FC Cincinnati vs. Guadalajara Match Preview & Prediction (August 7, 2025)

It’s do or die for FC Cincinnati when they play Chivas Guadalajara at TQL Stadium. Unless they win? They won’t make it to the Leagues Cup 2025 Quarterfinals.

Unfortunately for Chivas, they’ve already been eliminated, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that they’re one of Mexico’s most successful clubs.

They’re still excited to play Cincinnati and will give it their all; they want to see how they fare against one of the biggest clubs.

FC Cincinnati goes into this matchup with four points after beating CF Monterrey and falling to FC Juárez in penalties. They’re still alive in the MLS standings, but the way the group has played out? They’ll probably need to hit the seven-point mark to move on.

Do we think Cincinnati will make it to the quarterfinals? Keep scrolling to read tourney context, group implications, the current betting odds, team form, performance, our picks for your best bets, and some prop angles!

Match Details

  • Matchup: FC Cincinnati vs. Chivas Guadalajara
  • Date & Time: Thursday, August 7, at 7:00 pm ET / 4:00 pm PT
  • Location: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
  • How to Watch: Apple TV MLS Season Pass, Univision, and TUDN

Tournament Context & Group Implications

The Leagues Cup group stage includes three teams per group: two MLS, one Liga MX, and the top two will advance.

  • Cincinnati’s Position: After earning four points during their first two matches, Cincinnati can get a spot in the quarterfinals with a regulation win.
  • Chivas’ Status: They were eliminated after their loss to Charlotte and have no chance to advance.
  • What It Means: Only one side has something to lose here, so Cincinnati will push for control from the jump. Chivas could rotate or take more risks than they normally would because there’s no tournament pressure.

Live Betting Odds

Ready to place your bets? Look below for the latest odds and lines courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline (3-way)

  • Cincinnati -140
  • Draw +275
  • Guadalajara +330

BTTS

  • Yes -190
  • No +150

Over/Under

  • Over 2.5 (-180)
  • Under 2.5 (+140)

Odds can shift right up to tipoff, so double-check them before locking in your bet—then back your picks with the best sports betting tools to stay ahead.

Notable Props

  • Cincinnati to Score First: –155
  • Luciano Acosta Anytime Goalscorer: +190
  • Draw No Bet – Cincinnati: –190 (this is a less risky alternative to full moneyline)

Team Form & Recent Performance

Cincinnati still has something to play for, and Chivas doesn’t, and that will definitely factor into how both clubs go at this one, particularly in midfield control and lineup choices!

FC Cincinnati Logo

FC Cincinnati (MLS)

  • Leagues Cup Record: 1 draw (penalty loss), 1 win – 4 points total
  • Home Form: 5-match unbeaten run at TQL Stadium

Tactical Breakdown

  • Cincinnati operates in a 3-4-1-2 with wingbacks pushed high and Acosta drifting centrally to overload the middle.
  • Main transitions come from quick vertical passes through the half-spaces, and Barreal and Acosta link up regularly on the left.
  • Miazga and Falcón are central to defending set plays and initiating switches.

Key Player

  • Luciano Acosta: He plays between opposition lines and drags midfielders out with movement. First touch and passing tempo keep Cincinnati’s buildup fluid. Acosta is also first in line for penalties and free kicks just outside the box.
C.D. Guadalajara Logo

Guadalajara (Liga MX)

  • Leagues Cup Status: Eliminated after loss to Charlotte FC
  • Recent Form (all comps): 1 win in last 6; defense has allowed 10 goals in that span

Tactical Breakdown

  • Chivas usually sets up in a narrow 4-3-3, which leaves gaps open when wingbacks push up.
  • They lack vertical progression in midfield and rely too heavily on short side-to-side movement without penetration.
  • They struggle when the pressure turns up; turnovers in their own half have led to multiple goals against this season.

Key Player

  • Roberto Alvarado: He drops into central channels to find the ball but isn’t getting into goal-scoring areas that often. He can thread a final pass if he’s allowed the space, but is too frequently forced backward.

Game Play & Betting Angles

Cincinnati needs to get all three points, and Chivas doesn’t, so expect to see one team press hard and the other absorb.

Why We Expect Goals

  • Cincinnati’s home matches average nearly 3 goals, and they push forward with volume, particularly when they need a result.
  • Chivas has been weak on the road; they have given up 3+ in two of their last three away games.
  • Since there is no reason to play conservatively, expect direct play and space to open up as the match progresses.

Tactical Breakdown

  • Cincinnati will press early and force the issue, looking to create overloads down the wings and isolate Acosta in central pockets.
  • Chivas might try to sit compact and frustrate Cincinnati, but without progression through midfield? They’ll probably get pinned back.
  • If Cincinnati scores first, they’re in a position to dictate the tempo and create additional chances, and Guadalajara will have no choice but to open up.

Our Best Bets

Okay, Cincinnati needs this win, but Chivas has nothing to lose (except a little pride), so we think both sides will come out hard and fast. And where’s the value in that? We’ve got three bets that are worth a look!

BetConfidence LevelWhy Do We Like It?

Over 2.5 (-180)

High

The match setup favors an open second half and multiple finishes.

Both Teams to Score – Yes (-190)

Medium

Chivas will commit numbers forward, even if exposed at the back.

FC Cincinnati to Score First (-155)

Medium

They tend to start fast at home and should control the early phases.

Risk Factors & Betting Strategy

If you’re betting, keep the following in mind before you place your wagers!

  • Lineup Watch: If Cincinnati rotates its main starters, BTTS comes with more risk.
  • Market Movement: Monitor the odds in the final hour before the game begins; late changes could hint at expected tactics or lineup leaks.
  • Safer Angle: Cincinnati Draw No Bet is the more cautious play if you’re unsure about the margin.
  • SGP Option: Build a Same Game Parlay with Over 2.5 goals + Both Teams to Score + Acosta to score for plus-value if you want to be a little more aggressive.

Why Cincinnati Should Nab All 3 Points

Final Score Prediction: FC Cincinnati 3 – 1 Guadalajara (Chivas)

Cincinnati has one job, and it’s to win against a Chivas squad that’s probably packing for the trip home as we speak.

Acosta’s in total control, they’re playing in front of a packed home crowd, and Chivas doesn’t have any reason to play it safe. If Guadalajara pushes forward, they’ll leave a lot of gaps, and that’s Cincinnati’s chance to exploit.

If the FCC plays with urgency from the jump, and we think they will, this matchup favors them in just about every way possible. The home side has the advantage in intensity, stakes, and setup, and that’s why we are going with Cincinnati!

Best Bets Recap

  • Over 2.5 Total Goals: High confidence
  • Both Teams to Score – Yes: Medium confidence
  • FC Cincinnati to Score First: Medium confidence

Inter Miami CF vs. Pumas UNAM Preview & Prediction (August 6, 2025)

Inter Miami CF and Pumas UNAM wrap up group play in the Leagues Cup on Wednesday at 7 pm ET, and it’s their third and final league-phase matchup that will go down at Chase Stadium in Fort Lauderdale.

A regulation win over Pumas UNAM would secure Inter Miami a place in the Knockout Rounds, with the Quarterfinals scheduled for August 19 or 20.

But here’s the thing: Lionel Messi is out, and that’s no bueno for Miami. If Captain Messi doesn’t return to this tourney, do they still have a shot? On the bright side, Inter Miami overturned Maximiliano Falcon’s red card on appeal, clearing him to start at center-back against Pumas.

Pumas sit in a decent position with five points and will aim to knock off Miami despite missing goalkeeper Keylor Navas. The Costa Rican vet, who signed with the club late last month, was suspended in stoppage time against Atlanta.

Miami has won five in a row, Pumas just beat Atlanta 3-2, and the League Cup knockout is on the line! Who do we think will win this one?

Keep reading to find out all you need to know, including the latest betting odds, projected lineups, recent form, tactical matchup, players to watch, and our choices for the three best bets!

Match Details & Stakes

  • Matchup: Inter Miami CF vs. Pumas UNAM
  • Date & Time: Wednesday, August 6, 7:30 pm ET / 4:30 pm PT
  • Location: Chase Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, FL
  • How to Watch: Streaming live on MLS Season Pass via Apple TV (Spanish commentary is also running on TUDN/Univision) 
  • Stakes: Inter Miami can secure a spot in the Leagues Cup Quarterfinals with a win in regulation. Anything less? It puts their advancement at risk, and their fate will be dependent on other group results and tiebreakers. Pumas has five points, so they can advance with a win or draw, but like we said, they’ll have to do it without suspended goalie Keylor Navas

Betting Odds

If you are gonna put some cash on this game, look below for the current betting odds and lines via FanDuel:

Moneyline (3-way)

  • Inter Miami -105
  • Draw +260
  • Pumas +260

BTTS

  • Yes -196
  • No +152

Over/Under

  • Over 2.5 (-188)
  • Under 2.5 (+142)
  • Inter Miami Anytime Goalscorer – Luis Suárez: –150, and first scorer options start at +290

Just rememberodds can shift as tip-off approaches, so always double-check the latest lines before placing your wager.

Projected Lineups & Team News

Both clubs will hit the field with big absences, and that’ll mean necessary tactical changes!

Inter Miami CF Logo

Inter Miami CF

  • Out: Lionel Messi (muscle issue) is sidelined again after missing the last fixture.
  • Back in: Maxi Falcón is back in business after his red card was overturned.
  • Expected XI: Callender (GK); Alba, Kryvtsov, Falcón, Yedlin; Busquets, De Paul, Taylor; Suárez, Gressel, Campana.
  • Notes: Martino is expected to rely on midfield organization and tempo control, and Suárez will most likely drop deeper in possession phases.
Pumas UNAM Logo

Pumas UNAM

  • Out: Keylor Navas is suspended after last match’s ejection, and Julio González is expected to start in the net.
  • Expected XI: González (GK); Aldrete, Galindo, Huerta; Salvio, Molina, Ruvalcaba, Del Prete; Dinenno.
  • Notes: Pumas are likely to stress transitional play and front-foot pressure, but the middle third could be a soft spot without Navas marshalling from the back and no real anchor in midfield.

Recent Form & Statistical Breakdown

Okay, how have Inter Miami and Pumas UNAM been playing so far? And what are the stats? We’ve got them below:

Inter Miami
  • Miami is undefeated in its last 5 games.
  • They’ve scored 2+ goals in 4 consecutive Leagues Cup games.
  • 11 goals have been scored during their last 5 games.
Pumas UNAM
  • They won their match against Atlanta 3-2 in their last Leagues Cup game.
  • Pumas’ defense has conceded 2+ in 4 of the last 6 matches.
  • The team’s attack is helmed by Dinenno and Salvio, who are averaging 1.8 goals per match.
Main Stats
  • Both Teams to Score (BTTS) has landed in 6 of the last 7 matches for each club
  • Inter Miami is unbeaten in their last 5 at home (4 wins, 1 draw)
  • Over 2.5 goals have been hit in 7 consecutive combined matches

Tactical Matchup & Play Style

As for tactical matchups and playing styles, here’s what you’ll get with these two teams:

Inter Miami

  • Without their star player, Messi? We expect to see Busquets and De Paul dictate the match with short passing and midfield control
  • Suárez is still the focal point in the final third, and Gressel and Campana will be on support
  • With Falcón back, Miami could rely on set pieces to break the deadlock

Pumas UNAM

  • They play direct and look to turn defensive wins into fast counterattacks
  • Their high back line could be pressed by Miami’s wide play and diagonal passing
  • Because Pumas is missing Keylor Navas, they’ll need better defensive coordination and strong early communication from González

Will Pumas be able to break through without their veteran goalie in the net? And can Miami control the game without Messi up front?

Players to Watch

There are six players we are watching who will fuel the tempo, spacing, and how chances develop on both sides!

Inter Miami

  • Luis Suárez: He’s a veteran forward who still times his runs really well and takes up solid positions in the box.
  • Sergio Busquets: He controls the match from deep with steady passing and great positional awareness.
  • Telasco Segovia: He brings energy and forward intent, and he’s usually the link between deeper buildup and final-third movement.

Pumas UNAM

  • Juan Dinenno: He is a really physical striker who works defenders hard and can finish from close range or on set pieces.
  • Eduardo Salvio: He’s a creative presence out wide who pulls defenders out of form and delivers early balls in.
  • Jesús Molina: A vet midfield anchor whose positioning and decision-making help Pumas hold their shape under pressure.

Our Best Bets 

We’ve got our sights set on three plays heading into Wednesday’s matchup, and they’re all based on recent form, lineups, and tactical setups!

BetConfidence LevelWhy Do We Like It?

Inter Miami -105

⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)

Miami’s midfield control and squad depth should be enough at home, especially with Pumas missing Navas.

Over 2.5 (-188)

⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)

Both sides create chances and leave space at the back; this matchup leans goal-heavy.

Both Teams to Score – Yes (-196)

⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)

BTTS has landed in 6 of 7 for both clubs. Even with key absences, the matchup profile supports another.

What to Expect from the Match

  • Miami will look to control the tempo early through Busquets and De Paul, and that’ll force Pumas to defend in deeper lines.
  • Because Navas won’t be directing traffic from the back, Pumas could be a lot more vulnerable to Miami’s buildup through the middle.
  • Pumas will rely on quick breaks and width if Miami overcommits in possession.
  • If the hosts strike first? The momentum could shift toward a more open contest with scoring chances for both.
  • It could come down to execution in the final third, and Miami’s experience gives them the advantage here.

Why Miami Will Get It Done

Final Score Prediction: Inter Miami 3 – 1 Pumas UNAM

Why are we backing Inter Miami? Three reasons: they have home-field advantage, better form and midfield control, and a deeper roster, even without their star Lionel Messi.

The defensive foundation will hold, and Suárez still leads a front line that can convert chances.

Sure, Pumas could cause Miami some trouble, but without Navas? They’re exposed when pressed.

That being said, the smarter angle is backing Miami on the moneyline and expecting goals from both teams!

Best Bets Recap

  • Inter Miami ML (–105): ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)
  • Over 2.5 Goals (–188): ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)
  • BTTS – Yes (–196): ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)

Looking to level up your bets? Start by using proven sports betting strategies to identify value, manage your bankroll, and make smarter picks. Once you’re ready to apply what you’ve learned, check our top-rated betting sites known for sharp odds, quick payouts, and dependable service.

Betting on the Weather: The Strangest Legal Wagers in History

What if we told you that you could bet on the weather? I didn’t believe it at first, either. All I could think was, “Man, weather forecasters must be cleaning up if you can bet on if it’s gonna rain or snow.”

Turns out it’s not that simple, or we’d have zero weather forecasters; they’d be billionaires and wouldn’t have to stand in front of a map on the nightly news to give the public the humidity index for the week.

Anyway, back to betting on meteorological wagers. You can bet on the weather, and a whole host of other really odd things. They’re called novelty and prop bets, and they aren’t just a yearly thing that happens at the Super Bowl.

How and why do people make these kinds of weird bets? Because they’re out of the ordinary, and that’s the appeal. There are legal markets that specialize in these off-the-beaten-path wagers, and they’re in the UK and the U.S. markets! 

You can bet on the weather, along with a lot of other absolutely bizarro things, and we’re gonna tell you all about it and how you can get in on the action.

From weird to straight up wacky, let’s find out what the strangest legal wagers in history are.

Yes, You Can Legally Bet on the Weather

People mostly associate betting with sports, but bookmakers have long been offering weather bets as novelty markets. In the UK and Ireland? Weather betting has been around for years. Bookies like Paddy Power, Bet365, and BoyleSports regularly open markets on things like a “white Christmas” or record high or low temperatures.  The UK Met Office defines a white Christmas as a single snowflake observed on December 25 anywhere in the country.  Betting on the weather got super popular  during the COVID-19 shutdown, when offshore sites like Bovada put out daily high/low temperature lines for major U.S. cities.

History of Weather Betting

Betting on the weather is not just a pandemic fad, either: it traces back a decade in Europe. UK bookies have traditionally run White Christmas and similar novelty markets around the holidays. In 2017, Paddy Power and BoyleSports offered odds of 3/1 that Dublin would see snow on Christmas Day.

Snow at Ha'penny Bridge - Dublin

In addition to Christmas, bookmakers have also offered seasonal weather bets, like the hottest/wettest day of the year. In 2020-21, when sports were canceled, U.S.-facing books like Bovada added weather wagers so that bettors could wager on daily high/low temperatures in cities like Las Vegas and Chicago.

But in the U.S., regulators treat weather contracts as financial derivatives, so the mainstream U.S. sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel have pretty much avoided them. Federally regulated outlets like Kalshi stepped into the void, allowing bets on things like daily highs in Philadelphia, PA, or an Arctic ice extent. As of late 2024, Kalshi had seen millions wagered on just a few weather markets; $5.3M was bet on Philadelphia’s high temperature over a few months!

Types of Weather Bets

Where can you find weather bets, and what can you bet on? They’re listed under “specials” or found in novelty bet menus on the books that have them.  The most common types include the following:

  • Snowfall events: “Will it snow in [City] on Christmas Day?” is a perennial market. Bets can be yes/no or over/under on total snowfall.
  • Temperature extremes: Bettors can also wager on the highest or lowest temperatures on a given day or in a given month. This includes “record high/low” bets, like “will today become the hottest day of the year?” Major events sometimes get special props;  William Hill offered 5/1 that the 2025 Wimbledon final would exceed the tournament’s existing record 35.7 °C.  Sports bettors can also find odds on game-time temperatures; FanDuel offered Super Bowl kickoff temperature ranges in Celsius.
  • Precipitation totals: Markets also let you bet on total rainfall or snowfall over a period or during an event.  Bettors can play an over/under on the month’s total rain vs. a book’s line. Special event rainfall, like “will it rain during the Kentucky Derby?” is also sometimes on offer.
  • Novelty extremes: Bookmakers like Paddy Power have made headlines with wild weather bets, like 100/1 that the Thames river would freeze over between Westminster and Tower Bridge, or that London’s Big Ben would stop chiming because of ice. Others include bets on hurricane landfalls, tornado counts, or wagers on the global average temperature in a given month.

Real-World Examples of Weather Betting

  • A White Christmas in the UK: Every winter, the big UK bookmakers quote odds on a white Christmas. The odds vary by location; a recent forecast put London’s odds at only about 9/1 (≈10%), whereas typically colder northern cities have shorter odds.  Paddy Power once paid out its white-Christmas bets early in Dublin when a snowfall looked likely. In general, the pools are small, but millions have been wagered nationwide on white Christmas markets.
  • Sports and Major Event Prop Bets: Weather betting usually ties into big events. As we said above, in this year’s Wimbledon finals, William Hill ran a market on whether that year’s final would break the all-time heat record.  Similarly, during Super Bowl LIX, online sportsbooks listed over/under brackets for the kickoff temperature in Toronto. Even if sports sites haven’t fully integrated it, traders on Kalshi bet heavily on the weather the day of big games: when the Philadelphia Eagles made the NFL playoffs, Kalshi saw $5.3 million in trading volume on Philadelphia’s daily high temperature.
  • Odds on Record Highs: Weather history is a popular target, too! Bookies let you wager on if records will fall; before a heatwave, you can bet that a new monthly or all-time temperature record will be set. In late 2024, bettors watched Ireland’s summer heat: Paddy Power suspended its market on Ireland’s record high because so many bets were pouring in.

Why Do People Bet on the Weather?

Like we said, it’s fun! A lot of people see it as a light-hearted diversion when no big sports are airing. It taps into the same obsession people have with forecasts and small talk. Some bettors are also motivated by real-world considerations: farmers and energy companies might use weather bets to offset financial risk from extreme weather, which is a kind of informal hedge.

Odds for weather bets are set much like any other proposition. Bookmakers analyze meteorological forecasts and convert them into probabilities. They might estimate the chance of snow based on climate models, then “add a little extra” margin to ensure they make a profit. As weather patterns evolve, the odds move. Early-season White Christmas odds might be long, but if a December cold snap is coming, a book will shorten those odds, which will lower the payout on snow.

And betting exchanges work in a similar manner: the Kalshi market is literally a prediction market, so bettors drive the odds. On a cold day in Philadelphia, the chance of a 0–5 °C high fell from 47% to 25% in minutes as new data came in, and that changed the potential payoff for each wager.

In all cases, weather bets are games of probability with no chance of outside manipulation; there are no match-fixing or insider concerns in meteorological outcomes. Gamblers who study climate history and forecasts can make informed picks, just as they would in sports. Ultimately, “mother nature” decides the result, and the house profiting is inevitable, as bookmakers always build in a margin, just like they do in any other betting market.

The Weirdest Legal Bets Ever Made

You can bet on who will win the Super Bowl, who hits a home run, or what team covers the spread. That’s standard betting fare. But there are gamblers who want to bet outside of the box. Like on the name of a royal baby. Or which celebrity will die next? And, of course, if E.T. will come to planet Earth.

All of the above bets? They exist. They’re called novelty wagers, and they are absurd and legally sanctioned. And bookmakers in the UK have been more than happy to take money on things that sound like they were born from a conspiracy theory, and the U.S. isn’t far behind.

Want to hear some of the most ridiculous legal bets that were ever made? We do too!

Royal Baby Name Bets

When Kate Middleton got pregnant, the UK sportsbooks went absolutely feral. Betting shops were flooded with names like “Arthur,” “Diana,” “Alice,” and, because someone always has to be a troll, “Kanye.”

In 2013, George was the winning ticket, paying out at 2/1. When Princess Charlotte arrived in 2015, the name saw odds around 3/1, and “Diana” was a heavy sentimental favorite around 5/1. But bookies still posted long shots like “Chardonnay” (100/1), “Elvis” (250/1), and “Wayne” (500/1), just in case someone got drunk and nostalgic for The X Factor.

When Meghan and Harry had Archie, punters threw down bets on everything from “Alfred” to “Spencer.” At one point, “Diana” came back as a favorite again, even though the child was a boy.

When Archie arrived in May 2019? A lucky UK bettor hit the jackpot. Their single bet on “Archie” paid out £18,000, which is around $23,300 USD!

Alien Life Bets: Beam Me Up, Bookmaker

People have actually bet, and done so legally, on if we’ll find aliens. Not just someone somewhere thinking that aliens-do-exist-bets, but by-this-date-we-will-confirm-extraterrestrial-life bets.

In the 1960s, a pair of scientists, Michael Hart and Frank Drake, famously wagered that extraterrestrial life would be discovered before 2000. That bet did not cash out.

More recently, bookies like Paddy Power have posted odds on things like the following:

  • Alien life confirmed by NASA before 2025 (50/1)
  • The U.S. government confirming alien contact (100/1)
  • A UFO landing at the White House before 2030 (odds were removed when QAnon got involved)

The closest people came to a payout was in 2020, when the Pentagon officially declassified UFO footage and the internet lost its collective mind. Alas, “weird aerial stuff” is not the same as “confirmed intelligent life.” Back to Earth, people!

Celebrity Dead Pools: The Morbid Legal Market

This one exists, though it’s kinda controversial, and it’s not always sportsbook-sanctioned. Dead pools are usually run privately, but there are some fringe online platforms and forums that have turned it into a real betting structure. The format? You choose a list of celebrities. If one kicks the bucket, you score points. If multiple die in a short span, you win big.

Morbid? Yep. Legal? In certain forms, yes, when it’s structured like fantasy football and there’s no bookie profiting. In the UK, traditional bookies have steered clear of taking actual money on it after facing public backlash. That said, novelty odds have been posted in the past on things like:

  • Which old-school rocker might be “next”
  • If a certain royal would outlive a Hollywood legend
  • Odds on who’d be written out of EastEnders via funeral storyline
Political Prop Bets: Will the Prez Say It?

Betting on politics is one thing: there are elections, party control, approval ratings. But novelty political bets? They kick it up several notches. Here are a few examples that have shown up on legal UK sportsbooks and offshore platforms:

  • Will the U.S. president say “climate change” during the State of the Union?
  • Will Trump tweet more than 20 times on a given day?
  • Will a world leader be seen shirtless in a calendar year? This was mostly a Putin special; RIP to that meme market.

And during the 2020 U.S. election season, you could also bet on:

  • Which color tie would Biden wear during the debates
  • If a fly would land on a candidate (thanks for that, Mike Pence)
  • If someone would say “fake news” on live TV

They aren’t exactly high-stakes wagers, but they’re real, and they attract bettors who are chronically online.

Reality TV and Award Show Bets

Reality TV betting is alive, well, and super competitive. In the UK, legal sportsbooks regularly post odds on these:

  • Who wins The Bachelor, Love Island, and Strictly Come Dancing
  • Who gets the final rose or gets voted off next
  • If a contestant cries in a hot tub (I love this one so much)

And awards show prop bets have turned into a booming novelty market. For the Oscars, you can bet on these things:

  • Odds on Best Picture, Best Actor/Actress (because, of course)
  • The length of acceptance speeches (Over/Under 45 seconds is a popular line)
  • If someone trips walking up those stairs
  • Which political cause will be name-dropped first during the show

UK bookies like Ladbrokes and William Hill treat Love Island like it’s the Champions League. There are matchups, outright winner markets, and prop bets on “first breakup after the villa.”

Betting Markets Love the Absurd

No one’s betting their mortgage on if the next Pope will be named Urban or if Bigfoot turns up in Seattle, but that’s not the point. Novelty bets aren’t there to drive serious volume; they’re there to get attention. Bookmakers figured out a long time ago that the weirder the bet, the faster it spreads. Doesn’t matter if it’s “Will aliens be confirmed by NASA?” or “Who’ll cry first on Love Island?” absurd bets do just what they’re supposed to do: invite curiosity, make headlines, and get casual onlookers to click. They’re bait, and they’re great bait!

Engagement First, Logic Second

Novelty wagers serve one purpose above all else, and that’s visibility. Sportsbooks use them to pull in bettors who wouldn’t touch a spread or total but would absolutely throw £5 on whether the Queen will wear green to Ascot. The bets aren’t serious, and they’re not supposed to be. They’re frictionless engagement; easy to understand, easy to talk about, and for some, too tempting to ignore.

During slow sports months or off-season lulls, novelty bets prop up the content machine. A well-timed odds board for something like the next James Bond actor can keep a sportsbook trending for days. You’ll see the odds reposted by blogs, embedded in entertainment stories, and argued over by people who have never placed a bet in their lives.

The PR Stunt Masquerading as a Market

Bookmakers love press, and novelty bets are PR gold. Odds on a royal baby name? Free front-page coverage. A market on if Elon Musk will fight with his bestie, Trump, again? It’ll be quoted in a dozen tech blogs within an hour.

Most of the markets aren’t built for profit; they’re built to go viral. The trick is that once someone’s on the sportsbook looking at novelty odds, they’re that much closer to betting on something real. They aren’t gimmicks, they’re acquisition tools. Sure, they look silly on the surface, but they’re strategic.

Paddy Power pretty much wrote the playbook on this. Their history of outlandish bets, like odds on whether Trump would tweet during a UN speech or if Simon Cowell would cry (again) on The X Factor, kept them in the headlines long after the news cycle moved on. Even if no one bets, people will remember the brand.

The Psychological Pull

Another part of what makes novelty betting addictive is that it scratches the very same itch as trivia night. Everyone thinks that they know something others don’t. It’s a chance to play the insider without having to beat an algorithm or research a sports team.

If you’re a Bachelor fanatic, you’ve watched the edit patterns. You think you can tell who gets the final rose. If you follow pop culture obsessively, you’re convinced you can predict the next celebrity breakup. It’s that voice saying, “I’ve got an edge on this one.” And the novelty market gives you the outlet for it.

Bookmakers know this, and it’s why they keep these odds just plausible enough to feel beatable, and silly enough that losing them doesn’t hurt too much. There’s not a lot at stake, and so what if you just guessed wrong on whether the next Pope would be from Africa?

When It Crosses the Line

Before we go full-on novelty bet endorsers, not all of the weird bets are all in good fun. There’s a very fine line between funny and tasteless, and sportsbooks have put their foot over it more than once. Odds on celebrity relapses, political assassinations, or natural disasters have all caused a fair amount of public uproar. Even though it’s technically legal, some markets do end up getting yanked after complaints.

The issue with these is the tone. Betting on the name of Harry and Meghan’s next kid? Lighthearted. Betting on whether a global pandemic cancels the Olympics again? That starts to get icky.

Same with the markets that are related to major public tragedies; some operators ran markets on things like “next country to leave the EU” after Brexit or “odds of martial law” during the early COVID days. You can guess how that went over.

The Legality of Weirdest Legal Bets

You can bet on whether it’ll snow on Christmas in the UK, but you can’t legally bet on whether Elon Musk will name his next child after a number in most of the U.S. Why not?

Because novelty bets exist in a strange legal limbo; sometimes they’re totally legit, sometimes they’re labeled as too ridiculous, and sometimes they’re pulled after public outcry. The laws that govern these bets vary depending on the location, platform, and how regulators feel about what counts as “sports betting” versus “spectacle.”

Let’s take a look at where these strange bets are legal, where they’re still off-limits, and why some novelty markets get killed before they go live!

Where You Can Legally Bet on Weird Stuff

If you’re in the UK, congrats! You reside in the Disneyland of novelty betting. British sportsbooks like Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Bet365, and Coral have been offering odds on everything from royal baby names to if aliens will be discovered by 2030. Betting on political speeches, reality TV outcomes, and award shows is just another Thursday.

Ireland’s market is similar, and Australia’s is on its heels. Canadian books have recently opened up, too, and legal platforms like Bet99 and NorthStar offer occasional novelty props.

Offshore sportsbooks like Bovada or BetOnline cater to U.S. bettors by skirting local regulations, and they regularly post weird novelty lines: UFO landings, celebrity baby names, and simulated Mars colony dates. If it’s odd enough to go viral, chances are an offshore book has odds on it.

Why Most U.S. Sportsbooks Won’t Touch Novelty Bets (Yet)

Legal U.S. sportsbooks, like DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, etc., have kept novelty bets off the table. The reason is simple: state regulators don’t like gray areas.

Each state’s gaming commission decides what qualifies as a “sports event,” and most novelty bets don’t fit that definition.

  • Betting on who wins The Bachelor? That’s based on a pre-recorded show, which means someone already knows the outcome, and that’s an instant red flag.
  • Political speech props? Too unpredictable and tied to government figures.
  • Celebrity behavior? Morally dicey, at best.

There are exceptions. Some books in states like Colorado or Indiana have petitioned to offer odds on awards shows like the Oscars, but even that required commission approval and super strict oversight.

So for now, unless you’re on a prediction market like Kalshi, which operates under a different regulatory umbrella, novelty bets in the U.S. are in a legal dead zone.

When Strange Bets Cross a Line

Novelty betting is supposed to be harmless fun, but books have crossed into murkier territory before, and they’ll probably do so again.

What are some of the worst examples? These:

  • Odds on celebrity relapses: Several offshore books have taken heat for posting bets on if public figures would enter rehab.
  • Assassination markets: These have shown up (mostly anonymously) on crypto-based prediction platforms, and regulators shut them down STAT.
  • Natural disaster betting: Wagering on the number of hurricane landfalls, or death tolls from global events, has caused serious blowback. Even if technically legal, these markets don’t last for long.
  • Pandemic-related odds: During COVID, some books offered odds on vaccine rollout delays, country-by-country death milestones, and if Olympic athletes would catch the virus mid-Games. Most of those markets were removed after receiving negative press.

As a general rule, if a bet feels exploitative or uses human suffering as a game mechanic, it doesn’t last long. Public outrage gets these markets pulled faster than regulators can react.

And here are some more gross examples of real prop bets that were yanked because of public reaction:

  • “Next Pope” Death Watch Odds (2013, Paddy Power): When Pope Benedict XVI resigned, Paddy Power ran odds on who would become the next Pope. That wasn’t the issue; it was the simultaneous market on “Which public figure will die next?”, which ran adjacent to the papal market and featured prominent names. The Catholic Church and multiple media outlets slammed the juxtaposition as tasteless. Paddy Power pulled the more morbid markets, though not before racking up a week’s worth of free press.
  • Oscar Pistorius “Guilty or Not” Trial Market (2014, multiple offshore books): After the Paralympian was arrested for the shooting death of Reeva Steenkamp, some offshore sportsbooks opened odds on if he’d be found guilty. The public response was immediate and overwhelmingly negative, especially from advocates of domestic violence victims. The books tried to reframe it as a “legal outcome prediction,” but the damage was already done, and the markets were taken down within days.
  • Next Terror Attack Location” (unlisted, 2000s): A rogue novelty bookie (operating out of a now-defunct site) once listed odds on where the “next major terrorist attack” would take place. The market, which included cities like London, New York, and Madrid, was immediately flagged by watchdog groups. It never gained traction in mainstream media but circulated long enough to draw regulatory attention. The site was shut down for unrelated compliance issues shortly after.
  • Amanda Bynes “Rehab or Jail First?” (2013, offshore): This offshore bet followed a string of public incidents involving the actress, and it was widely condemned as exploiting mental health struggles. TMZ picked it up, social media went after the site, and the market disappeared overnight.

Can You Bet on the Weather Today?

Could you throw down some money in the weather right now? You can if you live in the UK! It won’t show up on your go-to sportsbook unless you’re across the pond or you know where to look. Weather betting is in the background on platforms that specialize in novelty markets or prediction contracts.

Where You’ll Find It

In the UK, mainstream books like Paddy Power, Bet365, and Ladbrokes all list weather bets under their novelty or “specials” sections. These aren’t constant fixtures, but they do pop up around major events (Wimbledon, Christmas, royal parades) or when a big change in the forecast gets extra attention.

As we mentioned before, Kalshi has a foothold in the U.S. as a regulated market where users can trade yes/no contracts on things like the following:

  • Will the high in Phoenix hit 110°F on Thursday?
  • Will New York get more than 0.5 inches of rain tomorrow?
  • Will September 2025 be warmer than the historical average?
Different Types of Weather Icon

It’s not sportsbook-style betting, as it’s structured more like a market exchange, but it is legal and weather-focused. You’re not guessing, you’re reacting to data.

Offshore sportsbooks still post the occasional weather prop, but those aren’t regulated. If you’re betting there, it’s riskier for reasons that have nothing to do with the forecast!

What You Can Bet On

Daily markets range from city-specific conditions to broader seasonal props. The most common categories include:

  • Rain totals: These are usually framed as Over/Under in millimeters or inches for a single city, and are based on official weather stations.
  • Temperature thresholds: Will City X hit above or below a fixed number?
  • Wind events: Gust speed bets show up during storms, particularly in coastal areas.
  • Event-based forecasts: During outdoor events like Wimbledon or Glastonbury, you’ll see markets on whether rain delays a match or cancels a set.

Markets tend to open when the forecast becomes interesting, and that means unusually dry, dangerously hot, or wet enough to disrupt something that people care about.

Using Forecast Data to Make a Move

You don’t need to be a meteorologist to read a weather model, but you do need to go further than the default app on your phone. Sites like Windy, Meteociel, and the Met Office have multi-model forecasts with hourly updates. Traders on platforms like Kalshi monitor the shifts between model runs and watch how the probabilities react.

There’s a really narrow window where having better data and getting it faster can give you an edge. That might last a few hours before the odds adjust. But if you’re on it early? There’s room to make solid picks using forecast movement alone.

But it’s not foolproof. Models will disagree. Storm tracks slide. And what looked like a strong line on Tuesday morning can become a bust by the late afternoon.

What Makes It Risky

The same thing that makes weather betting appealing, which is its randomness, is also what keeps most bettors away long-term. There’s no playbook for an unexpected pressure drop or a storm system that putters out 30 miles off course. And you’re not getting much margin when the books know that a spike is coming.

Rare events, like heat records or a snowfall in April, sound exciting, but they’re priced like lottery tickets. The line between smart speculation and novelty guesswork gets really thin, really fast.

If you’re betting on weather, you’re betting against time itself, not talent. And time doesn’t care how good your instincts are.

Conclusion: Reality Is Stranger Than Fiction & You Can Bet On It

Betting on the color of a royal baby’s blanket or if the girls are fighting again (Trump and Elon) sounds like a joke, but it’s not. It’s real, it’s legal, and it’s popular. Novelty markets are part sideshow and part real-life, and they’re a fixture for the bettors who don’t want to be boxed into box scores and stat sheets.

As for the whole betting on the weather? Well, that’s been around longer than most sportsbooks. Yes, it’s gimmicky, but it’s brought in data-loving gamblers and curious newbies. It doesn’t payout life-changing amounts, because nature doesn’t play by the odds.

What these markets really expose is just how strange, and frankly, entertaining, real life is when money gets involved. Bookmakers know this. Bettors know this. And as long as the forecast’s changing or a celebrity’s trending, you can bet that someone’s going to be putting odds on it.

It’s all fun and games until you’re yelling at a cloud or frantically refreshing the Met Office at 4:11 a.m., so don’t lose your cool and gamble responsibly. Oh, and leave Amanda Bynes alone!

Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles Sparks Prediction & Betting Picks (August 5, 2025)

The Los Angeles Sparks (12–15) will welcome the Indiana Fever (17–12) to California for a game that is more even than the standings look at first glance.

The Fever are doing just fine without Caitlin Clark; dare we say, more than fine? They’re in fifth place despite Clark’s absence, and the Sparks are still near the bottom but have shown some signs of life in recent games.

L.A. is coming off a 108–106 double-overtime win over Seattle, where Rickea Jackson dropped 27 and Dearica Hamby sealed it with a last-possession finish. All five starters scored in double figures, and four of them topped 20.

Indiana also beat the Storm, 78–74, behind 21 from Natasha Howard. Kelsey Mitchell had an off night shooting (3-for-16), but the Fever got enough out of the supporting group to close it out. They’re looking good without Clark, and it’s because of group effort on the glass and a solid, unselfish offense.

They’ve won three in a row on the road, but the Sparks have bested them two times this season.

Who do we think has the chops to pull off this win? Keep scrolling to see the matchup overview, trends, stats, the current betting odds, our picks for the three best bets, and our final score prediction!

Game Details

  • Matchup: Indiana Fever (17–12) vs. Los Angeles Sparks (12–15)
  • Date & Time: Tuesday, August 5, at 10 pm ET
  • Venue: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA
  • How to Watch: ESPN2 or with the WNBA League Pass

Matchup Overview

Indiana Fever Logo

Indiana Fever (17–12, 8–6 away)

Indiana comes into this on a five-game win streak, and they’ve done it without their star rookie. They’re putting up 85.1 points per game (4th in the league), with Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston stepping into bigger roles.

Defensively, they allow 80.8 PPG, which is slightly above league average, but have shown much better late-game execution. They’re also 6–3 ATS in their last nine on the road.

Los Angeles Sparks Logo

Los Angeles Sparks (12–15, 3–9 home)

The Sparks have won four of their last five overall, but their home form is still a problem; they’re only 2–8 ATS in their last 10 at Crypto.com Arena.

They’re allowing 88 points per game, which is one of the league’s highest marks, and haven’t had reliable stretches of stops. Dearica Hamby’s been the linchpin, but defensive lapses keep them stuck in close games or chasing deficits.

Recent Trends & Key Stats

This game will hint on how Indiana’s defense holds up against L.A.’s interior-focused attack. The Sparks rely on early seals from Hamby and quick reads in the paint, but Indiana’s help coverage has leveled up during their streak. The Fever’s off-ball movement and mid-post actions through Boston could stretch a Sparks defense that’s been slow to rotate all season.

Head-to-Head History

  • The Sparks beat the Fever twice this season: 89–79 on June 26 and 87–85 on July 5.
  • L.A. has won 7 of its last 8 home games against Indiana.

Scoring & Pace Trends

  • Indiana is putting up 85.1 points per game, and that’s good for top four in the league.
  • The Sparks are right up there with them at 85.5 PPG.
  • Total points in Sparks games are averaging 173.5, and that’s just under the posted number.
  • The Over has landed in 6 of Indiana’s last 9 and 7 of L.A.’s last 10.

Injuries

  • Caitlin Clark is still out with a groin injury and isn’t expected to return to the court until mid-August.
  • The Sparks have no major injuries. Dearica Hamby and Kelsey Plum are shouldering a bigger offensive load with extended minutes.

Betting Odds

What does the betting market have to say about this game? Here are the current odds and lines via ESPN BET:

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal

Fever

-1.5 (-110)

-125

Over 176.5 (-105)

Sparks

+1.5 (-110)

+105

Under 176.5 (-115)

FYI: Odds can and do shift as tip-off gets closer, so don’t forget to check what the latest lines are before you place a wager!

Our Best Bets

Ready for our best bets? We’ve looked at the data and market trends, and we’ve landed on three:

BetConfidence LevelWhy Do We Like It?

Fever –1.5 -110

⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)

Indiana’s been the more dependable team on the road, and the Sparks keep losing winnable home games.

Over 176.5 (-105)

⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)

Because both teams are averaging over 85 points and the pace is trending high, the over has value.

Fever +105

⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)

The spread is tight, but Indiana’s form and depth give them the advantage in a close contest.

Storylines to Watch

And last but not least, here are the main storylines to watch out for during the game!

  • Can Indiana adjust to L.A.’s defensive scheme without Caitlin Clark? The Sparks have thrown aggressive perimeter traps at Kelsey Mitchell and shown a willingness to switch across 1–3 to disrupt dribble hand-offs. Without Clark’s ball-handling to relieve pressure or stretch defenses from deep? Indiana needs better off-ball movement and quicker decisions from Kristy Wallace and Erica Wheeler to avoid stagnant half-court sets.
  • Which second unit holds up during transition-heavy stretches? Both teams run close to 80 possessions per game, and the pace doesn’t drop much when starters sit. Indiana’s bench has logged fewer points per game than L.A.’s over the last 5 matchups, and Temi Fagbenle is still ramping up. The Sparks have leaned hard on Rae Burrell and Layshia Clarendon for energy minutes, and if they can win those mid-quarter stints, it keeps Hamby and Jackson in fresher condition for when it’s crunch time.
  • Can the Sparks fix their late-game execution at home? L.A. has dropped 7 of their last 9 home games, and a big reason is late-possession breakdowns. They’ve rushed shots under pressure and allowed mismatches to be exploited on switches. Against a Fever team that doesn’t turn the ball over much (league-best 12.1 TO/G), the Sparks need tighter sets, fewer isolation possessions, and better spacing if they’re going to steer clear of another fourth-quarter collapse.

Why We’re Backing the Fever Caitlin Clark-less

Final Score Prediction: Indiana Fever 88 – Los Angeles Sparks 83

Indiana’s offense has looked a lot more connected without Clark (sorry, Caitlin); they’ve been getting more touches per possession, have better off-ball movement, and fewer stalled possessions. Mitchell’s been freed up as the primary scorer, and the Smith-Boston duo has forced defenses to cover more ground with better floor spacing.

Unfortunately, L.A. can’t say the same on defense. They rotate late on shooters, overhelp on drives, and rarely close possessions with a rebound. Even when they’re putting up points? They give a lot back on the other end during close games on their home court.

Indiana has cleaned up its late-game execution, and their road numbers back it up. The Sparks can score, but they’ve let too many winnable games get away from them at Crypto.com Arena. If this one follows the recent patterns, Indiana’s structure and shot selection win out.

Best Bets Recap

  • Fever –1.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Over 176.5: ⭐⭐⭐
  • Fever ML: ⭐⭐⭐

Want to take a smarter approach to betting? Start by exploring sports betting strategies that can help you make more informed decisions, manage risk, and spot value in the odds. Whether you’re new to betting or looking to sharpen your game, the right betting tools and information make all the difference. And when you’re ready to put your strategy into action, check out our best sportsbooks page to find trusted platforms with competitive odds, fast payouts, and reliable support.

Toluca vs. New York City FC Match Preview & Prediction (August 5, 2025)

New York City FC and Toluca will square off at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, and this one? It could decide the fate of the Leagues Cup.

Toluca is fresh off a comeback win over CF Montréal; they beat them 2–1 on Friday. NYCFC also started off strong and got a 2–0 win against Club León in their opener.

These two teams have never played each other before, and both are known for their distinct playing styles. Toluca is aggressive and attacks, and New York City FC is more defensive in its style.

It’s the final stage of group play, and both want to secure a spot in the knockout stage. Keep reading for a complete analysis, including recent form, the latest betting odds, players we are watching, injuries, team news, tactical preview, and our picks for the four best bets!

Match Details

  • Competition: 2025 Leagues Cup – Group Stage
  • Matchup: Toluca vs. New York City FC
  • Date & Time: Tuesday, August 51, at 7:30 pm ET
  • Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, NY
  • How to Watch: Stream exclusively on MLS Season Pass via Apple TV
  • Weather: Clear skies with temps around 78°F expected; perfect soccer weather!

Recent Form & Momentum

How have Toluca and NYCFC been playing? Here are both clubs’ stats for the last five matches in all competitions:

Deportivo Toluca F.C.

Toluca

  • W 4–3 vs CF Montréal (Leagues Cup)
  • W (PKs) vs Columbus Crew (Leagues Cup)
  • W 2–0 vs Juárez
  • D 1–1 vs Pumas UNAM
  • W 3–1 vs Puebla

They haven’t lost in five, and are scoring at a high clip, but are vulnerable to goals.

New York City FC

New York City FC

  • W 2–1 vs Club León (Leagues Cup)
  • L 1–0 vs Tigres UANL
  • D 1–1 vs CF Montréal
  • L 2–0 vs Inter Miami
  • W 4–2 vs Charlotte FC

NYCFC has been up and down with its form, but the win over León was impressive.

Betting Odds

What does the market say about this matchup? Here are the latest betting odds and lines according to DraftKings:

Moneyline (3-way)

  • Toluca +105
  • Draw +285
  • NYCFC +195

BTTS

  • Yes -210
  • No +165

Over/Under

  • Over 2.5 (-200)
  • Under 2.5 (+155)

Players to Watch

The players we’re watching? They’re the ones who could push the game one way or the other for their teams!

Toluca

  • Paulinho (FWD): Paulinho poaches inside the six-yard box and times his runs really well between defenders. NYCFC’s center backs will have to stay tight or risk giving him easy tap-ins.
  • Marcel Ruiz (CM): Ruiz is the anchor in Toluca’s midfield triangle. He’s the one linking quick one-touch passes into wide areas to spring counterattacks, and NYCFC will need to close him down early to break up their tempo.

NYCFC

  • Alonso Martínez (FWD): Martínez likes to pull wide and then cut inside on his right. His movement between fullbacks and center backs created space vs León, and Toluca’s back line, which is less mobile, could get pulled apart if they don’t track him closely.
  • Andrés Perea (CM): Perea is now NYCFC’s main outlet in the pivot, and he’ll be responsible for breaking up Ruiz’s rhythm and distributing quickly under a lot of pressure. If he gets overrun? NYC is at risk of losing control of the midfield altogether.

Injury Report & Squad News

Toluca comes onto the field at full strength. NYCFC is missing a few key pieces in its midfield and defense, and Toluca will try to exploit this.

Toluca

The full squad is available. Coach Hernán Cristante is expected to stick with the same core group that won their last two Leagues Cup games, so no rotation is likely because advancement is at stake.

NYCFC

  • Out: Keaton Parks (central midfielder), Malachi Jones (wing depth), Thiago Martins (starting center back).


Parks and Martins are sidelined, so NYCFC’s backbone is weakened, particularly in buildup and defensive structure. Expect to see Perea take on more defensive midfield responsibility, and Justin Haak or Strahinja Tanasijević could fill in at the CB slot.

Tactical Preview

Time to talk tactics! As we said, both clubs play with different styles, so here’s what we are most likely to see in their forms.

Toluca Setup

Toluca lines up in an aggressive 4-2-3-1 or a fluid 4-3-3. They press high, circulate the ball quickly, and flood the flanks with overlapping fullbacks. When it works? They pin teams back and generate high shot volume. But the aggression they’re known for leaves them open behind the back line, and it’s usually when they’re forced to recover in transition.

NYCFC Approach

NYCFC will likely go more conservative in a 4-2-3-1, sitting deeper and waiting for chances on the break. With Parks out, their midfield won’t carry the same control, so expect to see more direct play aimed at springing Martínez into space. Their best chances will probably come from quick counters or capitalizing on Toluca’s turnovers in the buildup.

Our Best Bets

Toluca’s attack is in sync, and NYCFC’s back line is still stretched a little thin. And that gives the edge to the Liga MX side in a game where chances should come at both ends. Look below for our top four best bets!

BetPickConfidence Level

Match Result

Toluca +105

Medium-High

Total Goals

Over 2.5 -200

Medium

Both Teams to Score

Yes -210

Medium

Anytime Goalscorer

Paulinho +140

Low-Medium

To make the smartest wager, start by confirming the official lineups, checking for any late-breaking injury news, and comparing odds from top sportsbooks to ensure you’re getting the best possible value.

Betting Analysis

  • Toluca ML: They have a stronger structure on and off the ball, so Toluca has the advantage tactically and physically. They’re better at dictating the pace and exploiting space when teams can’t put together clean sequences. NYCFC’s missing starters only widen that separation.
  • Over 2.5 Goals: Both sides push the tempo in different ways, and neither is built to sit back for 90 minutes. NYCFC needs to be more proactive at home, and Toluca’s direct play usually opens up matches, so this one favors a scoreline with multiple finishes.
  • BTTS – Yes: Even if NYCFC gives up long stretches of possession, they’ve shown they can make a comeback. Expect them to take more risks if they’re behind, and Toluca’s high back line leaves enough room for them to find the net.
  • Paulinho Anytime Goal: Paulinho has been the most active option inside the box for Toluca and usually gets several looks per match. Against a thinned-out back line? One clean chance would be all it takes to cash this prop.

Why Toluca Should Exit Yankee Stadium with the Win

Final Score Prediction: Toluca 2 – 1 NYCFC

Toluca is coming in with a stronger run of results and a more cohesive attack. NYCFC has made progress lately, but comes into this match short on defensive depth, with key absences affecting the back line.

We expect it to be a fast-tempo game with chances for both sides, but Toluca’s structure and depth give them the advantage here. The straight moneyline has value, but combining it with BTTS or Over 2.5 in a same-game parlay offers? That has a better upside!

Best Bets Recap

  • Toluca ML (+105): Medium-High Confidence
  • Over 2.5 Goals (–200): Medium Confidence
  • BTTS – Yes (–210): Medium Confidence
  • Paulinho Anytime Goal (+140): Low-Medium Confidence

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction & Best Bets (August 4, 2025)

Another summer series kicks off between the Cincinnati and Chicago Cubs! The Reds head to the Windy City for a three-game series starting at 8:05 on August 4.

The NL Central rivals take the field, and although the Cubs are slightly favored (home field advantage), do not count out the road dog Reds.

The Cubs are after the division title, and the Reds are trying to hold onto their place in the Wild Card race.

  • Chicago is giving the ball to Mike Soroka, and his biggest hurdle? What happens once hitters get on base. Lefties have tagged him early in counts, and he’s had a hard time limiting innings after that. He doesn’t always work ahead, and when he’s forced into the stretch, the extra pitches pile up.
  • Nick Lodolo is starting for the Reds, and he’s been more reliable with traffic. He fills the zone, changes eye levels, doesn’t let innings get out of hand, and he’s given the Reds 5–6 solid frames without needing early relief.

In this area? Lodolo gives the Reds a steadier hand, and the number on Cincinnati feels like it underrates that.

But we aren’t selling that short, so keep reading for our preview! We’ve got detailed pitcher stats, the latest betting odds and trends, main player/matchups to watch, and our picks for the three best bets!

Game Details

  • Matchup: Cincinnati Reds (58-54) vs. Chicago Cubs (65-46)
  • Date & Time: Monday, August 4, First pitch at 8:05 pm ET
  • Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
  • Venue Factor: Wrigley usually suppresses scoring when the wind isn’t blowing out, so check the weather before first pitch!
  • How to Watch: Watch on MARQ, FDSOH
  • Weather Forecast: Expect temperatures in the mid-70s °F, with light clouds or haze, and a low chance of precipitation.
  • Season Context: The Cubs are 65–46 overall and have been strong at Wrigley (35–20), still pushing Milwaukee in the NL Central. The Reds are at 58–54 and under .500 on the road (25–28), and are after a spot in the Wild Card race.
  • Head-to-Head This Season: Cubs are ahead 2–1; Chicago won the last game.

Starting Pitcher Stats

Who’s heading out to the hill for the Reds and the Cubs? Below is the starting pitcher for each club and a breakdown of their skills!

Cincinnati Reds Logo

Nick Lodolo – Reds (LHP)

  • 2025 Stats: 8–6, 3.09 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 103 K in 95 IP.
  • Recent Form: Lodolo has gone six or more innings in three of his last four starts, and he cuts down on free passes and forces grounders.
  • On the Road: He has a 2.75 ERA away from home and has kept the Cubs’ lineup contained in previous meetings.
  • Matchup Fit: His low-zone approach plays really well at Wrigley when the ball isn’t carrying.
Chicago Cubs Logo

Michael Soroka – Cubs (RHP)

  • 2025 Stats: 3–8, 4.87 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 76 K in 89 IP.
  • Recent Form: Soroka has been giving up base runners with high pitch counts and hasn’t gone beyond the fifth inning in recent outings.
  • Home Numbers: His ERA climbs to 5.25 at Wrigley, and those margins get thin if you fall behind in counts.
  • Against the Reds: Allowed five runs over 4.1 innings the last time he faced the Reds.

Current Betting Odds

If you’re betting on this game, you need to know the odds and lines! Here they are, courtesy of ESPN BET:

Bet TypeRedsCubs

Moneyline

+120

-145

Run Line

+1.5 (-190)

-1.5 (-160)

Total

Over 7.5 (-125)

Under 7.5 (+105)

Markets Overview

Moneyline

  • The Cubs are at –125 at most sportsbooks.
  • The Reds range from +110 to +125.
  • The implied win rate on Cincinnati hovers around 46%, but model projections have them closer to 51%.

Run Line

  • The Reds +1.5 (–182) gives you a little bit of a cushion, but the return isn’t great.
  • Cubs –1.5 (+155) pays out better if they pull away, but that all hinges on Soroka holding up and the offense showing up.

Total Runs (O/U 7.5)

  • The Under has been a decent angle when Lodolo starts.
  • The Cubs remain below average against lefties; they’re in the bottom 10 in OPS vs LHP.
  • The weather doesn’t look like it’ll play into scoring; moderate temps and low wind are expected.

Main Players & Matchup Trends

  • Elly De La Cruz (Reds): Leads team in steals and triples; hit .312 in July.
  • Spencer Steer (Reds): 17 home runs, 70+ RBI.
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs): 25 HR, 27 SB; hits against lefties well.
  • Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Batting .211 since July 15.

Team Betting Trends

  • Reds: 4–1 ATS in last 5 road games; 6 of last 8 have gone under.
  • Cubs: 3–6 ATS in last 9 home games; bullpen gave up 3+ ER in 4 of last 7.

Our Best Bets

What do we think looks good for this game? We’ve got our sights set on three best bets!

BetConfidence LevelWhy Do We Like It?

Cincinnati Reds +120

Medium

Lodolo is the better starter, and Cincinnati is priced well as an underdog.

Under 7.5 (+105)

Medium

Both teams have a hard time against lefties, and the Reds have leaned under in recent games.

Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Hits (-190)

High

Crow-Armstrong is hitting over .310 vs. left-handers; he likely gets two at-bats off Lodolo.

Want a bonus angle? You got it! 

  • Same-game parlay: Reds ML + Under 8.5 → Pays around +290 depending on the sportsbook.

Lines can move fast before the first pitch, so staying updated is key. To make the most of your bets, check out our top-rated sports betting sites for the best odds and value.

Why We’re Taking the Reds as Road Dogs 

Cincinnati has some real value in the series opener as the road underdog. Why? Because Lodolo’s been really reliable in the last month. He’s keeping the ball on the ground and limiting mistakes. And at Wrigley Field, that plays. Soroka hasn’t made it through six innings in weeks and has gotten into trouble once runners get on base.

The total looks playable, too! The Reds skew under with Lodolo on the hill, and Chicago hasn’t done very much hitting against lefties this season. Add in calmer weather and two lineups that don’t usually walk, and you’ve got a setup where one or two early hits could very well decide the game.

As for props, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s splits against left-handers are strong enough to believe in. Even if Lodolo keeps the ball down, Crow-Armstrong hits lefties well enough to get one through or beat out an infield single.

Best Bets Recap

  • Reds ML (+120): Medium
  • Under 7.5 (+105):  Medium
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Hits (–190): High

Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds 4, Chicago Cubs 2

We feel like Lodolo will keep the ball out of the air, Soroka will fade after the third inning, and the Reds will grab the opener!

NFL Overseas Expansion: How International Games Could Change Betting Strategies

The NFL isn’t content with taking over every Sunday, Monday, and Thursday night, nooooo. It already rules the roost in the U.S., but that’s not good enough! It wants to go global. That’s right, y’all; America’s favorite game (that would be football) is expanding overseas.

Now Europe will have two versions of football, but they call soccer football, so it could get confusing.

Back to the point! What began as a one-time, then once-a-year novelty game in London is taking place all over Europe. Joining the rotation? That would be Germany, Ireland, and Spain are on deck. Brazil wants in as well! And that’s amazing for global fans of the game.

But for bettors in the U.S.? It means recalculating everything about your strategy.

International games won’t be the same. Why? A little thing called time zones. Ever had jet lag? Ever had jet lag and tried to play a whole football game? See what we mean?

Practice routines will be interrupted, stadiums will be strange and unknown territories with no home team fans, and the weather is also a factor. What was once a neutral curiosity on the calendar will become something that can change spreads, derail props, and throw totals right out the window!

If you are a football fan and want to stay ahead of the curve? This is for you! We are going to explain every detail about how NFL overseas games will screw up players’ performance, change the odds and lines, and how bettors can adjust before the markets do!

NFL’s Overseas Expansion: Where We Stand

The NFL’s push to grow internationally began in 2007, when the Miami Dolphins and New York Giants faced off at Wembley Stadium in the league’s first-ever regular-season game played outside the U.S.

At the time, it felt like a one-off game that was built for marketing and optics. But that matchup brought in over 80,000 fans, despite the heavy rain and a mud-soaked pitch, and it proved that there was a real appetite for American football abroad.

That game laid the groundwork for what would become the NFL International Series, which has only grown steadily over almost 20 years. Since then? The league has held more than 40 regular-season games across London, Mexico City, and, most recently, Germany!

Where It’s Going in 2025 

The 2025 NFL season will feature seven international games, and that’s the most in league history! The locations span the following five countries:

  • United Kingdom: Three games (two at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, one at Wembley)
  • Germany: Two games (one in Munich, one in Frankfurt)
  • Brazil: One game at Neo Química Arena in São Paulo
  • Spain: First-ever NFL game in Madrid, at the Santiago Bernabéu
  • Ireland: One game in Dublin, likely at Croke Park or Aviva Stadium

The above additions mark the NFL’s clearest signal yet that global expansion is part of the league’s long-term plan. The days of one or two games tucked into the October schedule are over, and they’re now strategic, branded events with marketing reach, international partners, and growing local fan bases.

A Long-Term Plan for Europe (and Beyond)

Commissioner Roger Goodell has made the league’s ambitions known. He’s publicly floated the idea of a four-team European division, and in the past has suggested that London alone could support two full-time franchises. While the logistics are still really complicated, travel, player contracts, time zones, and visa rules among them, the NFL is moving closer to some kind of permanent international footprint.

That future could involve new expansion teams or a relocation from a current U.S. franchise. Either way, bettors should be getting ready for a landscape where NFL overseas games aren’t the exception; they’re going to be part of the standings and the futures markets.

Global Marketing Rights: A Key Piece

Supporting this push is the NFL Global Markets Program, which was launched in 2021. It allows teams to establish marketing partnerships and fan engagement campaigns in certain countries. As of now, 29 of the 32 NFL teams have international marketing rights.

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have long been tied to London, and they’ve officially secured UK rights through this program.
  • The New England Patriots hold exclusive rights in Germany, where they’ve already hosted fan festivals and built a sizable local following.
  • Other teams have targeted Mexico, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and South Korea, planting the seeds for long-term fan growth.

Travel Fatigue & Time Zone Impact on Performance

Jet lag and hectic travel itineraries can be brutal, and they have real effects on NFL teams. Crossing multiple time zones disrupts players’ body clocks and can sap performance.

Sports science shows that when athletes compete outside their normal circadian rhythm, they suffer more than just mental lapses; their physical strength and reaction time decline when they’re off schedule.

We’ve seen this in practice: for years, West Coast teams were notorious for struggling in early 1:00 pm ET kickoffs in the East, and East Coast teams usually aren’t at full form when they play in late-night games out West. 

Now amplify that effect for overseas trips, where teams might be 5–8 hours off their usual time. The result? Sluggish starts and underprepared play. Teams coming back from London without a bye week have usually underperformed: in a small sample, those post-London teams scored fewer points than expected and allowed more points than expected, a pattern that’s consistent with a tired, jet-lagged squad.

In 2023, when the Bills played the Jaguars in London, Jacksonville stayed in the UK for two weeks (having played the week prior), and Buffalo didn’t arrive until Friday morning, which was barely 48 hours before kickoff.

The Bills came out flat, and coach Sean McDermott admitted their energy “was not good enough early in the game,” vowing to re-evaluate travel plans the next time.

Bettors should adjust point spreads or totals based on these kinds of rest/travel disparities. If a West Coast team has to fly to London (or a team like Buffalo travels on a short week), think about the toll it takes on them: fatigued teams could start slow, and their odds of covering large spreads drop. Don’t ignore the hidden bye week dynamics either! Some  teams now choose to play the following week instead of taking an immediate bye, but as history shows, that can be risky. Always check how much rest and prep time each side has had when you’re handicapping an international game.

Stadium Atmosphere & Crowd Dynamics

One of the most striking things about NFL games abroad is the truly unique crowd atmosphere. These are neutral-site games in every sense of the word: the usual home-field advantage is absent.

Fans at a NFL Overseas Game

The stands are filled with a mix of fans wearing all sorts of NFL jerseys (not just those of the teams playing), and that’s a vibe that’s closer to a Pro Bowl crowd than a rowdy partisan NFL stadium.

European fans also tend to cheer both teams’ big plays and don’t necessarily observe the same etiquette (like remaining quiet when the offense is at work). This can cause some unusual moments, like a “home” team in London could still need a silent snap count because the crowd noise isn’t strictly in their favor.

From a betting perspective, this means you should give little to no boost for home-field in NFL overseas games. And those results bear that out: since 2007, favorites have won about 65% of London games straight up, roughly the same as normal, and favorites are almost exactly .500 against the spread in London. The neutral setting hasn’t produced a major bias for favorites or underdogs overall.

What has been really notable is that most London games feel flat, as they lack that usual home energy or urgency, and that works in favor of the underdogs.

And European crowds all have their own style. They’ll do the wave, cheer at strange times, and create a spectacle, which can only help underdogs who don’t have to deal with a hostile road environment. Momentum can change without a true home crowd to quell it, so live bettors can find value in spotting an underdog gaining confidence in a neutral atmosphere. If you’re handicapping these games? Take away the typical 2-3 point home-field advantage. Treat it as a bowl game at a neutral site, where raw team quality (and travel adaptation) matters way more than crowd support does.

Weather, Turf, and Stadium Conditions

Overseas venues also introduce unfamiliar field conditions and weather factors that bettors need to be aware of! London games have been played at both Wembley Stadium and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and there’s a huge difference: Wembley has a natural grass pitch, and Tottenham uses a replacement artificial turf surface for NFL games.

That turf at Tottenham? It drew loud complaints; after a 2023 game there, Buffalo Bills players called it “f–king cement,” as the normal grass was swapped out for a harder artificial field to protect the soccer pitch. Hard or slick turf can impact play with slower cutbacks, different cleat choices, and potentially higher injury risk (which could affect in-game betting if players go down).

The German venues used in Munich and Frankfurt have been grass, but those weren’t great either. In the NFL’s first Munich game (2022), players and coaches griped about the slippery grass at Allianz Arena; it was so bad that the field had to be replaced afterward. By 2023, in Frankfurt, the NFL installed a hybrid grass system to prevent similar slipping issues after learning from Munich.

The turf issues can influence totals and props: a slick field could lead to more conservative play-calling (fewer deep cuts on routes) and lower scoring, whereas a rock-hard, fast surface could favor offenses (but also possibly cause more field-goal attempts if drives stall on unfamiliar footing).

The weather is another factor. London is known for rain and damp conditions in autumn, and the very first London game in 2007 turned into a muddy slog, a 13-10 game played on a soaked field at Wembley. Although the field quality has improved since that “mudfest,” you still see rain impact some UK games (wet footballs causing fumbles or drops).

Bettors should treat the weather forecast in London or Germany just as seriously as they would for, say, Chicago or Green Bay. Totals for international games have usually skewed lower, and it’s partly due to weather and partly travel fatigue. The under has hit in 17 of 33 London games through 2023, and the last four London games (through 2023) all went under, averaging just 43.5 total points. 

Some of it is timing (early kickoffs) and jet lag, but soggy European fall weather and unfamiliar wind patterns in open soccer stadiums do play a part. And consider altitude if the NFL returns to Mexico City (Estadio Azteca’s thin air has its own effects), though Mexico games are on pause until the stadium is renovated. Do your homework on the venue: grass vs. turf, recent field conditions, and forecasted weather. The factors could tilt a prop (e.g., favor a running back’s yards if receivers will be slipping in routes, or vice versa) or make a difference on the over/under. And if you hear players openly complaining about a field pre-game, don’t ignore it; it could be an omen of a sloppy, lower-scoring affair.

Bookmaker Adjustments & Market Inefficiencies

Whenever the NFL ventures into new territory (literally), bookmakers have to adjust their lines, and that means opportunities for sharp bettors. By now, oddsmakers are aware of the basic trends in international games, but that doesn’t mean they always get it right. One notable trend has been on totals: as mentioned, a slight lean toward unders in London historically (about 52% unders) and several low-scoring games in recent years . Books will adjust totals down a bit for jet lag and unfamiliar settings, but there may still be value if you anticipate extreme scenarios (such as especially bad weather or two tired offenses). Watch the odds movement in the week leading up to an NFL overseas game.

The public might not fully account for travel factors until closer to kickoff, so early lines could be soft. For example, if you knew the Jaguars would stay in London and the Bills would take a red-eye flight, you could have grabbed Jacksonville as an underdog before the market adjusted. In that 2023 game, bettors who got ahead of the news profited when the Jags won outright as +5.5 underdogs (the line closed a bit tighter as sharp money came in on Jacksonville).

Football Line Adjustments 3D Icon

Another potential inefficiency is public perception. Casual bettors sometimes overrate teams with international experience (“Oh, Team X has played in London three times, they’ll be fine”) or, conversely, panic about travel for teams that end up handling it well. Don’t blindly follow these narratives. A team like Jacksonville does have a routine for London, but it doesn’t guarantee a cover;  the Jags have had mixed results despite basically being London’s home team (they’ve played a league-high 13 games in the UK). If the public inflates the Jaguars’ odds due to their London familiarity, you might actually get line value on the opponent. Always ground your bets in the fundamentals of the matchup plus the travel/rest info, rather than a simplistic “Team X is used to London” take.

Keep an eye on player prop markets as well, as these can be slow to adjust to overseas nuances. Sportsbooks will often set player props based on season averages, but we’ve seen top players underperform statistically in London games – for instance, in 2023, both Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill had lower-than-usual passing yards in a London matchup, and Trevor Lawrence threw well below his average in one of his London games. Travel can disrupt timing and practice, which might mean fewer explosive plays (hurting overs on yardage props). Or a coach might rotate backups in more liberally if he senses players getting gassed by travel, which could affect snap counts for fantasy/DFS purposes. These are the kind of subtle edges where a bettor paying attention can profit. If you know a star player struggled with the long flight (watch mid-week practice reports or local press), maybe fade his props or DFS usage. Meanwhile, books sometimes over-adjust in other areas, like assuming there will be a huge drop-off in offense and setting the total ultra-low, even when two high-powered teams might still find ways to score. If you see an over/under that’s been hammered down due to narrative, and you have reason to think it’s overblown, don’t be afraid to go contrarian.

Lastly, line timing is super important. International games often kick off at unusual times (like 9:30 am Eastern on Sunday), which means line movement can happen late Saturday or very early Sunday when casual bettors finally notice the game. Sharp bettors who act before the crowd can catch lines before they move. The overseas effect is still somewhat new, so occasionally sportsbooks misprice the situation. For instance, historically, bettors didn’t account enough for jet lag on teams the week after London, but analysis showed those teams often underperform the next game, a nugget you could exploit in advance. Stay informed on travel schedules, read quotes from coaches/players about the trip, and look for any market overreaction or underreaction. International games add volatility, and with volatility comes opportunity for those who are prepared to seize it.

DFS & Prop Betting Nuances

NFL overseas games don’t just challenge bettors on spreads and totals – they also introduce wrinkles for daily fantasy sports (DFS) players and prop bettors. One big factor is how coaching strategies might shift due to the unusual circumstances. Some coaches take a simpler, more conservative approach in an international game, especially if practice time was cut short by travel. This could mean a run-heavy script or fewer elaborate trick plays, which in turn affects DFS output (e.g., fewer shootouts, more field goal drives). We’ve seen a tendency for London games to start slowly, as teams feel each other out (and shake off jet lag).

If you’re playing DFS showdown contests for a morning London game, consider that the first half might be low scoring. That could elevate the value of kickers and defenses in DFS lineups, relative to a typical game, and downgrade fringe big-play receivers who might normally rely on a high-flying game script. Conversely, some coaches might try to “make a splash” for the international crowd (there’s a theory that teams want to be ambassadors for the sport, possibly leading to a surprise onside kick or a 4th-down attempt to excite fans). But more often than not, they stick to what’s comfortable – no coach wants a long flight home after a failed trick play costs them a win.

Prop bettors should also monitor player usage closely. Travel-related factors can lead to limited usage of certain players.

For example, if a player is dealing with a minor injury, teams sometimes err on the side of caution and either leave them home or put them on a pitch count abroad. (It’s not uncommon to see a late-week injury update that a player “did not travel with the team,” which obviously means you should hit the under on any of his props.)

In 2024, the Chicago Bears ruled out safety Jaquan Brisker with a concussion, specifically noting he did not travel to London – an indication you wouldn’t see with a normal game. Keep an eye on those Saturday injury reports before an international Sunday; a surprise absence could open up value on overs for a backup’s props or unders for a player who might be less than 100%. Also consider fatigue in play-calling: a team that normally pushes tempo might slow it down if players are huffing and puffing. That could impact overs/unders on things like the number of plays, QB pass attempts, or receiver receptions (fewer no-huddle situations, more clock running).

DFS angles abound in these games. If you believe a team will come out sluggish, you might focus on a workhorse running back (assuming the team leans on the run in a simpler game plan) or even the opposing defense (a jet-lagged offense is prone to turnovers and sacks). If weather or turf is an issue, downgrade kickers on bad turf (we’ve seen missed kicks on unfamiliar fields) or upgrade possession receivers if deep passing is less effective. And remember, the game flow could be weird – some international games see low scoring early and then a flurry of points late once teams adjust. This opens opportunities for savvy live bettors or second-half DFS lineup pivots. Same-game parlays should be built with an understanding that correlations might differ from a standard game: for instance, you might parlay an under on a QB’s yards with an under on the game total and an over on the opposing RB’s carries, telling a story that the QB’s team is jet-lagged and falls behind, leading to a grind-out game by the opponent. These nuanced approaches can pay off if you read the tea leaves (or in this case, the travel itineraries and practice reports) correctly.

Betting Strategies for International Games

What are some concrete adjustments that you can make when you bet on international NFL games? We’ve got five of them for you!

Strategies Banner

1. Monitor Travel & Rest Days

Always factor in how and when each team traveled. Did one team fly out early in the week while the other left Thursday or later? Is one coming off a bye or long rest? These details matter. Give a boost to the team with more recovery and prep time, and be cautious with teams on short rest or extensive travel (especially west-to-east travel, which is harder on body clocks). If a team has to play the very next week after an NFL overseas game, consider fading them or adjusting the spread; the fatigue factor is real, as history shows in their ATS performance.

2. Fade Public Perception

The betting public often latches onto simplistic narratives in these games. For example, “Team X always wins in London” or “Jet lag will destroy Team Y.” Use these to your advantage. If the public overrates a team’s overseas experience (like blindly backing Jacksonville just because of their UK familiarity), you might find line value on the other side. Conversely, if a team is getting no love because “they had a long flight,” but you have intel that they handled it well, you could snag a favorable number. In short, be contrarian when the public overcorrects for the travel storyline.

3. Watch Line Movement Early

Keep a close eye on line moves as soon as the matchup is set. Oddsmakers will post an opening line often not fully incorporating the travel nuances; those moves will happen when sharp bettors weigh in or news comes out. If you have a strong angle (like you know one team historically struggles with long trips or a coach openly hates the disruption), bet early before the books adjust. By Sunday morning of a London game, the line may have shifted several points if significant money or news (like a player not traveling) hits the wires. Be ahead of that curve.

4. Limit Unit Size on Unknowns

With less predictability comes more variance. These games can be volatile – weird things happen overseas (strange bounces on unfamiliar fields, players cramping from travel, etc.). If you’re unsure how a team will handle the trip or the conditions, consider scaling down your bet size compared to a normal game. It’s okay to have a lean, but acknowledge the higher uncertainty. Think of it like betting on a bowl game in college. You do your research, but you accept that there are extra variables. Preserve your bankroll by not overextending on a game that carries more unknowns than a regular NFL game.

5. Focus on Totals & Second-Half Bets

One of the clearest patterns in international games has been sluggish starts followed by chaotic finishes as fatigue sets in. This opens two avenues: Totals and 2nd half wagers. If you anticipate a low-scoring start, you might bet the first-half under or wait to live-bet an adjusted total. Some bettors also have found success playing second-half overs, figuring that defenses wear down more than offenses late (jet lag can kill your concentration on tackling). Additionally, if one team was jet-lagged and fell behind early, the second half might see them in catch-up mode, and that’s good for a live bet on them to cover a bigger spread or to push the game over the total. Use what you observe in the first half: is one team clearly tired and slow? Did the commentators mention players looking gassed? Adjust at halftime, as there can be value in 2H lines before the bookmakers fully account for the fatigue factor that you’ve identified. Remember, a lackluster first half in London (perhaps a 6-3 score) doesn’t mean the game can’t explode in the second; sometimes teams find their footing and points pour in late. Being nimble and ready to strike on second-half lines can turn a profit in these unique games.

What If the NFL Adds an Overseas Team?

The NFL’s international ambitions don’t stop at a few games each year; the league has openly speculated about a permanent overseas team or even a European division in the future. It might sound far-fetched, but let’s play it out: What would it mean for bettors if, say, the London Jaguars or a Frankfurt franchise became reality?

  • First, the logistics would create some wild scheduling quirks. A London-based team would likely face an imbalance of home and away stretches. They might play a bunch of home games in a row (to minimize back-and-forth travel) and then embark on a multi-week US road trip. In fact, NFL officials have suggested a possible formula: a European team could have two big U.S. road trips per season, one of two games and one of three games, rather than flying across the Atlantic eight separate times. As a bettor, you’d have to account for those blocks of travel – e.g., maybe that team performs decently in the first game of a long U.S. trip but wears down by the end of it. Home games for an overseas team could become a huge advantage if visiting teams struggle with the time change. A sleep expert theorized that a London team’s players would acclimate to the travel demands over time, potentially giving them an edge when U.S. teams come to visit.
  • The “jet lag penalty” might change; the London team could handle it better, and every opponent is dealing with a one-off hardship. We could see point spreads for London home games shaded a bit more toward the home team than a typical home-field advantage. That London team’s away games would be brutal; every road game involves a transatlantic flight. You could see them favored at home frequently, but big underdogs in a lot of road spots, especially if playing in the U.S. West Coast (think of a London team at Seattle; that’s body-clock hell).
  • For season-long bets, this introduces both opportunity and risk. Win totals for the overseas team might initially be set cautiously by books, as nobody’s sure how they’ll handle the travel gauntlet. There could be value in betting extreme outcomes;  maybe they crush at home and steal a couple of road wins, going over their win total, or conversely, they could flame out due to travel fatigue and underperform. Futures like division odds or making the playoffs would be interesting: would the market underrate them because of travel concerns, or overrate them because of a presumed home advantage? Until we have data, astute bettors would need to read between the lines. Pay attention to how the team manages logistics (do they base in the U.S. for parts of the season? Do they invest in sleep science heavily?). Those could be clues to whether they’ll exceed expectations or not.
  • Individual player performance and awards (MVP, etc.) could also be affected. A star quarterback on a European team might put up great numbers at home but struggle in some road games after long flights, potentially hurting season-long stats or consistency. Voters might subconsciously discount players on an overseas team if that team has an uneven schedule. This could make betting on awards for those players tricky. On the other hand, if an overseas team is competitive, it could be a compelling story – imagine the narrative of a London team making a playoff push despite the travel; a coach of the year nod could be in play.
  • There’s also the betting public’s bias to consider. Many casual bettors might simply fade a Europe-based team in the early going (“no way they can handle all that travel”), but if you have reason to believe otherwise, like the team is built with depth and a smart travel plan, you could profit by going against that public bias. The reverse could happen too: a novelty factor where the public supports the overseas team out of fascination, skewing lines in their favor undeservedly. As always, your edge will come from knowledge and not emotion. If the NFL adds an overseas team, treat it as a new market inefficiency waiting to be solved. We’ll have to recalibrate ELO ratings for that team’s home vs away splits, and bookmakers will, too!

Are You Ready for the NFL’s Next Betting Frontier?

The NFL’s international presence is expanding, and so are the betting opportunities that come with it. What used to be one token London game per year has turned into a full schedule of NFL overseas matchups, each with its own challenges and variables.

For bettors, this means that their old strategies could use a tune-up. Travel, turf, and time-zone chaos can render a straight statistical comparison incomplete. The smart bettors will be the ones who incorporate the new factors into their models: tracking line movement related to travel news, studying how teams historically perform after long trips, and adjusting risk when unpredictability is high.

Are you changing with the NFL as it enters this next frontier? It could look like backing off a heavy favorite who just flew 5,000 miles, or hopping on a total that doesn’t reflect a looming London downpour. It could mean getting up early to live-bet a groggy first quarter, or digging into a beat reporter’s notes about how a team spent its week in Munich.

As the NFL’s global future unfurls, with talk of more games in far-flung locales and permanent NFL overseas teams, bettors who evolve alongside the league will find the best angles.

The NFL isn’t confined to U.S. soil anymore, and that means your betting playbook shouldn’t be, either!

You can turn the NFL’s international experiments into your betting advantages. The next time you see “LOCATION: London (or Berlin, or Mexico City)” on the schedule, don’t sigh and skip the game! If you use the right approach, you’ll be more than ready for the NFL’s next betting frontier, wherever in the world it happens to go next.

Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Preview & Prediction (August 2, 2025)

It’s a reeeeematch (you have to say it like a DJ says reeeemix or this doesn’t work). It’s gonna be a doozy, because the Minnesota Lynx are heading to Vegas to play the Aces again. And the Lynx have already beaten them twice.

We’re two-thirds through the regular WNBA season, and the Aces are 7th in the standings, which is way behind the first-place Lynx. They just picked up a 89–74 win over the Sparks, led by A’ja Wilson’s 34 points and a defense that held L.A. to 4-of-24 from three.

The Lynx beat the defending champs, the New York Liberty, 100–93 behind 30 points from league scoring leader Napheesa Collier. Minnesota hit 15 of 31 from three in the win.

Collier and Wilson are both MVP front-runners, the Lynx are this close to being the No. 1 seed, and the Aces need to up their game.

It’s the year of the Lynx, and they’re the hands-down road favs, but can the Aces stop their rampage?

Keep scrolling to see team form, season stats, the latest betting odds, H2H, player matchups, advanced metrics, our picks for the three best bets, and a bonus prop!

Game Details

  • Matchup: Minnesota Lynx (23–5) at the Las Vegas Aces (14–13)
  • Date & Time: Saturday, August 2, at 3 pm ET
  • Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
  • How to Watch: ABC (national) and ESPN+ (streaming)
  • The Stakes: Minnesota leads the Western Conference with a 23–5 record, and Las Vegas is fighting for its life to stay near the playoff bubble at 14–13 in a crowded bracket

Team Form & Season Stats

How have the Lynx and the Aces been playing prior to this game? Let’s take a look:

Minnesota Lynx Logo

Minnesota Lynx

  • On a five-game win streak, with recent wins against some of the top teams in the WNBA.
  • Holding opponents to 78.9 points per game, and that’s the best mark in the league.
  • They lead the WNBA in three-point percentage at 38.2%.
  • They’ve won 11 of 13 road games, and that’s one of the best road records in the league.
Las Vegas Aces Logo

Las Vegas Aces

  • Sitting around .500 after a huge drop-off from last season’s performance.
  • Offensive numbers are down; only 81.6 PPG compared to 92.8 last year.
  • 3–5 in their last eight games. Wilson is still anchoring the team, but her scoring support has been hit-or-miss.
  • Defensive rating has slipped to 9th, with perimeter rotations and transition coverage causing problems.

Betting Odds

Wanna put some cash on this matchup? Look below for the latest odds and lines posted on DraftKings:

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal

Lynx

-5 (-110)

-230

Over 167 (-108)

Aces

+5 (-110)

+190

Under 167 (-112)

Line Movement (before the above latest lines)

  • The spread opened at Lynx –4.5 and moved to –5.5 after early betting hit Minnesota.
  • The total dropped from 166 to 165 as bettors reacted to the Lynx’s defensive form.

Head-to-Head Breakdown

Minnesota has outscored Las Vegas by a combined 45 points in two meetings this season, including a 31-point rout in their last matchup, which was Vegas’ worst loss of the year.

Season Series

  • Game 1: Lynx 92, Aces 78
  • Game 2: Lynx 88, Aces 57

Last 5 Matchups

  • Minnesota is ahead 4–1 vs. Las Vegas

ATS Record in Series

  • The Lynx are 4–1 covering against the Aces during that stretch

Main Player Matchups

Napheesa Collier (MIN)

23.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.1 SPG: Collier works best facing up from the high post and attacking gaps before help can rotate. Minnesota runs angled screens and slips to get her space at the elbow, where she can shoot, drive, or hit cutters. Defensively, she plays early help and anticipates entry passes, which disrupts Vegas’s rhythm when they try to get A’ja set on the block.

A’ja Wilson (LVA)

22.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.3 BPG: Wilson is being overloaded in the half-court. Without consistent movement around her, she’s seeing hard doubles off the catch and has to reverse pivot or pull up without spacing. Her shot timing is still on point, but the reads are delayed, and Vegas hasn’t created enough motion to give her clean isolation chances.

X-Factors
  • Minnesota: Kayla McBride (42.1% from three) is a screen-heavy shooter who takes advantage of delayed rotations. If Vegas trails screens or hesitates to switch, she’ll find clean looks in rhythm coming off movement; Dorka Juhász anchors the rebounding effort and doesn’t need help boxing out. She’s quick to push the ball upcourt after a board, creating early mismatches before defenses set.
  • Vegas: Kelsey Plum needs downhill touches. When she starts her actions from the wing with a live dribble, she draws secondary help and opens kickouts. If she’s relegated to spot-ups, Vegas loses its perimeter pressure; Jackie Young can’t get caught ball-watching. Minnesota uses weak-side movement and cuts to pull defenders out of position, and Young’s off-ball awareness has to be tighter to avoid giving up clean looks at the rim.

Advanced Metrics Breakdown

Want some advanced metrics? You got it!

StatLynxAces

Offensive Rating

109.4 (1st)

101.1 (6th)

Defensive Rating

96.5 (1st)

100.5 (9th)

Net Rating

+12.9 (1st)

+0.6 (6th)

Pace

95.1 (10th)

97.3 (4th)

ATS Record

16-11-1

11-16

O/U Record

15-13

12-15

Our Best Bets

As for the best bets, we have three solid angles and a bonus prop that’s definitely worth a look!

BetConfidence LevelWhy Do We Like It?

Minnesota Lynx -230

High

Minnesota has outplayed Vegas in both meetings and is the more balanced team

Minnesota Lynx -5 (-110)

Medium-High

Won by 14 and 31 in the previous matchups; still undervalued against Vegas

Under 167 (-108)

Medium

Slower possessions and shot selection could keep this below the current line

A’ja Wilson Over 20.5 Points

Medium

Should get the volume, and even with defensive attention, she finds her looks

Final Thoughts

Final Score Prediction: Lynx 85, Aces 74

Minnesota’s depth and defensive discipline give them the advantage, and that’s why we add backing them to win. They’ve disrupted the Aces’ offensive rhythm in both previous meetings, limiting passing options and forcing contested shots. Vegas will need superhuman games from both Wilson and Plum just to stay in range.

If the Lynx control the pace by halftime? This could very well follow the same pattern as their earlier wins; smackdowns.

Best Bets Recap

  • Lynx ML (–230): High
  • Lynx –5: Medium-High
  • Under 167: Medium
  • A’ja Wilson Over 20.5 pts: Medium

Before placing your bets, always check the most up-to-date odds—lines can shift fast as game time approaches, so staying sharp could make all the difference. And to make sure you’re getting the best value, explore our list of top-rated sports betting sites.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Preview & Prediction (August 1, 2025)

When it comes to head-to-head results, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the clear favorites to win this game, having won 15 of their last H2H clashes. It has a 62.5% winning probability, much higher than the Tampa Bay Rays’ 37.5%, but H2H results don’t tell the whole story. The Tampa Bay Rays have the young fireballer Shane Baz on their side to take on the Dodgers.

Kershaw’s return for the Dodgers is something to look out for, especially with the Dodgers surging and the Tampa Bay Rays hovering at .500. We can also expect unpredictability on the home field due to the Tampa Bay Rays’ temporary venue change.

Game Details

  • Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (63-46) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (54-56)
  • Date & Time: Friday, August 1, 7:35 pm ET/ 4:35 pm PT
  • Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa Bay, FL
  • How to Watch: Watch on MLB Network, FDSSUN, SportsNet LA
  • Weather Forecast: 91° with intermittent clouds. Hot and humid conditions could favor offense, with warmer air aiding ball carry—especially meaningful in a hitter-friendly temporary venue.

Starting Pitching Matchup Breakdown

With Clayton Kershaw starring for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Shane Baz for the Tampa Bay Rays, here’s how the two players fare:

Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)

  • The player has a 4-2 record with a 3.62 ERA and 48 Ks in 47 innings.
  • He is a veteran, no doubt, but has reduced velocity, especially since this season is his first post-surgery.
  • We can expect high strikeout rates, as Clayton has a rich history of dominance with high strikeout rates against teams. And the Rays strike out 24.5% of the time.

Shane Baz (Rays)

  • He is a young fireballer with an 8-4 record, a 4.61 ERA, and 112 Ks in 105 innings.
  • His command has improved significantly, but we must note that he is still vulnerable to home runs and left-handed bats (LHB slash .284/.345/.515).
  • Despite his impressive performance, Shane has yet to face a lineup as deep as the LA Dodgers in recent times.

Offensive Trends and Team Form

When it comes to offensive trends and team form, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the edge. Here’s how their performance has been:

Los Angeles Dodgers Logo

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • The team has won 7 out of its last 10 matches and averages 5.7 runs per game in the same period.
  • We also have the Ohtani heat-up post-All-Star break with his 38-dinger, 73-RBI season, which are both team highs (.342 AVG, 6 HR in last 12).
  • The Dodgers are also #1 in MLB when it comes to slugging against RHP
Tampa Bay Rays Logo

Tampa Bay Rays

  • The team has a subpar performance in its last 10 games compared to the Dodgers. It won only 4 games and lost 6, and has also been inconsistent at the plate.
  • While Yandy Diaz remains a steady force for the team, the lineup remains inconsistent.
  • It is also worth noting that the team has struggled to manufacture runs without the long ball, a weakness that the Dodgers may exploit.

Head-to-Head and Historical Edge

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the edge when it comes to head-to-head stats. In its last 5 meetings against the Rays, the Dodgers have won 4 times, and its bullpen has held the Tampa Bay Rays to a .211 AVG in the last 6 matchups. We also get higher runs with the Dodgers at 118 compared to the Rays’ 94 (in their previous 24 head-to-head games).

Ballpark and Environment Factors

The Steinbrenner Field (AAA-level stadium) will play host to the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays clash. It has shorter dimensions that favor home run hitters. And the expected warm and humid weather could carry the ball.

As for the crowd, we expect the crowd to be the smallest for the Dodgers in three years. That’s because the game isn’t a true home match for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Live Betting Odds

Thinking about placing a bet on this matchup? Check out the latest odds and lines from FanDuel:

Bet TypeDodgersRays

Run Line

–1.5 (+108)

+1.5 (-130)

Moneyline

-144

+122

Total

Over 9 (-122)

Under 9 (+100)

Keep an eye on the odds—lines can shift quickly before first pitch, and staying updated gives you a better shot at locking in value before it moves.

Top Player Props to Consider

  • Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run—Excellent matchup vs. Baz’s four-seamer.
  • Clayton Kershaw Over 5.5 Strikeouts – If healthy, Rays’ swing-and-miss tendencies could give him value.
  • Yandy Díaz Over 1.5 Total Bases—Hottest bat for Tampa, likely to make contact vs. Kershaw.

Our Best Bets

1. Dodgers Moneyline – High Confidence

  • Why we like it: The Dodgers are simply the better team in nearly every area—offense, bullpen, and defensive consistency. Kershaw, even at 80%, brings postseason poise and knows how to attack inexperienced hitters. Meanwhile, Baz has struggled against patient, powerful lineups like LA’s.
  • Supporting Trends:
    • The Dodgers are 16–5 in their last 21 interleague games.
    • The Rays are 2–6 in their last 8 home games (though this is technically neutral).
  • Watch out for: If Kershaw is pulled early due to pitch count, the Dodgers’ bullpen will need to hold strong. Still, LA’s bullpen ranks in the top 5 in xFIP.

2. Over 8.5 – Medium Confidence

  • Why we like it: This ballpark (Steinbrenner Field) is smaller and favors hitters, especially with hot, humid Florida air in August. Both lineups have power threats, and Baz is prone to giving up multi-run innings.
  • Offensive angles:
    • The Dodgers average 5.2 runs/game vs. RHP.
    • The Rays’ bullpen has allowed a 4.45 ERA in the past 30 days.
  • X-factor: One early home run could break this open and force the losing team to chase—great for an over.

3. Shohei Ohtani HR or 2+ Bases – Medium Confidence

  • Why we like it: Ohtani is red-hot and has a strong matchup vs. Baz, who struggles with lefties. Ohtani hits high-velocity fastballs (.321 AVG, .662 SLG vs. 95+ mph).
  • Prop options:
    • Safer play: Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases.
    • Higher risk/reward: Ohtani to hit a home run (+400 range typical).
  • Bonus angle: He may also walk or get hit by a pitch, but still expect him to be in RBI opportunities.

4. Dodgers -1.5 Run Line – Low Confidence

  • Why we like it: If the Dodgers win, there’s a good chance it’s by more than one run. They have the offensive firepower to pull away late.
  • However…
    • The neutral-site field could limit crowd pressure.
    • Tampa Bay has late-inning fights and plays tight games (over 50% of wins by 1 run).
  • Use this bet if: You’re chasing +EV or want a parlay leg with higher payout potential.

Our Final Verdict: Experience Over Youth

Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 6, Tampa Bay Rays 3

The LA Dodgers have the firepower and, most importantly, the experience, which gives them the upper hand, even on the road. You can also expect Kershaw to go 5+ innings and hand off to a solid bullpen. The Rays, on the other hand, will likely struggle to string hits against LA’s lefty-righty mix.

Before betting on Dodgers vs. Rays or any upcoming game, take a look at our sports betting strategies and don’t forget to line shop with trusted sportsbooks—check our top sports betting sites.

The Underdog Advantage: How to Spot and Capitalize on Upset Opportunities

Although upsets are relatively rare in sports betting, there can be much to gain from making a successful pick on an underdog team or player—you can enjoy a much bigger payout than usual and get the satisfaction of spotting an opportunity that most other people missed.

Picking bets where you can take advantage of an upset can’t be done by the seat of your pants. Bettors who find these opportunities look at statistical analysis and head-to-head matchups on both teams or players involved in the wager. You must also understand the reason the lines move, be it for the legitimate likelihood of the outcome or the bookmakers trying to balance out the betting action.

We’ll discuss how to spot and capitalize on underdog bets where you can seize opportunities on upsets. Remember that these bets involve solid research and shouldn’t be used as a day-to-day strategy. Read our guide to betting upsets, and you’ll learn when to strike, the best ways to bet on an upset, and how to use stats and data to inform your approach.

What Is an Upset?

An upset in sports betting is an entirely unexpected result. It occurs when the team or player favored to win doesn’t come through. The underdog wins over the favored player or team (who should take them handily).

Betting on upsets means that you’re getting longer odds because the likelihood of the underdog outcome is less likely to happen. However, getting the bet on the underdog right results in a bigger payout than you’d get betting on your favorite team.

Steelers

Browns

-120

+230

In the example above, the Pittsburgh Steelers are heavily favored to win over the Cleveland Browns, and a $120 bet will profit $100. However, a $100 bet on Cleveland can yield a profit of $230 if they can pull off an upset over the Steelers. You can see that betting on Cleveland has longer odds, but you’ll profit more due to their unlikelihood of winning.

Betting on the underdog team can be much more profitable, but you cannot bet on the underdog willy-nilly and cross your fingers, hoping for them to win. Spotting good underdog betting opportunities with online sports betting is rooted in understanding why lines and odds change before the game and knowing how to identify overreactions in betting markets that create value. Additionally, researching each of your selections using statistical analysis and historical data is crucial. We’ll get into these ideas in the next section, so read on!

How Do You Predict an Upset in Sports Betting?

Before we understand the various strategies for predicting upsets in sports betting, know that upsets only happen occasionally. The favorite usually always wins, so you should expect to lose much of the time when you’re betting on upsets. Betting the underdog is inherently riskier, and you see this with the longer odds and larger potential payout. The excellent news about betting on upsets is that you don’t have to win every bet to make a profit.

Use these strategies and tricks for pinpointing upset opportunities and making the best picks possible:

Look at the Entire Context

The best bets are grounded in statistics and research—the key to long-term success in online sports betting. Working off your gut instinct, hunches, or what other people are anecdotally telling you doesn’t produce the successful results you’ll get from analyzing statistics and historical data. After all, studying prior teams’ or players’ history can be a good indicator of what could happen in the future.

So, what information are you looking into to inform these upset bets? A few of the critical factors you should be examining include the following:

  • Keep in the loop on player injuries or suspensions. Sometimes, it doesn’t make much of a difference, but it could impact the outcome if it’s one of the key players. Injuries or suspensions on the favorite team, in particular, are reasonable indications that an upset is imminent.
  • Check the weather before the game. If the forecast calls for snow, rain, or some other unideal condition, these are good times to bet on upsets because many of them occur during low-scoring games when the weather is terrible.
  • Keep track of which teams have to travel. If the favorite team has to travel through a few time zones to get to the game, they are prone to poor performance due to jet lag or bad sleep.

Good research is your key to staying ahead of public betting sentiment and finding situations where upsets are likelier to happen. There’s still a place for betting based on your gut, but it’s only best when it’s coupled with numbers, historical data, and looking at the complete context of the game or matchup.

Use Data and Statistics to Analyze the Teams or Players

After looking at the entire context of the upcoming game or event, it’s time to research the teams or players who will be participating. Recent performances and current form can’t be emphasized when choosing your upset betting opportunities. Regardless of who the favorite or the underdog is, take some time to see how each team or player has performed recently. You can get a good idea of which momentum is moving, which could be a more accurate indicator of who will win.

Aside from determining where the primary momentum is going, there are a few other factors to consider before betting on an upset:

  • Think about two teams facing off with a history of solid defense. It won’t be a high-scoring game, but these are fertile grounds for upsets.
  • If the teams have opposite strengths, like the underdog being good at defense and the favorite being good at offense, an upset is less likely to occur. Look for teams with similar strengths—these bets are ripe for upsets.
  • Consider betting on upsets if you’re dealing with a strong team with a super specific Achilles heel, like a quarterback who chokes occasionally.
  • It’s essential to look at coaching, too. You might have a strong team with a coach who tends to follow the same strategies and style versus a weaker team with a coach who can better adapt to unexpected situations. These are prime opportunities to bet on upsets, too.

As mentioned before, looking for recent performances, such as the last five to ten games, can give you much insight into the team’s current form and the likelihood of how well they’ll perform in their next matchup.

The Importance of Line Movement

Upsets can be profitable for bettors because of the line movement in online sports betting. Knowing why lines move and how they affect value for the underdog team or competitor is the other half of successful upset betting that you’ll want to pair with the statistics and research you’re doing to inform your selections.

What Is Line Movement?

Line movement in sports betting occurs when the bookmakers adjust the odds, basically, the likelihood of each outcome, to accommodate changes like the weather, injuries, trades, coaching changes, or a switch in the venue. Line movement occurs sometimes because the bookmakers are attempting to accurately reflect the likelihood of who will win or lose.

Green Up Arrow and Red Down Arrow

However, line movement is influenced by how people bet on the game or match.

Bookmakers want relatively even action on either side of a bet to be profitable no matter the outcome. If the book sees that a lot of the public is backing the favorite, which happens all the time, they offer a reduced price on the odds for betting on the underdog to incentivize people to place bets on the dog. This creates value that appeals to those who are looking for a deal.

So, to balance the betting action, the books usually have odds that don’t truly reflect the likelihood of each outcome. This is why good research on your betting selections is essential. You can’t always trust the books’ numbers. The odds could actually signify the actual likelihood of who will win or lose, or they could be significantly skewed!

The Public Bets the Favorite

The casual betting public is usually drawn to wagering on the biggest names in sports and games where many points will be scored. This is why you see a lot of recreational bettors betting on your favorite team or competitor. You can find some good opportunities for betting on an upset with games like these, where a lot of the betting public will heavily favor one side because the books are bound to discount the odds for the dog—line movement. It can give you an excellent idea of what the public thinks!

Ways to Bet on Upsets

The best way to bet on upsets is with singles bets like money lines (betting on the winner), point spreads (betting the margin of victory), or over/unders (betting on the final combined score).

Money Lines

Money lines are bets where you try to predict the winner of the game correctly. Let’s go over an example of how you can successfully bet on upset for an upcoming football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Green Bay Packers:

Bengals

Packers

-220

+220

According to your favorite online sportsbooks, these are the odds of either team winning. The implied probability for each set of odds is as follows:

Bengals

Packers

68.75%

31.25%

You begin researching both teams to see if there’s a chance for an upset to occur here, where the Packers can win over the Bengals. This is what you find that indicates an upset is possible:

  • The Cincinnati Bengals have won the last three games in a row, but they’ve been close each time.
  • One of their linebackers is on suspension, which could affect the outcome, though it’s not sure.
  • If you consult historical data and look at prior games between the Bengals and the Packers, you will find that the Packers have won quite a few games against Cincinnati.

Despite this research, the Bengals remain the favorite to win this upcoming game. However, based on the statistics and data you’ve reviewed, you give them a lower probability of winning. You give them a 1 in 5 shot of reigning victorious over the Packers, which translates into 20%. When you compare this with the implied probability of 31.25% of Green Bay winning, you smell an upset, but you’ll want to get the best price possible on the odds for betting, which shouldn’t be hard considering the situation at hand!

Knowing that the Bengals are favored to win, you know all too well that most of the public’s money will go toward Cincinnati, forcing the book to lower their price on the odds for Green Bay. When betting on the Bengals gets hyped up, watch for the odds to get longer but for the prices to go down in your favor. When the line moves, place your bet!

Point Spreads

One of the safer routes for betting on upsets is doing it through point spreads or handicap betting, where you’re trying to predict the margin of victory correctly. Bettors can get excellent value on bets where the favorite is expected to win by a wide margin. You’ll get a lot of casual bettors wagering on the favorite, thus creating some good value on the odds for the dog.

Let’s look at another example of the Cincinnati and Green Bay game to give you a little more context:

Bengals

Packers

–3.5 (-110)

+3.5 (-110)

Using standard American odds of -110, a bet for the favored Bengals to win means that they must win by over 4 points; otherwise, it’s considered a lost bet. Betting on the Packers results in a win if they win outright over the Bengals or lose by less than 4 points. If you’re dealing with two teams that are evenly matched when scoring points, you could be dealing with a game that could go either way, especially with a point spread this narrow.

Follow the steps outlined in our section on finding upset opportunities in moneyline betting and apply them to spread betting. Just wait for the line to move and then spring into action to get the best value possible.

Wrapping Up: Turning Underdog Insight into Betting Success

Betting on underdogs isn’t just about chasing big payouts—it’s about identifying value where others overlook it. Through careful research, understanding of line movement, and close attention to situational factors like injuries, travel, and recent performance, you can begin to spot upset opportunities that casual bettors miss. Upset betting may not produce frequent wins, but with a calculated approach, even a modest hit rate can yield long-term profitability.

Ultimately, success in underdog betting hinges on preparation and discipline. By combining statistical analysis with market awareness—like spotting sharp money or tracking public betting patterns—you equip yourself to bet smarter, not harder. Whether you’re new to betting or sharpening an existing strategy, learning how to capitalize on underdog value can give you a real edge in a market that often favors the favorite.

Want to level up your betting game?