Kansas).
- Johni Broome Under 9.5 Rebounds (+100): Battling an elbow injury, Broome grabbed just 6 boards in 28 minutes vs. Kentucky. Florida’s small-ball lineup will test his mobility.
Hedging
- If you bet Auburn pre-tourney at +3000: Hedge with Florida’s moneyline (-142) in the semifinal. A $100 bet on Florida secures a $70 profit if they win, offsetting any possible Auburn futures losses.
- If you backed Houston at +800: Place a smaller bet on Duke -110 to win it all. Even a $50 wager will lock in a profit regardless of Monday’s outcome.
Bankroll Management
Don’t lose your head just because it’s March Madness! It doesn’t matter if it’s a once-a-year tournament; you still have to gamble responsibly, and that means bankroll management. Here are some tips for how to do it:
– Live Betting: Limit in-game wagers to 10% of your total bankroll. Even “sure things” like Duke -4.5 can backfire (see: 2023 Purdue).
– Prop Bets: Allocate 5% max to fun plays. That $50 flier on “Auburn Over 12.5 threes” feels less painful when the rest of your budget is safe.
– Walk Away Rule: If you lose 3 bets in a row, close the app. The Final Four isn’t a blackjack table—tilt kills bankrolls faster than a Bruce Pearl press conference.
Final Four Frenzy: Your Bets, Your Glory
Every year, bball fans wait with bated breath for The Final Four to arrive. And that’s because it’s more than a basketball tournament. It’s a wild ride where every single rebound, timeout, and injury report changes the whole betting landscape. Sure, Duke’s Cooper Flagg might be the shining star, but Florida’s speed, Houston’s defense, and Auburn’s resilience are all wild cards that could turn it all on its head.
Are you backing the favorites? Are you thinking outside of the box? Whatever your tactics may be, the smart money isn’t always based on talent alone. Your best bet is to suss out any opportunities before the odds have a chance to catch up.
Fire up those sportsbooks, claim your promos, and get in on all of the madness. History will be happening in San Antonio, and you can bet on it!
Look below for a quick rehash of the Final Four odds, predictions, and the best betting picks:
- Duke’s defense and Flagg’s star power make them the clear favorites (-110).
- Florida’s speed vs. Auburn’s injury woes is the game to watch.
- Houston’s defense could shock Duke, but only if their offense shows up.
Who you got? Tell us your picks and bets in the comments!
Lock in your odds at your favorite sportsbook before it’s too late! And if you want recommendations of where to place your bets, find our list of the top betting apps here.
The bball court is calling, so what are you waiting for? You could be cashing in on the 2025 Final Four!
