2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals Prediction

The 2026 Winter Olympics are well underway, and currently, it’s Norway’s race to lose. FanDuel has Norway as the far and away favorite to claim the most gold medals before the dust settles in Italy, and time is running out for another country to give them a good sweat.

This has already been an insane Winter Olympics run, whether it be the gritty effort by seasoned veteran Lindsey Vonn or, or Austrian snowboarder Benjamin Karl claiming gold at age 40.

Can anyone actually catch Norway? Not if you ask the experts who previewed these Winter Games before they began. Norway was a top pick by many to win gold the most, and they entered the 2026 Winter Olympics with -195 odds to do just that.

Now priced as obscene favorites, bettors need to consider who can stage the upset, or if betting on who will win the most gold medals at the Winter Olympics is even worth their time. To get a good idea of where this market is at, let’s go over the latest odds and work our way to a prediction.

Latest Odds to Win the Most Gold Medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics

Norway pulls in with staggering -900 odds to win the most gold medals in this installment of the Winter Games. They’re very much in the lead with six gold medals already claimed (at the time of this writing), while the next closest country only has three.

That’d be Switzerland, but considering their +10000 odds, they aren’t a great bet to hold onto second place for much longer.

The USA is really the only country with a legit shot to unseat Norway, but their +500 odds are both comforting and discouraging. Those odds mean they’re the team with the best chance, but they’re also a clear indication that this is quite an uphill battle ahead of them.

Pulling in third is Germany with +3300, while nobody else is even at +5000. Italy would make for a heck of a story if they could storm back as the host nation, but with their +6000 odds, they are looking like a long shot at best.

You can bet on which country will win the most gold medals now, but this demands to be analyzed further. Let’s first inspect why Norway is favored, and gauge which contenders have a real shot at giving them a run for their money.

Why is Norway Favored to Win the Most Gold Medals?

It’s pretty simple. Norway is stacked this year, and they were a -195 favorite to win the most gold hardware even before the 2026 Winter Games got going. Now that they’ve raced out to a three-medal lead over the next closest country, it’s going to be difficult to match them – let alone beat them.

They’re even making history in this year’s games:

Norway dominated the last Winter Games, too. They had more total medals (37) than anyone at the 2022 Games, and they also secured the most gold medals (16). Four years prior they were among the best, as they once again won the most total medals and tied for first in gold medal wins.

A mainstay at the Winter Olympics, Norway was always expected to be a problem for everyone else. They’ve lived up to expectations and would now need an epic collapse to fail to hold onto the top spot.

Cruising out to a big early lead is important, but Norway is going to be in contention for a lot more medals.

Top Contenders to Take Down Norway

Norway has been pretty tough to beat at the Winter Olympics for some time now. They were fully expected to be the trend setter this year, and it’d be nothing short of shocking if they actually relinquished their gold medal lead at this point.

That said, the Olympics can be pretty crazy, and there are some countries who could heat up in a hurry. The odds aren’t amazing, but if you’re betting against Norway, start with these three contenders:

Top Longshot Bet to Win the Most Gold Medals

Truth be told, anything after the United States feels like a pretty big gamble. The US isn’t a great bet even at +500, but if you bet on another country, you’re already not really carrying about any risk.

Naturally, you should tread lightly with any bets outside of Norway or Team USA. That said, if you’re going to go big, why not aim super high with someone like France (+10000)?

It’s a true longshot bet, but France is actually going to be a viable option in a lot of competitions. Clement Noel (+500) has the third best price going into the Slalom Men event, Erik Perrot (+500) has the second best odds for the men’s 10km Biathlon Sprint, Lou Jeanmonnot (+350) is actually favored to win the women’s 12.5km Mass Start, and Team France is a -145 favorite to take gold at the 4x6km women’s Relay.

Even sweeping those events won’t be enough, of course. However, if France can win the events they are favored in and surprise in a few others, they could be a +10000 bet worth taking a chance on.

Who Will Win the Most Gold Medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

There, you have a breakdown of why Norway is favored, who their top challengers are, and a sleeper pick that would net a sick return if they delivered.

However, this Winter Games betting market boils down to two things: Norway isn’t a country you should be betting on anymore, and you’d be best served sticking to individual event betting.

While undeniably true, I think the math points to the United States being the only viable bet here. They are favored in a slew of remaining scheduled events, and they have enough talent and sheer volume to make a push in a handful of others.

If you must bet on which country will win the most gold medals, I’d target Team USA. I think Norway still gets it done, but the United States absolutely has a path to the top spot, and you can’t beat that +500 price.

2025-26 NBA MVP Race: Latest Odds & Our Prediction for Who Wins

The race for the 2025-26 NBA MVP is officially on. It’s literally been going on for months, but we have updated odds at DraftKings, with Oklahoma City Thunder star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge (-230).

But is he the rightful favorite? And should bettors be considering someone else? There are some mild cases for other players involved, while their NBA MVP odds alone demand we at least give them a cursory glance.

SGA is putting up big numbers, and he’s on the best team in the NBA. That combination is hard to fight against, but before betting on NBA player futures like this, turning over every stone is highly suggested.

Wondering who will win the NBA MVP award this year? Or simply looking for a reason not to bet on SGA? I’ll break down the latest NBA MVP betting odds, detail why SGA is favored, highlight the best alternative bets, and close things out with a final NBA MVP prediction.

Latest NBA MVP Odds for 2025-26

SGA comes in with the best odds to win the NBA MVP award this year. That makes sense, as he won the award last year and led his Oklahoma City Thunder to the franchise’s first ever championship.

Gilgeous-Alexander has admittedly done nothing to lose the award, either. He’s putting up big numbers, and the Thunder are once again in contention for the NBA’s best record.

That said, his price is not very inviting, and there are some very strong cases for some of the other options. Nikola Jokic is a walking triple-double and offers solid value, Luka Doncic would be a first-time winner and is churning out insane production, and there are a few other players listed at intriguing prices with viable arguments backing them.

Not sure who the NBA MVP winner is? Let’s go over the top options and find out the best way to bet on this award.

Why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA MVP Favorite

NBA MVP awards can often come in bunches. Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic are three players who have all won back-to-back MVPs in just the last decade.

SGA continues to churn out elite production, too. He’s averaging 31.8 points per game while finding the time to dish out 6.4 assists per game. On top of that, he’s making an impact as a defender (1.3 steals per game), and shooting a career-high 55% from the field.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s team success is also tough to ignore. He’s on par statistically with where he was last year, and his Thunder haven’t skipped a beat. OKC currently owns the top seed in The Association and could be well on their way to a title defense.

The league MVP isn’t always from the NBA’s best team, but numbers like this and high-level team success certainly make for a strong case for SGA to repeat.

Why SGA Might Not Win

There are a few reasons why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might not win the NBA MVP award. The first is general fatigue. Voters have only awarded him the trophy once, but there is a pretty loud narrative that he is a “free throw merchant” and wouldn’t be nearly as impactful without getting to the line 9.2 times per game like he does.

Another issue is the competition. SGA’s team success is unmatched, and his numbers across the board are as good as anyone’s. But he’s not the top guy in a lot of key categories. If the MVP voters want to value top-shelf production, SGA may not actually be the first choice in this year’s NBA MVP race.

Top 2025-26 NBA MVP Contenders

• Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
• Luka Doncic, F, Los Angeles Lakers
• Cade Cunningham, PG, Detroit Pistons

I can’t leave out Jokic, simply because he is a three-time NBA MVP winner and comes in with the second-best odds this year. He appears to be a distant second in this NBA MVP race, however, and he’s missed a good chunk of the season with an injury.

Statistically, Jokic is still a legit threat and easily a top-5 player in the league. His Denver Nuggets continue to win games at a solid rate, too. He checks every box, other than the fact that availability has been an issue, and NBA MVP voters might be sick of choosing him.

Availability is the biggest problem, though, as Jokic would no longer be eligible if he missed even one more game this year.

That seems problematic. If he can stay on the court the rest of the way he’s a threat, but that might be asking a lot.

Luka Doncic is a very interesting option. His Los Angeles Lakers are right up there with the best teams in the Western Conference and just recently were in play for the #2 seed. If the Lakers can stay among the top four seeds, he has to garner serious consideration.

Doncic carries major weight when it comes to production, star power, and narrative. His team’s success is good enough, and he’s 1st in several key categories – namely points per game – and top-5 in a bunch of others.

The narrative backing him is that he’s a superstar that puts up insane numbers, yet hasn’t won this award in his career. He may finally be due, provided the voting panel can overlook his subpar defense.

Cade Cunningham is more of a narrative and team success play. He’s led his Detroit Pistons to the best record in the Eastern Conference, and he’s averaging a double-double on the year. In the name of Steve Nash, he should be getting more of a look than he ultimately will.

My Favorite NBA MVP Sleeper Pick

What you define as being a true NBA MVP sleeper is up to you, but since the shortlist is, well, kind of short, I think anyone beyond Cade Cunningham at +2000 qualifies as a sleeper.

All things considered, the value bet with the most compelling case to win the NBA MVP award has to be Jaylen Brown. He’s not considered a true contender, but he offers a fun price tag at +3500, and he actually has a strong case.

Context is key here, as the Boston Celtics were not supposed to be this good after seeing Jayson Tatum tear his Achilles during the playoffs last season.

Jaylen Brown, to this point, hadn’t been asked to be his team’s top scoring option, either. The 29-year-old responded with what has become his best season to date, as he’s putting up an insane 29.5 points per game while keeping his Celtics near the top of the Eastern Conference.

Boston may not get the #1 seed when it’s all said and done, but the fact that they’re even remotely in the mix is absurd. Brown’s numbers are a big reason why, too, as he’s racking up seven rebounds and 4.8 dimes per game, while shooting a healthy 48.6% from the floor and also contributing on the defensive side.

It’s not the sexiest NBA MVP pick, but it’s a high-value option that just might have legs to it.

Best NBA MVP Bets Right Now

• Favorite: SGA (-230)
• Challenger: Luka Doncic (+2000)
• Sleeper: Jaylen Brown (+3500)

If you want the best NBA MVP picks to target right now, I think it comes down to three different types of bets. SGA is the clear favorite and likely winner, Doncic is probably the most compelling “realistic” contender, and Jaylen Brown is the most enticing high upside dice roll.

That doesn’t mean we should ignore Nikola Jokic at +350 or that we can’t bet on Cunningham at +2000, but these are best overall bets for this market.

Key Factors That Decide Who Will Win the NBA MVP

There are a few things you need to keep in mind when betting on the next NBA MVP. Throughout history, most of the winners have had much of the same criteria, making the following pretty important:

• Team Success
• Elite Production
• Positive Advanced Metrics
• Individual Narrative
• Availability

It’s pretty simple. To win the NBA MVP, your team can’t be bad. You don’t need to have the #1 seed or the best record in your conference necessary, but it does help. And no matter how good your numbers are, you’re not claiming the hardware if your team isn’t among the league’s best.

On top of strong team success, you need big-time numbers. MVP winners typically lead the league in scoring or are at least close to it. The ones that don’t need to dominate in another fashion like Steve Nash, who averaged a double-double in his two MVP wins.

Sometimes the MVP race goes deeper with advanced metrics playing a role. This isn’t always a deciding factor, of course, and is often used more to differentiate in the event of a tight MVP race.

Just as meaningful as those criteria, however, is a good storyline. Narrative is important to a strong NBA MVP case, although we’ve seen people win it without it.

Lastly, you need to play most of the year. It’s hard to be the MVP of your own team – let alone the face of the NBA – if you’re not actually on the court. As long as you check all of these boxes, you’re at least in the conversation.

Recent NBA MVP Winners

2025-26 NBA MVP Prediction – Who Will Win?

All roads undeniably lead back to SGA. The NBA media fawns over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and it doesn’t appear that anyone voting on the NBA MVP winner cares about his negatives. And the betting apps seem to feel the same way.

To be fair, nobody can rival his efficiency, team success, or across-the-board elite play. The fact that he’s not a minus on defense like some other candidates also aids his case.

If SGA doesn’t win, my next best bet is Luka. He is crushing statistically, and if the Lakers can push their way to the 2nd or 3rd seed, I think he has a real chance to unseat SGA. That said, NBA MVP winners can repeat when the case is as strong as it is with SGA. Perhaps Luka will be a more compelling bet next year.

Super Bowl 60 Prop Bets: 10 Best Props to Bet for the 2026 Big Game

Super Bowl 60 is almost here, and the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots promise to deliver an unforgettable game. This game features two nasty defenses, two compelling quarterbacks, and a pair of dynamic offenses with a penchant for the big play.

It will be very interesting to see which narrative seizes the day, and whether or not these offenses can win out in the face of brutal matchups. Even more interesting, of course, is how we can profit from the Big Game.

You can bet on the game itself by checking out my Super Bowl 2026 prediction, or you can also target some Super Bowl 60 prop bets. I’ve detailed 10 that look amazing heading into Super Bowl Sunday, and I’ll also equip you with some tips to keep in mind when betting.

Without further haste, here are the 10 best Super Bowl 2026 prop bets to target this weekend:

How We Choose the Best Super Bowl Props

Before I hand you my favorite Super Bowl LX props, here’s a quick breakdown as to why you should care about these picks.

There are a lot of Super Bowl prop bet lists out there, so what makes ours any different? For starters, we’re putting a lot of factors together to give you the best props to target.

The following is considered for any Super Bowl prop that graces this list:

• Line value + mispricing
• Market popularity vs. sharp money
• Game script correlation
• Matchup-specific angles

None of this guarantees these Super Bowl 60 props will deliver, but this is a layered approach to ensure these bets all give you maximum value.

Beyond this, we like to be right, and we like to see people win. You can target our top 10 Super Bowl 2026 prop bets knowing we want them to hit almost as much as you do. With that, let’s get to the 10 best Super Bowl LX prop bets I love ahead of the Big Game.

10 Best Super Bowl 60 Prop Bets

These are my 10 favorite Super Bowl props for 2026. You won’t find that many of them have absurd pricing, because I am going for actual value, and not filler.

I’ll list each Super Bowl prop and explain what makes them stand out for me:

Super Bowl 60 Prop Betting Strategy Tips

It’s important not to be reckless with your Super Bowl prop betting. There’s a never-ending sea of props to target, so you need to be careful where you bet and how you bet.

Whether you use my top 10 Super Bowl props or not, I do urge you to consider adhering to the following Super Bowl prop betting tips:

• Avoid sexy Super Bowl props – The weirder the Super Bowl prop, the worse it probably is for your wallet. Crazy Super Bowl prop bets are fun, but you should target them very lightly if you want to actually win money.
• Restrict Super Bowl prop betting volume – Cut down your Super Bowl props to a shortlist of wagers you like. Then maybe even cut that in half. Target a small number of Super Bowl 60 props with a finite amount of money to restrict budget spend and boost the probability of winning.
• Don’t bet on all of my top 10 Super Bowl props – I love all of my top Super Bowl 60 props, but going 10/10 is very difficult. In fact, avoid Super Bowl parlays at a high level. You can have fun with huge parlays, or you can target isolated bets and improve your chances of actually profiting.
• Shop Super Bowl lines aggressively (and carefully) – My top 10 Super Bowl prop bets all came from DraftKings, but definitely shop around and find the best price possible among the NFL betting sites you call home.

There are surely more Super Bowl prop betting tips out there, but the ones above should put you in a great spot – along with my top picks – to profit this Super Bowl Sunday.

What is the Best Super Bowl 60 Prop Betting Sportsbook?

I grabbed all of these Super Bowl 60 prop bets from DraftKings. It’s undeniably one of the best Super Bowl betting sites you’ll find online, but it’s also not the only one.

I’m not here to push you to any one site in particular. DraftKings was a great resource when considering Super Bowl prop bet variety and selection, as well as odds. However, instead of just using only them, I’d encourage you to use several football sportsbooks, no matter what kind of Super Bowl betting you plan on doing.

Take a look at our list of the best football betting sites. We offer full breakdowns and rankings for the best options out there, making it easy to pick the best site that’s right for you.

They’re all great, though, so using several to locate the best possible Super Bowl 60 props is my main preference.

The Best Super Bowl 60 Prop Bet You Can’t Ignore

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Longest Catch Over 25+ Yards (-184)

I’ve detailed 10 Super Bowl prop bets that I am very high on, but there is one that really takes the cake. That’s none other than JSN to have a 25+ yard catch.

Why do I like this prop bet so much? Because JSN has been a consistently elite producer down the field, and Seattle’s passing game relies on him making splash plays. Even better? JSN has a path to success whether the Seahawks are winning or losing this game.

• On one hand, Seattle will look to keep New England’s secondary honest by attacking down the field.
• On the other hand, even if the Seahawks are trailing in Super Bowl 60, they’d need to be throwing and attacking aggressively.

You can target that Super Bowl prop bet or roll with any of the others I’ve listed above. But as noted in my tips sections, I don’t suggest hammering all of them together. Nobody giving out Super Bowl 60 picks is perfect, so the odds of them all hitting is pretty low.

That goes into my general tips, too; make sure you’re being selective, shopping for odds, and only targeting the best bets that you actually feel strongly about. Most of all, keep things relatively light if you can, and don’t risk more money than you can afford to lose.

Giannis Antetokounmpo NBA Trade Rumors: Odds, Teams & Next NBA Destination

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s time with the Milwaukee Bucks is over. Not officially, mind you, while even a recently released interview by the New York Times sparked newfound hope that he may not leave Mil-town.

However, closer inspection of what The Greek Freak actually says in that interview, as well as what he’s been saying for months now, suggests a trade is just around the corner.

It’s still anyone’s guess as to who Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team will actually be, or even when he will get traded. The speculation has run wild when it comes to these NBA trade rumors, and unless Thursday’s NBA trade deadline comes and goes without a deal being dropped, the buzz won’t stop.

DraftKings has a futures bet up right now for where his next regular-season minute will be played following the 2025-26 trade deadline. That begs two questions to be answered: will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded, and where will he go if he’s dealt?

I’ll break down the latest Giannis Antetokounmpo trade odds and analyze how likely he is to be moved, and which team makes the most sense in a prospective deal.

Latest Odds for Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Next Team

These are the teams with the best odds of trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo, while the Bucks are still favored to be the one to hold his rights once the NBA trade deadline has passed.

It’s an interesting betting market, simply because Giannis not being moved by the deadline doesn’t necessarily mean he doesn’t get traded this offseason. However, DraftKings explicitly lists it as a wager for just the 2025-26 NBA season.

That means whoever you pick for Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next NBA team, he has to play for them this year. This could be problematic, seeing as the Bucks have an incentive to find the best deal possible, and numerous teams that have serious interest have told them that they can sweeten the deal during the offseason.

While that may be true, Milwaukee’s leverage for the best possible deal could dry up before then. Giannis has also been public about not wanting to waste time and having a desire to contend right now. At age 31, who could blame him?

So, unless he signed off on the team tanking behind closed doors, he’d almost definitely want to return from his current calf injury and play after the NBA All-Star Break.

That has the makings of two ships passing in the night and going in very different directions. Still, there’s really good value with a lot of these Giannis trade odds. Either you believe he’s definitely staying put and you can hammer the Bucks at -160, or you can take a shot at plus money with anyone else that makes sense.

But which teams have a legit chance of trading for Giannis this season? I’ll break down the top contenders, my favorite sleeper pick, and end with my final Giannis Antetokounmpo trade prediction.

Why the Bucks Are Favored to Keep Giannis

Sometimes the markets price themselves. There is so much uncertainty surrounding this situation, as every single person attached to it is difficult to trust.

Milwaukee head coach Doc Rivers has said Giannis isn’t going anywhere, and Giannis himself dropped some compelling quotes in his recent interview that could be twisted as him saying he’s not leaving.

But a closer look might suggest that Rivers is simply delivering coachspeak and that Giannis is reflecting on the past more than he’s looking to the future when discussing the Bucks.

Favorites don’t always win, either, while a -160 price is nice if it pans out, but it’s far from a lock.

The reality is Milwaukee is well below .500, and they’re not even a playoff team as I write this, much less a title contender. The Bucks have tried ad nauseam to satisfy Gianni,s and still this is where they wound up – in salary cap hell with no clear path to title contention in sight.

Milwaukee could convince Giannis to stay by saying they’ll tank this year, offload bad contracts, and rebuild this summer. But there’s no guarantee that work,s and waiting only risks losing further leverage in Giannis trade talks.

The Bucks are an appealing bet at -160, and there is a chance he does get moved in the offseason, but this isn’t where I’d be investing my money with this betting market.

Top Contenders to Trade for Giannis

There are only four teams with odds better than +1000 to land Giannis Antetokounmpo, so it only makes sense that we should spend a little time on them.

Let’s do some quick vetting as to why these could be Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team:

Other Contenders to Land Giannis Antetokounmpo

• New York Knicks (+1600)
• Portland Trail Blazers (+2200)
• Philadelphia 76ers (+3000)

These three teams are also in the mix and offer supreme betting value as longshots that may have a better chance than most people think.

New York has been salivating over the idea of trading for Giannis since last year. In fact, media pundits have been talking about a Giannis exit and aligning the stars to send him to MSG for years now.

How real it is remains to be seen, but the Knicks have a loaded roster that would make a trade very easy to figure out. The big issue would be draft pick compensation and which pieces the Bucks would want to pry away from New York.

Portland is also extremely interesting, as there is a lot of chatter about Giannis liking the idea of teaming back up with old teammates Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday. Both are members of the Trail Blazers, while the team has a really nice young core with emerging stars such as Deni Avdija, Donovan Clinga, Shaedon Sharpe, and Scoot Henderson.

If any team is equipped to unload impressive talent in an effort to expedite their rise to contending status, it’s Portland.

Lastly, let’s not ignore the 76ers. Philly is another team with a lot of talent and depth, but they could still be one key piece from being the true favorite in the Eastern Conference.

Just imagine Giannis standing next to Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey gunning defenses on every possession. That is one sick trio that could be impossible to stop.

All it’d take to get a deal done? Dangling star rookie VJ Edgecombe, some more prospects, and some picks. Philly is absolutely a dark horse contender, as they fit the Giannis championship window, they have the tools to make a deal happen, and they have extremely favorable odds for bettors willing to take a risk.

The Top Sleeper Team to Trade for Giannis

Not getting enough value with all of these other possible Giannis Antetokounmpo landing spots? Then let’s go even bigger with the Oklahoma City Thunder. The defending champs have struggled with health and consistency a bit more than anyone thought they would, but as the top team in the NBA, they are clearly in play to repeat as league champs.

There are negative optics for Giannis here. He’d be joining a team literally coming off of a championship, so it’d be a dent in his legacy. However, OKC has draft picks, and they have gobs of interesting talent they can throw at the wall.

The Thunder could dangle Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren in Giannis trade talks, moving from the most likely champion to a team virtually nobody has a chance against.

Obviously, the problem is that OKC may not see the point of messing with their chemistry. The roster they have is the one they built and won with, after all. Nothing we’ve seen this year really suggests they aren’t still the team to beat, either.

The Longshot Team to Land Giannis

Even if you’re betting on Giannis to stay with the Bucks at -160, you’re getting value. If you bet on any other team to trade for him and end up being right, you’ll more than double your money.

There is also a chance this is all for nothing, so taking a blind shot on a wild option simply might make life a bit more fun. If you go that route, consider doing it with the Denver Nuggets.

Denver is already in position to contend this year. The duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray has them closing in on second place in the Western Conference, but they still are a distant second to the Thunder, along with everyone else.

The Nuggets have some solid pieces they could send Milwaukee’s way, especially with youngster Peyton Watson emerging recently. On top of some nice players they could include in any prospective Giannis trade, the Nuggets have a few picks to include, but may need a third team to assist in a deal.

Of course, the point here is two-fold: the Nuggets are right there in terms of contending, and their +10000 odds are pretty alluring. Now it just comes down to them shocking the world.

Where Will Giannis Antetokounmpo Play Next?

Now comes the time for a final Giannis Antetokounmpo prediction. Milwaukee’s price keeps moving. Seriously, when I started writing this, they were a -135 favorite, and now they’re up to -160. That means people are betting on them enough to boost their line, and the betting public is forming a consensus that he isn’t getting traded before the deadline.

The New York Times interview and countless Giannis trade rumors being leaked have swayed bets, but I am sticking to my guns and saying I think he gets dealt. The only question is where?

Ultimately, the Bucks need to leverage what they have in their possession: a top-5 superstar with two years on his deal. If they wait to move him until after the trade deadline, his value drops, however, as it goes from two playoff runs worth of Giannis to him being a one-year rental.

If we’re looking at the big picture from all angles, I think all roads lead to the Miami Heat. They give Giannis a clear path to winning, a strong head coach, a front office committed to seeking championships, and he gets to stay in the East.

For Giannis, the Heat are a big win, and a long-term deal is also going to be on the table.

It’s a huge play for Miami, who are just 27-25, but are a bit better than their record shows. They are also the perfect team for a Giannis-led offense, as he takes care of business inside and when the defense collapses, their murderer’s row of outside shooters make opposing teams pay.

On the other side, the Bucks should come away plenty pleased, too. Tyler Herro and Kel’el Ware headline a solid trade in terms of talent going north, but the Heat also own their own first round draft pick this year, as well as 2029, 2030, 2031, and 2031.

The only question is the asking price. Are the Bucks demanding all of Miami’s young talent and all of their picks? Probably. Depending on what the true hangup is and how badly Miami wants Giannis, we could have a problem.

But winning doesn’t have a price. I think Pat Riley caves in the end, gives the Bucks a king’s ransom, and all sides walk away happy. It’ll be the end of an era, and it’ll be sad to see Giannis in another jersey, but anyone willing to slap a bet on the Heat at +900 probably won’t care.

Super Bowl MVP Odds with Top Picks & Prediction

Super Bowl 60 is less than two weeks away. Betting on the Big Game is a tradition unlike any other, and predicting who will win the Super Bowl MVP award goes right into that.

Except, this is usually one of the safest bets you can place on the Super Bowl. Quarterbacks almost always win Super Bowl MVP, so the only thing you really need to do is decide which team will win.

The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks will square off in the 2026 Super Bowl, meaning all eyes will be on quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Drake Maye. While history suggests one of them will win the Super Bowl MVP, bettors need to either decide which one, or bet on something crazy happening.

To dive into it, let’s look at the latest Super Bowl MVP odds. Who is the Super Bowl MVP favorite, the top contenders, and some sleeper bets? I’ll go over it all, point you to the best bets for the market, and cap things off with a final Super Bowl MVP prediction.

Current Super Bowl MVP Odds for 2026

These are the top 10 players in terms of Super Bowl 60 MVP odds. They are the best bets to win the award, but that definitely doesn’t mean bettors should stop here.

Still, quarterbacks almost always win the Super Bowl MVP, so starting with Sam Darnold vs. Drake Maye is wise. Looking back, a quarterback has claimed the hardware from the winning side in each of the last three seasons and eight times since 2015.

It's been NINE consecutive years that we've seen a QB or WR win Super Bowl MVP – Is another position destined to win it in Super Bowl LX? 👀 pic.twitter.com/LAVBTBf3TD

— theScore Bet (@theScoreBet) January 27, 2026

It is not necessarily as much of a “quarterback award” as the regular-season NFL MVP award tends to be, but if the quarterback has a good game and his team wins, he will most likely be the winner.

However, where value can arise is when there is a potential defensive battle and/or if there are skill position players with huge performances. This game offers paths to both of those, meaning while Darnold and Maye stand out as the top picks, they’re not the only players worth betting on.

I’ll go over the most viable Super Bowl MVP betting candidates, but first, let’s break down why Sam Darnold is the favorite for this year.

Why is Sam Darnold the Super Bowl MVP Favorite?

The easiest answer for this question is that Darnold is the quarterback for the team currently favored to win Super Bowl XL.

Darnold has a really strong narrative backing him, even besides that, though, as he’s had an amazing season. Even more important, of course, is his label as a former draft bust.

The New York Jets made Darnold the top pick in the NFL Draft back in 2018, and things did not work out with the franchise. Darnold then bounced around the league and seemed to be on his way out before resurrecting his career last year with the Minnesota Vikings.

Minnesota tossed him aside, and he was forced to once again start over with Seattle. Luckily for him, he churned out his second straight stellar campaign and is now in a position to complete a full 180 on his NFL career.

Needless to say, it will be extremely hard for the Super Bowl MVP voters to bypass him if his team wins and he has even a small hand in it.

Should Darnold play well and Seattle emerge victorious, it would be a shock if he didn’t get the award. In fact, it would probably require an outlier performance by someone else on his team, and/or a very weak statistical output from him.

That is not impossible, however, which is why anyone looking to bet on the Super Bowl MVP winner needs to turn over every stone.

Is Darnold the rightful favorite? Yes. He’s also a stellar value, all things considered, but let’s consider all options before dropping a Super Bowl MVP prediction.

Top Super Bowl MVP Contenders

• Drake Maye, QB, Patriots (+235)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks (+550)
• Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks (+650)

Sam Darnold is the favorite to win the 2026 Super Bowl MVP award, but not by much. Right behind him is Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who is following in Tom Brady’s footsteps.

There’s also JSN and Kenneth Walker III, two players on the favored Seahawks who have displayed explosive upside. If they outshine Darnold in a win, they could easily get the nod.

These are your main Super Bowl XL MVP contenders, and they’re the only players coming in below +1000. Here’s a breakdown of each and why they can win the MVP award:

Why Drake Maye Can Win Super Bowl MVP

Maye can make even more interesting history, as a win would make him the youngest Super Bowl-winning quarterback in NFL history. Adding the MVP trophy would be a nice bonus, and at +235, he looks like a legitimate threat to do so.

What needs to happen? First, the Pats need to beat the Seahawks. Second, Maye probably needs to be the reason why New England wins. Making that happen could actually be more difficult than expected, too. Not only are the Patriots running into an elite Seattle defense, but Maye will need to have one of the best games of his life despite not being 100%.

Is Drake Maye surprised by all of the conversation about his shoulder?

"I mean, it's the right shoulder of a starting quarterback of an NFL team."

He gets it pic.twitter.com/lRymXwH99l

— Nicole Menner (@NicoleMenner) January 29, 2026

Maye is dealing with a shoulder injury that until now hasn’t generated a lot of buzz. That’s another thing that aids his case. If Maye balls out, he looks even better. If he simply guts out a tough performance and his team wins a low-scoring defensive battle and nobody else shines, he’d be the MVP almost by default.

New England hasn’t looked good on offense in their playoff run. You could argue that they’ve won these games despite Maye and the offense’s performance. But if their defense stifles Seattle and Maye doesn’t shoot himself in the foot, he’d still be the likely MVP winner.

Why JSN Can Win Super Bowl MVP

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has enjoyed an insane third NFL season. The second you thought he flashed his ceiling in 2024, he blew you away with a disgusting 119-1,793-10 stat line.

The only thing JSN can do for an encore is go crush in the biggest game of his life. He just did that against the Rams in the NFC title game, where he hauled in 10 passes for 153 yards and a score.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 10 of 12 targets for a team-high 153 receiving yards and a TD against the Rams.

JSN caught at least one pass against six different Rams defenders in coverage, and caught all 6 targets for 105 yards when aligned out wide.#LARvsSEA | @Seahawks pic.twitter.com/28SFLsbelN

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 26, 2026

Smith-Njigba is borderline uncoverable. He has a stiff test ahead of him against Christian Gonzalez, but he has the speed and jaw-dropping route-running to gain separation even in the toughest of spots.

Wide receivers can win the Super Bowl MVP award, too. We just saw Cooper Kupp do it a few years ago with the Rams, while Julian Edelman and Deion Branch won it for the Patriots in previous seasons.

Behind quarterbacks, the wide receiver position has racked up the most MVP wins in the Super Bowl. JSN could be next.

Why Kenneth Walker III Can Win Super Bowl MVP

The other compelling Super Bowl MVP contender is Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III. It’s not necessarily about building a strong case in his favor, but more about creating a narrative in the event the award doesn’t go to a quarterback.

If the Super Bowl MVP winner isn’t one of the quarterbacks and JSN doesn’t nab it, then we could be looking at a situation where the defenses dominate or a running back goes off.

Walker has flashed special ability, as he teed off on the San Francisco 49ers (3 TDs) a few weeks ago.

KEN WALKER III LEGACY GAME:

– 22 Touches
– 145 Yards
– 3 TD’s

He looked electric today, averaging 6.1 Yards Per Carry..

Seattle’s headed to the NFC Championship after their 41-6 Win over San Francisco

Pure dominance from start to finish pic.twitter.com/riuAjbDWJf

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbott) January 18, 2026

New England’s run defense is solid, but they can still give up some production, and if Walker hits home run plays like he’s capable of, their rankings against the run could ultimately be meaningless.

Someone is going to dominate this game. If someone from the passing game doesn’t, then banking on Walker popping off for some big gains and being the catalyst for a Seahawks win is an interesting way to bet on this market.

5 Sneaky Super Bowl MVP Sleeper Picks

• Rashid Shaheed (+2800)
• Stefon Diggs (+6000)
• TreVeyon Henderson (+7500)
• Cooper Kupp (+9000)
• Christian Gonzalez (+10000)

Want to seek out even more betting value for this market? You certainly have options in front of you. But if you want a sleeper bet that makes sense, I’d start with the five guys listed above.

First, there’s Shaheed. He isn’t very involved in Seattle’s offense from a volume perspective, but he has the speed to take any touch to the house and could easily make his presence felt in the return game.

Shaheed is a very interesting Super Bowl MVP sleeper pick, although I wish he had more appealing odds.

Someone like Diggs is more interesting at a +6000 price tag. Diggs has had an up-and-down career and has changed teams a handful of times. He could finally have his shining moment on the biggest stage of his career, and if he shows out, he just might take home the hardware.

The same could be said for guys like Henderson or Kupp. Henderson is a pivot away from Kenneth Walker III. We can use that same logic and apply it to the explosive rookie back, albeit with a much more alluring price.

Kupp is a greybeard whose best days are admittedly behind him, but he has a Super Bowl MVP in his back pocket already.

He also may be called upon more than you’d think, especially given New England’s elite secondary. Could the Pats go so far out of their way to slow down JSN that Kupp racks up catches and makes a huge impact? It’s not impossible.

Lastly, let Christian Gonzalez represent all of the possibilities via any defensive players in this Super Bowl. He stands out due to his price, plus the task ahead of him. If he can successfully slow down JSN in a low-scoring game, he could get the nod. He would improve his chances even more if he can nab a pick from Darnold, while a pick-6 would cement it.

Darnold is known for turning the ball over, and this game features the top two defenses in the NFL, so a defensive Super Bowl MVP winner isn’t that crazy.

Who Typically Wins the Super Bowl MVP?

As noted before, this is basically a quarterback award, and it’s been more so the case over the last 20 years.

Still, other positions can win, depending on how the game plays out. Here are things to consider when looking at game flow and expected result:

• Huge statistical performances
• Surprise x-factors
• Low-scoring defensive battles
• Momentum-swinging plays

This is actually the exact type of Super Bowl matchup where we want to consider how and why an outlier would make sense.

We have the two best scoring defenses in football, two very good units at preventing big plays, and two offenses that thrive off of splash plays. It creates a really tough environment to project, so while betting on the QBs remains the safest path, taking stabs at seemingly random bets makes a lot of sense.

Avoiding defensive players in general is still probably wise, but given the makeup of this particular matchup, you can’t completely rule it out.

That said, based on history, quarterbacks are most likely to win, followed by wide receivers and running backs. Never say never, but kickers and tight ends are a waste of your time. You can take your shots on defensive players, though.

Super Bowl MVP Betting Tips

Okay, so you’re ready to bet on who will win the Super Bowl 2026 MVP award. You should have a good amount of information to nudge you in the right direction, but consider these tips before finalizing your bets:

• Quarterbacks Usually Win
• Game Script is Everything
• WRs > RBs for Outlier Bets
• Defensive MVPs Require Chaos
• Narrative > Boxscore

Quarterbacks win this award most of the time, so plan most of your Super Bowl MVP bets accordingly. That doesn’t mean you should ignore certain context, but if a game sets up for either quarterback to have success, your main goal then becomes nailing the one who wins.

It’s not easy to predict how games will go in the NFL, but projecting things is key to identifying the right MVP pick. This is especially important for non-QB bets. If you’re betting on a specific player, ask yourself how many things need to go right in order for them to win. How much of an outlier does their performance need to be?

When going against the grain, start with the positions that make the most sense after quarterback. Based on history, that’s wide receivers, then running backs. Wide receivers have easier paths to racking up gaudy stat lines, as receptions are valued higher than rushing attempts.

The real trick – especially for a game like Super Bowl 60 – is gauging how likely it is that a defensive player could win. Then consider what their path to winning would be, and what goes into that route. Defensive stats and scores are key, while momentum-swinging plays can offer momentum to obscure players.

Lastly, don’t forget about narrative. It’s the lifeblood of sports in general, so while all players start out with a chance to win the Super Bowl MVP, a few have stronger narratives to fall back on.

For instance, Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp, and even Stefon Diggs have redemption arcs. Drake Maye could become the youngest Super Bowl-winning quarterback of all time, and on it goes.

Recent Super Bowl MVP Winners

Who Will Win the Super Bowl MVP in 2026?

You know what the likely path to the Super Bowl MVP is. Quarterback dominates this award, the winning team’s passer gets the nod, and narratives are a big deal. Due to these things, if the Seahawks live up to their status as this year’s Super Bowl favorite, I think Sam Darnold walks away with the hardware.

Darnold is a former #2 overall draft pick, and while he flamed out with the New York Jets, the talent was always there. It took a while for him to be fully tapped into, but the player we’ve seen the last two years is borderline elite.

From a talent and narrative perspective, Darnold passes the eye test. And he happens to be on the best team. He can carry Seattle if he has to, but thanks to an explosive ground game, a superstar wide receiver, and a smothering defense, that may not end up being the case.

There’s still some wiggle room for obscure players to rise up and win bettors a lot of money. But if we approach this year’s Super Bowl MVP betting market appropriately, there’s only one answer.

2026 Super Bowl MVP Prediction: Sam Darnold (+125)

Top 10 Prediction Markets to Watch in 2026

Prediction markets are no longer a fringe curiosity for political junkies or crypto diehards. They’re quietly becoming one of the most accurate—and controversial—ways to forecast the future. And in 2026, they’re sitting at a crossroads.

At a glance, prediction markets look simple: people buy and sell contracts based on what they think will happen. But under the surface, they’re doing something far more powerful. They aggregate belief, information, incentives, and timing into a single price—often beating polls, pundits, and even expert models.

That’s why regulators are nervous. It’s why sportsbooks are paying attention. And it’s why traders, bettors, and analysts are starting to treat prediction markets less like a novelty and more like a signal.

But here’s the catch: not all prediction markets are worth your time. Some are liquid and sharp. Others are thin, confusing, or restricted. A few are shaping the future of event trading. Most won’t survive the next regulatory or market cycle.

This guide breaks down the 10 prediction markets that actually matter heading into 2026—where the smart money is watching, what’s changing fast, and how to tell signal from noise before everyone else catches on.

How We Ranked These Prediction Markets

Prediction markets live or die on structure, not hype. A clever contract on a bad platform is still a bad market. That’s why this list isn’t ranked by brand recognition alone—or by how exciting the markets look at first glance.

Instead, we evaluated each platform the same way an experienced trader or bettor would: by asking whether it actually delivers usable signal, fair pricing, and a realistic way to participate without unnecessary friction.

Here’s what mattered most in our rankings:

• Liquidity & market depth – Can you get in and out without moving the price? Tight spreads and consistent volume matter far more than flashy market ideas.
• Market quality & clarity – Are contracts clearly worded? Are outcomes unambiguous? Vague resolution rules are one of the fastest ways to lose money.
• Settlement & dispute process – The best platforms obsess over how markets settle—what sources are used, how edge cases are handled, and what happens if reality doesn’t fit neatly into a yes/no box.
• Regulatory access & reliability – A great market doesn’t help if you can’t legally trade it where you live, or if it can disappear overnight due to enforcement pressure.
• User experience & friction – This includes onboarding, KYC, wallet setup (if applicable), order placement, mobile usability, and withdrawal speed.
• Innovation & forward momentum – We favored platforms that are expanding market types, improving tooling, or positioning themselves for broader adoption in 2026—not ones standing still.

In short, this ranking reflects where informed users can realistically trade, learn, and extract signal today—while still keeping an eye on what’s coming next.

Top 10 Prediction Markets to Watch in 2026

2026 is shaping up as a breakout year for prediction markets. Some platforms are becoming more mainstream and regulated, others are innovating with new market types or decentralized infrastructure, and a few are quietly building deep liquidity in niche categories. Whether you’re a seasoned trader, a bettor, or just curious about where crowd forecasts intersect with real-world outcomes, these are the markets worth your attention.

Below each entry you’ll find clear, bite-sized insights and concrete reasons why it matters — plus suggestions for visuals that boost reader understanding and retention.

How to Evaluate Any Prediction Market Like a Pro

Prediction markets reward people who evaluate market quality, not just outcomes. Two platforms can offer the same event, but the experience—and your results—can be wildly different depending on liquidity, wording, and settlement rules.

Before placing a single trade, sharp users run through a simple mental checklist.

1) Liquidity: Can You Enter and Exit?

Liquidity is the single most important factor in any prediction market.

A contract might look profitable, but if the order book is thin, you’ll pay for it through wide spreads or slippage.

What strong liquidity looks like:

• Tight bid-ask spreads (often just 1–2¢ on active markets)
• Consistent volume across price levels
• Ability to close a position without moving the market

Red flags:

• Huge gaps between buy and sell prices
• Volume concentrated in only one outcome
• Price jumps caused by small orders

Rule of thumb: If you can’t exit cleanly, you don’t really have a trade.

2) Contract Clarity: Does the Question Leave Room for Confusion?

Ambiguous contracts are where prediction markets quietly take money from new users.

Sharp platforms obsess over precise wording and edge cases.

Before trading, check:

• Exact phrasing of the question
• Timeframe and cutoff dates
• What source determines the outcome
• How partial or unexpected outcomes are handled

Common traps:

• Vague political phrasing (“wins,” “leads,” “controls”)
• Undefined data sources
• No guidance on postponements or cancellations

3) Settlement Rules: How Does This Actually Resolve?

Settlement is where theory meets reality—and where bad platforms fall apart.

The best markets clearly define who decides, how, and when.

Look for platforms that:

• Name official resolution sources upfront
• Publish timelines for settlement
• Explain dispute and appeal processes

Avoid markets where:

• Resolution depends on informal consensus
• Rules change mid-market
• Edge cases aren’t addressed

4) Fees & Friction: What’s the Real Cost of Trading?

Prediction markets often look cheap—until you factor in friction.

Evaluate the full cost:

• Trading fees or spreads
• Withdrawal fees
• KYC delays
• Wallet or gas fees (for crypto platforms)

Even small costs matter if you’re trading frequently or at scale.

5) Regulatory & Access Risk: Will This Market Still Exist Tomorrow?

A profitable market doesn’t help if it disappears overnight.

Ask yourself:

• Is this platform regulated, restricted, or operating in a gray area?
• Are users in your location allowed to trade?
• Has the platform faced enforcement action before?

Markets with regulatory clarity tend to:

• Offer better fiat on-ramps
• Provide clearer settlement rules
• Last longer through market cycles

6) Signal vs Noise: Is This Market Actually Informative?

Not every prediction market produces good signal.

Some reflect real information. Others reflect hype, ideology, or low-effort speculation.

Signs of high-quality signal:

• Prices adjust quickly to new information
• Liquidity grows around major updates
• Diverse participation (not just one crowd)

Signs of noise:

• Price stagnation despite news
• One-sided order flow
• Meme-driven volatility

Pro Takeaway

Great prediction market users don’t ask, “What do I think will happen?” They ask, “Is this a good market to trade?”

If you evaluate liquidity, clarity, settlement, friction, and signal quality first, you’ll avoid most of the traps that catch new traders—and you’ll start seeing prediction markets for what they really are: structured information systems with prices attached.

2026 Trends That Will Shape Prediction Markets

Prediction markets don’t evolve in isolation. They move alongside regulation, technology, and cultural acceptance. In 2026, a few forces are converging that will likely determine which platforms thrive, which stagnate, and which disappear altogether.

Regulation Will Remain the Main Battleground

The biggest story isn’t growth—it’s who gets to offer these markets, and where.

Regulators are still deciding whether prediction markets are:

• financial instruments,
• a form of gambling,
• or something entirely new that doesn’t fit existing frameworks.

What this means in practice:

• State vs federal tensions will continue, especially around event contracts
• Some platforms will pause or limit markets preemptively
• Regulated exchanges may gain trust, but move slower

Sports-Style Event Contracts Will Push Boundaries

Sports-adjacent markets are the fastest way prediction markets attract new users—and the fastest way they attract scrutiny.

These contracts feel familiar to bettors, but operate very differently under the hood.

Why this matters in 2026:

• Sports outcomes drive volume and attention
• The line between “forecasting” and “betting” gets blurry
• How regulators respond here will shape the entire industry

Weather & Climate Markets Will Gain Serious Attention

What once felt academic is becoming practical.

Weather, climate, and environmental outcomes are increasingly tradable—especially for hedging and forecasting purposes.

Expect growth in markets tied to:

• Extreme weather events
• Seasonal temperature ranges
• Climate policy milestones
• Energy and utility impacts

These markets attract non-speculative participants, which often improves signal quality.

Ethics, Information, and Insider Concerns Will Intensify

As prediction markets become more accurate—and more influential—the ethical questions get louder.

Key debates gaining traction:

• Who is allowed to trade on sensitive information?
• When does forecasting become influence?
• Should some markets exist at all?

Platforms will increasingly need clear guardrails to maintain legitimacy.

Traditional Finance Will Continue Moving In

Perhaps the most important long-term trend: prediction markets are being noticed by people with distribution.

When brokerages and exchanges experiment with event-style contracts, it signals validation—and pressure.

Why this matters:

• Mainstream UX expectations rise
• Liquidity could scale rapidly
• Smaller platforms may struggle to compete

2026 won’t be defined by whether prediction markets grow—but by how they mature. Platforms that balance clarity, compliance, and innovation will survive. The rest will be squeezed out by regulation, friction, or irrelevance.

Final Take: Where Prediction Markets Go From Here

Prediction markets are no longer just a novelty or a niche experiment. Heading into 2026, they’re evolving into real information markets—places where price often reflects reality faster than headlines, polls, or expert opinion.

But this space is still uneven. Some platforms are building deep liquidity, clear settlement rules, and legitimate pathways for mainstream users. Others are chasing hype without solving the fundamentals. Knowing the difference matters.

The smart approach isn’t to chase every new market—it’s to understand how these platforms work, why certain markets produce better signal, and where regulatory and structural risks still exist. That’s what separates casual speculation from informed participation.

If you’re new, start with clarity and accessibility. If you’re experienced, focus on liquidity and market quality. And if you’re watching from the sidelines, pay attention anyway—because prediction markets are quietly influencing how people think about politics, sports, weather, and even global events.

By the time prediction markets fully hit the mainstream, the edge will already be gone. The best position, as always, is early—but informed.

Who Will Win the Oscars Best Picture? Updated Odds & Market Breakdown

The 2026 Golden Globes are in the rearview mirror, which means it is officially Oscars season. Now that we have some hardware being handed out at several awards and the rumor mill has run wild, we can start taking a serious look at the latest Academy Awards odds.

The red carpet doesn’t roll out for the 2026 Oscars until March 15th, so we still have time to research and formulate some winning wagers.

Several Oscars betting markets stand out, but the big one forever remains Best Picture. BetMGM has Best Picture odds available to the public, with one clear favorite pulling in ahead of the rest. But based on what went down at the Golden Globes and other awards shows, is there a better option for entertainment bettors?

Let’s scan the latest Best Picture betting odds, discuss the top favorite, and identify some viable pivots. I’ll even tough on some longshot bets, some Oscars betting tips, and wrap things up with a final Best Picture prediction.

Current Best Picture Odds (2026)

One Battle After Another comes in as the clear betting favorite to win Best Picture at the 2026 Academy Awards. The Leonardo DiCaprio vehicle is a riveting cat-and-mouse shakedown that starts in arguably contrived fashion, but sets up exceptional characters and takes you on a tense ride that keeps you strapped into your seat until the very end.

While it makes sense as the Best Picture favorite, there could be some wiggle room for an upset. It isn’t priced at -1000 or anything insane, after all, while it does have some weakness to its armor.

That puts top contender Sinners in play, especially when you consider that the Michael B. Jordan thriller earned an Oscars record 16 nominations.

‘SINNERS’ has broken history as the MOST-NOMINATED FILM OF ALL TIME at the Oscars with 16 nominations

See the full nominees list: https://t.co/IuSVQZPi7d pic.twitter.com/qUzPM49IQ0

— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) January 22, 2026

Strength in numbers is certainly a thing, but none of that necessarily guarantees a Best Picture win.

Still, the Academy has spoken. They loved Sinners and if they enjoyed it enough to give it the most nominations for this year – nay, the most nominations of any movie of all-time – then you better believe it’s a threat.

In terms of Best Picture odds, nobody else comes close. This is probably One Battle After Another’s race to lose, and if it doesn’t win, Sinners is almost definitely the one to watch.

That said, at first glance, Hamnet and Marty Supreme do stand out as value bets that just might have legs. To get a better feel of the race to win the Best Picture award, let’s first dive into One Battle After Another’s case as a -300 favorite.

Why One Battle After Another is the Favorite

This was an exceptional movie from a tonal perspective, while the direction was fantastic and the acting was near-perfect. The only knock on this film was that the backstory was fairly unrealistic, while there are a few loose ends in the movie.

That said, we get a genre-blending action drama that takes you on a wild ride, while tugging at emotional strings and touching on relevant political commentary. It’s not your usual Best Picture contender, but that is also partially what makes it so good.

If you want to build a case for this movie, we need more than just numbers. Here is how it’s done at some key film festivals and other award shows:

• Critics’ Choice Award – Winner, Best Picture
• Chicago Film Critics Association Awards – Winner, Best Picture
• Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards – Winner, Best Picture
• Gotham Awards – Winner, Best Feature
• Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards – Winner, Best Picture
• National Board of Review, USA – Winner, Best Film
• New York Film Critics Circle Awards – Winner, Best Film
• Golden Globes – Winner, Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

There’s more to add to the list, but these are the biggest ones. One Battle After Another has been a regular contender for top movie, and it has knocked it out of the park against elite competition routinely over the past year.

All roads lead to this movie being the rightful favorite to win at the 2026 Oscars, and the odds back that up.

It’s not just the regular critics at award shows, either. RottenTomatoes.com features consensus ratings, with the critics producing a 94% score and regular viewers generating an 85% rating.

Critics and moviegoers alike loved this movie, and it is pulling into the Oscars with positive online feedback and reasonable momentum after winning again at the Golden Globes.

Why It Might Not Win

If you’re looking for some key takeaways as far as going against the grain, keep in mind that a -300 price doesn’t mean a win is a lock. This is the obvious frontrunner, but we have seen Oscars upsets before, and more are sure to come.

More specifically, the fact that Sinners garnered 16 nominations and comes in with the second-best odds to win Best Picture is somewhat alarming. If there’s a red flag for this bet, that’s it.

The other thing is, this movie doesn’t fit the mold of your usual Oscar-winning movie. The occasional oddball does get the nod, but there’s no denying that not everyone agrees that One Battle After Another checks the usual boxes of a Best Picture winner.

Top Best Picture Contenders for 2026

• Sinners (+330)
• Hamnet (+1000)
• Marty Supreme (+2500)

If you’re looking for a realistic Best Picture upset this year, it almost definitely is coming from these three movies, with Sinners pulling in as the very best bet.

Here’s a quick-hitting breakdown for why each of these Best Picture nominees has a shot, and why they probably will fall short:

Sinners

Sinners has a firm public backing thanks to its commercial success, high ratings at movie critic sites, and the record 16 Oscar nominations it received.

Hamnet

Hamnet is a distant third, but it also pulled in a stellar 11 Oscar nods and is directed by an Academy Award-winning director in Chloe Zhao. In terms of pedigree and production, it’s certainly a viable value bet.

Marty Supreme

Lastly, Marty Supreme is a compelling underdog story and is a loose biopic, which are two things the academy eats up. On top of that, it was well-received by critics and stars Oscar posterboy Timothee Chalamet, while the film has also received numerous nominations.

Each of these Best Picture contenders has a mild case to dethrone One Battle After Another as the top favorite. However, they also all have glaring weaknesses by comparison.

If you’re hunting for a contender worth betting on, Sinners is the only true standout. Historically, movies that led the way with the most total nominations have a very good chance to win Best Picture, and the buzz surrounding this movie is deafening.

Oscar’s Longshots with Serious Legs

• Bugonia (+6600)
• Frankenstein (+6600)

If you want Best Picture longshots that actually have a (slim) chance of winning, I’d start with Bugonia or Frankenstein. Both of these movies were helmed by brilliant directors, featuring massive star power that delivered exceptional acting performances, and were also beautifully shot.

On top of that, they were both critically and commercially well-received. They both have the framework needed to make a strong push, but their Best Picture odds leave a lot to be desired, making them poor bets to actually win.

But Oscars upsets do happen, and sometimes (albeit very rarely) a movie can come out of nowhere to shock the world. Here’s a quick case for both of these movies winning Best Picture this year:

Bugonia

For starters, Bugonia is quite the trip. You should be expecting that if you’re familiar with rising academy darling Yorgos Lanthimos, who probably should have won an Oscar for best director by now.

If you’re unfamiliar, buckle up, as Lanthimos is the king of tension-building. There are certainly points in Bugonia that are unrealistic or even corny, but the vast majority of it plays like a ticking time bomb toward impending doom – but not the kind you hope passes in a hurry.

This high-concept tale of two men seemingly trying to save the world from alien control is equal parts twisted and deeply emotional. Lanthimos succeeds in telling a powerful story here while engaging the audience in an epic dialogue duel between Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons.

The odds are long, but the story is captivating, well-directed, and perfectly acted.

Frankenstein

The situation is similar for Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, which naturally fits like a glove into the Best Picture category. Del Toro himself broke the “horror can’t win” when The Shape of Water got him some Oscars hardware, and some would say he offers a more compelling narrative in this film.

Oscar Isaac and Jacob Elordi combine their efforts to carry a methodical and nuanced spin on the classic tale, one that is both brooding with darkness, but also secure in emotional depth.

The main knock on Frankenstein was that it lacked punch and was a bit slower-moving than some would have preferred. However, it is arguably the best rendition of the story in a live-action film to date, and there’s nothing bad to say about the acting performances, direction, or storytelling.

The bummer? If you weren’t floored by del Toro’s big heave, then you might come away thinking he dropped the ball. I’d disagree, but there is a very strong argument that it didn’t deliver in the face of some legit competition.

Ultimately, neither of these movies are great bets at this point. The 10 Best Picture nominees are locked in, and they have middle-of-the-road odds, at best.

Frankenstein definitely aligns more with what the academy looks for in an Oscar winner, but sometimes it takes something wacky to win the Oscars voters over. Bugonia was subjectively the more engaging and engrossing film (and the one I personally enjoyed more), but it admittedly doesn’t fit the type of movie that generally claims this award.

Looking back at the odds of Best Picture winners in the past, we haven’t seen a plus-money movie win since Parasite (+173) back in 2020. That’s only five years, of course, while Green Book (+210) was a surprise winner the year prior, and Moonlight (+430) blew everyone away back in 2017.

If you want something crazy like Bugonia or Frankenstein – assuming their prices stay where they are – you’ve got another thing coming. While worthy of consideration in my book (and certainly deserving Oscars nominees), their odds are a virtual death sentence.

Key Note: You can bet on slight underdogs like Sinners, but a Best Picture winner has never been beyond +1000. In fact, the biggest recorded underdog is still Braveheart (+600) from 1996.

A Best Picture upset could be in play, but it won’t be coming from Bugonia or Frankenstein, even though they are films you absolutely should watch.

How the Best Picture Odds Got Here: Dissecting Awards Season Market Movement

The path to winning Best Picture is always an interesting one. The process typically starts early in the summer, when Best Picture betting odds drop with sometimes 100 different candidates.

The early Best Picture favorite often doesn’t stand the test of time, but typically, your winner is at least somewhere within the movies with the top 20 odds. Naturally, betting on the Best Picture winner well ahead of time is preferred, but it’s tough to know which movies will generate the most buzz, and which ones will actually snag hardware at the big award shows.

In fact, this year’s Best Picture favorite was not among the top 10 movies in terms of odds initially. That has everything to do with it not officially being released to theaters until August, but it went on to gain major steam and eventually dominate from there.

Before that happened, however, films like Sentimental Value, Jay Kelly, Rental Family, Wicked For Good, and others cracked the top 10. Sentimental Value is still technically in play, but those other movies didn’t even get officially nominated.

Here’s what you need to keep in mind:

• Consider pouncing on early odds (lightly)
• Wait until after August for the second wave of bets
• Consider the final bet after the December 31st cut-off
• Note the award show’s success and online buzz

If you want maximum value, betting on who will win Best Picture when the odds first drop is suggested. The information is lean, and voters aren’t dead set on anything yet, though, so betting lightly is the way to go.

There is a second wave of films that tend to drop in July and August, which gives you a rough checkpoint to reassess the state of the race to win Best Picture. Some of the previous top contenders will stay strong, but you’ll notice others slowly begin to drop off.

Pay attention to smaller movie award shows and film festivals, and they can deliver nuggets of information, buzz, and actual winners that could contribute to your betting strategy.

Tip: Joker was never a big favorite to win until it started heating up after a win at the Venice Film Festival in 2019. It won the Golden Lion, however, and never looked back.

Huge and unexpected moments like that can flip the Best Picture race on its side. We saw something similar when One Battle After Another hit theaters in August, as it killed the hopes of several contenders and gave Sinners its first real, legitimate threat.

Naturally, tracking these big events are vital to your Best Picture betting success. Here are the big ones to note as the film award season heats up:

• Critics Choice Awards
• Screen Actors Guild Awards
• Golden Globes
• Producers Guild of America Awards

All of these can tip the hand of voters to a degree, but none of them have as high an alignment as the Producers Guild of America Awards.

Why? Because the voters are made up of like-minded producers who tend to align with what the academy likes. For the most part, the movie they back is the one that wins at the Oscars as well.

Don’t believe me? Their pick went on to win Best Picture in each of the last five years, and those picks have failed to align just 10 times since 1989.

There’s still time to process everything and finalize your bets, though, as the 2026 Producers Guild of America Awards don’t go down until February 28th.

Smart Best Picture Betting Angles

Now that you know who the top favorite to win Best Picture is, along with some viable contenders, here’s a quick checklist of Best Picture betting tips to keep in mind:

1. Note the PGA Award Winner – While not a foolproof strategy, these picks almost always align. The only issue? You have to wait very deep into the process, and it can hurt your chances of securing premium odds.
2. Place a Bet Early – Due to buzz and award show wins piecing together a fairly clear picture, it’s good to place eat Best Picture bets. Bet in waves, with your first bet when the original pricing drops, and then consider two more informed bets later in the year.
3. Track Nomination Breadth – Movies that pull a lot of nominations carry more weight, are seen more, and get more buzz. The more traction a film is gaining, the better its chances of striking gold at the Oscars.
4. Strong Narrative – A huge aspect to the voting process is narrative. Is there an iconic actor or director attached to a successful project? Perhaps the Academy can kill two birds with one stone by picking a worthy winner that also pays respect to a veteran talent.
5. Follow Buzz & News – Social media is rife with speculation and rumors, but online buzz can build out new narratives, prop up contenders, and give you clues as to which underdogs may have a fighting chance.

When placing early bets on who will win Best Picture, I’d juggle wagers that either make too much sense to ignore versus films you’re passionate about that return incredible value.

It’s much easier to get behind a movie you personally loved, especially if you also believe it has the legs to go the distance. The bigger the shot early on, the easier it is to hedge that original bet, too.

At the same time, particularly as the process advances month after month, do your best to remove personal bias as you work your way into a fresh bet. Try to establish legit contenders compared to weak challengers, and keep in mind what the Academy tends to prefer in Best Picture candidates.

Who Will Win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?

One Battle After Another (-300)

If I am not removing any personal bias, One Battle After Another is the easy pick. It was an extremely tense movie with superb acting and solid storytelling. It has also gained an insane amount of momentum over the last few months.

When looking at the movie itself, the director, the acting, and the content, it does check most of the boxes of an Oscar winner. It also is not that far behind Sinners with 13 nominations.

Even if I remove my own perception of the movie, it enters as the clear favorite according to prediction markets, it has positive momentum, and it has cleaned up on the awards circuit.

The only real challenge is Sinners. It’s a worthy foe, as it could stage the upset based off of cinematic aesthetics, storytelling, direction, and cultural impact. There is absolutely a world where it wins, and nobody should be mad about it.

But the best movie between these two is One Battle After Another. And despite there probably being a sizable gap, you’re getting it at a bit of a discount at its current -300 odds.

Why Small-Field DFS Contests Are Beating Large GPPs

If you’re not first, you’re last. Those are the famous and totally rational words of the iconic Ricky Bobby from Talladega Nights. The fact that I’m quoting Will Ferrell should probably tell you those might not be words to live by, though.

There’s no denying that nailing a “bink” or a “takedown” in daily fantasy sports is the dream. Everyone wants to win the NFL Milly Maker or finish first in some crazy tournament that nets them life-changing money.

The problem? It’s really hard to do. It’s also simply mathematically not very realistic. And the best daily fantasy sports (DFS) players have taken notice. You can still chase those extreme highs, but preventing the extreme lows and soaking up more sustainable wins has become a much more attractive endeavor – even if it works against the public norm.

With that, let’s dig deeper into why small-field DFS contests are winning the day, and why massive GPPs are increasingly left for the fish to fight over.

The DFS Myth That Refuses to Die

One of the biggest problems with daily fantasy sports is expectation and deliverability. New players, especially, can get drawn in by the obsession over huge wins.

In today’s social media-driven age, big wins and massive five-figure payouts are placed directly in front of you. Seasoned players still chasing that big win can get jealous and wonder when their time will come. New players will assume if they work hard enough and long enough, they’ll get that epic takedown, too.

Except it’s never a given, and the reality is that you really just see the high point. The crazy first-place finish and the big cash prize? That’s for everyone to see via screenshots on social media or in Discord communities.

Here are the two problems with this mentality:

• Struggles aren’t broadcast
• Sharp play vs. ROI

First, the road DFS players take to get to that elusive big score is often a long and winding one. If you put in enough time, research, and money, maybe – just maybe – your next big swing can net you a glorious win that you can share with the masses.

Truth be told, that could obviously happen. That reality is what makes DFS so great. But you only see the success, and unfortunately, you usually need to experience the brutal lows to fully understand them.

In addition, this chase for first place in a massive tournament – one where it’s your lineup against sometimes hundreds of thousands – skews how we look at lineup building from a strategic perspective.

To win in any tournament, you need to have a good lineup. You also need some leverage via low-owned or “contrarian” options. That combination won’t always lead to winning results, and nailing the perfect formula is different for each contest. The sheer idea of it can also be counterintuitive when trying to win.

Example: You need low-owned players that also go off and get you a lot of points. But to get those players, you’re rolling the dice on players who are usually overlooked by the field for a reason.

In other words, the very strategy that sharp players deploy could be precisely why your lineups are not contending – or worse, not even cashing.

Your plight to chase that big win is compounded by the very strategy required to land it; risky plays can lead to big swings in your favor, but more often than not they just lead you to a losing lineup a lot faster.

The Structural Problem with Large GPPs

Winning a big GPP (guaranteed prize pool) is extremely difficult. The number of lineups and different combinations you’re up against are massive. And even if you do piece together a lineup that’s close to contending, you still might run into trouble.

Here are two things that make big GPPs so difficult to master:

1. Payout curve
2. Lineup duplication

The first big issue is that most of the big GPP tournaments are insanely top-heavy as far as the payout is concerned. That’s how they can afford to issue crazy $100,000 or even $1,000,000 prizes to the first-place winner; less than the top 1% get the big money.

When looking at the low percentages and high lineup volume, you’re not just contending with the field – you’re literally working against every single lineup in the contest. This creates extra emphasis for both creating unique lineups that can separate from the pack and “maxing” a contest by hitting the entry limit.

Even those things aren’t always going to save you. If everyone can play 150 lineups, then all you’re doing is leveling the playing field against the other players that are max entering. You might feel like you’re gaining an edge, but in reality, you’re probably doing the bare minimum.

It gives you the maximum opportunities to try to give your unique grouping of lineups the best chance possible, but it, at the same time, guarantees nothing.

The other issue is lineup duping, which is certainly more prevalent from an exact definition perspective when dealing with Showdown slates, tiny two or three-game slates, or sports with finite player pools such as NASCAR and MMA.

In showdown contests and sports like NASCAR and MMA, true dupes (exact same lineups) are common and sometimes simply not very avoidable. In big GPPs for bigger sports like the NFL, MLB, and NBA, the “lineup duping” issue lies more within your build structure.

Most of the best plays for a given slate are ones that everyone knows about, and a good chunk of the field will simply “eat the chalk” and play them. That’s definitely something you’ll usually want to do, situation depending, but the more chalk you eat, the less unique your lineups will be.

This creates an obvious issue: for massive GPPs, you have to intentionally stray from some of the best plays on the slate just to ensure your lineup construction isn’t one that is being used in a majority of lineups across the entire contest.

Needless to say, the chase for perfection can still fall short. Even when a lineup is basically perfect, it may still fail to take down first place due to volume of lineups, payout curve, lineup duplication, or general variance not working in your favor.

Why Small-Field DFS Contests Change the Math

If you can ditch the dream of cashing in insane money (or embrace the reality of it not being very realistic) you can clean up in smaller DFS contests.

At least math suggests your odds are better. After all, when you’re looking at smaller GPPs or single-entry tournaments, you are inherently improving your odds due to a number of key factors:

• Flatter payouts that reward top 20% finishes
• Fewer entries/lineups to compete with
• Less of a need for high variance plays
• Skill carries more weight in your lineup’s result

Volume is everything. The more entries or lineups in a contest, the harder it is to get to the top of the pile, and the less money available to you if you can’t make it high enough.

By playing smaller contests, you cut down the upside of your winnings, but you increase the probability of actually scoring a takedown. Here’s a quick visual to compare a smaller contest to a massive contest at a DFS site like DraftKings:

These are just three examples, but they are very different contests. The first is the NFL Milly Maker, which pays out an insane $1 million to first place, but unless you finish among the top 12,907 lineups, you won’t even win $50.

For a fraction of the cost, you could opt to play a smaller contest of just under 6,000 entries with a five-lineup entry limit. This gives you five cracks at lineup variety, and you can still get a nice $1,500 score. Even if you fail to win first, everyone inside the top-13 wins at least $100, while you only need to finish inside the top-25 (not the top 12,000) to bring back $50.

It gets even better in a similar sized single entry. You pay $2 more for a chance at an even bigger first-place prize, and you’re going up against 5,945 individual people, rather than a lot of sharp players who are shoving out their five best lineups.

You can take this even further by upping the buy-in to a $27 SE where first place is $1,000 for a 431-person tournament. In this case, you are risking even more than you would in the Milly Maker contest, but instead of needing to beat out over 129,000 to win $1,000, you simply need to beat out 430.

Nothing is guaranteed, no matter which contest you enter, but the difference in competition and difficulty to get big wins is striking.

The fewer people and lineups you’re competing with, the better your odds are of actually winning a tournament. And even if you don’t get first place, you get a boost as far as cashing or doubling or tripling your entry fee.

Ownership Works For You in Small Field Tournaments

With so many DFS players fixated on upside, you can focus on your research and strategy while the ownership factor is less of a burden.

Don’t get me wrong, you can’t just blindly fire up pure chalk lineups where every player you roster is 50% owned. At some point, you do need to assume some risk, fade some chalk, and target lower-owned options that offer a comparable ceiling.

But those risks are just coming at a much lower volume, and they also look different. Instead of big swing-for-the-fences punts or plays that don’t really align with your strategy, your contrarian picks can be much more calculated, and you can also eat more of the chalk without over-thinking it.

Simply put, smaller DFS contests make the process about building the best lineup and making the best decisions; not creating the most unique lineup that has the ceiling to beat out thousands of entries.

This allows you to put greater emphasis on identifying “good chalk” versus “bad chalk”. You also can clearly identify and attack ownership gaps without taking on extreme leverage angles, and you can start your process with optimal builds more often.

At the end of the day, you still want to avoid duplication, and you want to maximize your ceiling. But with smaller DFS contests, you’re not going out of your way to risk sacrificing your lineup’s stability to do it.

Key strategy: Start with the notion of “playing the best lineup possible” and then make 1-3 minor tweaks to get you away from the same lineup structure half the field is starting with.

Just how much you deviate from that starting path depends on the contest size and how unique you feel your lineup needs to be. But your job is made easier knowing you don’t have to take unnecessary risks.

Lineup Construction Gets Simpler (And Sharper)

The beauty of playing in smaller DFS contests is that everything gets simplified. Instead of worrying so much about ownership, you start by simply answering the age-old question: What is the best lineup I can create?

In case you’re not used to finding a way to answer that question, make sure you’re incorporating the following into your process:

• Vegas odds
• Matchup stats
• Player roles + injury impact
• Lineup optimizer
• Player projections
• Player ownership

If you have a good lineup tool, most of this is actually baked into the projections. But doing some legwork on your own can help you uncover edges that the lineup optimizer might gloss over.

Either way, playing smaller contests allows you to focus on this type of stuff solely, and not worrying over fringe plays that otherwise shouldn’t be rostered normally.

Another thing to consider is the lack of necessity of stacking in most sports. The smaller the contest, the less important correlation and stacking become. This isn’t to say you should eradicate it entirely, but you can focus more on the top individual plays, and work in correlation as you see fit for leverage purposes.

Remember, you’re no longer building lineups with a 99th percentile outcome in mind. Instead, median projections regain value, chalky plays are good chalk if they are inherently good plays, and stacking/correlation can be a factor, but not a prerequisite to building winning lineups.

Bankroll Volatility: The Silent Killer

Another huge advantage of playing smaller contests? Your bankroll doesn’t consistently take a massive hit. This obviously can get even worse if you’re trying to max a lot of expensive GPPs, or, depending on what level of player you are, even entering the Milly Maker a handful of times.

With smaller contests, you can scale back the risk-taking both from a lineup creation perspective, but also from a budget point of view.

Consider the following:

• GPP winning is more volatile and streaky
• Large field contests promote longer losing streaks
• Lower variance can equate to less losing
• Strict unit spending can extend bankroll longevity

Some of this stuff goes without saying. If you play only big GPPs, you’ll see right away that scoring takedowns simply isn’t very easy. For most, it’s virtually impossible. You’ll carve through most of your bankroll pretty quickly, and before long you’ll be back to the deposit page.

The goal of every DFS player should always be to never deposit again.

You can be as strict or as lenient with that mantra as you’d like, but if you abide by that ideology, you’re going to hold yourself accountable. Doing this involves entering the right contests, tracking your wins and losses, and sticking to a strict budget.

Not doing this can lead you to wild swings, emotional play, a lot of re-depositing, and potentially even a final destination of problem gambling.

Who Small Field DFS Contests Are Actually For

Not sure if playing smaller DFS contests are for you? Think again.

Even if your top priority is getting big wins, you should consider the low probability of scoring a huge takedown. Alternatively, you should also realize the boost you give yourself to get more wins (albeit smaller) by competing against fewer lineups and turning back to strong lineup-building practices.

Here’s how to know if small DFS contests are for you:

If any or most of the above are boxes you find yourself checking, it might be a good idea to consider ditching the huge takedown dream.

The best part is you can still cash in via smaller DFS contests. Your odds of doing so are boosted by default, while you can stack big wins of hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars.

How much you win and how consistently will still require sound strategy, the right plays, and a little bit of luck. But straying from the high dollar and ultra-competitive contests is the first step.

How Sharp Players are Reallocating Their Entries

Life is all about balance. It’s the same when it comes to sports betting, and it definitely is the same for daily fantasy sports as well.

You can still have a piece of cake or eat a burger. Just eat some veggies and fruit and work out a bit. You can throw a huge parlay at the wall. Just stick to straight bets the rest of the time.

And you can still play the Milly Maker or other big contests. Just balance it out with a structured approach, whether that be small field DFS contests or cash games.

The top players in DFS are already doing this and have been for years. Here’s what they do:

• Migrate most of their action to small fields and cash games (60-80%)
• Target GPPs selectively for upside, but pick their spots
• Approach contest selection as a skill, not a necessity
• Look at DFS lineups as individual investments, not volume deployment

The point? You can shoot for the moon, just make sure you’re not using all (or even most) of your rockets to get there.

Keep things balanced, controlled, accounted for, and structured. If you can do that, you will improve your odds of winning sustainably.

Large Field vs. Small Field – What’s the Better Path in DFS?

The important thing to take away is that massive GPPs aren’t really for you. They actually exist to take advantage of you.

Think about it; the Milly Maker contest is 149,000 entries at $25. That’s $3,750 for one person to max it, and you can still fail to cash even a single lineup. For the entire contest, that’s $3,725,000, with the DFS site likely taking a 10-15% rake (up to $558,750).

Needless to say, simply by the masses participating, DFS sites are raking in the cash. You still get your shot at the ultimate reward, but the math ultimately isn’t math-ing.

Small DFS contests restrict your spending, allow you to build better lineups, and allow you to face less competition. They inherently put a greater emphasis on skill and research, rather than impulse, randomness, and volume.

Someone is going to win those big contests. But it takes an awful lot of luck, some craziness, and an insane amount of lineups, even for the chance to get there.

Ultimately, you can still play both. But for sustained winning, more frequent shots at big wins, and a stop to brutal losing streaks, smaller DFS contests are without a doubt the better path.

Live Betting Is Broken: Why In-Game Odds Get Worse as Data Gets Faster

Is live betting the greatest lie ever told to sports bettors? It certainly feels that way at times. Live sports betting was sold as an overall upgrade for gamblers; faster data equated to superior odds, while you’d be getting more chances (and more ways) to beat the book.

Unfortunately, the reality has been a bit different than expected. Odds update in real time, but they often move faster than bettors can react. And when there is an area you can exploit, bets are often frozen until the time to strike has passed.

The second a bet becomes crystal clear, the bet evaporates – or worse, the odds update and the price worsens to the point of lost value.

The brutal truth? Live betting is doing exactly what it was intended to. It’s enticing gamblers to bet more, to risk money spontaneously, to target moving bets that they otherwise would have scoffed at, and to do it in rapid-fire mode.

Live betting was created for the consumer – or at least that’s what we’ve been told. While it can still be exploited in doses, it’s a clever tool online sportsbooks have created to squeeze even more cash out of your pockets – and they’ve made you believe it’s a bonus feature for you to enjoy.

What Live Betting Was Supposed to Fix

The whole point of live betting apps was two-fold: to give bettors the ability to place bets in real time after an event has already started, and to replace stagnant, outdated lines with updated, current pricing.

The Original Promise

• More information + fairer pricing
• Bettors gain flexibility and reactability

That extra data was meant to spoon-feed bettors information they can use to their advantage and to also correct pricing issues. Instead of static lines that were impacted solely by public wagering and oddsmakers, the game itself and player performance could be used to give a more accurate representation of what you were betting on.

Along with that, gamblers gained flexibility and the ability to freely react to player injuries, breakout performances, momentum shifts, weather impact, and natural game flow.

Example: You bet on the Patriots to win before Drake Maye got injured. Your original bet might be cooked, but now you can bet live on his backup or pivot to hedge against the Patriots.

Why Bettors Bought It

The idea sounded good enough, and even now that we know of the pitfalls, most bettors will admit it’s still alluring. Here’s why:

1. It feels skill-based
2. Perceived element of control
3. It seems more predictive

Before a game starts, what transpires is literally anyone’s guess. That’s the beauty of sports. A team can be favored by 25 points and still lose. But that isn’t something even the sharpest of bettors will always see coming.

Live betting negates that risk of “not knowing”. It makes the game feel like it’s more about skill, that you’re in control, and that with the added help of real-time game flow, you can better predict – and better wager – on what is coming next.

Why Sportsbooks Sold It

Love them or hate them for it, but online sportsbooks are all about the bottom line. Betting sites aren’t sketchy for simply doing what they exist for: to make money.

Sportsbooks don’t mind bettors winning from time to time, but the house has to win in the end. And adding live betting as a feature does appease the masses in a lot of ways, but it also helps the sportsbooks maintain their overall edge.

Here’s how they got it:

• More bets placed
• Less research applied
• Less time to think
• More overall engagement
• Higher emotional impact

Live betting was a hidden goldmine for sportsbooks. If you weren’t already placing bets at a high volume, being able to bet on games in real time could inflate your betting load.

You’d also get less time and fewer resources to effectively research your wagers, while you’re also suddenly far more likely to do knee-jerk bets, try to recoup losses, or bet emotionally.

Why did sportsbooks want to incorporate live betting? The real questions are why wouldn’t they, and how didn’t they think of it sooner?

Faster Data Helps Models (Not Bettors)

There can still be a human element to the process in which sportsbooks set and update odds. But unlike most sports bettors, they also have a complicated system in place that relies more on models.

These models work off of automated feeds that constantly adjust pricing, with a major emphasis on math, analytics, and probability. A lack of human judgment takes opinion and emotion out of these decisions, while bettors are often doing just the opposite.

Why Bettors Are Always Late

Sportsbooks are always going to be one step ahead simply due to being the one to set the price. When relying on algorithms to make their calls, they know they hold the edge every step of the way – and they’re forcing your hand.

Here’s the main problem for sports bettors:

• Odds update too quickly
• Human vs. Machine
• General latency

Sportsbooks are processing information and setting or updating prices instantly, whereas humans are reacting to what is happening. That tiny sliver of a difference in time and execution gives books all the edge they need, while humans are going to also incorporate emotion, flawed logic, and bias in situations where models simply will not.

There’s also the issue of network latency and the time it takes to finalize a bet. Various factors, such as WiFi connection, timing of bet placement, and devices being used, can disrupt or alter how you’re betting.

Ever find the ideal live bet to target, but you can’t get to it in time? Or you’re building a live parlay, but the odds reset before you can click submit? These seemingly mild issues can interrupt your process, giving you an extra obstacle that sportsbooks don’t have to worry about.

Live Odds Are Defensive by Design

The sportsbooks always have the edge, and that’s even more so the case when you start betting live on sports. Here’s a breakdown to help illustrate how and why:

Put simply, pre-game odds are built to predict. Sportsbooks act like bona fide forecasters as odds open early, the books react to public betting, and the pricing adjusts over a period of time.

The overall goal is balance, accuracy, and sustained profit. Relying on a large collection of data and public influence, sportsbooks or their models can make informed decisions that give them a clear edge.

For live betting, sportsbooks change things up. It’s no longer about predicting, but more about defending. Pricing updates in seconds, not minutes or hours, setting up a situation where bettors are forced into quicker decisions.

Live models are no longer targeting precision. They simply contain risk, control overall exposure, and emphasize speed. Bets are created to incentivize wagering that is difficult to actually project accurately, while the book can also pause or pull bets the second they are no longer advantageous.

Live betting looks like an active, open market with unlimited possibilities. In reality, it is a reactive model that goats bettors into poorly informed betting and restricts them the second a bet might actually be in their favor.

The Hidden Cost: Exploding Juice

Another bummer that goes with live betting is the enhanced juice. The sportsbooks naturally are going to make you pay the price to bet live, as they’re giving you an added “feature.” You won’t balk at poor prices, either, because you’re happy to get the free “reward” of extra action even after a game starts.

There’s a pretty good reason for the downgrade in odds, too:

• Volatility: Outcomes can be tough to predict on the fly, and so can pricing. Books boost their prices to make up for massive shocks to the system.
• Tighter Windows: Books are working on the same timeline as you. Their inability to have time to set proper pricing means a downgrade in guaranteed margins.
• Less Competition: Since live betting is all about timing, books know you’re not shopping lines like you normally would. They can price bets however they want, since time is of the essence.

This leads to you paying more per wager in any given situation. You’re not even usually aware of it – nor do you really care – and the reality is you can always opt to just bypass these inflated odds. But the books know you won’t, as live betting still means added opportunity to obtain value, hedge, overcome losses, or add to profit.

But if we are paying attention, we’d notice wider spreads, heavier vig on game totals, and bets that contradict game flow or appear trappy.

In the end, live betting is all about volume. You get loads of new chances to gain the upper hand on the sportsbooks. However, that volume can be poorly priced, and that volume often has you buying more into poor numbers (and wagers).

Simply put: more bets don’t always mean more value.

Suspensions Create a Fake Sense of Control

One of the biggest scams with live betting is suspended betting markets. It isn’t a true “scam,” but the sportsbooks can completely manipulate what we bet on and when, and they can even change how we perceive this underrated betrayal.

When Markets Freeze:

• Big plays
• Turnovers
• Scoring opportunities
• Start of possession

These are all understandable areas for the market to freeze, to be clear. But the second you have your finger on the pulse of a game, you need to prepare to lose out on value.

Games can fluctuate in maddening fashion, and when teams turn the ball over, make a big play, get into scoring position, or start a new possession, just be prepared to miss out on the bets you covet.

What Bettors See:

• Odds refreshing
• Bets are locked

On one hand, you’re witnessing the book being on top of the pricing. Getting updated odds is a good thing, after all. On the other hand, the wagers you want to target are paused or taken away completely, eliminating precious value, should it have existed in the first place.

The second part can be extremely manipulative, as books freezing a bet creates the false sense of security of that being a market you now need to attack. The sportsbooks aren’t just freezing bets so you can’t take advantage, they’re freezing bets to incentivize hopping on them once they’re back or unpaused.

While this is happening – and you’re waiting to place an ill-informed bet – the sportsbooks are calibrating risk, resetting their models, checking exposure, and setting you up for more failure.

The unfortunate takeaway? Paused bets are a major advantage to the book, and can equate to a massive trap for bettors waiting to pounce.

Live Betting Replaces Skill with Reaction

When betting traditionally, you have all the time in the world to make an informed bet. You have your own personal research, you get pricing from competitors, you get public betting information, and you can factor any number of variables into how you bet.

Live betting eliminates almost all of that, taking any skill or advanced edge you had and replacing it with a mental reflex. Here’s a quick breakdown of what is actually happening:

This can send you down the dangerous path of chasing losses or even being over-confident with your betting. Both can be bad, and are already threats to your betting experience even with standard wagering.

Live betting simply compounds all of these instances and magnifies these feelings, and can influence your bet volume and failure on the fly.

When Live Betting Can Work

There are definitely pitfalls with live betting, but the books don’t win all of their bets in any situation, and that’s certainly true with betting live on sports.

Here are a few areas where you can obtain a real edge:

• Pricing overreactions
• Injury news
• Weather impact
• Game flow

The books are very good with their pricing, but sometimes they can overreact. They can do it with actual pricing, as well as specific wagers offered. Spotting it and pouncing on it at the right time can give you an edge.

Injury news will eventually impact betting models, but it doesn’t always happen immediately, it isn’t always fully accurate, and it won’t always account for all variables.

Example: An NFL team loses their starting quarterback. The updated odds will likely have that team being the underdog in their game. However, the spread may be over-inflated or that team’s players may have soft receiving yardage prop bets. In a game where they are now expected to trail, it’s likely they will throw the ball more than usual, obtaining a clear path to Overs.

There’s also the impact of the weather. Sportsbooks usually have this baked into pricing before a game, but accounting for in-game issues like rain, snow, wind, and delays caused by lightning isn’t always a given.

Game flow is also a huge factor in how bets and odds are updated live. Books are typically very good about this – and will simply pause bets if they don’t have an edge – but you can also often see game flow sliding a certain way well before a game gets out of hand.

Prop tip: The second an NFL team takes a two-score lead, consider the opposing team’s spread pricing and value. In addition, consider targeting the losing team’s passing game props, as they will be trailing and may have to pass more the rest of the game.

In general, it pays to have some type of plan in place. Treating live betting like a job and reserving time to research as much as possible (or consider all factors beforehand) – rather than firing off bets on a whim from your phone – can give you an edge before the script is flipped.

Reacting to potential game flow adjustments, in-game injury, or weather changes can also give you an edge that the books may not be able to account for – at least not instantly.

If you want to have an edge when doing live betting, you need to have a plan. What that exact plan looks like is up to you, but it has to include more than targeting random bets that the sportsbook pitches as advantageous opportunities when they’re really nothing more than traps.

How Smart Bettors Use Live Markets

There are certainly a lot of negatives when it comes to live betting, but there are still ways you can make money off of it. Sharp bettors know when to pick their spots, what to look for, and that being selective in general is the foundation of a winning sports betting strategy.

The core of live betting – at least for the books – is built on impulsive wagering. You’re supposed to bet on anything and everything, chase losses, and take bets that are either not backed by data and research, or are bets you flat out wouldn’t normally go after.

To prevent that, consider what sharps would do:

• Use live betting as a pre-game bet confirmation
• Leverage line movement only when it impacts your edge
• Avoid betting after highlight plays
• Avoid chasing momentum
• Avoid emotional betting
• Target 2nd half lines
• Target derivative pre-game bets
• Wait for truly advantageous markets

It isn’t always going to align, but the more you can marry your pre-game research with live bets, the better off you’ll be. You can also exploit line movement, whether it moves closer to your pre-game expectations or drastically further away.

In addition, it’s important to eliminate emotional or spontaneous betting. Most professional or sharp bettors do this already, but it’s admittedly hard to keep a clean betting profile if you are on a mobile device and want to react to what appear to be exploitable prices.

Ideally, you’re not overreacting to any one play, you’re not blindly chasing momentum swings, and you’re avoiding emotional betting altogether.

You can still target live bets, but one good suggestion is to take some time to research 2nd half markets. This gives you more time and data to work with, but you’re still able to take advantage of new pricing.

On top of that, you can exploit derivatives before the game, or just sit back and wait for truly advantageous bets to emerge. Perhaps that’s just playing it cool until a bet pops up that you can’t ignore, or maybe it just means starting your betting process early for the next day’s slate.

Why Live Betting Will Only Get Worse

As bad as this portrait of live betting is, it actually might only get worse over time. The big issue is nobody seems to realize the current state of live betting, or even scarier, is the fact that nobody seems to really care.

Here’s why things may start getting out of control:

• No incentive: Sportsbooks have no reason to improve pricing or tilt live betting in your favor. The margins and volume are high, the turnover is instantaneous, and they don’t have to try hard to increase action. As long as people keep betting, they’ll continue to get an insane edge on a built-in “feature”.
• Technology: The evolution of technology can’t stop, won’t stop, baby. When you start thinking about how models have gotten to the point where they are now – plus the long-term incorporation of AI – it’s only going to get harder to beat the books. Faster and more accurate models = more volume and more losing for casual bettors.

Has live betting already arrived at its long-term destination of being seen as entertainment over strategy? If that isn’t the case yet, we are undoubtedly trending in that direction. Once there, people will gladly trade volume and entertainment for losing a few extra bucks. If they simply get the illusion of a chance at a big win, they’ll keep on betting.

That doesn’t sound terrible, but that volume adds up in a hurry. And if bettors can’t identify what’s going on and find a way to adapt, the books have no reason to slow things down.

Live Betting Isn’t Broken; It’s Working Exactly as Intended

The important thing to remember is that live betting isn’t (or at least doesn’t have to be) a bad thing. Like anything within the sports betting world, however, it exists to feed sportsbooks an edge and ultimately, more profit.

Sportsbooks are not here to lose money, so if they are pushing out live bets, their models are telling them that overall, they’re going to win most of them. They are also catering to casual and/or lazy bettors that either treat sports betting as entertainment or won’t put in the effort to turn it into anything more than that.

In short, live betting is not broken. This is exactly what it always sought out to do; to offer gobs of volume, to incentivize poor betting, and to take advantage of bettor impulse.

How do you combat that? Be selective. Do your research. And slow down.

Live betting only really works for the books if we get sucked into the volume and fake value. The books are going to keep winning, and the edge over the masses isn’t going anywhere. But you – the individual – can curb your losses by being more disciplined.

None of this is to say live betting is bad or that you shouldn’t bet live on sports. But this should relay a clear message: live betting isn’t actually for you. It’s for the sportsbooks. Use it when you can flip the script and can target real value. Leave all the clutter for the fish.

2026 NFL Draft Odds: 1st Overall Pick Favorite, Best Bets, and Predictions

With the NFL season winding down, all eyes will be on the 2026 NFL Draft soon enough. The top of the NFL Draft usually generates the most chatter, and right now, the Las Vegas Raiders are on the clock with Indiana Hoosiers star quarterback Fernando Mendoza looking like the obvious choice.

Mendoza comes in with staggering odds to be the first overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft, but there are some questions as to whether he’s worth that price or if there are some viable pivots the Raiders should consider.

There isn’t much money to be made by betting on Mendoza to be the top pick in the draft, either, as DraftKings has his price set at a mind-boggling -8000. So, what are bettors to do? Should they find a way to bet on Mendoza, target a different pick, or avoid the wager entirely?

Let’s go over the latest NFL Draft odds for the #1 pick and highlight the top bets while coming to a final prediction.

Latest 2026 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds

These are the current odds for the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft at DraftKings. Odds are subject to change based on player health, team transactions, and other variables, but the one thing that seems written in pen is Mendoza as the top favorite.

Mendoza’s #1 pick odds are obscene. However, he won the Heisman Trophy and led the Indiana Hoosiers to the college football title game, so he stands out as the clear pick. In addition, the Las Vegas Raiders own the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and per usual, they are in need of an upgrade under center.

It’s likely that we can stop the conversation here. On one hand, you’re not betting anything on Mendoza at this absurd -8000 price tag. On the other hand, nothing is for sure until the pick is in.

By default, every other option stands out as a pretty alluring value. If the Raiders aren’t high on Mendoza, find a quarterback via a different path, or trade out of the top spot, it’s not crazy to imagine someone else being picked first this year.

To assess the best bets to be drafted first overall, let’s break this market down a bit further.

Why Is Fernando Mendoza the Favorite to Go #1 Overall?

The first step is accepting our fate here. With -8000 odds to be the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, it’d take some special circumstances to derail this train. Fernando Mendoza is almost definitely hearing his name called before anyone else on draft night.

Why? I also illustrated that he won the Heisman and led his team to the CFB championship game, but apart from that, he fills a clear need for a struggling Raiders franchise and is a rock-solid prospect.

That’s a lot of check marks, but ones you’d expect to get out of someone favored to go first overall in the NFL Draft. This would give Las Vegas the most well-rounded quarterback they’ve had in decades, as Mendoza lacks flash and high-level athletic traits, but otherwise passes the eye test for every other major attribute that goes into stellar quarterback play.

With Tom Brady being part of the Las Vegas ownership group that is making this tough call, it seems even more likely that a leader and winner like Mendoza would be precisely what a dormant offense needs to take their game to the next level.

Why Mendoza May Not Be the Right Pick

There’s the other side to this conversation, of course, and why we’re talking about a betting market that seemingly is already decided.

Mendoza fills a need and is a quality prospect, but he does not dazzle like someone going first overall “should”. If the Raiders want a winner and strong leader, he’s a no-brainer. But if they want someone who can wreck games, sell tickets, and be a total mismatch for defenses, they may pause before making the call.

Here’s why Fernando Mendoza going first in the 2026 NFL Draft wouldn’t be a given:

• Less than elite athletic traits
• Other viable candidates
• Raiders are far from contending
• One-year wonder?

Mendoza does all of the little things right, but he is an uninspiring prospect when it comes to arm strength and mobility. He’s “fine” in both regards – and everyone knows big arms and flashy runners don’t always translate – but he lacks game-changing ability beyond his edge between the ears.

In addition, if the Raiders aren’t in love with Mendoza, it isn’t out of the question that they could be high on another passer or a different position altogether.

Las Vegas is also at the bottom of the league for a reason. They don’t have a long-term head coach in place, and they lack talent on both sides of the ball. They could be drafting a quarterback into a situation that is impossible to succeed in.

Lastly, Mendoza really only has played at this level for one season. His numbers at Indiana are amazing and he clearly knows how to win, but he was relatively average at California before transferring to play with the Hoosiers.

What if the Raiders are investing in a middling prospect with a grossly inflated draft profile? Needless to say, these red flags could individually be problematic, or the combination of them all could spell disaster.

What do the Las Vegas Raiders Need Most?

Before deciding whether or not Fernando Mendoza will go first overall, you should consider what the Raiders are lacking. There’s no denying they don’t have a long-term solution at the quarterback position, but could there be another position they prefer targeting at #1 overall?

Las Vegas is a team that won just three games last year, so they definitely have more holes than just quarterback. Based off of their 2025 campaign and who they stand to lose this off-season, here’s a look at the biggest needs:

• Quarterback
• Offensive line
• Pass rush

Quarterback is the biggest need for the Raiders. Typically, that’s the case anytime you win three games and “earn” the top pick in the draft. Geno Smith is still under contract, but he’s someone the Raiders should look to move on from.

The question here isn’t need, but fit and timing. Is Mendoza the guy the Raiders fully believe in, or are they just drafting him due to need and the fact that they own the 1st overall pick?

The other issue is that this team isn’t just a quarterback away from competing. They ranked dead last in pass protection last year, so the offensive line needs an overhaul.

You need to beef up the trenches on both sides of the ball to win, and star pass rusher Maxx Crosby is a candidate to try to find a way out of town. If that is the case – and perhaps even if he stays – the Raiders eventually need to address a suspect pass rush that had just a 6.6% sack rate (19th).

Top Contenders to Go 1st in the 2026 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks: Fernando Mendoza & Trinidad Chambliss
• Edge: Arvell Reese & David Bailey
• O-line: Francis Mauigoa

If Las Vegas stays at #1, these are the most likely options they will be picking from. Mendoza is the consensus top pick, and that argument is made less intense with Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore opting to return to school for next year.

Mendoza has the leg up in terms of odds, but also mental makeup, pure passing ability, and stability. Chambliss did dominate in his first season as the Ole Miss Rebels starting quarterback, putting up 30 total touchdowns while leading one of the nation’s best offenses deep into the College Football Playoff tournament.

Chambliss is a little more exciting in terms of rushing ability and upside. He doesn’t have the steady hand that Mendoza does, but if the Raiders opt for ceiling, they could shock the world and pivot to the Ole Miss product.

A likelier scenario – if the Raiders actually passed on Mendoza – is they choose to rebuild their offensive line. That’d get them ready for when they truly felt prepared to invest heavily into a franchise passer, and right now, the most logical option is stud Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa.

The third option is Las Vegas re-tooling their pass rush. Maybe they hang onto Crosby, but either way, this draft has several edge rushers that could team up with him or simply replace him. The likes of Arvell Reese and David Bailey grade out as the best bets if Las Vegas went this route.

Ultimately, the two most likely contenders not named Mendoza appear to be Chambliss and Mauigoa, but with +3000 and +15000 odds, respectively, they are longshot bets at best.

Could the Raiders Trade Down from the #1 Pick?

This is the most likely scenario that would lead to the Raiders not selecting Fernando Mendoza first overall. Las Vegas would be making a mistake to simply select a different player when considering value, so they probably need to just take Mendoza or trade the pick.

The following teams are legit trade candidates:

• New York Jets
• Arizona Cardinals
• Cleveland Browns
• Miami Dolphins
• Pittsburgh Steelers

When you don’t have a signal caller, you do what has to be done to get one. In this case, we’re considering the hypothetical situation where Las Vegas isn’t smitten by Mendoza and dangles him in trade talks.

Las Vegas has a lot of holes, but they could consider a big package that would set them up for success down the road. Additionally, tanking for Arch Manning or another prospect next year or the year after isn’t out of the question.

New York is probably the most compelling team here, as they lack a foundational piece under center and have two first-round picks to work with this year.

Arizona, Cleveland, Miami, and Pittsburgh are all quarterback-needy teams that have first-round picks they can offer in potential trade packages if Las Vegas is serious about trading down.

Best Bets for the #1 Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft

• Fernando Mendoza -8000
• Trinidad Chambliss +3000
• Francis Mauigoa +15000

If you’re betting on who will go first in the 2026 NFL Draft, every part of this conversation has to start with Mendoza. He’s unlikely to be passed over by anyone else, and I doubt the Raiders end up moving this pick.

That said, if Mendoza is not going to be the pick, the two options that make the most sense are either a pivot to a more dynamic passer in Chambliss, or o-line help via Mauigoa.

If I had to bet against Mendoza, picking the Raiders to shock everyone with Chambliss would be the way to go.

Ultimately, though, your best 2026 NFL Draft picks are probably coming elsewhere via different props.

Final 2026 NFL Draft Prediction for the #1 Pick

Fernando Mendoza does not have a huge arm or freakish athletic traits, but he’s without a doubt the most complete quarterback in this draft class.

The Hoosiers’ star checks every single box you look for in a signal caller, profiling like a Tom Brady or Joe Burrow-esque prospect. That can be scary for a team picking at 1st overall, as this is a huge investment for a player who lacks flash. There will be understandable questions as to whether or not this type of player will successfully transition to the NFL, or if their skill-set can actually elevate a weak roster.

The answer to that might be no – at least at first – but drafting Mendoza is still the right call. He is a cerebral player who makes the right decisions, leads his team by example, and executes at a high level. Las Vegas hasn’t had anyone that can do that consistently for their passing game in years, so this is a risk they simply need to take.

That should result in a quality pick for them, but it doesn’t equate to elite betting value for you. You can’t hop on Mendoza at -8000, and even adding him to an NFL Draft parlay won’t make much sense.

If nothing else, however, this should cut off any risky interest in betting on the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and you can start focusing your efforts on who will go 2nd overall this year, among other NFL Draft prop bets.