Kentucky Derby 2024 Predictions: The Top Contenders

Churchill Downs Racecourse - Kentucky Derby Logo

Churchill Downs will be packed out this Saturday, May 4, for the running of the Kentucky Derby, the third and final leg of the Triple Crown. Who’s expected to win the title this year? We’ll highlight the top three contenders to take it all at this year’s Kentucky Derby and show you how to easily place your race wagers online. Grab a mint julep and a hot brown, and we’ll dive into the horses you’ll want to watch as you place your 2024 Kentucky Derby bets!

Where Can I Watch the Kentucky Derby?

If you are unsure when the 150th Kentucky Derby takes place or how to view it from home, here are your options. If you don’t want to miss any event coverage, we recommend tuning in around 2:30 p.m. (EST) for all the pre-race commentary and preparations.

  • Date: May 4, 2024 (Saturday)
  • Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
  • Coverage Start Time: 2:30 p.m. (EST)
  • Post Time: 6:57 p.m. (EST)
  • Cable TV: NBC
  • Streaming: YouTube TV, Peacock, fuboTV

Fierceness – The Odds on Favorite to Win

Fierceness Horses

Fierceness is the odds-on favorite to win the Kentucky Derby with odds of 5-2. It’s important to remember that the favorite hasn’t won the race since 2018, and there are twenty horses on the field this year, meaning that the heavily favored horse still gets a run their money. However, Fierceness will be the first to crush this new expectation in six years.

Fierceness is a three-year-old colt that has only been competing for two years: 2023 and 2024. He has raced at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita, Aqueduct, and Saratoga. Fierceness currently holds a record of 3-0-1 in five starts and has gained 136 points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby, which puts him at No. 2. He won his last race on March 30 during the Florida Derby, where he reached a top speed of 107 mph. His Equibase Speed Score is 110 mph, which gives him a likely shot at winning it Saturday.

Fast Facts

  • Age: 3 years old
  • Owner: Repole Stable
  • Trainer: Todd Pletcher
  • Jockey: John R. Vlazquez
  • Bred: Repole Stable in Kentucky
  • Pedigree: City of Light—Nonna Bella by Stay Thirsty
  • Equibase Speed Score: 110 mph

Fierceness’ Past Five Performances

Let’s look at his past performances to understand how Fiercness has been running over the past six months or more. He’s had three wins since August 2023 and performs best on muddy and fast dirt tracks.

2024 Florida Derby

Date

03/30/24

Finish

1st Place

Speed

107

Track

Gulfstream Park

Distance

1 1/8 M

Surface

Dirt-Fast

1st Place

Fierceness (107)

2nd Place

Catalytic (90)

3rd Place

Grand Mo the First (87)

Time

1:48:22

2024 Holy Bull

Date

02/03/24

Finish

3rd Place

Speed

94

Track

Gulfstream Park

Distance

1 1/16 M

Surface

Dirt-Fast

1st Place

Hades (97)

2nd Place

Domestic Product (94)

3rd Place

Fierceness (94)

Time

1:46:07

2023 Breeders Cup Juvenile

Date

11/03/23

Finish

1st Place

Speed

106

Track

Santa Anita Park

Distance

1 1/16 M

Surface

Dirt-Fast

1st Place

Fierceness (106)

2nd Place

Muth (97)

3rd Place

Locked (96)

Time

1:41:9

Champagne S.

Date

10/07/23

Finish

7th Place

Speed

69

Track

Belmont at Big A

Distance

1 M

Surface

Dirt

1st Place

Timberlake (98)

2nd Place

General Partner (92)

3rd Place

Dancing Groom (83)

Time

1:35:9

Saratoga MSW

Date

08/25/23

Finish

1st Place

Speed

103

Track

Saratoga Race Course

Distance

6 F

Surface

Dirt-Muddy

1st Place

Fierceness (103)

2nd Place

Air of Defiance (80)

3rd Place

Billal (80)

Time

1:09:56

Sierra Leone – Top Contender to Upset a Fierceness Victory

Sierra Leone Horse

Sierra Leone is a three-year-old colt with 3-1 odds of winning the 2024 Kentucky Derby this Saturday at Churchill Downs. He has run at Keeneland, Fair Grounds, and Aqueduct. He won the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and the 2024 Risen Star (G2).

Though Fierceness is the odds-on-favorite to win the 150th Kentucky Derby, many say Sierra Leone is the next likely contender for the title.

Sierra Leone has a far more consistent performance record, coming in first place three times and second place once. Stack that against Fierceness, who won three races but also placed 3rd in the 2024 Holy Bull and 7th at Champagne S.

Fast Facts

  • Age: 3 years old
  • Owner: Brant, Peter M., Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael, Smith, Derrick, Westerberg and Smith, Brook T.
  • Trainer: Chad C. Brown
  • Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
  • Bred: Debby M. Oxley in Kentucky
  • Pedigree: Gun Runner—Heavenly Love by Malibu Moon
  • Equibase Speed Score: 107 mph

Sierra Leone’s Past Four Performances

As mentioned earlier, Sierra Leone is a more consistent winner than Fierceness, consistently placing somewhere at the top of the pack. Judging by past performance, we can see Sierra Leone holding his own against Fierceness and possibly winning Saturday’s race.

2024 Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

Date

04/06/24

Finish

1st Place

Speed

103

Track

Keeneland

Distance

1 1/8 M

Surface

Dirt-Fast

1st Place

Sierra Leone (103)

2nd Place

Just a Touch (101)

3rd Place

Epic Ride (96)

Time

1:50:08

2024 Risen Star

Date

02/17/24

Finish

1st Place

Speed

93

Track

Fair Grounds

Distance

1 1/16 M

Surface

Dirt

1st Place

Sierra Leone (93)

2nd Place

Track Phantom (93)

3rd Place

Catching Freedom (91)

Time

1:52:13

2023 Remsen (G2)

Date

12/02/23

Finish

2nd Place

Speed

99

Track

Aqueduct

Distance

1 1/8 M

Surface

Dirt-Muddy

1st Place

Dornoch (98)

2nd Place

Sierra Leone (99)

3rd Place

Drum Roll Please (92)

Time

1:50:3

AQU MSW (11/04/2023-R7)

Date

11/04/23

Finish

1st Place

Speed

85

Track

Aqueduct

Distance

1 M

Surface

Dirt-Fast

1st Place

Sierra Leone (85)

2nd Place

Change of Command (81)

3rd Place

Ignite the Light (82)

Time

1:36:94

Catching Freedom – A Longshot That’s Building Momentum

Catching Freedom Horse

The oddsmakers are giving Catching Freedom 8-1 odds of winning the Kentucky Derby this Saturday, placing him behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone. The key thing with Catching Freedom is that he has slowly built momentum over his five career races, three of which he has won. His Equibase Speed Score has gone from 83 in October 2023 to 95 in March 2024.

Catching Freedom is still a longshot to win on Saturday, considering Fierncess and Sierra Leone are running with Equibase Speed Scores of 110 and 107 mph, respectively. But there is something to be said for building momentum. At this point, we don’t see Catching Freedom plateauing in performance. Still, his victory at Churchill Downs would hinge on the other two competitors losing steam after their respective career performances.

Fast Facts

  • Age: 3 years old
  • Owner: Albaugh Family Stables LLC
  • Trainer: Brad H. Cox
  • Jockey: Flavien Pratt
  • Bred: WinStar War LLC in Kentucky
  • Pedigree: Constitution—Catch My Drift by Pioneer of the Nile
  • Equibase Speed Score: 95 mph

Catching Freedom’s Past Five Performances

Catching Freedom has placed no worse than 4th in any of the races he’s run over his career. At the same time, Fierceness placed a weak 7th at Champagne S. in October 2023. It’s hard to tell which will win at the end of the day: higher average speed or past performance records. If speed wins it, you’ll want to be on Fierceness. If you’re banking on a weak performance, you might bet on a Catching Freedom win due to his stronger finish over his career.

2024 Louisiana Derby (G2)

Date

03/23/24

Finish

1st Place

Speed

95

Track

Fair Grounds

Distance

1 3/16 M

Surface

Dirt-Fast

1st Place

Catching Freedom (95)

2nd Place

Honor Marie (94)

3rd Place

Tuscan Gold (93)

Time

1:56:16

2024 Risen Star (G2)

Date

02/17/24

Finish

3rd Place

Speed

91

Track

Fair Grounds

Distance

1 1/8 M

Surface

Dirt

1st Place

Sierra Leone (93)

2nd Place

Track Phantom (93)

3rd Place

Catching Freedom (91)

Time

1:52:13

2024 Smarty Jones (LS)

Date

01/01/24

Finish

1st Place

Speed

106

Track

Oaklawn Park

Distance

1 1/16 M

Surface

Dirt-Fast

1st Place

Catching Freedom (106)

2nd Place

Just Steel

3rd Place

Informed Patriot

Time

1:44:59

Alwoc

Date

11/09/23

Finish

4th Place

Speed

88

Track

Churchill Downs

Distance

1 1/16 M

Surface

Dirt-Fast

1st Place

Parchment Party (92)

2nd Place

First World War (89)

3rd Place

Lagynos (88)

Time

1:44:24

Churchill Downs MSW

Date

10/01/23

Finish

1st Place

Speed

83

Track

Churchill Downs

Distance

1 M

Surface

Dirt-Fast

1st Place

Catching Freedom (83)

2nd Place

Cash Only (78)

3rd Place

Planet (75)

Time

1:36:58

Who Will Win?

We will go on a limb and say that Sierra Leone will reign victorious at the 150th Kentucky Derby.

Why Sierra Leone?

Well, here are a few things we considered in setting up our official predictions:

  • The odds-on-favorite to win hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since 2018. Who’s the favorite to win this year? Fierceness.
  • Sierra Leone has won three races and placed 2nd, while Fierceness has won two races and placed 3rd and 7th in two others. Sierra Leone has the better track record.
  • Sierra Leone’s Equibase Speed Score is 107, not far behind Fierceness’ score of 110. In Fierceness’ last race in March, he reached a top speed of 107. So, if he has a weak performance at Churchill Downs, Sierra Leone would be in the running to win the Derby!

Betting on Sierra Leone has a better payout than betting on the favorite Fierceness. Odds of 5-2 for a $2.00 wager would result in $7.00 in profit, while odds of 3-1 for a $2.00 wager would result in $8.00 in profit. Sierra Leone has a likely shot to win on Saturday, and you could rake in some extra profit by going out on a limb and betting against the favorite.

Matthew Buchanan
Matthew Buchanan

Matthew specializes in writing our gambling app review content, spending days testing out sportsbooks and online casinos to get intimate with these platforms and what they offer. He’s also a blog contributor, creating guides on increasing your odds of winning against the house by playing table games, managing your bankroll responsibly, and choosing the slot machines with the best return-to-player rates.