Why Prediction Markets Scare Regulators

Prediction markets are here to take over the world. Not really, but there should be a prediction market for that very thought. Even if it’s silly, regulators would probably still fear the potential of it becoming true.

In all seriousness, prediction markets are a problem area for regulators. This isn’t just sports betting. Rather, prediction markets turn beliefs or opinions about actual real-life events into tradeable prices.

This can effectively operate as a public information alarm. The downside in the eyes of regulators? It can go against official narratives in elections, for policy, and so much more, while also potentially manipulating incentives and blurring lines between gambling, investing, and global decision-making.

A quick buck for a sharp prediction bettor just might burn the world down. Not really, but regulators are already fearing the worst – and they have (some) reason to.

The Core Problem: Markets Predict Better than Institutions

If you’re an institution, it’s a bad look when markets predict outcomes more accurately than you do. It doesn’t happen every time, but it’s happening with enough regularity for people to start taking notice.

Things like expert panels, polls, and forecasting models aren’t as accurate as they used to be. And there’s a simple reason for that. Having a wrong opinion doesn’t cost you anything inherently, but wrong prices can absolutely cost you money.

Naturally, when market price contradicts messages from the top, credibility is questioned:

• Market is right = institution is out of touch
• Market is wrong = institution is weak for suppressing it
• No matter what, authority becomes fragile and is questioned

Prediction markets aren’t just earning people money. They are (at least sometimes) potentially swaying real-world issues and undermining massive institutions in the process.

Even if this isn’t happening consistently at a high level, the belief that it’s happening at all raises major concern for the people and entities it impacts the most.

What Prediction Markets Actually Are

New to prediction markets? Perhaps I should have led with what they were before shoving an institutional fear down your throat. No matter, they’re simple to define and even easier to comprehend:

Prediction markets, by definition, are event-based contracts that resolve on real-world outcomes.

They have binary or range-based pricing tied to probability, not just someone’s opinion. You can find most of the top markets at popular prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Put simply, you can do more than just predict the future; you can profit from it. Virtually anything that can or will happen in the real world has a price, and you get to decide what the price is, how likely something is, and whether you think it will happen.

The Official Regulatory Objections (And Why They’re Incomplete)

Prediction markets sound pretty great, am I right? In theory, sure, but not everyone is a fan, and there are pitfalls to be aware of for both consumers and outside entities alike.

Here’s what regulators dislike about them the most:

1. Consumer protection
2. Market manipulation
3. Election interference

The first fear is that consumers are not properly protected and that they can be exposed to financial harm, gambling addiction, or even deceptive products. This risk isn’t new or any different than regular sports betting or general gambling, however.

Mark manipulation is another fear from regulators, as bad actors could distort prices to the point where they mislead participants or deliver false signals. Given the fact that prediction markets are often interpreted as the truth, the potential manipulation of markets and consumers exists.

Additionally, election-related markets could possibly impact voter behavior. This can create erroneous narratives, enable foreign interference, or simply disrupt the election process altogether. Regulators are concerned market odds could be confused as official forecasts or misused as political messaging tools.

Why These Explanations Don’t Hold Up

The easiest rebuttal to this is that prediction markets aren’t much different than regular gambling. Whether you bet on a sporting event or pull a lever on a slot, you’re assuming risk, whether it be financial or emotional.

Market manipulation also already exists in the form of equities, crypto, the media, and even polling. Social media and other platforms can sway voters just as easily as a prediction market can, if not more so.

The Real Fears from Regulators

There are the public concerns regulators have, and then there are the real fears they have internally. Here’s what they’re actually worried about.

Why Political Markets Trigger the Most Pushback

Regulators don’t care about what sports team you bet on or how much you win at the slot machine. But they do care how your opinion or prediction market wagering can impact things that actually matter.

Things like elections, which lead to law changes, state and federal shakeups, and a great fluctuation when it comes to the balance of power.

Elections morph from a 50/50 toss-up to high-stakes prediction contracts. Markets price outcomes before votes are counted, which can show where everyone is leaning – or more importantly, influence where they should go – before the votes are ever cast.

This can shape perception, undermine legitimacy narratives, and lead to market manipulation. Suddenly, your vote and what laws get passed are truly in the power of your hands, and that isn’t necessarily what the regulators actually want.

The CFTC Gray Zone Problem

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exists to regulate derivatives tied to commodities, interest rates, and financial risk. Markets that price human beliefs or social outcomes aren’t part of the plan.

Prediction markets float around somewhere between financial instruments and informational tools, making them tough to label under existing statutory authority.

Due to this, regulatory insight becomes erratic at best. Rather than clearly defined rules, platforms are subjected to informal guidance, no-action letters, or conditional approvals without much of a heads-up.

The result? Regulation ambiguity. That isn’t a spot regulators are comfortable with.

Why Regulators Prefer Polls Over Markets

Regulators love a good poll. They’re soft, explainable, and easy to deny. They don’t hurt anyone, and they keep the control in the hands of the regulators.

Markets, on the other hand, create hard prices with transparent financial backing. In addition, bad polls can be easily dismissed, while poor market prices can expose systemic blind spots.

It keeps going back to the running theme; regulators like to regulate, and they want to regulate you, your voice, and the outcome of anything you’re attached to. They can’t do that with prediction markets.

Prediction Markets Threaten Control, Not Safety

There’s an argument to be made for and against prediction markets. Not in the eyes of regulators, though.

If you ask them, prediction markets replace authority with probability, they swap narrative for math, and they remove expert opinion and turn to aggregated incentives.

Regulators aren’t afraid of betting. They’re afraid of losing informational dominance. When you use prediction markets, you’re not doing anything that’s less safe than any kind of betting you already enjoy. You’re just partaking in the process of threatening the regulator’s control.

Will We Discover Alien Life by 2035? Odds, Science & Prediction Market Speculation

For thousands of years, humans have looked up at the night sky and wondered the same thing: Are we alone?

That question used to live in philosophy books and science fiction novels. Now it lives in research labs, government briefings… and increasingly, in prediction markets.

We’re no longer just speculating about alien life—we’re building the tools to find it. Space telescopes are analyzing distant atmospheres for biological gases. Robotic probes are studying icy moons hiding oceans beneath their surfaces. Artificial intelligence is scanning the cosmos for patterns no human could detect.

For the first time in history, discovering alien life doesn’t feel impossible. It feels… scheduled. And that changes everything.

Because once something becomes measurable, it becomes tradable. Traders price probabilities. Markets assign odds. And suddenly, one of the biggest questions in human history isn’t just philosophical—it’s financial.

So here’s the real question:

Will we discover alien life by 2035?

And if so… how would you price it today? 🚀

What Would “Discovering Alien Life” Actually Mean?

Before you can price a market like this, you have to define the terms.

“Alien life” sounds dramatic. But in scientific and prediction market terms, it’s much more specific. A market can’t settle on vibes. It needs criteria.

If a contract asked, “Will alien life be discovered by 2035?” the resolution would almost certainly hinge on something measurable and verifiable.

Here’s what would realistically qualify:

A discovery would likely require at least one of the following:

• Confirmed microbial life detected on another planet or moon
• Strong, repeatable biosignatures (like oxygen + methane combinations) in an exoplanet atmosphere
• Fossilized remains of ancient organisms confirmed through peer review
• Official recognition by a major scientific authority such as NASA or a comparable international body

Notice what’s missing.

It doesn’t require:

• Intelligent civilizations
• Radio contact
• UFO sightings
• Government whistleblower testimony

Those are cultural events. Markets need scientific confirmation.

There’s also an important gray area: what if scientists announce “strong evidence” but stop short of definitive proof? That’s where contract wording becomes critical. Prediction markets typically define resolution triggers in advance, often tied to:

• Peer-reviewed publication
• Official press conference
• Named institutional confirmation
• Specific language like “confirmed extraterrestrial biological life”

This is why settlement rules matter so much in long-term scientific markets. The difference between “evidence of possible life” and “confirmed life” could be the difference between a winning and losing ticket.

In short, discovering alien life by 2035 doesn’t mean first contact. It likely means microbes. And that makes the bet far more plausible than most people think.

Why 2035 Is the Sweet Spot for Speculation

2035 isn’t just a random futuristic year that sounds good in a headline.

It sits at the intersection of science timelines, funding cycles, and technological acceleration. In other words, it’s far enough away for major breakthroughs… but close enough to actually price.

Think about how long space missions take. Planning, funding approval, engineering, launch windows, travel time, data analysis—it’s a decade-long pipeline. Many of the missions currently underway or in development are expected to deliver meaningful data within the next 10 years.

That makes 2035 a natural checkpoint.

By then, several key developments will have matured:

• Years of atmospheric data from advanced telescopes analyzing exoplanets
• Expanded Mars sampling programs with deeper geological insight
• Ocean-world exploration progress from moons like Europa and Enceladus
• AI-driven signal analysis improvements scanning massive cosmic datasets
• International collaboration growth, increasing total discovery bandwidth

From a market perspective, 2035 also works because it creates a clean binary contract: discovery by a fixed date, yes or no.

Too short of a window (like 2027) and the probability feels negligible. Too far out (like 2100) and the market becomes difficult to price meaningfully.

2035 lands in the middle. It’s speculative—but not fantasy. And that’s exactly where prediction markets thrive.

The Science That Makes This Bet Legitimate

At first glance, betting on alien life sounds like science fiction.

But the reason this question is tradable at all is because the science has moved from theory to measurable probability. We’re no longer asking if planets exist beyond our solar system. We’re cataloging them. We’re analyzing them. We’re studying their chemistry from light-years away.

This bet isn’t based on imagination. It’s based on accelerating capability.

Let’s break down why.

Exoplanets Changed the Equation

Thirty years ago, we weren’t even sure planets outside our solar system were common.

Now we know they’re everywhere.

Thousands of exoplanets have been confirmed, and many orbit within their star’s “habitable zone,” where liquid water could exist. More importantly, tools like the James Webb Space Telescope can now analyze atmospheric composition by studying how starlight filters through a planet’s atmosphere.

Scientists are specifically looking for chemical imbalances that suggest biological activity.

For example:

• Oxygen and methane existing together (they normally cancel each other out)
• Large amounts of water vapor
• Carbon-based molecules linked to metabolism
• Atmospheric disequilibrium that can’t be explained geologically

None of these alone prove life—but together, they strengthen the case. And that’s exactly how probabilities shift.

Ocean Worlds Are the Quiet Favorites

If you had to pick a betting favorite for “first alien life discovered,” many scientists would point closer to home.

Moons like Europa and Enceladus are believed to contain subsurface oceans beneath thick ice crusts. These oceans are:

• Salty
• Warmed by tidal forces
• Rich in organic chemistry

On Earth, life thrives around deep-sea hydrothermal vents without sunlight. That makes ocean moons scientifically plausible candidates for microbial ecosystems.

This is why many hypothetical betting boards price ocean worlds shorter than distant exoplanets. They’re reachable. They’re testable. And they’re chemically promising.

AI Is Expanding the Search Exponentially

The search for extraterrestrial signals used to rely heavily on human review.

Now, machine learning systems scan massive radio datasets for anomalies in seconds. The SETI initiative has increasingly integrated AI to identify patterns that traditional filters would miss.

AI doesn’t increase the odds of life existing. But it dramatically increases the odds of detecting something subtle. That’s a key distinction.

Discovery Probability Is Compounding

When you combine all of this, the legitimacy of the bet becomes clearer.

We now have:

• Better detection tools
• More planets identified
• Stronger chemical modeling
• Faster data processing
• Global scientific collaboration

Each of these individually increases discovery odds slightly. Together, they compound.

That doesn’t mean discovery by 2035 is likely. But it does mean the probability isn’t negligible—and that’s all a market needs. Once the probability moves above zero in a meaningful way, it becomes tradable. And right now, scientifically speaking, it absolutely is.

Our Hypothetical Betting Board: Alien Life by 2035

Now for the fun part.

If a major prediction market opened a contract today asking:

“Will confirmed extraterrestrial life be discovered by December 31, 2035?”

How might it price?

Below is a purely speculative, editorial betting board — not real market odds, but structured the way a serious exchange might list them. The goal isn’t to predict perfectly. It’s to think probabilistically.

Because once you assign odds, you’re forced to confront how likely you really think this is.

🛸 Will Alien Life Be Discovered by 2035?

At +190, the “Yes” side reflects meaningful but minority probability. The market isn’t dismissing the possibility — but it still views discovery by 2035 as an uphill outcome.

Notice something important: the “No” side being -250 doesn’t mean discovery is impossible. It simply reflects that breakthroughs in science rarely follow clean timelines. Even if life exists, confirmation could slip beyond the deadline.

That’s where value hunters would start looking.

🔬 What Kind of Life Would It Be?

If discovery happens, the type of life matters. Markets would almost certainly offer sub-contracts like this:

Microbial life being favored makes sense. It’s scientifically plausible and doesn’t require advanced civilization detection.

Intelligent life at +1200? That’s long-shot territory. Not impossible — just statistically distant.

The “Strong biosignatures only” option is particularly interesting. Markets may differentiate between “confirmed organisms” and “compelling atmospheric evidence.” That gray zone could create pricing inefficiencies depending on contract wording.

🌍 Where Would It Be Found?

Location markets would be some of the most dynamic.

Ocean moons leading the board reflects current scientific sentiment. They check more life-support boxes than Mars does today.

Exoplanet atmospheres aren’t far behind — especially as telescope resolution improves. And “Somewhere unexpected” exists because breakthroughs rarely follow consensus.

Markets price uncertainty. And in a question this big, uncertainty is the entire story.

📢 Who Announces It First?

Even the announcing body could become tradable.

NASA being favored reflects funding dominance and mission infrastructure. But collaborative international announcements could easily move shorter over time. Science has become increasingly global.

“Accidental discovery” may look like a long shot — but history is full of unexpected breakthroughs.

The real takeaway from this board isn’t the specific numbers. It’s this:

Once you can structure a market this clearly, the question stops being science fiction. It becomes probability.

Why Prediction Markets Love This Question

Some events are messy. Others are perfect for markets.

“Will we discover alien life by 2035?” checks nearly every box that prediction market operators and serious traders look for.

First, it’s binary. Either confirmed extraterrestrial life is announced by the deadline, or it isn’t. Clean resolution structure is everything in event contracts.

Second, it has a fixed horizon. Long-dated contracts allow pricing to evolve over time. New missions launch. Data improves. Scientific papers get published. Every new piece of information nudges probability slightly.

Third, it has massive public interest. Markets thrive on engagement. This isn’t a niche economic indicator — it’s one of the biggest existential questions humanity can ask.

Here’s why this type of question is especially attractive to prediction markets:

• Clear resolution authority (scientific confirmation)
• Gradual information flow over years
• Media-driven sentiment swings
• Low emotional bias compared to political markets
• Strong narrative appeal

Unlike elections or sports, this isn’t influenced by last-minute momentum. It’s driven by evidence. That makes pricing more analytical — and often more inefficient early on.

Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket specialize in exactly these kinds of forward-looking macro questions. Long timelines allow traders to buy positions when probability feels mispriced and hold as information accumulates.

There’s also something deeper at play.

Prediction markets aren’t just about money. They’re about collective belief formation.

As scientific confidence increases, the market price would slowly rise. If skepticism grows, it would fall. In real time, you’d be watching humanity quantify its own optimism.

And that’s what makes this question so compelling. It’s not just “Are we alone?” It’s “How confident are we becoming?”

How Would an Alien Life Market Settle?

This is the part casual readers skip. Serious traders don’t.

In prediction markets, the event matters. But the resolution criteria matter more. A contract doesn’t settle based on excitement, headlines, or social media trends. It settles based on predefined rules.

If an “Alien Life Discovered by 2035” contract were listed, it would likely include language specifying:

• What qualifies as “life”
• Which authority must confirm it
• What deadline applies
• What evidence standard triggers resolution

For example, a clean contract might state:

“Resolves YES if a recognized national or international scientific authority confirms the discovery of extraterrestrial biological life on or before December 31, 2035.”

That sounds simple — but gray areas are where things get interesting.

Consider these edge cases:

• A strong biosignature is detected, but scientists stop short of saying “confirmed life.”
• A major press conference announces probable life, but peer review lags.
• A discovery is later retracted or revised.
• Multiple agencies disagree on interpretation.

Does the contract resolve on initial announcement? Or after peer review? Or after formal publication?

These nuances matter because long-term scientific markets are uniquely prone to ambiguity.

Most structured exchanges (like Kalshi) predefine resolution sources — often tying them to official government releases, regulatory filings, or named institutions. Decentralized platforms may instead rely on oracle systems or community voting mechanisms.

That creates an additional layer of risk:

• Scientific risk (will life be found?)
• Timeline risk (will it happen before the deadline?)
• Resolution risk (will the wording qualify?)

In long-dated markets like this, resolution risk can be just as important as the discovery itself. Because sometimes, the biggest edge isn’t predicting the future. It’s reading the fine print correctly.

The Risks Bettors Underestimate

Speculative markets are exciting. But they’re also slow, nuanced, and occasionally frustrating.

An alien life contract wouldn’t behave like a Super Bowl prop. It would move gradually, sometimes flat for years, then spike on a single headline. That kind of structure creates risks many casual traders overlook.

Here are the biggest ones:

• Ambiguous discoveries – Scientists might announce “compelling evidence” without using the word confirmed. Markets may not settle on strong hints alone.
• Timeline slippage – Missions get delayed. Budgets shift. Launch windows move. A discovery in 2036 doesn’t pay a 2035 contract.
• Definition drift – What qualifies as “life” may evolve over time, especially with new biochemical theories.
• Resolution technicalities – If the contract requires confirmation from a specific authority, unofficial discoveries may not count.
• Liquidity risk – Long-dated contracts often have thinner trading volume, making exits harder.
• Regulatory shifts – Scientific or geopolitical tensions could affect market access or platform availability.

There’s also psychological risk.

Long-horizon trades test patience. You may hold a position for years with minimal movement. That’s uncomfortable for traders used to daily action.

And then there’s the biggest risk of all:

Even if life exists…It may simply not be found in time. In markets like this, you’re not betting on belief. You’re betting on timing, wording, and confirmation.

That’s a very different game.

If Alien Life Is Found… Markets Won’t Stop There

Discovery wouldn’t end the market. It would ignite it.

If confirmed extraterrestrial life is announced before 2035, the initial contract would settle — but that would only be the beginning of an entirely new ecosystem of tradable questions.

Think about what would immediately follow:

• Will intelligent life be discovered within 25 years?
• Will humans make direct contact by 2100?
• Will alien biology reshape medicine or energy research?
• Will global markets rally or panic in the first 48 hours?
• Will governments release classified space data within five years?

A confirmed discovery would create one of the largest informational shocks in modern history. And prediction markets thrive on informational shocks.

In fact, traders who positioned early on the “Yes” side wouldn’t just win their contract — they’d likely shape pricing in the next generation of markets. That’s the overlooked angle here.

The first confirmed life wouldn’t close a chapter. It would open a whole new category of probability.

So… Is Betting on Alien Life Smart or Just Fun?

The honest answer? It depends on how you approach it.

If you’re chasing headlines and hoping for viral announcements, this probably isn’t your market. Scientific discovery doesn’t move on hype — it moves on data.

But if you’re comfortable thinking in decades instead of weeks, this becomes a fascinating macro trade.

It appeals most to:

• Long-term probability thinkers
• Traders who understand information lag
• Prediction market enthusiasts who enjoy edge-case scenarios
• Investors comfortable holding positions through quiet periods

This isn’t about believing in aliens. It’s about evaluating discovery timelines.

In many ways, this is less speculative than betting on political events or technological adoption curves. The scientific groundwork is already underway. Missions are funded. Data is flowing.

The real question isn’t whether life exists. It’s whether we’ll detect it soon enough to satisfy the contract. That distinction is where the edge lives.

Final Verdict: The First Discovery Humanity Might Price Before It Happens

For thousands of years, humans wondered if we were alone without any way to measure the answer.

Now we have telescopes reading distant atmospheres. We have probes studying alien oceans. We have AI scanning signals across galaxies.

And we have markets assigning probabilities to the outcome. That shift is profound.

Whether or not alien life is discovered by 2035, something remarkable is already happening: humanity is quantifying its own cosmic optimism.

The idea of extraterrestrial life is no longer just philosophical. It’s probabilistic. It can be debated. Modeled. Traded. And that may be the most fascinating part of all.

If life is found by 2035, it will be one of the greatest discoveries in human history. If it isn’t, the search continues — and so does the market.

Because the ultimate wager isn’t on aliens. It’s on how fast human curiosity turns into confirmation. And that’s a bet the entire planet is quietly making. 🚀

2026 Daytona 500 Odds, Picks, and Prediction

It’s time to rev your NASCAR betting engines, as the 2026 NASCAR season officially gets going with the 2026 Daytona 500 firing off this weekend.

All of the best NASCAR drivers will be on hand for the biggest race of the year, with three-time winner Denny Hamlin coming in with the best Daytona 500 odds, per DraftKings.

Hamlin is just one of many drivers with +2000 odds or better, while there are a million ways to look at this race. Two-time defending champion William Byron will have his work cut out for him, as he’ll be starting all the way back in the 39th slot.

That alone is a fun narrative to track, while it will be interesting to see if a newcomer can win the Daytona 500 this year. Byron has won the last two Daytona 500 races, but we’d seen a different winner in each of the previous three runs following consecutive wins by Denny Hamlin.

It’s an exciting time, but what would make it even better is if we can come to a correct Daytona 500 prediction. Join me as I break down the latest odds and dissect the top challengers to the favored Hamlin.

Latest 2026 Daytona 500 Odds

Denny Hamlin enters as the favorite to win the 2026 Daytona 500 this year. He’ll start from the 22nd position, but if he can work his way up to the front, he can become just the third driver ever to secure four wins at this prestigious event.

He isn’t favored by much, and it’s arguable that it’s too much of a climb to feel amazing about his chances. After all, over 70% of Daytona 500 winners have come from a top-10 spot.

That might put more of an onus on the likes of Logano, Larson, or Busch. Busch starts off in the top position, while the other three are in the top-10.

Of the top-10 options, Keselowski and Elliott may project as the most intriguing betting values.

As I said, there’s a lot to consider. If you’re betting on who will win the Daytona 500, you do need to consider track history, positioning, and recent form. Even then, you’re dealing with a huge, competitive field, making other bets (top 3, top 10) stand out as viable options.

With that, let’s dig into this year’s Daytona 500 betting odds and work our way to a final winner prediction.

Why is Denny Hamlin Favored to Win the Dayton 500?

Hamlin is one of the best drivers in NASCAR. He pulls in as the Daytona 500 favorite due to his dominance at this event, having won back-to-back in 2019 and 2020, and three times overall.

Hamlin has admittedly not won here since 2020, but he knows this track as well as anyone. While he hasn’t nabbed a win in five years, he’s still been in terrific form, as he had six wins and 14 finishes inside the top-5 last year.

The clock is ticking on Hamlin to make history, as the 45-year-old is no longer a young pup. However, the track history, talent, and recent form all combine to make him a viable bet. Age and starting position (22nd) do work against him, however.

Top 2026 Daytona 500 Contenders

Hamlin doesn’t have as clear of a path to victory as you’d like for a betting favorite. Due to that, it might make sense to look at some of the top 2026 Daytona 500 challengers:

Best Daytona 500 Sleeper Pick for 2026

• Kyle Larson (+1600)
• Chase Elliott (+1600)
• Brad Keselowski (+1800)
• Chase Briscoe (+2200)

I’m not as excited to lay money on the non-contenders, but there’s still reason to give them a look. For one, they all offer betting pricing. Secondly, some of them are still top-shelf drivers who either have won the Daytona 500 or are definitely good enough to get it done.

Larson checks virtually every box. He’s starting near the front in the 8th position, he’s in his prime at age 33, and he’s still driving as well as ever. Last year, he nabbed three first-place finishes and had 12 other races where he cracked the top-5. He’s not come all that close to winning here, but five top-11 runs keep him in the conversation.

Much like Larson, Chase Elliott has never won the big one.

He’s even younger at 30, however, and he continues to be in top form with two wins and nine more top-5 runs in 2025. He will also start the 2026 Daytona 500 from the 6th spot, so he has the perfect recipe for a first-time winner.

I wouldn’t rule out Brad Keselowski, either. He’s getting up there at age 42, but he will understandably be eager to get that elusive Daytona 500 win. Keselowski starts from the 9th hole, giving him a decent chance to put himself in the record books. He hasn’t finished better than 9th here in his last 11 tries, however.

Let’s aim a bit higher with Chase Briscoe, who may be the truest definition of a Daytona 500 sleeper when looking at this group. The 31-year-old is not the most accomplished NASCAR driver, but he is starting out of the 2nd slot in this race, and he really started heating up last year.

Briscoe scored three wins in 2025, as well as 12 other finishes inside the top-5. One of those actually came at last year’s Daytona 500, and he finished third here in 2022. He looks like a sneaky bet, and his starting position might just give him the boost he needs to shock the NASCAR world, while returning elite betting value in the process.

Top 2026 Daytona 500 Longshot Bet

Want a 2026 Daytona 500 bet that nobody will see coming? I’ll give you two.

One is a youngster who could decide to leave his mark early. I’m talking about the 23-year-old Carson Hocevar, who really started to prove his worth last year, where he cracked the top-10 in 13 different races, with two coming as runner-up.

Could Hocevar be ready to ascend the NASCAR ranks? It’s not crazy, especially when you consider he gets to start out of the 6th spot. Last year showed he can hang with the big boys. Now he can show everyone in a very big way (as a +2800 bet) that he has what it takes to beat them on the biggest stage.

Let’s dream even bigger, eh? Hocevar is a calculated risk with an ascending prospect, but sometimes a tried and true veteran can offer mind-boggling value, just as well. That has me liking Michael McDowell a bit.

McDowell is on his last legs at age 41, but he still did a fine job last year with 22 finishes inside the top-20 and six more inside the top-10. He didn’t win any races, but his last Cup Series victory came – you guessed it – at the Daytona 500 back in 2021.

He’s a longshot, to be sure, but McDowell finished 11th here last year, displayed solid overall form in 2025, and knows how to win this event. Considering he gets to start close to the front in the 10th spot, he feels like a pretty sneaky bet at his +4000 price tag.

Recent Daytona 500 Winners

2026 Daytona 500 Prediction: Who Will Win This Year?

Betting on NASCAR tends to be a bit of a crapshoot. The same studs tend to have the best odds to win, but figuring out who actually wins is a lot easier said than done.

For the Daytona 500, I tend to think someone up front has a good shot at winning. A crash or epic performance from someone in the back can end that logic in a hurry, but history still suggests as much.

All things considered, I think Ryan Blaney is the best bet.

Blaney has solid +1000 odds to win the 2026 Daytona 500, he’s starting up front, he’s in fantastic form, and he’s done really well here.

A former winner could always rise up and get the win, but I’d bet on a new driver adding their name to the record books. Blaney stands out as the best contender to back, while Chase Briscoe (+2200) is probably the most alluring value bet this year.

2025-26 NBA All-Star Weekend Betting Guide – Odds & Predictions for Dunk Contest and More

The 2025-26 NBA All-Star Weekend is almost here. The action gets started in Los Angeles at the Intuit Dome on February 13th, with the biggest events going down on Saturday and Sunday.

Even better than the events themselves? You can bet on NBA All-Star Weekend markets. That includes the NBA Slam Dunk Contest, the 3-Point Contest, and the NBA All-Star Game itself.

This is a fun but volatile event, so it’s understandable if you’re not entirely sure where to invest your cash. DraftKings has odds up for all of the main NBA All-Star markets, so let’s touch on each one and come away with some winning NBA All-Star Weekend predictions.

How to Bet on NBA All-Star Weekend

This is not normal NBA betting. However, there is still a huge edge, as the top basketball betting apps are never entirely sure how to price this stuff. To be frank, it’s kind of wild that they even offer all of these events when you realize how tough it is to set odds for them.

That said, you should consider the following before betting on NBA All-Star Weekend events:

• Player motivation
• Format changes
• Market misprices
• Player experience

Every year, something can change when it comes to the NBA All-Star events, while you always want to keep in mind just how motivated players are. For example, it’s been circling social media that the players do not take the actual NBA All-Star Game very seriously.

That could be interpreted as some players not giving a full effort (bet their Unders?), with Euro stars like Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic visibly goofing around in past years.

Players tend to be more motivated when it’s an individual contest, and all eyes are on them, though. The 3-Point Contest and the Dunk Contest specifically highlight specific player talent, and there is a certain amount of pride involved with winning both events.

With all of this in mind, your biggest edge is identifying where the top NBA sportsbooks missed the mark in terms of setting odds for this event. I’ll get into those as I break down each event.

NBA 3-Point Contest Betting Guide

This year’s 3-Point Contest should be fun, as it features sharpshooting rookie Kon Knueppel as the tentative favorite, plus a hobbled Damian Lillard as the top challenger.

Lillard is an interesting addition, as he’s yet to play a single regular-season minute due to rehabbing a torn Achilles. Is he a logical bet as the guy with the second-best odds? That’s a key decision bettors will have to make.

Before you bet on who will win the NBA 3-Point Contest, check out the latest odds.

NBA 3-Point Contest Odds for 2025-26

This is very interesting pricing, as a rookie has never won the NBA 3-Point Contest. Knueppel is as good of a shooter as you’ll find in the NBA right now, however, as he’s connecting on 43.1% of his deep shots so far and is in the running for NBA Rookie of the Year as well.

Still, the field is pretty competitive. Lillard may not be at full strength, but it doesn’t take much to shoot a basketball with little mobility being needed. Lillard’s speed from rack to rack may not be as good as everyone else’s, but being one of the best spot-up shooters in the game probably negates any downside.

Lillard knows how this contest plays out, too. He’s won twice before, winning consecutive 3-Point Contest titles in 2023 and 2024.

When betting on the NBA 3-Point Contest winner, consider shooting percentage, event history, and release. Players with a better set shot (as opposed to historically shooting more off the dribble) will have an edge, while a better shooting percentage in games should equate to a steadier shot without a defender on them.

All things considered, each player offers pretty appealing pricing. But who offers the most value, and who will win?

Best Value for 3-Point Contest: Bobby Portis (+1100)

You’re getting nice bang for your buck no matter who you back. But nobody offers more value or upside than Bobby Portis.

The Milwaukee Bucks sharpshooter is connecting at an absurd 45% clip from deep this year, and this is the exact type of player who can thrive in this contest. Why? Because most of the threes Portis attempts are spot up shots just like he’ll be taking in this contest.

Portis may have poor odds to actually win, but if I am betting on the 3-Point Contest, I’m definitely placing two bets; one on who I think will win and another on Portis due to his shooting style, conversion rate, and this sick price.

3-Point Contest Prediction

Damian Lillard is a fun wild card, but I don’t want to bet on an aging veteran coming off a shredded Achilles.

There is a case for the likes of Jamal Murray, Donovan Michell, Tyrese Maxey, and even Devin Booker. They’re all elite volume scorers, and they can hit from outside as well as anyone.

But nobody is more compelling than the rook. The history narrative is a fun one, and despite Kon being perhaps the most reliable outside shooter in this bunch, he’s still coming in at a palatable +350. I think we will get our first rookie winner this weekend.

Pick: Kon Knueppel (+350)

NBA Dunk Contest Betting Guide

The NBA Slam Dunk Contest isn’t what it once was. Michael Jordan and Vince Carter aren’t coming to rescue us, and even Mac McClung won’t save us from boredom.

That’s right, the three-time Dunk Contest champion has hung up his dunking shoes and won’t be on hand to defend his title. Instead, a new Dunk Contest winner will be crowned, and it’s up to bettors to predict who it will be.

This year’s Dunk Contest participants is admittedly not an exciting group on paper, but here’s the pricing for who will come away with the win.

2025-26 Dunk Contest Odds

This has to be the worst NBA Slam Dunk Contest field of all time. Carter Bryant is an exciting prospect with elite dunking ability, but he may be the only legit threat in this group.

Bryant definitely has the athleticism to deliver some show-stopping dunks, and his +180 price tag indicates the best NBA sportsbooks agree he’s the likely winner. Or that’s just how people have been betting, anyways. Perhaps both.

The problem is that his competition is remarkably weak. Jaxson Hayes is a 7-footer who will find it difficult to impress the judges and crowd due to his size and length. He definitely can dunk well, but historically, big men don’t often fare well in these competitions.

If Hayes is going to stage the upset, he may need to be extra creative and show us something we’ve never seen before. The odds are against that happening.

If you’re betting against Carter Bryant, my advice is to stretch your neck for more value. Keshad Johnson is an undrafted second-year player that has torn up the G-League with 21.8 points per game. He’s also dropped the hammer with some thunderous dunks more than a few times.

The other option is rookie first-round draft pick Jase Richardson, who has been riding the bench for the Orlando Magic. He doesn’t have a clear path to making an impact in the NBA, but his high-flying dunking ability is a known fact.

Richardson and everyone else in this competition will be looking to make a name for themselves by winning this year’s Slam Dunk Contest. But who is the right pick?

Best NBA Dunk Contest Value Bet: Jase Richardson (+350)

The son of legendary dunker and NBA star Jason Richardson, Jase has had success in dunk contests in the past.

Richardson isn’t close to leaving his mark in NBA games just yet, but he has the size, athleticism, explosiveness, and creativity to steal the show this week.

Dunk Contest Prediction

Despite the 2025-26 NBA Dunk Contest looking pretty underwhelming on paper, I think people will be pleasantly surprised by the actual athletic talent and dunking ability we’re about to see.

It’s admittedly more fun to see household names doing a dunk-off, but all of these guys can deliver some wild dunks. Hayes feels like the least likely winner, but this could seriously be a three-man race that is tough to parse.

The case is solid for any of the other three, but my favorite value bet is also my pick to win. Richardson has pedigree, ideal size, past success in dunk contests, and he also has everything to gain by winning this.

The guy with the most alluring Dunk Contest odds just might be the one who wins it.

Pick: Jase Richardson (+350)

2025-26 NBA All-Star Game Betting Guide

You can bet on some other small NBA All-Star Weekend markets, but I’ll focus on the Big 3, with the All-Star Game wrapping things up this Sunday.

This year’s game will have a tough time matching past renditions, as massive names like Giannis, Luka, and others are unlikely to suit up due to injury. Giannis and Doncic are both listed as starters, so they’ll be replaced in the starting five if they’re both unable to give it a go.

The format has changed this year, too.

Instead of a traditional NBA All-Star Game, there will be a three-team round robin. Two of the teams will consist of US-born players, while a third team (Team World) will consist of players outside of the United States.

The two teams who are the most successful will face off in the official NBA All-Star Game.

Right now, we don’t know what that final matchup will be, but there are NBA All-Star Game odds up at DraftKings for the initial three matchups.

NBA All-Star Game Odds for 2025-26

• USA Stars (+124) vs. Team World (-148)
• USA Stripes (+100) vs. Team World (-120)
• USA Stripes (-120) vs. USA Stars (+100)

As you can tell based on the pricing, Team World is viewed as the tentative favorite. That is a testament to the European star power collected in The Association. Even with the likes of Giannis and possibly Luka Doncic not available, powerhouse athletes like Wemby, Nikola Jokic, and SGA give this team the clear edge.

USA Stripes may have been the favorite if they had a healthy Steph Curry on hand. However, the aging veteran is battling an injury and won’t play in any of the All-Star games this year.

That squad is still backed by big names like Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant. Based on those names alone, this team could offer substantial value in any game they’re involved in.

USA Stars features massive stars such as Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, and Tyrese Maxey, but is arguably the weakest overall team among the three.

NBA All-Star Game Predictions

• Team World (-148)
• Team World (-120)
• USA Stripes (-120)

We don’t know what the pricing will be in the “fourth quarter”, which will operate as the final 12-minute game. My prediction is that it will end up being a showdown between Team World and USA Stripes, and based on the rosters, Team World is a solid bet to come away with the win.

The issue, as noted before, could be how seriously players take this thing. If you don’t believe Jokic and others will try their hardest, Team World suddenly becomes a bit of a trap.

However, due to the format change, there’s a chance everyone in these games will actually try to win. If they do, the talent on Team World trumps the other two teams. I’d take USA Stripes over USA Stars, however.

Who Will Win the NBA All-Star Game MVP?

On top of the game(s), you can also bet on the NBA All-Star Game MVP. My guess is the winner would really be decided in the final quarter of this competition, and early odds indicate someone from Team World would make the most sense.

Take a look at the odds for this betting market:

NBA All-Star Game MVP Odds

Some of this will depend on who actually suits up for these games, but Wemby comes in as a +600 favorite, and he makes too much sense.

The knock on Wemby is that he gets hurt a lot and isn’t always available. But he’s going to play, and all eyes will be on him. With Team World being my pick to win this year, Wemby is the logical MVP pick and by all accounts, is also an insane value bet.

Pick: Victor Wembanyama (+600)

Betting on the 2025-26 NBA All-Star Weekend

The NBA All-Star Weekend is a chance for the players to break away from the grind and have some fun. You get a break from the torture that is trying to bet on a dying NBA product.

Don’t get me wrong, NBA betting is still something you can profit from. But with tanking, load management, random blowouts, and fatigue due to scheduling, it can be a betting space filled with landmines. You need to pick your spots and do so wisely.

That really doesn’t change when it comes to betting on the NBA All-Star Game, the 3-Point Contest, or the Dunk Contest. There are clear favorites, there are compelling values, and there are viable longshot bets. But the best bets still are largely staring us in the face.

I think I’d be comfortable making two bets per market. Knueppel and Portis stand out for the 3-Point Contest, while a nostalgic bet in favor of Lillard also is on the table.

For the Dunk Contest, the small field keeps my interest to just one bet, and everything points to Jase Richardson being the top pick.

The new game format messes things up a bit, so I’d just focus on the game that offers the most value and perceived safety. That’s Team World at -148) against the USA Stars. Once the odds drop for the final game, you can calibrate, but if you must bet again, I’d once again roll with Team World, regardless of what the pricing ends up being.

That does it for my 2025-26 NBA All-Star Weekend betting guide. Good luck!

2027 Super Bowl Futures: Updated Odds & Early Betting Favorites

The dust has finally settled on the 2026 Super Bowl, as the Seattle Seahawks lived up to their favorite status and downed the New England Patriots, 29-13.

Seattle controlled throughout, leaning on a strong rushing attack, splash plays from Sam Darnold, and a smothering defense to capture their second Lombardi Trophy. But it’s onward and upward for everyone else, as the Pats head home in sadness and sports bettors instantly ponder who might win it all next year.

Luckily, DraftKings and other NFL sportsbooks are quick to scratch that itch, as 2027 Super Bowl futures are up and ready for us to put some money on the line. Unsurprisingly, the Seahawks open with the best Super Bowl 61 odds, but the pricing is tight, and they are far from runaway favorites.

Hey, repeating as Super Bowl champion isn’t very easy, I’m told. But you can certainly bet on the Seahawks to win, or you can target any number of other teams. But which 2027 Super Bowl bet is the best to make right now?

I’ll walk you through the latest Super Bowl odds, list my best bets, and wrap things up with an early Super Bowl 2027 prediction.

Early 2027 Super Bowl Odds

The Seattle Seahawks open the NFL offseason with the best Super Bowl odds over at DraftKings. They aren’t alone, though, as the NFC West rival Los Angeles Rams share the exact same price.

While those two divisional foes are at the top, the gap isn’t very wide between them and the next team. Buffalo is right behind them with +1100 Super Bowl 61 betting odds, while a whopping nine other teams have odds better than +2000.

One thing is for sure: bettors are getting gobs of value if they place a winning bet on Super Bowl 61 right now. The big question, of course, is who should you bet on?

I’ll walk you through the best options, starting with the new champion Seahawks and the team that shares the same Super Bowl 2027 odds as them.

Why Are the Seahawks & Rams Co-Favorites?

Seattle makes sense as the new Super Bowl betting favorite, seeing as they literally just beat the Patriots to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. They did it rather easily, too, and with very little of their roster being impacted going into next year, a healthy Seahawks team could have a legit chance to repeat.

The problem, of course, is staying healthy isn’t easy. Historically, there’s a pretty strong correlation between remaining at full strength and becoming a champion. Another issue is nailing down the #1 seed in your conference two years in a row is easier said than done.

The Rams will be breathing down Seattle’s neck all year, and considering they are in their division, they could be a serious thorn in their side. In fact, the Rams gave the Seahawks absolute hell last year, as they barely lost to them in the NFC title game and the two sides played each other remarkably tight in three different meetings.

The real issue is the reality that repeating as a Super Bowl champ in back-to-back years is just really difficult. Even if you stay healthy and lock up that top seed, you still need to win those tense games, get back to the Big Game, and find a way to finish the job against a highly motivated opponent.

Just 12 teams in history have made consecutive appearances in the Super Bowl, while only eight have actually won it all two years in a row.

Seattle is facing an uphill battle versus history, so even though they are stacked and have incredible leadership, they feel like a shaky bet.

The Rams might have a more compelling case as Seattle’s arch nemesis. They came so close to getting to the promised land this year, after all. That said, the value isn’t right. It might make more sense to wait for football betting sites to adjust to the point where you can get them at +1000 or better.

Top Super Bowl 61 Contenders

It is incredibly early, so it’s important to note that there are a lot of true contenders, and you could make a case for even more. That said, I’ll break down the four Super Bowl 61 contenders I’d be most interested in betting on and why:

Best Super Bowl 2027 Sleeper Picks

• Houston Texans (+2000)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (+2200)
• Chicago Bears (+2500)

There is a ton of value when looking at who will win the Super Bowl next year. Literally anyone is in play, especially when you consider that nobody saw either the Seahawks or Patriots coming this year.

Teams like Jacksonville, Denver, and Chicago were also meteoric risers that few thought could make a serious run at a championship. Most of those teams see pretty big boosts in their Super Bowl 2027 odds, but it still keeps them in the sleeper conversation.

Houston could have made a title run if it hadn’t been for shaky play from quarterback C.J. Stroud. Backed by an elite defense, the Texans could be better decision-makers away from the franchise’s first-ever championship.

The Jaguars had an amazing year under new head coach Liam Cohen. Could he follow MacDonald’s path and win one in his second season with Jacksonville? You won’t meet a more likable coach, while the Jags really do appear to have the framework of a true Super Bowl sleeper.

Lastly, we can’t ignore the Bears. Chicago has an amazing Super Bowl price when you consider how much they’ve shown us already. Ben Johnson was arguably the NFL Coach of the Year (even though he didn’t win), guiding the Bears to the NFC North crown and an upset win over the hated Packers.

More than anything, though, we saw a star being born right before our eyes with the maturation of Caleb Williams. If Chicago’s defense can improve and Williams is more consistent, the Bears will definitely be in the mix again next year. Truth be told, getting them at +2500 could be the biggest steal of this entire betting market.

Best Super Bowl Longshot Bet for 2027

The best Super Bowl 61 longshot bet right now has to be the New York Giants. Only time will tell if a team this young and raw can make a run, but two things stand out from this year’s Super Bowl.

1. Coaching changes are huge
2. Young/cheap QBs allow for elite roster building

Both the Seahawks and Patriots leveled up when they moved on from their previous head coaches. Mike Vrabel led New England to the Super Bowl in his first season on the job, while Seattle won their second Lombardi Trophy in Mike MacDonald’s second year.

That formula isn’t a lock to work again next season, but the Giants absolutely have a talented roster, and bringing in a veteran CEO-type of head coach like John Harbaugh could be just what the doctor ordered.

The other thing is the quarterback contract. Jaxon Dart has to prove he’s even the guy under center for the G-Men, but he flashed enough to suggest he can be. Beyond him, Big Blue is getting healthier with studs like Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers making their way back to the field.

New York isn’t wasting big money on any of these players, as they’re all still young and on rookie deals. That could allow them to be aggressive in free agency, expediting their rise up the ranks. Plus, they’re in the NFC East, which has historically been one of the easier divisions to dominate.

If New York makes the big leap they’re set up to, they could be an amazing steal at their current +7000 Super Bowl odds.

Factors That Could Shift Super Bowl 61 Odds

The paint isn’t dry yet on these early Super Bowl odds. A lot can change between now and even OTAs, too, so it’s important to track key developments if you’re waiting to place your bets.

Here are a few things that could alter the 2027 Super Bowl odds, for better or worse:

1. NFL Draft results
2. Free Agency moves
3. Offseason injuries
4. Coaching changes

As noted, several teams changed the direction of their franchise – or at least intended to – by switching head coaches.

It remains to be seen how that plays out, but teams like the Giants, Ravens, and Bills are at the forefront of potentially massive moves that could derail or elevate their title hopes.

Coming up is the 2026 NFL Draft. Most of the chatter surrounds who will go #1 overall, but every team has draft picks to work with and will have an opportunity to improve their roster.

Aside from the draft, free agency threatens to change teams for the worse, while some franchises can strike gold and land marquee talent they can use to get them over the hump.

Injuries are always going to factor into Super Bowl odds, too. Some contenders like the Packers and 49ers are hoping to get back to full strength, while favorites like the Seahawks and Bills will need to avoid devastating health concerns.

The offseason is tricky for Super Bowl odds, as the market can fluctuate greatly depending on who teams draft or sign, and how players recover from injuries. The better you can react to the fluctuation of the pricing, the more value you can obtain when betting on the Super Bowl.

Expert Super Bowl 2027 Betting Tips

Before you bet on who will win the Super Bowl next year, take a second to digest all the information you have at your disposal. Also, consider my top Super Bowl betting tips:

• Shop odds early and often – You have a sportsbook you love, but do they have the best odds for the team you want to bet on? Make sure you shop around, while waiting a bit to compare pricing can also be a good idea.
• Don’t bet right away – Everyone wants skin in the game, but it’s very early in the process. To make the best bet possible, make sure you turn over every stone to ensure maximum value.
• Bet early if it’s a smash – Waiting to bet and shopping for ideal Super Bowl odds is preferred, but sometimes the bet is too good to ignore. Pricing can shift in a hurry, so if a bet is there for the taking and it’s too good to ignore, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger.
• Prioritize value over favorites – The Super Bowl winner is rarely the top favorite and sometimes it’s not even one of the top contenders. Target the 2nd tier of contenders or consider which sleepers or longshot bets have a path to paying off.
• Diversify your bets – Super Bowl odds are pretty forgiving, so instead of going all in on one team, take a crack at multiple contenders and value bets. You don’t want to bet so much that you can’t profit, but a handful of bets instead of just one is the better approach.

Super Bowl 2027 Prediction

Our Pick: Chicago Bears (+2500)

It is very early, but if you need a Super Bowl 61 prediction, my money is on the Chicago Bears at +2500.

There is a lot of historical data working against the current top contenders. Betting on a repeat champion doesn’t seem wise, while no quarterback has literally never even made it back to the Super Bowl after appearing in the game in his second season.

Teams often crumble after reaching the conference title game the previous year, too. Based on this information, can we cross off the likes of the Seahawks, Rams, Patriots, and Broncos? I don’t think it means they can’t defy history, but it’s enough to get me to look at other options I am already interested in.

Chicago is at the top of the list. Striking while the iron is hot is one thing, but this one qualifies as one where we can go hard while the iron is just starting to warm up. Getting the Bears at +2500 feels insane given everything they’ve shown us so far.

Ben Johnson is an offensive guru, and Chicago just won their division and was one bad play in overtime from reaching the NFC title game. With a more concerted effort to beef up their defense, the Bears could have everything you look for in a Super Bowl contender.

2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals Prediction

The 2026 Winter Olympics are well underway, and currently, it’s Norway’s race to lose. FanDuel has Norway as the far and away favorite to claim the most gold medals before the dust settles in Italy, and time is running out for another country to give them a good sweat.

This has already been an insane Winter Olympics run, whether it be the gritty effort by seasoned veteran Lindsey Vonn or, or Austrian snowboarder Benjamin Karl claiming gold at age 40.

Can anyone actually catch Norway? Not if you ask the experts who previewed these Winter Games before they began. Norway was a top pick by many to win gold the most, and they entered the 2026 Winter Olympics with -195 odds to do just that.

Now priced as obscene favorites, bettors need to consider who can stage the upset, or if betting on who will win the most gold medals at the Winter Olympics is even worth their time. To get a good idea of where this market is at, let’s go over the latest odds and work our way to a prediction.

Latest Odds to Win the Most Gold Medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics

Norway pulls in with staggering -900 odds to win the most gold medals in this installment of the Winter Games. They’re very much in the lead with six gold medals already claimed (at the time of this writing), while the next closest country only has three.

That’d be Switzerland, but considering their +10000 odds, they aren’t a great bet to hold onto second place for much longer.

The USA is really the only country with a legit shot to unseat Norway, but their +500 odds are both comforting and discouraging. Those odds mean they’re the team with the best chance, but they’re also a clear indication that this is quite an uphill battle ahead of them.

Pulling in third is Germany with +3300, while nobody else is even at +5000. Italy would make for a heck of a story if they could storm back as the host nation, but with their +6000 odds, they are looking like a long shot at best.

You can bet on which country will win the most gold medals now, but this demands to be analyzed further. Let’s first inspect why Norway is favored, and gauge which contenders have a real shot at giving them a run for their money.

Why is Norway Favored to Win the Most Gold Medals?

It’s pretty simple. Norway is stacked this year, and they were a -195 favorite to win the most gold hardware even before the 2026 Winter Games got going. Now that they’ve raced out to a three-medal lead over the next closest country, it’s going to be difficult to match them – let alone beat them.

They’re even making history in this year’s games:

Norway dominated the last Winter Games, too. They had more total medals (37) than anyone at the 2022 Games, and they also secured the most gold medals (16). Four years prior they were among the best, as they once again won the most total medals and tied for first in gold medal wins.

A mainstay at the Winter Olympics, Norway was always expected to be a problem for everyone else. They’ve lived up to expectations and would now need an epic collapse to fail to hold onto the top spot.

Cruising out to a big early lead is important, but Norway is going to be in contention for a lot more medals.

Top Contenders to Take Down Norway

Norway has been pretty tough to beat at the Winter Olympics for some time now. They were fully expected to be the trend setter this year, and it’d be nothing short of shocking if they actually relinquished their gold medal lead at this point.

That said, the Olympics can be pretty crazy, and there are some countries who could heat up in a hurry. The odds aren’t amazing, but if you’re betting against Norway, start with these three contenders:

Top Longshot Bet to Win the Most Gold Medals

Truth be told, anything after the United States feels like a pretty big gamble. The US isn’t a great bet even at +500, but if you bet on another country, you’re already not really carrying about any risk.

Naturally, you should tread lightly with any bets outside of Norway or Team USA. That said, if you’re going to go big, why not aim super high with someone like France (+10000)?

It’s a true longshot bet, but France is actually going to be a viable option in a lot of competitions. Clement Noel (+500) has the third best price going into the Slalom Men event, Erik Perrot (+500) has the second best odds for the men’s 10km Biathlon Sprint, Lou Jeanmonnot (+350) is actually favored to win the women’s 12.5km Mass Start, and Team France is a -145 favorite to take gold at the 4x6km women’s Relay.

Even sweeping those events won’t be enough, of course. However, if France can win the events they are favored in and surprise in a few others, they could be a +10000 bet worth taking a chance on.

Who Will Win the Most Gold Medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

There, you have a breakdown of why Norway is favored, who their top challengers are, and a sleeper pick that would net a sick return if they delivered.

However, this Winter Games betting market boils down to two things: Norway isn’t a country you should be betting on anymore, and you’d be best served sticking to individual event betting.

While undeniably true, I think the math points to the United States being the only viable bet here. They are favored in a slew of remaining scheduled events, and they have enough talent and sheer volume to make a push in a handful of others.

If you must bet on which country will win the most gold medals, I’d target Team USA. I think Norway still gets it done, but the United States absolutely has a path to the top spot, and you can’t beat that +500 price.

2025-26 NBA MVP Race: Latest Odds & Our Prediction for Who Wins

The race for the 2025-26 NBA MVP is officially on. It’s literally been going on for months, but we have updated odds at DraftKings, with Oklahoma City Thunder star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge (-230).

But is he the rightful favorite? And should bettors be considering someone else? There are some mild cases for other players involved, while their NBA MVP odds alone demand we at least give them a cursory glance.

SGA is putting up big numbers, and he’s on the best team in the NBA. That combination is hard to fight against, but before betting on NBA player futures like this, turning over every stone is highly suggested.

Wondering who will win the NBA MVP award this year? Or simply looking for a reason not to bet on SGA? I’ll break down the latest NBA MVP betting odds, detail why SGA is favored, highlight the best alternative bets, and close things out with a final NBA MVP prediction.

Latest NBA MVP Odds for 2025-26

SGA comes in with the best odds to win the NBA MVP award this year. That makes sense, as he won the award last year and led his Oklahoma City Thunder to the franchise’s first ever championship.

Gilgeous-Alexander has admittedly done nothing to lose the award, either. He’s putting up big numbers, and the Thunder are once again in contention for the NBA’s best record.

That said, his price is not very inviting, and there are some very strong cases for some of the other options. Nikola Jokic is a walking triple-double and offers solid value, Luka Doncic would be a first-time winner and is churning out insane production, and there are a few other players listed at intriguing prices with viable arguments backing them.

Not sure who the NBA MVP winner is? Let’s go over the top options and find out the best way to bet on this award.

Why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA MVP Favorite

NBA MVP awards can often come in bunches. Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic are three players who have all won back-to-back MVPs in just the last decade.

SGA continues to churn out elite production, too. He’s averaging 31.8 points per game while finding the time to dish out 6.4 assists per game. On top of that, he’s making an impact as a defender (1.3 steals per game), and shooting a career-high 55% from the field.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s team success is also tough to ignore. He’s on par statistically with where he was last year, and his Thunder haven’t skipped a beat. OKC currently owns the top seed in The Association and could be well on their way to a title defense.

The league MVP isn’t always from the NBA’s best team, but numbers like this and high-level team success certainly make for a strong case for SGA to repeat.

Why SGA Might Not Win

There are a few reasons why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might not win the NBA MVP award. The first is general fatigue. Voters have only awarded him the trophy once, but there is a pretty loud narrative that he is a “free throw merchant” and wouldn’t be nearly as impactful without getting to the line 9.2 times per game like he does.

Another issue is the competition. SGA’s team success is unmatched, and his numbers across the board are as good as anyone’s. But he’s not the top guy in a lot of key categories. If the MVP voters want to value top-shelf production, SGA may not actually be the first choice in this year’s NBA MVP race.

Top 2025-26 NBA MVP Contenders

• Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
• Luka Doncic, F, Los Angeles Lakers
• Cade Cunningham, PG, Detroit Pistons

I can’t leave out Jokic, simply because he is a three-time NBA MVP winner and comes in with the second-best odds this year. He appears to be a distant second in this NBA MVP race, however, and he’s missed a good chunk of the season with an injury.

Statistically, Jokic is still a legit threat and easily a top-5 player in the league. His Denver Nuggets continue to win games at a solid rate, too. He checks every box, other than the fact that availability has been an issue, and NBA MVP voters might be sick of choosing him.

Availability is the biggest problem, though, as Jokic would no longer be eligible if he missed even one more game this year.

That seems problematic. If he can stay on the court the rest of the way he’s a threat, but that might be asking a lot.

Luka Doncic is a very interesting option. His Los Angeles Lakers are right up there with the best teams in the Western Conference and just recently were in play for the #2 seed. If the Lakers can stay among the top four seeds, he has to garner serious consideration.

Doncic carries major weight when it comes to production, star power, and narrative. His team’s success is good enough, and he’s 1st in several key categories – namely points per game – and top-5 in a bunch of others.

The narrative backing him is that he’s a superstar that puts up insane numbers, yet hasn’t won this award in his career. He may finally be due, provided the voting panel can overlook his subpar defense.

Cade Cunningham is more of a narrative and team success play. He’s led his Detroit Pistons to the best record in the Eastern Conference, and he’s averaging a double-double on the year. In the name of Steve Nash, he should be getting more of a look than he ultimately will.

My Favorite NBA MVP Sleeper Pick

What you define as being a true NBA MVP sleeper is up to you, but since the shortlist is, well, kind of short, I think anyone beyond Cade Cunningham at +2000 qualifies as a sleeper.

All things considered, the value bet with the most compelling case to win the NBA MVP award has to be Jaylen Brown. He’s not considered a true contender, but he offers a fun price tag at +3500, and he actually has a strong case.

Context is key here, as the Boston Celtics were not supposed to be this good after seeing Jayson Tatum tear his Achilles during the playoffs last season.

Jaylen Brown, to this point, hadn’t been asked to be his team’s top scoring option, either. The 29-year-old responded with what has become his best season to date, as he’s putting up an insane 29.5 points per game while keeping his Celtics near the top of the Eastern Conference.

Boston may not get the #1 seed when it’s all said and done, but the fact that they’re even remotely in the mix is absurd. Brown’s numbers are a big reason why, too, as he’s racking up seven rebounds and 4.8 dimes per game, while shooting a healthy 48.6% from the floor and also contributing on the defensive side.

It’s not the sexiest NBA MVP pick, but it’s a high-value option that just might have legs to it.

Best NBA MVP Bets Right Now

• Favorite: SGA (-230)
• Challenger: Luka Doncic (+2000)
• Sleeper: Jaylen Brown (+3500)

If you want the best NBA MVP picks to target right now, I think it comes down to three different types of bets. SGA is the clear favorite and likely winner, Doncic is probably the most compelling “realistic” contender, and Jaylen Brown is the most enticing high upside dice roll.

That doesn’t mean we should ignore Nikola Jokic at +350 or that we can’t bet on Cunningham at +2000, but these are best overall bets for this market.

Key Factors That Decide Who Will Win the NBA MVP

There are a few things you need to keep in mind when betting on the next NBA MVP. Throughout history, most of the winners have had much of the same criteria, making the following pretty important:

• Team Success
• Elite Production
• Positive Advanced Metrics
• Individual Narrative
• Availability

It’s pretty simple. To win the NBA MVP, your team can’t be bad. You don’t need to have the #1 seed or the best record in your conference necessary, but it does help. And no matter how good your numbers are, you’re not claiming the hardware if your team isn’t among the league’s best.

On top of strong team success, you need big-time numbers. MVP winners typically lead the league in scoring or are at least close to it. The ones that don’t need to dominate in another fashion like Steve Nash, who averaged a double-double in his two MVP wins.

Sometimes the MVP race goes deeper with advanced metrics playing a role. This isn’t always a deciding factor, of course, and is often used more to differentiate in the event of a tight MVP race.

Just as meaningful as those criteria, however, is a good storyline. Narrative is important to a strong NBA MVP case, although we’ve seen people win it without it.

Lastly, you need to play most of the year. It’s hard to be the MVP of your own team – let alone the face of the NBA – if you’re not actually on the court. As long as you check all of these boxes, you’re at least in the conversation.

Recent NBA MVP Winners

2025-26 NBA MVP Prediction – Who Will Win?

All roads undeniably lead back to SGA. The NBA media fawns over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and it doesn’t appear that anyone voting on the NBA MVP winner cares about his negatives. And the betting apps seem to feel the same way.

To be fair, nobody can rival his efficiency, team success, or across-the-board elite play. The fact that he’s not a minus on defense like some other candidates also aids his case.

If SGA doesn’t win, my next best bet is Luka. He is crushing statistically, and if the Lakers can push their way to the 2nd or 3rd seed, I think he has a real chance to unseat SGA. That said, NBA MVP winners can repeat when the case is as strong as it is with SGA. Perhaps Luka will be a more compelling bet next year.

Super Bowl 60 Prop Bets: 10 Best Props to Bet for the 2026 Big Game

Super Bowl 60 is almost here, and the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots promise to deliver an unforgettable game. This game features two nasty defenses, two compelling quarterbacks, and a pair of dynamic offenses with a penchant for the big play.

It will be very interesting to see which narrative seizes the day, and whether or not these offenses can win out in the face of brutal matchups. Even more interesting, of course, is how we can profit from the Big Game.

You can bet on the game itself by checking out my Super Bowl 2026 prediction, or you can also target some Super Bowl 60 prop bets. I’ve detailed 10 that look amazing heading into Super Bowl Sunday, and I’ll also equip you with some tips to keep in mind when betting.

Without further haste, here are the 10 best Super Bowl 2026 prop bets to target this weekend:

How We Choose the Best Super Bowl Props

Before I hand you my favorite Super Bowl LX props, here’s a quick breakdown as to why you should care about these picks.

There are a lot of Super Bowl prop bet lists out there, so what makes ours any different? For starters, we’re putting a lot of factors together to give you the best props to target.

The following is considered for any Super Bowl prop that graces this list:

• Line value + mispricing
• Market popularity vs. sharp money
• Game script correlation
• Matchup-specific angles

None of this guarantees these Super Bowl 60 props will deliver, but this is a layered approach to ensure these bets all give you maximum value.

Beyond this, we like to be right, and we like to see people win. You can target our top 10 Super Bowl 2026 prop bets knowing we want them to hit almost as much as you do. With that, let’s get to the 10 best Super Bowl LX prop bets I love ahead of the Big Game.

10 Best Super Bowl 60 Prop Bets

These are my 10 favorite Super Bowl props for 2026. You won’t find that many of them have absurd pricing, because I am going for actual value, and not filler.

I’ll list each Super Bowl prop and explain what makes them stand out for me:

Super Bowl 60 Prop Betting Strategy Tips

It’s important not to be reckless with your Super Bowl prop betting. There’s a never-ending sea of props to target, so you need to be careful where you bet and how you bet.

Whether you use my top 10 Super Bowl props or not, I do urge you to consider adhering to the following Super Bowl prop betting tips:

• Avoid sexy Super Bowl props – The weirder the Super Bowl prop, the worse it probably is for your wallet. Crazy Super Bowl prop bets are fun, but you should target them very lightly if you want to actually win money.
• Restrict Super Bowl prop betting volume – Cut down your Super Bowl props to a shortlist of wagers you like. Then maybe even cut that in half. Target a small number of Super Bowl 60 props with a finite amount of money to restrict budget spend and boost the probability of winning.
• Don’t bet on all of my top 10 Super Bowl props – I love all of my top Super Bowl 60 props, but going 10/10 is very difficult. In fact, avoid Super Bowl parlays at a high level. You can have fun with huge parlays, or you can target isolated bets and improve your chances of actually profiting.
• Shop Super Bowl lines aggressively (and carefully) – My top 10 Super Bowl prop bets all came from DraftKings, but definitely shop around and find the best price possible among the NFL betting sites you call home.

There are surely more Super Bowl prop betting tips out there, but the ones above should put you in a great spot – along with my top picks – to profit this Super Bowl Sunday.

What is the Best Super Bowl 60 Prop Betting Sportsbook?

I grabbed all of these Super Bowl 60 prop bets from DraftKings. It’s undeniably one of the best Super Bowl betting sites you’ll find online, but it’s also not the only one.

I’m not here to push you to any one site in particular. DraftKings was a great resource when considering Super Bowl prop bet variety and selection, as well as odds. However, instead of just using only them, I’d encourage you to use several football sportsbooks, no matter what kind of Super Bowl betting you plan on doing.

Take a look at our list of the best football betting sites. We offer full breakdowns and rankings for the best options out there, making it easy to pick the best site that’s right for you.

They’re all great, though, so using several to locate the best possible Super Bowl 60 props is my main preference.

The Best Super Bowl 60 Prop Bet You Can’t Ignore

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Longest Catch Over 25+ Yards (-184)

I’ve detailed 10 Super Bowl prop bets that I am very high on, but there is one that really takes the cake. That’s none other than JSN to have a 25+ yard catch.

Why do I like this prop bet so much? Because JSN has been a consistently elite producer down the field, and Seattle’s passing game relies on him making splash plays. Even better? JSN has a path to success whether the Seahawks are winning or losing this game.

• On one hand, Seattle will look to keep New England’s secondary honest by attacking down the field.
• On the other hand, even if the Seahawks are trailing in Super Bowl 60, they’d need to be throwing and attacking aggressively.

You can target that Super Bowl prop bet or roll with any of the others I’ve listed above. But as noted in my tips sections, I don’t suggest hammering all of them together. Nobody giving out Super Bowl 60 picks is perfect, so the odds of them all hitting is pretty low.

That goes into my general tips, too; make sure you’re being selective, shopping for odds, and only targeting the best bets that you actually feel strongly about. Most of all, keep things relatively light if you can, and don’t risk more money than you can afford to lose.

Giannis Antetokounmpo NBA Trade Rumors: Odds, Teams & Next NBA Destination

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s time with the Milwaukee Bucks is over. Not officially, mind you, while even a recently released interview by the New York Times sparked newfound hope that he may not leave Mil-town.

However, closer inspection of what The Greek Freak actually says in that interview, as well as what he’s been saying for months now, suggests a trade is just around the corner.

It’s still anyone’s guess as to who Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team will actually be, or even when he will get traded. The speculation has run wild when it comes to these NBA trade rumors, and unless Thursday’s NBA trade deadline comes and goes without a deal being dropped, the buzz won’t stop.

DraftKings has a futures bet up right now for where his next regular-season minute will be played following the 2025-26 trade deadline. That begs two questions to be answered: will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded, and where will he go if he’s dealt?

I’ll break down the latest Giannis Antetokounmpo trade odds and analyze how likely he is to be moved, and which team makes the most sense in a prospective deal.

Latest Odds for Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Next Team

These are the teams with the best odds of trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo, while the Bucks are still favored to be the one to hold his rights once the NBA trade deadline has passed.

It’s an interesting betting market, simply because Giannis not being moved by the deadline doesn’t necessarily mean he doesn’t get traded this offseason. However, DraftKings explicitly lists it as a wager for just the 2025-26 NBA season.

That means whoever you pick for Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next NBA team, he has to play for them this year. This could be problematic, seeing as the Bucks have an incentive to find the best deal possible, and numerous teams that have serious interest have told them that they can sweeten the deal during the offseason.

While that may be true, Milwaukee’s leverage for the best possible deal could dry up before then. Giannis has also been public about not wanting to waste time and having a desire to contend right now. At age 31, who could blame him?

So, unless he signed off on the team tanking behind closed doors, he’d almost definitely want to return from his current calf injury and play after the NBA All-Star Break.

That has the makings of two ships passing in the night and going in very different directions. Still, there’s really good value with a lot of these Giannis trade odds. Either you believe he’s definitely staying put and you can hammer the Bucks at -160, or you can take a shot at plus money with anyone else that makes sense.

But which teams have a legit chance of trading for Giannis this season? I’ll break down the top contenders, my favorite sleeper pick, and end with my final Giannis Antetokounmpo trade prediction.

Why the Bucks Are Favored to Keep Giannis

Sometimes the markets price themselves. There is so much uncertainty surrounding this situation, as every single person attached to it is difficult to trust.

Milwaukee head coach Doc Rivers has said Giannis isn’t going anywhere, and Giannis himself dropped some compelling quotes in his recent interview that could be twisted as him saying he’s not leaving.

But a closer look might suggest that Rivers is simply delivering coachspeak and that Giannis is reflecting on the past more than he’s looking to the future when discussing the Bucks.

Favorites don’t always win, either, while a -160 price is nice if it pans out, but it’s far from a lock.

The reality is Milwaukee is well below .500, and they’re not even a playoff team as I write this, much less a title contender. The Bucks have tried ad nauseam to satisfy Gianni,s and still this is where they wound up – in salary cap hell with no clear path to title contention in sight.

Milwaukee could convince Giannis to stay by saying they’ll tank this year, offload bad contracts, and rebuild this summer. But there’s no guarantee that work,s and waiting only risks losing further leverage in Giannis trade talks.

The Bucks are an appealing bet at -160, and there is a chance he does get moved in the offseason, but this isn’t where I’d be investing my money with this betting market.

Top Contenders to Trade for Giannis

There are only four teams with odds better than +1000 to land Giannis Antetokounmpo, so it only makes sense that we should spend a little time on them.

Let’s do some quick vetting as to why these could be Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team:

Other Contenders to Land Giannis Antetokounmpo

• New York Knicks (+1600)
• Portland Trail Blazers (+2200)
• Philadelphia 76ers (+3000)

These three teams are also in the mix and offer supreme betting value as longshots that may have a better chance than most people think.

New York has been salivating over the idea of trading for Giannis since last year. In fact, media pundits have been talking about a Giannis exit and aligning the stars to send him to MSG for years now.

How real it is remains to be seen, but the Knicks have a loaded roster that would make a trade very easy to figure out. The big issue would be draft pick compensation and which pieces the Bucks would want to pry away from New York.

Portland is also extremely interesting, as there is a lot of chatter about Giannis liking the idea of teaming back up with old teammates Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday. Both are members of the Trail Blazers, while the team has a really nice young core with emerging stars such as Deni Avdija, Donovan Clinga, Shaedon Sharpe, and Scoot Henderson.

If any team is equipped to unload impressive talent in an effort to expedite their rise to contending status, it’s Portland.

Lastly, let’s not ignore the 76ers. Philly is another team with a lot of talent and depth, but they could still be one key piece from being the true favorite in the Eastern Conference.

Just imagine Giannis standing next to Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey gunning defenses on every possession. That is one sick trio that could be impossible to stop.

All it’d take to get a deal done? Dangling star rookie VJ Edgecombe, some more prospects, and some picks. Philly is absolutely a dark horse contender, as they fit the Giannis championship window, they have the tools to make a deal happen, and they have extremely favorable odds for bettors willing to take a risk.

The Top Sleeper Team to Trade for Giannis

Not getting enough value with all of these other possible Giannis Antetokounmpo landing spots? Then let’s go even bigger with the Oklahoma City Thunder. The defending champs have struggled with health and consistency a bit more than anyone thought they would, but as the top team in the NBA, they are clearly in play to repeat as league champs.

There are negative optics for Giannis here. He’d be joining a team literally coming off of a championship, so it’d be a dent in his legacy. However, OKC has draft picks, and they have gobs of interesting talent they can throw at the wall.

The Thunder could dangle Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren in Giannis trade talks, moving from the most likely champion to a team virtually nobody has a chance against.

Obviously, the problem is that OKC may not see the point of messing with their chemistry. The roster they have is the one they built and won with, after all. Nothing we’ve seen this year really suggests they aren’t still the team to beat, either.

The Longshot Team to Land Giannis

Even if you’re betting on Giannis to stay with the Bucks at -160, you’re getting value. If you bet on any other team to trade for him and end up being right, you’ll more than double your money.

There is also a chance this is all for nothing, so taking a blind shot on a wild option simply might make life a bit more fun. If you go that route, consider doing it with the Denver Nuggets.

Denver is already in position to contend this year. The duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray has them closing in on second place in the Western Conference, but they still are a distant second to the Thunder, along with everyone else.

The Nuggets have some solid pieces they could send Milwaukee’s way, especially with youngster Peyton Watson emerging recently. On top of some nice players they could include in any prospective Giannis trade, the Nuggets have a few picks to include, but may need a third team to assist in a deal.

Of course, the point here is two-fold: the Nuggets are right there in terms of contending, and their +10000 odds are pretty alluring. Now it just comes down to them shocking the world.

Where Will Giannis Antetokounmpo Play Next?

Now comes the time for a final Giannis Antetokounmpo prediction. Milwaukee’s price keeps moving. Seriously, when I started writing this, they were a -135 favorite, and now they’re up to -160. That means people are betting on them enough to boost their line, and the betting public is forming a consensus that he isn’t getting traded before the deadline.

The New York Times interview and countless Giannis trade rumors being leaked have swayed bets, but I am sticking to my guns and saying I think he gets dealt. The only question is where?

Ultimately, the Bucks need to leverage what they have in their possession: a top-5 superstar with two years on his deal. If they wait to move him until after the trade deadline, his value drops, however, as it goes from two playoff runs worth of Giannis to him being a one-year rental.

If we’re looking at the big picture from all angles, I think all roads lead to the Miami Heat. They give Giannis a clear path to winning, a strong head coach, a front office committed to seeking championships, and he gets to stay in the East.

For Giannis, the Heat are a big win, and a long-term deal is also going to be on the table.

It’s a huge play for Miami, who are just 27-25, but are a bit better than their record shows. They are also the perfect team for a Giannis-led offense, as he takes care of business inside and when the defense collapses, their murderer’s row of outside shooters make opposing teams pay.

On the other side, the Bucks should come away plenty pleased, too. Tyler Herro and Kel’el Ware headline a solid trade in terms of talent going north, but the Heat also own their own first round draft pick this year, as well as 2029, 2030, 2031, and 2031.

The only question is the asking price. Are the Bucks demanding all of Miami’s young talent and all of their picks? Probably. Depending on what the true hangup is and how badly Miami wants Giannis, we could have a problem.

But winning doesn’t have a price. I think Pat Riley caves in the end, gives the Bucks a king’s ransom, and all sides walk away happy. It’ll be the end of an era, and it’ll be sad to see Giannis in another jersey, but anyone willing to slap a bet on the Heat at +900 probably won’t care.

Super Bowl MVP Odds with Top Picks & Prediction

Super Bowl 60 is less than two weeks away. Betting on the Big Game is a tradition unlike any other, and predicting who will win the Super Bowl MVP award goes right into that.

Except, this is usually one of the safest bets you can place on the Super Bowl. Quarterbacks almost always win Super Bowl MVP, so the only thing you really need to do is decide which team will win.

The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks will square off in the 2026 Super Bowl, meaning all eyes will be on quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Drake Maye. While history suggests one of them will win the Super Bowl MVP, bettors need to either decide which one, or bet on something crazy happening.

To dive into it, let’s look at the latest Super Bowl MVP odds. Who is the Super Bowl MVP favorite, the top contenders, and some sleeper bets? I’ll go over it all, point you to the best bets for the market, and cap things off with a final Super Bowl MVP prediction.

Current Super Bowl MVP Odds for 2026

These are the top 10 players in terms of Super Bowl 60 MVP odds. They are the best bets to win the award, but that definitely doesn’t mean bettors should stop here.

Still, quarterbacks almost always win the Super Bowl MVP, so starting with Sam Darnold vs. Drake Maye is wise. Looking back, a quarterback has claimed the hardware from the winning side in each of the last three seasons and eight times since 2015.

It's been NINE consecutive years that we've seen a QB or WR win Super Bowl MVP – Is another position destined to win it in Super Bowl LX? 👀 pic.twitter.com/LAVBTBf3TD

— theScore Bet (@theScoreBet) January 27, 2026

It is not necessarily as much of a “quarterback award” as the regular-season NFL MVP award tends to be, but if the quarterback has a good game and his team wins, he will most likely be the winner.

However, where value can arise is when there is a potential defensive battle and/or if there are skill position players with huge performances. This game offers paths to both of those, meaning while Darnold and Maye stand out as the top picks, they’re not the only players worth betting on.

I’ll go over the most viable Super Bowl MVP betting candidates, but first, let’s break down why Sam Darnold is the favorite for this year.

Why is Sam Darnold the Super Bowl MVP Favorite?

The easiest answer for this question is that Darnold is the quarterback for the team currently favored to win Super Bowl XL.

Darnold has a really strong narrative backing him, even besides that, though, as he’s had an amazing season. Even more important, of course, is his label as a former draft bust.

The New York Jets made Darnold the top pick in the NFL Draft back in 2018, and things did not work out with the franchise. Darnold then bounced around the league and seemed to be on his way out before resurrecting his career last year with the Minnesota Vikings.

Minnesota tossed him aside, and he was forced to once again start over with Seattle. Luckily for him, he churned out his second straight stellar campaign and is now in a position to complete a full 180 on his NFL career.

Needless to say, it will be extremely hard for the Super Bowl MVP voters to bypass him if his team wins and he has even a small hand in it.

Should Darnold play well and Seattle emerge victorious, it would be a shock if he didn’t get the award. In fact, it would probably require an outlier performance by someone else on his team, and/or a very weak statistical output from him.

That is not impossible, however, which is why anyone looking to bet on the Super Bowl MVP winner needs to turn over every stone.

Is Darnold the rightful favorite? Yes. He’s also a stellar value, all things considered, but let’s consider all options before dropping a Super Bowl MVP prediction.

Top Super Bowl MVP Contenders

• Drake Maye, QB, Patriots (+235)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks (+550)
• Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks (+650)

Sam Darnold is the favorite to win the 2026 Super Bowl MVP award, but not by much. Right behind him is Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who is following in Tom Brady’s footsteps.

There’s also JSN and Kenneth Walker III, two players on the favored Seahawks who have displayed explosive upside. If they outshine Darnold in a win, they could easily get the nod.

These are your main Super Bowl XL MVP contenders, and they’re the only players coming in below +1000. Here’s a breakdown of each and why they can win the MVP award:

Why Drake Maye Can Win Super Bowl MVP

Maye can make even more interesting history, as a win would make him the youngest Super Bowl-winning quarterback in NFL history. Adding the MVP trophy would be a nice bonus, and at +235, he looks like a legitimate threat to do so.

What needs to happen? First, the Pats need to beat the Seahawks. Second, Maye probably needs to be the reason why New England wins. Making that happen could actually be more difficult than expected, too. Not only are the Patriots running into an elite Seattle defense, but Maye will need to have one of the best games of his life despite not being 100%.

Is Drake Maye surprised by all of the conversation about his shoulder?

"I mean, it's the right shoulder of a starting quarterback of an NFL team."

He gets it pic.twitter.com/lRymXwH99l

— Nicole Menner (@NicoleMenner) January 29, 2026

Maye is dealing with a shoulder injury that until now hasn’t generated a lot of buzz. That’s another thing that aids his case. If Maye balls out, he looks even better. If he simply guts out a tough performance and his team wins a low-scoring defensive battle and nobody else shines, he’d be the MVP almost by default.

New England hasn’t looked good on offense in their playoff run. You could argue that they’ve won these games despite Maye and the offense’s performance. But if their defense stifles Seattle and Maye doesn’t shoot himself in the foot, he’d still be the likely MVP winner.

Why JSN Can Win Super Bowl MVP

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has enjoyed an insane third NFL season. The second you thought he flashed his ceiling in 2024, he blew you away with a disgusting 119-1,793-10 stat line.

The only thing JSN can do for an encore is go crush in the biggest game of his life. He just did that against the Rams in the NFC title game, where he hauled in 10 passes for 153 yards and a score.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 10 of 12 targets for a team-high 153 receiving yards and a TD against the Rams.

JSN caught at least one pass against six different Rams defenders in coverage, and caught all 6 targets for 105 yards when aligned out wide.#LARvsSEA | @Seahawks pic.twitter.com/28SFLsbelN

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 26, 2026

Smith-Njigba is borderline uncoverable. He has a stiff test ahead of him against Christian Gonzalez, but he has the speed and jaw-dropping route-running to gain separation even in the toughest of spots.

Wide receivers can win the Super Bowl MVP award, too. We just saw Cooper Kupp do it a few years ago with the Rams, while Julian Edelman and Deion Branch won it for the Patriots in previous seasons.

Behind quarterbacks, the wide receiver position has racked up the most MVP wins in the Super Bowl. JSN could be next.

Why Kenneth Walker III Can Win Super Bowl MVP

The other compelling Super Bowl MVP contender is Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III. It’s not necessarily about building a strong case in his favor, but more about creating a narrative in the event the award doesn’t go to a quarterback.

If the Super Bowl MVP winner isn’t one of the quarterbacks and JSN doesn’t nab it, then we could be looking at a situation where the defenses dominate or a running back goes off.

Walker has flashed special ability, as he teed off on the San Francisco 49ers (3 TDs) a few weeks ago.

KEN WALKER III LEGACY GAME:

– 22 Touches
– 145 Yards
– 3 TD’s

He looked electric today, averaging 6.1 Yards Per Carry..

Seattle’s headed to the NFC Championship after their 41-6 Win over San Francisco

Pure dominance from start to finish pic.twitter.com/riuAjbDWJf

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbott) January 18, 2026

New England’s run defense is solid, but they can still give up some production, and if Walker hits home run plays like he’s capable of, their rankings against the run could ultimately be meaningless.

Someone is going to dominate this game. If someone from the passing game doesn’t, then banking on Walker popping off for some big gains and being the catalyst for a Seahawks win is an interesting way to bet on this market.

5 Sneaky Super Bowl MVP Sleeper Picks

• Rashid Shaheed (+2800)
• Stefon Diggs (+6000)
• TreVeyon Henderson (+7500)
• Cooper Kupp (+9000)
• Christian Gonzalez (+10000)

Want to seek out even more betting value for this market? You certainly have options in front of you. But if you want a sleeper bet that makes sense, I’d start with the five guys listed above.

First, there’s Shaheed. He isn’t very involved in Seattle’s offense from a volume perspective, but he has the speed to take any touch to the house and could easily make his presence felt in the return game.

Shaheed is a very interesting Super Bowl MVP sleeper pick, although I wish he had more appealing odds.

Someone like Diggs is more interesting at a +6000 price tag. Diggs has had an up-and-down career and has changed teams a handful of times. He could finally have his shining moment on the biggest stage of his career, and if he shows out, he just might take home the hardware.

The same could be said for guys like Henderson or Kupp. Henderson is a pivot away from Kenneth Walker III. We can use that same logic and apply it to the explosive rookie back, albeit with a much more alluring price.

Kupp is a greybeard whose best days are admittedly behind him, but he has a Super Bowl MVP in his back pocket already.

He also may be called upon more than you’d think, especially given New England’s elite secondary. Could the Pats go so far out of their way to slow down JSN that Kupp racks up catches and makes a huge impact? It’s not impossible.

Lastly, let Christian Gonzalez represent all of the possibilities via any defensive players in this Super Bowl. He stands out due to his price, plus the task ahead of him. If he can successfully slow down JSN in a low-scoring game, he could get the nod. He would improve his chances even more if he can nab a pick from Darnold, while a pick-6 would cement it.

Darnold is known for turning the ball over, and this game features the top two defenses in the NFL, so a defensive Super Bowl MVP winner isn’t that crazy.

Who Typically Wins the Super Bowl MVP?

As noted before, this is basically a quarterback award, and it’s been more so the case over the last 20 years.

Still, other positions can win, depending on how the game plays out. Here are things to consider when looking at game flow and expected result:

• Huge statistical performances
• Surprise x-factors
• Low-scoring defensive battles
• Momentum-swinging plays

This is actually the exact type of Super Bowl matchup where we want to consider how and why an outlier would make sense.

We have the two best scoring defenses in football, two very good units at preventing big plays, and two offenses that thrive off of splash plays. It creates a really tough environment to project, so while betting on the QBs remains the safest path, taking stabs at seemingly random bets makes a lot of sense.

Avoiding defensive players in general is still probably wise, but given the makeup of this particular matchup, you can’t completely rule it out.

That said, based on history, quarterbacks are most likely to win, followed by wide receivers and running backs. Never say never, but kickers and tight ends are a waste of your time. You can take your shots on defensive players, though.

Super Bowl MVP Betting Tips

Okay, so you’re ready to bet on who will win the Super Bowl 2026 MVP award. You should have a good amount of information to nudge you in the right direction, but consider these tips before finalizing your bets:

• Quarterbacks Usually Win
• Game Script is Everything
• WRs > RBs for Outlier Bets
• Defensive MVPs Require Chaos
• Narrative > Boxscore

Quarterbacks win this award most of the time, so plan most of your Super Bowl MVP bets accordingly. That doesn’t mean you should ignore certain context, but if a game sets up for either quarterback to have success, your main goal then becomes nailing the one who wins.

It’s not easy to predict how games will go in the NFL, but projecting things is key to identifying the right MVP pick. This is especially important for non-QB bets. If you’re betting on a specific player, ask yourself how many things need to go right in order for them to win. How much of an outlier does their performance need to be?

When going against the grain, start with the positions that make the most sense after quarterback. Based on history, that’s wide receivers, then running backs. Wide receivers have easier paths to racking up gaudy stat lines, as receptions are valued higher than rushing attempts.

The real trick – especially for a game like Super Bowl 60 – is gauging how likely it is that a defensive player could win. Then consider what their path to winning would be, and what goes into that route. Defensive stats and scores are key, while momentum-swinging plays can offer momentum to obscure players.

Lastly, don’t forget about narrative. It’s the lifeblood of sports in general, so while all players start out with a chance to win the Super Bowl MVP, a few have stronger narratives to fall back on.

For instance, Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp, and even Stefon Diggs have redemption arcs. Drake Maye could become the youngest Super Bowl-winning quarterback of all time, and on it goes.

Recent Super Bowl MVP Winners

Who Will Win the Super Bowl MVP in 2026?

You know what the likely path to the Super Bowl MVP is. Quarterback dominates this award, the winning team’s passer gets the nod, and narratives are a big deal. Due to these things, if the Seahawks live up to their status as this year’s Super Bowl favorite, I think Sam Darnold walks away with the hardware.

Darnold is a former #2 overall draft pick, and while he flamed out with the New York Jets, the talent was always there. It took a while for him to be fully tapped into, but the player we’ve seen the last two years is borderline elite.

From a talent and narrative perspective, Darnold passes the eye test. And he happens to be on the best team. He can carry Seattle if he has to, but thanks to an explosive ground game, a superstar wide receiver, and a smothering defense, that may not end up being the case.

There’s still some wiggle room for obscure players to rise up and win bettors a lot of money. But if we approach this year’s Super Bowl MVP betting market appropriately, there’s only one answer.

2026 Super Bowl MVP Prediction: Sam Darnold (+125)