How Starting Pitchers Move MLB Betting Lines

Ever wonder why an MLB game you’re looking to bet on suddenly jumped in pricing? A number of factors can contribute to changing MLB odds, but perhaps the biggest reason for line movement is who is on the mound.

That’s right, the starting pitcher can change everything. Whether it’s a starter being pulled, or a probable pitcher status going from “TBD” to an official name, the guy hurling the ball controls how we view MLB games, as well as how they’re priced.

Whoever toes the rubber sets up the entire matchup, and depending on how good they are, they can play a hand in the opposing team’s strategy – as well as all of the pricing for a given game.

The best part? Once you begin to understand how MLB betting sites price them you can consistently get ahead of line movement instead of merely reacting to it.

Why Starting Pitchers Are the #1 Driver of MLB Odds

Baseball is pretty unique compared to most other sports, as one guy can completely swing the outcome of a team game. You still get this in some regard with important positions in sports like hockey or football, while individual sports (tennis and golf) obviously can be impacted.

But as far as team sports go, nobody can dictate pricing or impact the outcome quite like a starting pitcher.

Just look at what MLB pitchers dictate:

• Every pitch
• Every at-bat outcome
• The pace and flow of the game
• How long the bullpen stays out of the game
• Batters being utilized in lineups

Naturally, that level of control and impact means online sportsbooks are forced to predicate their pricing on who the starting pitcher is.

Ever wonder why DraftKings and other big betting sites list the probable starting pitcher with the team odds? That’s why!

A dominant ace is typically a very good bet to stay in front of even the best of offense, while a middling arm could get chewed up and spit out in less than one full inning.

Suffice to say, if you’re not on top of your game in terms of knowing the ins and outs of every top arm in baseball, you’re doing yourself a great disservice.

How Sportsbooks Set MLB Lines Using Starting Pitchers

Let’s be clear: the starting MLB pitcher only plays a part in how odds are set. But it’s a substantial decision-maker for sportsbooks, seeing as that one guy has a hand in so much that can go right – or wrong.

Before you can prepare for pricing based on this idea, it’s helpful to understand how and why the books get to their decision.

The Opening Line Begins with the Pricing Matchup

The oddsmakers start things off with a baseline projection that considers both starting pitchers, the projected innings for both arms, and the expected runs allowed for each side.

Everything else comes after that is established. There is a lot more to be included and considered, but the basic framework starts the same for every matchup.

Advanced Metrics Matter More Than You Think

The top sportsbooks in the world don’t rely on surface data to maintain their edge. Sharp bettors don’t, either. If you’re still just looking at game logs or ranking pitchers on wins and losses, for instance, you may want to rethink your strategy.

Moreover, it’s important to dig deeper and find data that really explains why a pitcher is performing above or below expectations. And then there’s data going into each specific matchup, whether it be tied just to the pitcher or the opposition.

Here’s the stuff online bookmakers look at (that you should be analyzing, too):

Surely there are even more advanced baseball betting metrics to dive into, but the point isn’t to give you a laundry list of research areas. It’s to show you that sportsbooks aren’t judging pitchers based on whether they have a good record or posted a good ERA.

Why? Because those stats are noisy and lack context.

The edge, whether it be for the bookmaker or you, lies in uncovering the true data that explains and even predicts pitcher performance.

How Much Can a Starting Pitcher Move MLB Lines?

Almost as important as establishing that MLB pitchers can dictate pricing – and that they are also responsible for having odds altered – is realizing just how much this matters.

The movement isn’t always massive, as certain situations should be handled differently. But you can approach it with this loose framework in mind:

The first two instances can see a -110 favorite move to -105 or -115, depending on what’s happening and who is involved. Bigger situations create more chaos, however, with lines flipping completely, turning a -110 favorite into a +110 dog.

There’s simply nothing else in baseball that can fluctuate the market like that, and in turn completely change the way the public wants to bet.

What Happens When a Starting Pitcher Changes?

Things tend to really get interesting when a starting pitcher is pulled or officially announced for the first time. For either situation, the actual approach by the sportsbooks tends to be similar, and there’s an edge you can tap into.

Here’s what happens when a pitcher is scratched:

• The book pulls the line instantly
• The matchup is reassessed
• A brand new price is posted

Ever wonder why “listed pitcher” bets are posted? Because this type of thing happens all the time. Injuries pop up, players get sick – the list goes on. But sometimes the guy we thought was going to start doesn’t, and we understandably want some protection from that burning us.

The good thing is we can react to that change and use it to our advantage, just the same. If you can target listed pitcher bets, definitely try to do that where and when you’re able. But if you can’t, you can simply hop on fresh lines if you already know the pitchers and matchup at hand.

How Pitchers Impact Each Betting Market

Who the starting pitcher is for a game doesn’t just impact the winner. It impacts the game total, the run line, and various prop bets.

Win probability is the thing this change tends to impact the most, but there are several bets you’ll want to jump on if you feel the change is advantageous.

• Moneyline – This is where starting pitchers matter the most. Their talent level, how deep they can go into the game, and how they fare in a given matchup can have major influence on the winner of a given contest.
• Run Line – Good pitchers can positively influence blowout risk and can play a hand in limiting runs late, assuming they can pitch deep into a game.
• Total – Good pitchers will typically limit opposing scoring and help lower the total. Bad pitchers will get targeted early and chased from the game, which can lead to even more runs if a team’s bullpen is weak.
• Props – When a good pitcher is on the mound, the opposing bats are poor bets to hit Overs, and vice versa. Pitcher data can mesh with splits, weather, and park factors to clue bettors into probability for home runs, strikeouts, and other MLB prop bets.

Real Examples of Pitcher-Driven Line Movement

Most of this should make sense, but sometimes it helps to have a clear example of a real-world situation. Want to know exactly what types of situations to be aware of and how you should react? Consider the following:

How Sharp Bettors Exploit Pitcher-Based Line Movement

Okay, now that we know how and why lines can move based on who is pitching, let’s look at some ways you – the bettor – can actually use this exact situation to your advantage.

It won’t always be the same type of pitcher, and circumstances can be different depending on so many factors, so here are a few things to keep in mind:

• Bet early before lines adjust – If you know the probable pitchers before the books can adjust, you can obtain soft numbers early.
• Fade mispriced pitchers – Eye pitchers with ERA that outperforms xERA, note unsustainable strand rates, and consider strikeout rates, barrel rates, WHIP, and more to discover pitchers (and teams) that aren’t properly priced.
• Attack first 5 innings bets – Isolate the starting pitcher alone to really maximize the data invested into your approach. Don’t let a bad bullpen or weak offense ruin your hard work.

Common Mistakes Bettors Make with Pitchers

Sometimes it’s not enough to know a lot about a specific strategy or to do all the research you can stomach. Often, it’s just knowing what to avoid doing.

Here’s a quick look at some key mistakes and traps when considering the impact of starting pitching:

You can apply some of this to all sports betting genres. Even the best of sports bettors can fall into traps like narratives (he’s due, I tell ya!), whole noisy stats like wins, ERA, and batter vs. pitcher history can be frustrating because they tell us something, but they don’t tell us everything.

The biggest problem with most of the above traps and mistakes is time and effort. If you actually make the time to research the players, the data, and the situations they’re finding themselves in, you will organically dig deeper than surface-level data.

If the numbers feel too easy or the solution seems too obvious, they probably are. Make sure you never rely on any singular metric to formulate a stance or bet, either. Combine all of the meaningful data you can to come to the best decision – and best bet – you can possibly make.

Remember, Pitchers Are the Market in MLB Betting

That’s a lot to digest, but it’s important to remember that realizing how big of an impact starting pitchers have on baseball odds is only the beginning.

From here, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the hard-hitting data that actually matters. Then apply that to every single matchup you plan on betting on. And within that framework, you can start identifying truly advantageous bets that are actually worth targeting.

When it comes to sports betting, it can be more than just entertainment. You have to treat it as such first, however. That involves truly caring about the money you’re risking, what goes into the odds you’re wagering on, and where the best path is to an edge.

Starting pitchers don’t just influence MLB betting lines. They define them, and everything else tends to come after. The sooner bettors can see that and tap into the upside baked into the process, the more they can profit from those last-second changes.

The Near-Miss Is Not an Accident: How Slot Machines Are Engineered to Feel Like Almost-Wins

If you have ever played a slot machine, you know the feeling. The first reel lands on the jackpot symbol. The second reel lands on the jackpot symbol. Your heart rate spikes as the third reel spins, only for it to stop exactly one click past the final jackpot symbol. You didn’t win, but it felt like you were incredibly close.

That “so close” feeling is not a coincidence, and it is not a sign that the machine is about to pay out. It is a highly engineered psychological trigger known as the near-miss effect. Modern slot machines are deliberately programmed to show you these near-misses far more often than they would occur by pure chance.

The goal is simple: to make losing feel just enough like winning to keep you spinning. By understanding how the math and the psychology behind these machines work, you can recognize the manipulation and make smarter decisions about your bankroll.

What Is the Near-Miss Effect?

The near-miss effect is a psychological phenomenon where a failure that closely resembles a success triggers the same brain reward pathways as an actual win. When you experience a near-miss on a slot machine, your brain releases dopamine, creating a rush of excitement despite the fact that you just lost money.

A landmark 2009 study published in the journal Neuron by Dr. Luke Clark mapped exactly what happens in the brain during these events. The researchers found that near-misses recruited the striatum and insula—the exact same brain regions activated by actual monetary wins. The study also revealed that near-misses increased a player’s desire to continue gambling, even though the players consciously rated the near-misses as highly unpleasant.

For the casino, this is the holy grail of game design. They get to deliver the neurological reward of a jackpot without actually having to pay you a dime. According to behavioral research, optimal gambling persistence occurs when a machine delivers near-misses on roughly 30% of all spins.

How Casinos Engineer the Almost-Win

To understand how casinos manufacture these near-misses, you have to understand that modern slot machines do not operate like the mechanical games of the past. Today, the physical spinning reels (or the digital animations of them) are completely disconnected from the actual outcome of the game.

Every modern slot machine runs on a pseudo-random number generator (RNG). This software cycles through billions of numbers every second. The exact millisecond you press the spin button, the RNG locks in a number that determines whether you win or lose. The spinning reels you see are just a theatrical presentation of that already-decided outcome.

This separation between the math and the display allows game developers to use a technique called “virtual reel mapping.” On a physical or animated reel, there might be 22 visible stops. But in the machine’s programming, the virtual reel might have hundreds of stops. Developers map multiple virtual stops to the blank spaces immediately above or below the jackpot symbol.

This technique, sometimes referred to as clustering or using a high award symbol ratio, guarantees that the jackpot symbol will frequently land just out of reach on the payline. The machine isn’t almost hitting the jackpot; it is mathematically programmed to show you a near-miss.

The Legal Loophole in Slot Design

You might be wondering how it is legal for a machine to misrepresent the true odds of the symbols landing on the screen. The answer lies in how gaming regulators define fairness and randomness.

In major jurisdictions like Nevada, gaming regulations require that the outcome of a spin be determined entirely by the RNG. The machine cannot decide you are going to lose and then run a secondary program to intentionally generate a near-miss. However, because the virtual reel mapping is baked into the primary math model of the game, it is entirely legal.

The RNG randomly selects a number, and that number corresponds to a specific stop on the virtual reel. Because the virtual reel is heavily weighted with stops right next to the jackpot symbol, the “random” result will naturally produce a disproportionate number of near-misses. Some jurisdictions, like Ontario, have no specific regulations against these asymmetric or “starved” reels, giving manufacturers broad leeway to engineer the player experience.

Why This Matters for Your Bankroll

Understanding the near-miss effect is one of the most powerful tools you can have when playing slots. The flashing lights and near-jackpots are designed to bypass your logical brain and tap directly into your reward circuitry.

When you see two jackpot symbols and a blank, remind yourself that the machine did not “almost” pay out. Every spin is an independent event, and a near-miss is mathematically identical to a complete miss. It does not mean the machine is “hot” or that a win is coming soon.

By recognizing the near-miss for what it is—a programmed illusion—you can maintain better control over your play. Set strict limits on your time and budget, and never chase a jackpot just because it looked like it was one inch away.

Frequently Asked Questions

Here are the most common questions players have about the near-miss effect and slot machine programming.

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Stablecoin vs. Credit Card: Why Smart Bettors Stopped Using Fiat in 2026

If you used a credit card to fund your sports betting or casino account this year, you likely paid for the privilege. You may have also had your transaction declined, or waited days to see your winnings hit your bank account.

This friction is exactly why the crypto gambling market exploded to $81 billion in 2025. But this growth wasn’t driven by Bitcoin speculators hoping to double their money before kickoff. It was driven by bettors switching to stablecoins like USDT and USDC simply because they work better than fiat.

The shift from credit cards to stablecoins is no longer a fringe movement. It is a fundamental change in how players manage their gambling bankrolls.

The Hidden Costs of Credit Card Betting

The traditional banking system was not built for modern online gambling. When you deposit $100 into a sportsbook using a Visa or Mastercard, the bank does not treat it like a regular purchase at a grocery store.

Instead, major issuers like Chase, Discover, and American Express explicitly classify online gambling transactions as cash advances. This triggers immediate financial penalties. According to a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau report, the standard cash advance fee is the greater of $10 or 5%.

This means a casual $20 deposit incurs a $10 fee — an immediate 50% loss on your bankroll before you even place a bet. Furthermore, these transactions begin accruing interest at rates often exceeding 30% from day one, with no grace period.

Beyond the fees, reliability is a major issue. Banks frequently block gambling transactions entirely. A bettor trying to lock in a live line might find their deposit declined simply because their bank’s fraud algorithm flagged the transaction — a problem that does not exist with stablecoins.

Why Stablecoins Solved the Fiat Problem

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged directly to the US Dollar. One USDT or USDC is always worth exactly one dollar. They offer the speed and borderless nature of crypto without the terrifying price volatility of Bitcoin or Ethereum.

For bettors, stablecoins eliminate the three biggest pain points of traditional fiat gambling. First, there are no cash advance fees. When you transfer USDC from a wallet to a betting platform, there is no bank sitting in the middle to reclassify the transaction. You pay a negligible network fee — often pennies on networks like Solana or Polygon — and 100% of your deposit hits your account.

Second, withdrawals are near-instant. Traditional credit card or bank transfer withdrawals can take anywhere from 24 hours to five business days to clear. When you win using stablecoins, the funds typically appear in your digital wallet within five to ten minutes of requesting the payout. If you want to understand all your online gambling banking options, the differences in speed and cost are stark.

Third, there are no bank declines. Stablecoin transactions operate on decentralized networks. There is no bank fraud department to arbitrarily block your deposit right before a major game.

The Data Behind the Shift

The numbers show that bettors have already figured this out. According to research from StablecoinInsider, digital currency bets totaled $26 billion in Q1 2025 alone — nearly double the prior year’s figures.

Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) now account for 93% of the total stablecoin market capitalization. Because their value does not fluctuate, bettors can hold their bankrolls in these digital dollars without worrying that a market crash will wipe out their funds overnight.

The CFPB has noted that one-in-four sports bettors still prefer using credit cards to fund wagers. However, as awareness of cash advance fees grows and more platforms optimize for crypto deposits, that number is expected to drop sharply through 2026.

How to Make the Switch

Transitioning from fiat to stablecoins requires a slight learning curve, but the long-term savings are substantial. The process involves setting up a digital wallet, purchasing USDC or USDT through a reputable exchange like Coinbase or Kraken, and transferring those funds to a compatible betting platform.

While the initial setup takes a few minutes, every subsequent deposit and withdrawal happens almost instantly. For players who regularly use real money casino apps, the switch to stablecoins is one of the most impactful changes they can make to protect their bankroll from unnecessary fees.

If you are tired of paying your bank a premium just to access your own money, 2026 is the year to leave the credit card in your wallet.

Frequently Asked Questions

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The “Ghost” in the Machine: How AI is Predicting Your Next Bet Before You Make It

Something is watching your betting patterns, and it’s not the house pit boss. Artificial intelligence is now building personalized “game floors” for every player, predicting your preferences, and tailoring your experience in real time.

What Is AI Personalization in Gambling?

AI personalization in gambling refers to the use of machine learning algorithms to adapt betting odds, casino lobbies, and promotional offers to individual players based on their unique behavioral data.

Instead of every user seeing the exact same sportsbook homepage or casino lobby, the platform dynamically reshapes itself to match what the system believes you are most likely to engage with.

This isn’t a futuristic concept — it is happening right now. Major operators are shifting from experimental pilot programs to platform-wide AI architectures.

According to research from LSports, 72% of surveyed sportsbooks list a “personalized player experience” as the biggest factor in retaining customers. The goal is simple: keep you engaged longer by showing you exactly what you want to see.

How the Tech Works: Building Your Custom Game Floor

The traditional casino floor was designed to guide you past the slots to the table games, keeping you inside the ecosystem. Today, that floor is entirely digital and custom-built for you every time you log in.

Technologies like IGT’s TrueAim system, recently showcased at the Global Gaming Expo, demonstrate how deeply this integration goes. By ingesting loyalty program data — from slot play and table games to dining habits — the AI builds a comprehensive profile of your preferences.

If you are a casual slot player who prefers low-variance games and weekend play, your app interface will highlight those exact options. If you are a high-frequency sports bettor, you might see premium markets and deeper data feeds pushed to the top of your screen.

This extends to the odds themselves. The concept of “smart odds” means that AI systems can adapt betting lines based on user profiles, device types, or timing. While this promises higher engagement for operators, it also raises questions about transparency and fairness in pricing models.

What Data Are They Collecting?

To build these hyper-personalized experiences, operators need data — and lots of it. Every interaction you have with a betting app is a data point fed into the machine learning model.

The systems track every bet you place, every game you open, and the exact length of your sessions. They monitor what time of day you prefer to play, which days of the week you are most active, and whether you are betting from a mobile phone or a desktop computer.

More importantly, they analyze your response rates to different types of promotions and look for behavioral patterns, such as how you react after a loss.

Dr. Lia Nower of Rutgers University found in a 2023 study that a small percentage of bettors — around 5% — were placing 70% of the bets. For operators, identifying and retaining these highly engaged players is essential to their bottom line, making this data incredibly valuable.

How Players Can Flip the Script

While it might feel unsettling to know an algorithm is predicting your next move, savvy players can actually use this knowledge to their advantage. The AI is essentially holding up a mirror to your betting habits.

First, understand your own patterns. If the AI is showing you specific markets or games, it is because your past behavior indicates a preference for them. Recognizing this allows you to make more objective betting decisions rather than impulsive ones.

Second, exploit personalized bonuses strategically. If the system is feeding you tailored deposit matches or free spins, take advantage of the offers that provide genuine mathematical value — but resist the urge to play beyond your original bankroll just because the offer feels custom-made.

Finally, remember that the “personalized game floor” you see is not the objective reality of the sportsbook or casino. Dig deeper into the menus to find value bets and markets that the AI isn’t actively pushing to your homepage.

The Responsible Gambling Double-Edged Sword

The same technology that maximizes engagement also has the power to protect players. As AI becomes more sophisticated, it is increasingly being used for early intervention and harm reduction.

Systems can now predict gambling problems before the player even realizes they are losing control. By detecting risky behavior — such as sudden increases in bet sizing, erratic deposit frequency, or chasing losses — the AI can trigger responsible gaming alerts, suggest cooling-off periods, or even enforce hard limits.

In regions with strict regulatory frameworks, like the European Union under the new AI Act, this type of player protection is becoming a mandate rather than an option.

Ultimately, the ghost in the machine is neutral. It is designed to understand you better than you understand yourself. Whether that leads to a more entertaining betting experience or a cautionary tale depends entirely on how you play the game.

Frequently Asked Questions

Here are some of the most common questions about AI personalization in online gambling.

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Gambling involves risk. Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available 24/7 at the National Council on Problem Gambling or call 1-800-522-4700.

2026 World Series Odds, Picks, and Predictions

The 2026 MLB season is almost here. We got a 2026 MLB Opening Day pick out already, so if now isn’t a good time to pull back and take a big picture look at the coming season, I’m not sure when it is.

A long, grueling MLB season is ahead of us, but at the end of the road someone will do what the Los Angeles Dodgers have done the past two years; celebrate as World Series champions. Per DraftKings and other MLB betting sites, of course, it will actually once again be those annoying Dodgers.

Sorry, Dodgers fans, but I’m sure you get it.

Truth be told, as much as sports bettors want to nab some value – or MLB fans in general want a change in championship scenery – Los Angeles continues to look like the team to beat.

But nobody wants a reality where it’s just the Dodgers’ world, and we’re all just stuck living in it. The end result may very well be exactly that once the dust settles, but hope can be quite a thing. With that in mind, let’s preview the 2026 MLB season with a breakdown of the current World Series odds.

I’ll sift through the top contenders, the most alluring sleeper picks, and cap things off with an early 2026 MLB World Series prediction.

2026 World Series Odds

Above are the 10 teams with the best odds to win the World Series this year. The Dodgers leading the charge should surprise nobody. They’ll seek out history, as they have an opportunity to become just the fifth team in MLB history to complete a three-peat.

History isn’t really on their side, of course, while there are more than a few teams capable of dethroning them.

Still, the World Series odds display quite the pricing gap, as the New York Yankees are the second team in terms of price. They’re all the way down at +1000, and at least for the moment, L.A. is the only team with pricing better than that.

New York isn’t alone in their price range, either. They might be viewed as the top threat to the Dodgers, but eight other squads have World Series betting odds at +2000 or better per DraftKings.

Which teams should we take seriously, and who is being overlooked? I’ll go over the top contenders and top sleeper picks before deciding if this is the year of the Dodgers (again).

Why Are the Los Angeles Dodgers the World Series Favorites?

The real question is, why wouldn’t they be? The Dodgers won it all two seasons ago, and then even with their backs against the wall versus a seemingly better Blue Jays team, they willed their way to a repeat.

What’s changed since then? Los Angeles is still as stacked as ever, the best player in baseball – Shohei Ohtani – is still on their roster, and their murderer’s row of aces hasn’t gone away.

Clayton Kershaw is gone, but that’s arguably addition by subtraction at this point, while the perpetually loaded Dodgers only got better by adding big bat Kyle Tucker in free agency.

L.A. is simply unfair in all respects, and it remains to be seen if they can get anything meaningful out of Roki Sasaki. If Tucker is who they thought they were adding and Sasaki can morph into a reliable asset, the Dodgers might not be beatable.

Heck, even if Tucker is average and Sasaki does nothing, that still may end up being the case.

Top 2026 World Series Contenders

Los Angeles is the team to beat, to be sure, but it’s at least arguable that their time on top is about to run out. If it does, these four teams seem like the most likely bets to get the job done in 2026:

Best 2026 World Series Sleeper Picks

• Detroit Tigers (+2000)
• Baltimore Orioles (+2200)
• Milwaukee Brewers (+3500)

There’s nothing like taking a chance on some World Series betting value. Why? Because when a huge favorite like the Dodgers fails to live up to expectations, sometimes a team nobody sees coming can slop through the cracks and shock the world.

Think: Toronto from last year, Washington, Texas, and the list goes on. Shocking teams can reach or even win it all, so it can pay to toss some cash on a few teams that have the framework of a championship squad, but maybe aren’t priced as one.

The first one is easily the Tigers. They’re admittedly not even that far out from the top contenders, but Tarik Skubal headlines a rising defense that was in the top half of the majors in strikeouts last year and also did a great job limiting walks (10th).

Detroit still has Skubal leading the charge along with Jack Flaherty and Justin Verlander, while newcomer Framber Valdez adds some spice to the rotation.

Baltimore Orioles comes in at +2200 and may be even more compelling. The O’s have all the power in the world (11th in home runs) and are simply a young team that is starting to come together.

It’s actually the pitching department that could elevate this squad to new heights, though, as Trevor Rodgers has morphed into an ace and newcomers such as Shane Baz and Chris Bassit round out an Orioles rotation that lacks pizazz, but certainly isn’t short on substance.

There are plenty of other World Series sleepers in theory, but I’ll cap things off with the Milwaukee Brewers. This is undeniably a team at risk of taking a big step back – especially with the talented Chicago Cubs breathing down their neck – but they also had the best record in baseball a season ago.

That type of damage probably isn’t sustainable, and there are red flags associated with the Brew Crew (like trading away ace Freddy Peralta). However, the Brewers are well managed and do all of the little things right. Last year was living proof, as Milwaukee finished the season ranked 3rd in batting average, 2nd in stolen bases, and third in scoring.

Milwaukee Brewers was also nasty on defense, finishing 2nd in collective ERA and 5th in total strikeouts. Again, the Brewers lack the star power or budget of other teams, but the substance is still there.

The Brewers should also get Brandon Woodruff back and acquire Kyle Harrison via trade, while the team has cleared a path for some interesting prospects to potentially make an impact.

Milwaukee’s strategy carries some risk and isn’t for everyone, but it’s their way, and they keep executing it to perfection. That’s why we can’t rule out the possibility of it eventually leading to a ring.

Top World Series Longshot Bet for 2026

It’s pretty likely the 2026 World Series champion ends up being one of the teams discussed above. The Dodgers and Yankees look like really good bets to at least get there, while the other teams discussed stand out the most.

Even the sleeper picks I broke down look like viable options that may be riskier, but have a path to contention and offer more bang for your buck. That said, the MLB playoffs can be wild, and sometimes simply getting your foot in the door is all it takes.

Want a legit 2026 World Series longshot bet that actually has legs? Try the Pittsburgh Pirates on for size.

Any path to a World Series title has to start with elite defense. That comes from legit aces up top, and the Pirates definitely have one in the unflappable Paul Skenes.

Skenes was the driving force for a pitching rotation that finished top-10 in combined ERA, limited power (3rd fewest HR allowed), and didn’t give free passes (7th fewest walks). The Pirates need to heat up in the strikeouts department, but they already have the early makings of one of the best defenses in the league.

The problem? Their offense.

Pittsburgh has been a notoriously weak offensive team for years, and it’s a big reason they finished at the bottom of the Central Division last year. However, the Pirates added some power to their lineup with new arrivals in Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, and DH Marcell Ozuna.

The Pirates need that power to translate without seeing their strikeouts rise and batting average to go down any further. The jury is still out on this team offensively, but if they can come anywhere close to matching the level the defense has been at, this could be a fun sleeper team to back early.

Key Factors That Decide Who Will Win the World Series

The World Series winner usually is decided by a number of key factors. Here are the biggest ones that help shape the race and can end up altering odds:

• Pitching Depth: You need to shelf aces, but a strong bullpen is just as important.
• Trade Deadline: Who is willing to make the big odds-shifting moves required to help you go the distance?
• Health: The healthiest teams are often the best teams, standing tall at the end of the year.

On top of these factors, you need to be pretty darn good from top to bottom. Having nasty power will get you regular-season wins, but when the big games arrive, you also need to find other ways to get on base, avoid costly whiffs, and threaten the opposition with guys in scoring position.

The offenses that can do a little bit of everything or can combine power with efficiency and/or base running are the true contenders.

Defensively, you do need at least one ace to rally around, and having 2-3 top-shelf starting pitchers that can go deep into games is definitely key. But if the opposition gets to them early or they have off games, the pitchers behind them in the bullpen need to be capable of picking up the slack.

If you’re betting on the World Series, be sure to monitor injuries and the trajectory that comes along with them – and of course, how they impact a team’s depth and performance.

A great example was Gerrit Cole going down last year. Once that happened, the writing was on the wall that an all-or-nothing Yankees team would be good enough to make the playoffs, but that’s about it. Sadly, the pundits were correct.

2026 World Series Prediction: Who Wins It All This Year?

All roads undeniably lead back to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Baseball purists refuse to give into the idea that the salary cap is a true problem for baseball, but perhaps a third consecutive title will start to convince them.

The reality is if we’re judging this thing solely on talent, it continues to be not all that close. The Dodgers in their previous form were going to be the team to beat. Then they went out and added even more muscle on the plate with Kyle Tucker coming to town.

Los Angeles could perform below expectations. Maybe this time around a Toronto-esque team will go for the jugular and finish them off. But it feels unlikely. At least for one more year, getting the Dodgers at +230 to win the World Series feels like a hilarious gaffe.

Of course, if you do feel inclined to bet against L.A., consider the other contenders and sleeper teams I broke down in this World Series betting guide.

2026 Oscars Odds, Picks, and Predictions

The 2026 Oscars are almost here. The red carpet is about to roll out, and while simply enjoying the show and honoring magnificent Hollywood performances is fun, it’s not quite enough.

Instead, you can also bet on the Academy Awards, as DraftKings has odds out for every major award category. From Best Picture to Best Actor, you can do more than just offer Oscars predictions to your friends and family; you can show them the cash you make from betting on them.

Not every Oscars bet is alike, of course, and some odds are better than others. If you want the inside track to winning Oscars picks, join me as I run through every major award and come away with my top 2026 Oscars predictions.

Best Picture Odds and Prediction

One Battle After Another rolls into the 2026 Academy Awards with 13 nominations, which finished second only to Sinners. Sinners is shaping up as the only real threat to Paul Thomas Anderson’s baby getting the recognition it deserves.

You can make faint cases for other films. Marty Supreme has a former Oscar winner in Timothe Chalamet leading the charge in a well-made biopic (something the Academy eats up), while movies like Hamnet and Frankenstein are beautifully shot, are period pieces, and also are propped up by classic literature.

If you want a total curveball, dream big and consider the jaw-dropping Bugonia. It probably won’t win, but it’s certainly not light on captivating acting performances or raw brutality.

Of course, all roads surely lead back to One Battle After Another, which was priced at -300 at most online sportsbooks when I broke down the Best Picture odds not too long ago.

The odds have only jumped, while One Battle After Another has dominated the award circuit with wins for best film at the BAFTAs, the Producers Guild of America, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and more.

The one cause for pause? Hamnet won for Best Picture at this year’s Golden Globes. That outcome is often a mixed bag, as it can be seen as a consolation prize for a top-shelf movie that won’t win at the Oscars, or it can be a precursor to a film winning the big prize.

I’d definitely consider throwing some hedge bets on both Hamnet and Sinners, but all signs still suggest this is One Battle After Another’s race to lose.

Pick: One Battle After Another (-400)

Best Actor Odds and Prediction

Michael B. Jordan is the slight frontrunner to win Best Actor, with this nod being one of a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations for Sinners. Since the movie isn’t likely to unseat One Battle After Another, I can see it soaking up some of the other awards.

This is a big one, obviously, but if we’re looking at raw talent, acting, and platform, then Michael B. Jordan is a pretty good bet. For one, he won this same award at the NAACPO Image Awards, and he gained serious steam by winning again at the 32nd Annual Actor Awards.

That said, Timothee Chalamet is an Oscar veteran at just 30 years old. He’s been in some impressive and demanding projects, and yet has been passed over in four different nomination cycles. He could have easily won for his work in Call Me By Your Name or A Complete Unknown, but his effort in Marty Supreme represents his first real shot at the elusive hardware.

This looks like a two-man race, but I am digging the value and narrative associated with betting on Chalamet. For one, the odds are pretty tight. Secondly, Chalamet has come very close more than once and got snubbed. Lastly, he won the same award at the Golden Globes this year.

It’s a close call, but Chalamet arguably delivered the more compelling acting performance, and the Academy can honor Sinners in other categories.

Pick: Timothee Chalamet (+120)

Best Actress Odds and Prediction

There isn’t a similar dilemma when trying to predict who will win Best Actress at the 2026 Oscars. That’s almost definitely going to Jessie Buckley, as the Irish actress played a complex and emotionally deep role as the wife of William Shakespeare in the highly praised Hamnet.

She has a lot going for her, seeing as the overall competition seems fairly weak, she has a strong narrative after first gaining recognition as a nominee for The Lost Daughter, and she was a huge part of a classic movie that the Academy tends to love.

Oh, and she has dominated the awards circuit, winning this same award at the SAGs, BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Golden Globes. She’s a slam dunk.

The only issue here is the price. Nobody is betting on Buckley at -3500, so you’re either avoiding this wager or seeking out an upset. Emma Stone was brilliant as a suspected alien in Bugonia, but the only logical pivot is Rose Byrne.

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is a turbulent mind warp that got mixed reviews to say the least, but there’s no denying Byrne’s captivating performance. That said, this race is already settled.

Pick: Jessie Buckley (-3500)

Best Supporting Actor Odds and Prediction

Another Oscar race that is likely etched in stone is Best Supporting Actor. Considering the amount of screen time he gets one could argue that Penn should be in the mix for Best Actor, but no matter what, his nuanced performance as the vile but hilariously awkward Colonel Lockjaw makes him a deserving candidate.

He’s one of the easiest picks of the lot.

Penn is in the lead, and the Academy has shown him love in the past. With two Best Actor wins to his name, he can add another Oscar trophy to the mix for a pretty unforgettable effort in One Battle After Another.

You’re not getting a ton of value at his -350 price, although it’s leaps and bounds better than betting on Jessie Buckley. Still, there are viable pivots like Stellan Skarsgard and Delroy Lindo.

Benicio Del Toro didn’t get enough screen time (a true crime) but was a scene-stealer with what he had to work with, while Jacob Elordi was riveting as Frankenstein’s monster.

That said, Penn looks locked in as the winner.

Pick: Sean Penn (-350)

Best Supporting Actress Odds and Prediction

If you’re looking for value and/or a 2026 Oscars betting market that isn’t quite settled, look no further than the Best Supporting Actress.

Amy Madigan leads the way for her work in Weapons, but she is a plus-money favorite, meaning we can definitely look elsewhere. The top contender is Teyana Taylor as the scene-stealing rebel from One Battle After Another, but I only have eyes for Wunmi Mosaku, who was undeniably the heart and soul behind Sinners.

Those three ladies are in the fight of their lives for this award, and I can see any of them winning. However, the Academy has to honor Sinners in some way, so paying Mosaku the respect she deserves looks like a good way to do that. It doesn’t hurt that she offers supreme value at +225, either.

Pick: Wunmi Mosaku (+225)

Best Director Odds and Prediction

You don’t need to try very hard to predict who will win Best Director this year. Paul Thomas Anderson comes in with absurd -2500 odds to win the award, so it’s virtually guaranteed.

His film One Battle After Another is favored to win Best Picture as well, but even if it doesn’t he looks like a very strong bet due to the world he created, along with character development and overall tone. He’s cleaned up so far, taking home this same award at the BAFTAs, Directors Guild of America, and this year’s Golden Globes.

His insane betting odds mean he’s not really someone worth betting on. Oscar upsets do happen, too, so I’d either avoid this bet or take a flier on Ryan Coogler or Chloe Zhao.

Zhao undeniably helmed the most Oscars-y film of the year, as Hamnet’s gut-wrenching emotional journey was absolutely beautifully made. She won already for her work in Nomadland, however, which probably plays into why she’s not being seriously considered.

Sinners was nominated for 16 Oscars for a reason. It won’t win even half of the, but it’d be a shame if it didn’t take home a big one. It’ll have to stage some upsets to make it happen, but Coogler surviving a tidal wave of logic to come away with the win would be a fun upset to root for.

While that is where my money would be, the smart bet is still for Paul Thomas Anderson to come away with the award.

Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson (-2500)

Other 2026 Oscars Betting Markets & Picks

Above are the other 2026 Oscars betting markets, the leading odds on the favorite to win, and my pick for who will win each respective award.

Most of these are pretty settled, and the prices are egregious to the point of avoidance. You can find some value in a few, with my favorite being the Over on the number of Oscar wins for Sinners.

For a film nominated 16 times, it’d be pretty disappointing if it didn’t win at least five times. It’s important to remember that nominations don’t mean wins, but I still like its chances, and the +100 odds are nice.

Sinners (+250) to win Best Cinematography is also one of the better 2026 Oscars upset picks you can bet on this year.

Tips for Betting on the Oscars in 2026

Before you bet on the 2026 Academy Awards, make sure you follow these helpful tips:

Best 2026 Oscars Bets

I’ve broken down all of the major Oscar award categories and offered my predictions, but some of these betting markets have egregiously priced favorites.

Naturally, you’re not betting on someone to win Best Adapted Screenplay at a staggering -3500 price tag. That likely means an upset isn’t possible, but you’re either avoiding that wager or targeting something offering better value.

With value in mind, here are the best bets for the 2026 Oscars:

• Best Picture: One Battle After Another (-400)
• Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet (+120)
• Best Actress: Rose Byrne (+1200)
• Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn (-350)
• Best Supporting Actress: Wunmi Mosaku (+225)
• Best Director: Ryan Coogler (+800)

Remember, my best bets for the 2026 Oscars don’t mean these are the winners I am predicting. I already did that above when breaking down each Oscar category with the latest odds. These are more about tapping into the best pure value for each spot.

Betting on the Oscars in 2026

If you’re looking for 2026 Oscars odds and want to know the best place to bet, look no further than DraftKings. I pulled all of these wagers and the pricing above from DK, and right now, they’re arguably the top spot to bet on the Oscars this year.

DraftKings doesn’t need much of a sales pitch, as they’re one of the better-regulated sportsbooks out there, but the fact that they’re also touching on entertainment betting markets is an added bonus.

Go there to bet on the Oscars and stay there for the competitive pricing, bonuses, and wide array of bets.

I’ve handed out my top 2026 Oscars predictions and picks, but as noted, some of these categories just don’t make betting much fun. I’d definitely move away from the spots with really heavy favorites and try to locate some value.

Want my top Oscars bet for the entire event? I’d be targeting Sean Penn to win Best Supporting Actor at -350 pretty aggressively.

The price isn’t to die for, but it’s probably the best-priced 2026 Oscars bet that feels like a sure thing.

My favorite value is Chalamet (+120) to land his first Oscar win for Best Actor.

Overall, there is still plenty of value to tap into at this year’s Oscars. Lean on my picks and predictions and head to DraftKings to take advantage of some of the best pricing you’ll find anywhere online.

The “Shoulder” Factor: Is a Healthy Pacquiao a Good Bet?

The first fight between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao went to a Decision in favor of “Money” Mayweather. Once the fight was over, Manny Pacquiao cried foul to an extent, suggesting that he wasn’t at 100% full strength due to a shoulder injury.

For years, Pacquiao truthers and even he and his camp suggested that had his shoulder been feeling better, he’d have won the match. It’s a hot topic coming into September’s Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 battle, as bettors everywhere want to know if a healthy Manny will actually have the edge.

To figure out whether or not it makes a difference, I’ll break down this narrative and what it means for the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao rematch.

What Happened to Manny Pacquiao’s Shoulder in the First Fight?

It was revealed after the first fight that Manny Pacquiao suffered a “significant” rotator cuff tear that required surgery. Manny’s camp even tried to get an anti-inflammatory shot approved in the dressing room, but it was ultimately not allowed.

Due to the recovery timeline (9-12 months) and the money at stake, Pacquiao moved forward with the bout, despite not being at 100%.

Given that this injury has been proven to be factual, it’s fair to wonder if Pacquiao would have performed better if he wasn’t dealing with such a devastating injury.

Not sold that it would have mattered much? There is a case to be made that Pacquiao wasn’t beating Mayweather, no matter how healthy he was. But to shrug it off like it meant nothing feels disingenuous.

How Much Did the Shoulder Injury Actually Impact Pacquiao?

The Manny Pacquiao shoulder injury was probably a bigger deal than even he and his team are suggesting. It doesn’t forgive the loss or mean that he would have won if he were healthy, but the stats are eye-popping.

This is just a three-fight comparison, and it’s painfully obvious that Manny’s punch volume and landing efficiency both plummet.

Now, could the key difference be Floyd Mayweather’s trademark defense and pacing? Sure, but the sharp contrast in numbers suggests this shoulder argument has more legs than some care to admit.

Pacquiao’s strength resides in his volume and punch power. If he can’t throw punches as much as he wants to, nor deliver them with the same impact as normal, he’s at a disadvantage.

We can’t really measure that a decade later, but the sheer idea of combining any level of discomfort and inefficiency with Mayweather’s defense certainly doesn’t favor Pacquiao.

What a Healthy Pacquiao Changes in the Rematch

Let’s just play devil’s advocate here. Whether you liked Mayweather to win the first time or this time, if Pacquiao truly wasn’t healthy and that was a key contributor to his output, we need to calibrate a bite here.

If that was the main underlying reason for his poor performance – and not solely Mayweather’s fighting style – then there’s undeniable value to be tapped into.

Truth be told, a decade makes a difference, too. Mayweather’s elite defense, pacing, and endurance may not be at the level they once were. That could open the door for Pacquiao’s punching volume and ability to produce damage to give him a serious leg up in a rematch.

It’s as simple as this: if we can trust Pacquiao to generate more value and more power, we need to give his plus money odds a long, hard look.

This doesn’t need to equate to Pacquiao knocking out Mayweather, either. It just needs to mean he can level the playing field, steal points that he couldn’t get the first time around, and give him a shot if this bout once again comes down to the judges.

The Mayweather Counterpoint Bettors Can’t Ignore

The debate of Manny Pacquiao being at full strength for this rematch is heating up. Even I am starting to feel the burn, and I already went on record to say Mayweather was a borderline lock – especially at his original cheap price.

But there’s something people tend to discount when embracing the “Pacquiao wasn’t healthy” defense; Mayweather still outlanded him by 67 punches.

Would a shoulder injury really account for that much of a drop in volume and efficiency? And would it really make an impact on the opposite side of the matchup when it came to defending Mayweather’s offense?

If you’re saying “yes”, you’re basically saying a bum shoulder negates any of Pacquiao’s error points. I’m talking about him reaching, missing, and failing to string together combinations and long scoring sequences.

An injury can only explain so much. It’s pretty unlikely it explains everything. Unless you truly believe that to be the case, automatically betting on Pacquiao simply because he’s now 100% healthy feels like a knee-jerk mistake.

Does a Healthy Shoulder Make Pacquiao a Good Bet?

I already wrote up my Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 prediction and preferred betting pick. Nothing I’ve detailed here really changes my opinion, simply because I already took it into account when dissecting the matchup.

You can check out my top pick for the bout at the link above, but I will say this: Pacquiao being at full strength does give him a boost in the matchup.

That is, of course, if you think it really matters a decade later, or if you thought going into the first matchup that Manny really had a chance in the first place.

But fighters being able to throw more volume and inflict more damage with maximum power obviously gives them a better shot. Whether that means Manny could have or will get a knockout or if it simply allows the fight to be more interesting, that is open for debate.

Who Will Be the #1 Pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Odds, Favorites & Predictions

Betting on the 2026 NBA Draft has never been better. That may sound like generic hyperbole, but it’s true, as DraftKings and other basketball betting apps are offering extremely tight odds for who will go first overall. Darryn Peterson is our top choice for the number one pick in the 2026 NBA Draft but let’s see how everyone else compares.

Sifting through the best prop bets is something for another day. Right now, at this moment, you can bet on who will be drafted first overall in the NBA Draft this year, and the two most likely options max out at -110.

In fact, there’s a third realistic pick, and their odds are an absurd +700.

Who gets chosen first in the 2026 NBA Draft is something that is still up in the air. March Madness hasn’t come and gone, so the top-shelf talent hasn’t had a chance to really leave their mark on the biggest stage.

But you know value when you see it. And right now, you can take advantage of a mispriced betting market. Let’s find out how as I break down the latest 2026 NBA Draft odds and come away with a final prediction for who will get picked first overall.

Latest 2026 NBA Draft Odds – Who Will Go 1st Overall?

The latest odds for the 1st pick in the 2026 NBA Draft remind us of what we probably already knew: this is at most a three-man race, and it’s more than likely down to two prospects.

If we’re being honest with ourselves, it’s probably one guy’s race to lose.

Still, no matter where your loyalties lie, the pricing up top is pretty ridiculous. Both AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson are worthy of being in the mix to go first overall, but Dybantsa is favored by the slimmest of margins.

This probably has everything to do with character and work ethic concerns surrounding Peterson, even if they may be overblown.

Coming in a distant third is Duke Blue Devils big man Cameron Boozer. In any other draft, he may be the consensus top pick, while there’s a pretty valid case to be made that he’s actually the most impactful player on the board.

Is it worth your time to go beyond these guys? Does Boozer have a real shot at shocking the world? Or are we just destined to get amazing value as we try to decide between Dybantsa and Peterson?

I’ll break it all down before coming to a final prediction for who the number one pick in the 2026 NBA Draft will be.

Why is AJ Dybantsa Favored to Be the #1 Pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?

The biggest reason why AJ Dybantsa is the current favorite to go first overall in the NBA Draft is his massive potential.

AJ Dybantsa has untapped upside, but he’s already starting to sniff it, as he’s pouring in nearly 25 points per game for BYU. He’s not just a one-tricky pony, however, as he rebounds well (6.7 rpg), can create (3.8 assists per game), is active on defense (1.1 steals per game), and has proven he can knock down the long ball (34%).

The stats don’t paint the entire picture, though.

AJ Dybantsa is a true do-it-all player who can carry the mantle for his offense, enforce his will on offense, take on the opposition’s top defender, break down the defense with his handle, knock down impossible shots, and still have the energy and desire to give it everything he’s got on the other end of the floor.

Even better? NBA GMs love those tasty measureables, and he’s definitely got them in spades, as he clocks in at 6’9” and has a solid wingspan.

AJ Dybantsa has also been grinding away, passing every test and checking each box, while leading the BYU Cougars to a respectable 20-10 record at the time of this writing. More specifically, he’s the driving force behind the nation’s 22nd-best scoring offense.

A big part of the equation is always going to be who picks at #1 in the NBA Draft. That’s unknown as of now, but literally anyone could use someone like Dybantsa, who can do almost everything well.

Fit can’t be ignored, however. For instance, the team picking first could prefer Peterson – if even by a hair – or they could have a greater need down low, forcing Boozer into the conversation.

There’s also the new rumor that he may not even leave BYU after this season.

If that ends up being true, then these odds are going to change in a hurry. And suddenly, the top contenders would have a real shot to take over the top spot.

Top Contenders to Go #1 Overall This Year

• Darryn Peterson (+120)
• Cameron Boozer (+650)

The odds keep fluctuating for this market, but the players in consideration for the #1 pick really haven’t. AJ Dybantsa is the frontrunner right now, and right behind him are Peterson and Boozer – the only two realistic threats to go first overall.

Peterson is easily the one bettors need to take the most seriously. The Kansas product has caught heat due to removing himself from a game and battling an injury, but you really can’t slam him for his sheer talent and upside.

Everyone wants the next Anthony Edwards, and that’s exactly what Peterson could be if he reaches his ceiling. He doesn’t offer the same size as AJ Dybantsa, but his offensive game is silky smooth, complete with a deadly jumper and the ability to get to any spot he wants and hit any shot his team needs him to make.

A dynamic scorer who can kill defenses from every level, Peterson has averaged 19.5 points per game for the Jayhawks, helping them to a solid 21-9 record at the time of this writing.

Peterson isn’t quite the playmaker AJ Dybantsa is, and he doesn’t have the same defensive potential, but his offensive game is further advanced for the next level. He’s proven to be a marksman from long range, he can get to the rim with ease, he’s deadly in isolation, and he can carry an offense on his back.

Defensively, Peterson has the athleticism, size, and IQ to match up with just about anyone, allowing him to be a legit difference-maker at both ends of the floor.

When putting AJ Dybantsa vs. Darryn Peterson, it’s going to come down to who is picking #1 overall, how the fit looks, and what they need from their incoming prospect.

There’s also Boozer, who could get a huge boost to his draft stock if teams like Indiana or Dallas end up landing the top pick in the draft.

Put simply, Dallas would arguably not have as big of a need for a superstar player since they already have Flagg, but they could use some serious help on the interior at both ends of the floor.

Boozer is an intimidating presence at both ends, as he has the size, physicality, and tools to score efficiently and also be a stopper on defense. Boozer is not nearly as dynamic or as explosive as the guards he’s going up against, but he fills a different need and would provide serious help on the glass, boost interior scoring, and help any team’s defense.

A double-double threat, Boozer is a defensive asset (1.6 steals per game) but can also space the floor remarkably well (40% from deep) despite his size. He lacks shot-creating ability and isn’t as athletic or as fluid as AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson, but he’s every bit as tantalizing of a prospect.

AJ Dybantsa has competition, is the point. It’s going to come down to what the team picking first overall needs, and what their personal preference is if choosing between Dybantsa and Peterson.

Top Longshot Bet to Go #1 Overall

There really isn’t one, and that isn’t to rain on anyone’s “value hunting” parade, but as noted, this is at the very most a three-man race. And it’s probably more realistically coming down to just AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson.

Need to look for a cheap thrill and toss some cash on someone with outlandish odds? Then give Illinois product Keaton Wagler a whirl.

He’s not going 1st overall, but in another draft, he’d have a case. Averaging 18 points, five rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game while pushing the Fighting Illini up the Top 25 college basketball rankings, he’s a do-it-all guard with elite size, an exceptional shooting stroke, and a handle that allows him to penetrate the defense and create at will.

He’s been fantastic for a first-year player, hitting 42% from deep while generating a ton of offense for a good Illinois squad. If you weren’t convinced he was the real deal, a 46-point eruption against the Purdue Boilermakers maybe did the job.

The best part? Nobody would see Wagler coming, as DraftKings has him priced at an insane +25000.

There probably isn’t a real path forward here, of course. Wagler has the game and ceiling deserving of consideration, but he’s still a bit behind AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson in the guard conversation.

It’d require both of those guys returning to school or suffering a devastating injury to change things. That, or Wagler would have to go on an insane tear and set records as he tears through this year’s March Madness tourney.

Never say never, I guess. Especially at +25000 odds.

Key Factors That Decide the Top Pick in the NBA Draft

Want an idea as to what actually goes into the top pick each year? Here’s a quick checklist detailing what it takes to be the first player chosen:

• Star Potential: Teams picking 1st want a player with a borderline limitless ceiling. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but untapped potential and an athletic prospect that can be molded and coached is preferred.
• Fitting Need: If you’re picking #1, you probably have more than one need. However, if you’re set at guard, for instance, you may value a stud big man over a flashy guard.
• Production: This isn’t always the case, as we’ve seen overseas players picked without doing much in the way of actual production. However, teams tend to prefer to have seen players perform at an elite level statistically before pulling the trigger.
• Player Workouts: Tape and stats only get you so far. Teams will put a lot of stock in player workouts and interviews, which gives them an inside look at the type of person they’re investing in.

These are the key variables to consider when trying to predict who will go first in the NBA Draft. One thing to keep in mind is stuff that is intangible, like pre-draft rumors, reports that don’t have firm backing, or experts reading between the lines.

Those types of things can turn a clear picture hazy, especially in the event the race to be picked first overall is so close like it is this year.

NBA Draft Top Pick Prediction – Who Will Go First Overall in 2025?

Need aside, the first pick in the NBA Draft is really all about the best combination of star potential and ability. The guy that stands out the most when thinking about the league’s next superstar is easily Darryn Peterson.

You could make a case that Peterson is mildly overrated, while there is no denying that AJ Dybantsa is the more complete player right now. He’s also been more productive and offers a more tantalizing package physically.

But Peterson offers more star potential and is already the better offensive player. If he hadn’t run into a situation where he was struggling with his health, this may not even be a conversation.

The race for the top pick is definitely close, and if the team picking first chooses AJ Dybantsa, I don’t think anyone would be that shocked. However, Peterson is arguably the best prospect in this draft class, and we can get him at plus money.

That’s something not just to celebrate, but something bettors should be racing to exploit. Just make sure you shop for the best price around different betting sites before finalizing your bet.

How Much Money Do Americans Lose to Gambling Each Year? (2026 Data & Analysis)

But here’s the part most headlines miss: That number doesn’t mean what people think it means.

Is it evenly distributed? Is it growing? Is online betting the real driver? And how does it compare to other industries Americans spend money on?

In this report, we break down exactly how much Americans lose to gambling each year, where that money goes, which states generate the most losses, and what the long-term trend actually looks like.

Because raw numbers are easy to throw around. Understanding them is harder.

What Counts as “Gambling Losses”?

When people hear that Americans lose over $100 billion a year gambling, the immediate reaction is shock. But that number needs context.

In gambling economics, “losses” are typically measured using a metric called Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR).

What Is Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR)?

Gross Gaming Revenue equals:

Total money wagered – Total winnings paid back to players

This number represents what operators keep after paying out winning bets. It is the industry’s standard measurement for gambling losses.

For example:

• If players wager $1 billion on sports betting
• And sportsbooks pay back $930 million in winnings
• The sportsbook’s GGR (or player losses) equals $70 million

That $70 million is considered gambling losses for that category.

What Gambling Losses Do Include

For the purpose of this analysis, we include regulated gambling sectors such as:

• Commercial casino table games and slot machines
• Tribal casino operations
• Legal sports betting (retail + online)
• Online casino gaming (iGaming)
• State lottery ticket sales (net retained revenue)
• Pari-mutuel wagering (horse racing)

Each of these verticals reports revenue differently, but they ultimately represent money lost by consumers after payouts.

What Gambling Losses Do Not Include

It’s equally important to understand what is excluded from official figures:

• Illegal or offshore gambling activity
• Private betting between individuals
• Total wagers (also called “handle”)
• Promotional credits that reduce net revenue
• Operating expenses of casinos or sportsbooks

For example, sports betting “handle” — which often exceeds $100 billion annually — reflects total bets placed, not actual losses. The actual losses are a much smaller percentage determined by the sportsbook’s hold rate.

Why the Numbers Can Be Confusing

Gambling data often gets misinterpreted because different terms are used interchangeably:

• Revenue
• Losses
• Profit
• Handle
• Sales (in the case of lotteries)

Lotteries are especially confusing. While lottery “sales” may exceed $100 billion, only a portion of that becomes retained revenue after prizes are paid.

That retained portion functions similarly to GGR in casino gaming.

A Key Distinction: Revenue vs Profit

Another common misconception:

Gross Gaming Revenue is not the same as operator profit.

From GGR, gambling companies still must pay:

• Taxes
• Employee wages
• Marketing expenses
• Technology costs
• Licensing fees
• Property and operating expenses

The remaining portion becomes net profit.

So when we say Americans “lose” over $100 billion annually, that does not mean gambling companies pocket that entire amount as profit.

It means that’s the amount retained after winnings are paid out.

Why This Definition Matters

Understanding how gambling losses are measured allows us to:

• Avoid inflating or exaggerating figures
• Make fair comparisons across sectors
• Accurately compare gambling to other industries
• Provide journalists and researchers with usable data

Clear definitions are what separate sensational headlines from credible analysis.

And in an industry often surrounded by misinformation, credibility matters.

Total Gambling Losses in the United States (Latest Year Available)

When combining all regulated gambling verticals, Americans lose well over $100 billion annually.

Below is how losses typically break down by category.

*These percentages are estimates based on relative size of known figures and won’t sum cleanly because of data overlap (e.g., online sports figures are partly included in total sports betting).

Average Gambling Loss Per American

When total U.S. gambling losses exceed $100 billion annually, the obvious next question is:

What does that mean per person?

If you divide total regulated gambling revenue by the U.S. adult population, the average annual loss typically falls in the several-hundred-dollar range per adult. In years where total losses approach $200+ billion (including lottery), that figure can exceed $1,000 per adult.

But averages can be misleading. Gambling losses are not evenly distributed.

Economic research consistently shows:

• A minority of frequent gamblers account for a disproportionate share of total losses.
• Casual participants (especially lottery players) may spend small amounts spread across the year.
• High-frequency bettors drive a large percentage of industry revenue.

From a consumer spending perspective, gambling competes with other discretionary categories such as:

• Streaming subscriptions
• Dining out
• Alcohol purchases
• Live entertainment

For many households, gambling functions as paid entertainment rather than investment activity.

However, from a macroeconomic standpoint, the scale is significant. When losses reach $100+ billion annually, gambling represents one of the largest entertainment revenue streams in the country — comparable to major consumer industries.

The key takeaway: While the average loss per American may appear moderate, the total economic impact is massive — and highly concentrated among active participants.

Which States Lose the Most Money to Gambling?

Gambling losses aren’t evenly spread across the United States. States with large populations, major casino markets, widespread lottery participation, and legalized sports betting tend to generate the highest gambling revenue — meaning more money lost by bettors overall.

Below is an overview of the states that currently lead the nation in gambling losses and revenue generation, based on commercial casino receipts, sports betting figures, and overall consumer spend.

🏆 Top States by Total Gambling Revenue (Loss Proxy)

These states report the most gambling dollars retained by operators — a direct reflection of losses absorbed by consumers:

1. Nevada
   Nevada remains the gambling capital of the U.S., with commercial casino revenue topping $15.5 B in 2024 — the highest of any state.
2. Pennsylvania
   Pennsylvania consistently ranks near the top with billions in annual casino and online gaming revenue.
3. New Jersey
   Atlantic City and online gaming drives strong revenue performance — with New Jersey usually landing in the top three states for total gambling revenue.
4. New York
   New York has surged in recent years, driven by lottery sales, casinos, and fast-growing mobile sports betting revenue.
5. Michigan & Ohio
   Both states are among the fastest-growing gambling markets, with strong iGaming and sportsbook performance.

These states often dominate because of multiple revenue streams: large populations, high tourism, legal online betting, and robust lottery participation.

📊 States with the Highest Per-Capita Gambling Loss Burden

Total gambling revenue tells part of the story. When adjusted for population, smaller states with heavy gambling access can register even higher per-person losses. States like:

• Nevada (highest per capita handle and revenue due to tourism and residents)
• West Virginia — high gambling revenue relative to personal income
• Rhode Island and Delaware — with small populations but concentrated casino and lottery markets

These states often show disproportionate gambling revenue when measured per adult or per $1,000 of personal income — a useful metric for understanding relative losses.

Why Some States Top the Gambling Loss List

Large Markets + Big Populations

States like New York and Pennsylvania benefit from sheer population size and multiple legal gambling verticals (lottery, casinos, sports betting).

Commercial Casino Hubs

Nevada, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania host major casino markets that attract tourists and local gamblers alike — driving billions in annual revenue (i.e., consumer losses).

Fast-Growing Sports Betting

States with well-developed online sports betting ecosystems — including New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Ohio — generate massive handle and revenue, adding to overall gambling losses.

Lottery Participation

Lottery sales remain one of the most widely accessible forms of gambling. States with high lottery engagement (e.g., New York) contribute significantly to total losses.

States that lose the most money to gambling tend to share three key traits:

✔ Large populations
✔ Multiple legal gambling options (lottery, casino, sports betting)
✔ Strong online wagering markets

Large totals don’t always mean higher individual losses — per-capita measures can tell a different story — but they do show where the most dollars flow out of bettors’ pockets and into the gambling economy.

Online Gambling vs Retail Gambling: Where Is Growth Happening?

One of the biggest shifts in the U.S. gambling landscape over the past decade has been the rapid expansion of online gambling. While brick-and-mortar casinos still generate the largest share of overall revenue, digital channels — especially online sports betting and iGaming — are growing faster and reshaping how Americans lose (and spend) money on gambling.

Understanding this shift is crucial for both readers and search engines because it highlights trends and drivers rather than just static numbers.

📈 Online Gambling Growth

Legal online gambling now includes:

• Mobile sports betting apps
• Online casinos (iGaming)
• Digital poker and card rooms

Key reasons online gambling is growing faster than retail:

1. 24/7 Accessibility: Players can bet anytime from their phones — no travel required.
2. Ease of Use: User-friendly apps, quick deposits, and faster payouts encourage more frequent play.
3. Wider Promotion & Bonuses: Online operators invest heavily in welcome offers and ongoing promotions to attract and retain users.
4. Pandemic Acceleration: COVID-19 accelerated adoption as retail venues closed and players turned to digital alternatives.
5. Regulatory Expansion: More states are legalizing online sports betting and iGaming, creating new markets that didn’t exist five years ago.

As a result, online segments have posted double-digit growth rates year over year, even when retail revenue is already high.

For example: In 2025, legal online gambling revenue — combining iGaming and mobile sports betting — reached an estimated $26.8 B, reflecting continued expansion into new states.

🏨 Retail Gambling: Still Big, But Slower Growth

Traditional, land-based gambling continues to generate the largest absolute revenue totals, particularly in established markets such as:

• Commercial casinos (e.g., Las Vegas, Atlantic City)
• Tribal casinos nationwide
• Racetracks with on-site betting and gaming

Retail gambling still benefits from:

• Tourism and destination gaming
• Entertainment experiences (shows, food, nightlife)
• Physical presence and brand loyalty

For many players, retail remains the preferred environment for large events, social gaming, and high-stakes play.

However, its growth rate tends to be slower compared to online segments because:

• It’s limited by geography
• Expansion requires physical investment (land, infrastructure)
• New customers are often driven by online convenience

📊 Side-by-Side Growth Comparison

What This Means for Total Gambling Losses

Because online gambling expands access and convenience, it attracts a broader audience and increases total bet volume. That translates into:

✔ Larger cumulative revenue (losses) over time
✔ Faster year-over-year percentage growth
✔ Higher engagement among younger demographics

Retail gambling still dominates total revenue in mature markets, but online is the growth engine driving future expansion.

Why This Trend Matters

For players, this shift means:

• More options and easier access
• More promotional incentives
• Faster settling of bets
• Higher competitive pressure on sportsbooks and casinos

For states and regulators, it means:

• Growth in tax revenue
• Greater need for responsible gambling measures
• Increased scrutiny over consumer protection

How Gambling Losses Compare to Other U.S. Spending

Saying Americans lose over $100 billion per year to gambling sounds massive. But how large is that number compared to other consumer spending categories?

When placed in context, gambling is one of the largest discretionary entertainment industries in the country — though it operates differently from many others.

📊 Gambling vs Other Major Spending Categories

To understand scale, consider how annual gambling losses compare to:

• Alcohol spending — Americans spend well over $250 billion annually on alcohol.
• Fast food — Consumer spending exceeds $200 billion per year.
• Streaming services — Tens of billions annually across platforms.
• Video games — Roughly $50–60 billion per year in the U.S.
• Stock trading fees & brokerage revenue — Billions annually, depending on market cycles.

In that context, gambling sits among the largest entertainment-related revenue streams in the country.

It is significantly larger than:

• The U.S. movie box office
• Most professional sports league revenues
• Many segments of digital media

A Different Type of Spending

However, gambling differs from traditional purchases in one key way: It is mathematically designed with a negative expected return for the consumer.

When someone spends $15 on a movie ticket, they receive entertainment value in exchange.

When someone wagers $15 at a casino, they may receive winnings — but over time, the house edge ensures that a portion of all wagers is retained by the operator.

From a macroeconomic standpoint, gambling losses represent:

• A transfer of consumer funds to private operators and state governments
• Tax revenue for public programs
• Profits for corporations and tribal gaming entities

Unlike goods or services that are consumed and gone, gambling revenue is redistributed within the system.

Concentration Matters

Another important distinction: Spending on food or streaming is broadly distributed across households.

Gambling losses, by contrast, are often concentrated among:

• Frequent bettors
• High-volume players
• Individuals in states with expanded online access

That concentration amplifies the economic impact among a smaller segment of participants.

When total losses exceed $100 billion annually, gambling:

• Rivals major consumer industries
• Generates billions in state tax revenue
• Influences public policy debates
• Attracts regulatory scrutiny

It’s not a niche hobby. It’s a major economic force operating at national scale. And understanding how it compares to other spending categories helps put that scale into perspective — without exaggeration.

Who Makes the Most From These Losses?

When Americans lose billions to gambling each year, that money doesn’t disappear. It flows into a structured ecosystem of operators, governments, and affiliated industries.

The primary beneficiaries of gambling losses include:

• Commercial casino corporations (publicly traded companies operating major resorts and sportsbooks)
• Tribal gaming operations (sovereign tribal entities that operate casinos nationwide)
• Sportsbook operators (both retail and online platforms)
• State governments (via gaming taxes, lottery profits, and licensing fees)

In many states, gambling revenue is taxed at significant rates. Sports betting tax rates, for example, can range from under 10% to over 50% depending on the jurisdiction. Online casino tax structures are often even higher.

That tax revenue is frequently allocated toward:

• Public education funding
• Infrastructure projects
• Pension obligations
• Responsible gambling programs

Lotteries are especially important in this discussion. In many states, lottery profits are earmarked specifically for education, making them one of the largest contributors to state-controlled gambling revenue streams.

From a corporate perspective, gambling operators generate billions in gross gaming revenue — but that is not pure profit. Operators must still cover:

• Marketing and customer acquisition costs
• Technology and platform development
• Licensing and compliance expenses
• Payroll and property operations

Still, the scale is significant. Major casino companies and sportsbook brands generate multi-billion-dollar annual revenues, making gambling one of the most lucrative regulated entertainment industries in the country.

At a macro level, gambling losses represent:

• Consumer entertainment spending
• Corporate revenue
• Government tax income

In other words, when Americans lose money gambling, it becomes income for businesses and public institutions — reinforcing why gambling remains both economically powerful and politically relevant.

Are Gambling Losses Increasing or Decreasing?

Over the past decade, gambling losses in the United States have generally trended upward — and in several years, they’ve reached record highs.

The growth hasn’t been random. It has been driven by structural changes in the industry, particularly legalization and technology.

📈 Key Drivers Behind the Increase

Several major developments have fueled rising gambling revenue (and therefore losses):

• 2018 Supreme Court decision on sports betting
  The repeal of PASPA allowed states to legalize sports betting, unlocking dozens of new markets.
• Rapid expansion of mobile betting apps
  Smartphones removed geographic barriers, making betting available 24/7.
• Online casino legalization in select states
  iGaming typically generates higher margins than sports betting and has grown quickly where permitted.
• Aggressive promotional spending
  Welcome bonuses, free bets, and advertising have increased participation.
• Improved payment infrastructure
  Faster deposits and withdrawals reduce friction and increase engagement.

Together, these factors expanded access — and increased total wagering volume.

Temporary Disruptions, Long-Term Growth

There have been short-term fluctuations.

For example:

• During COVID-19 shutdowns, retail casino revenue dropped sharply.
• At the same time, online gambling surged.
• Once retail reopened, both channels continued growing in many states.

The overall trajectory since 2018 shows a clear upward trend in total regulated gambling revenue.

Is There a Ceiling?

Whether losses continue rising depends on:

• Additional state legalization (especially online casinos)
• Regulatory changes
• Economic conditions and consumer spending trends
• Market saturation in mature states

Some analysts believe growth may slow as markets mature. Others argue that digital innovation — including micro-betting and in-play wagering — will continue pushing totals higher.

At the national level, gambling losses have increased significantly over the past decade.

While year-to-year fluctuations occur, the broader pattern reflects:

✔ Expanded legalization
✔ Increased digital access
✔ Higher consumer participation

Unless regulatory changes restrict access, the long-term trend suggests gambling revenue — and the losses that fuel it — will likely remain elevated compared to pre-2018 levels.

Problem Gambling vs Recreational Gambling

Any serious discussion about gambling losses must separate recreational participation from problem gambling.

Most Americans who gamble do so casually — buying lottery tickets, placing small sports bets, or visiting casinos occasionally for entertainment. For these participants, gambling functions similarly to other discretionary spending categories like concerts, dining out, or sporting events.

However, research consistently shows that gambling losses are not evenly distributed.

Studies suggest:

• A small percentage of gamblers account for a disproportionately large share of total losses.
• Frequent or high-intensity bettors generate a significant portion of operator revenue.
• Problem gambling prevalence rates typically fall in the low single-digit percentages of the adult population — but financial impact among that group can be severe.

This concentration effect is economically important. It helps explain how total national losses can exceed $100 billion annually while the “average” loss per adult appears relatively modest.

Responsible Gambling Measures

In response to rising online access, regulators and operators have expanded consumer protection tools, including:

• Deposit and wagering limits
• Self-exclusion programs
• Cooling-off periods
• Reality checks and time tracking
• Access to national problem gambling helplines

Many states now require operators to display responsible gambling messaging and provide direct links to support resources.

Why This Distinction Matters

Understanding the difference between recreational and problem gambling is critical for interpreting the data. National revenue figures alone do not tell the full story.

While gambling represents a major entertainment industry and tax revenue source, its social impact depends heavily on who is generating those losses — and under what circumstances.

This distinction adds necessary nuance to any conversation about how much Americans truly lose each year.

Frequently Asked Questions

Data Sources & Methodology

The figures presented in this analysis are compiled from publicly available reports and regulatory disclosures, including:

Where possible, revenue figures reflect Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) — the standard industry metric representing total wagers minus winnings paid to players.

Lottery data reflects net retained revenue after prize payouts, which functions similarly to GGR in casino gaming.

Per-adult loss estimates were calculated by dividing total regulated gambling revenue by the U.S. adult population for the corresponding year. All figures reflect regulated gambling markets and do not include illegal or offshore wagering.

Final Verdict: A $100+ Billion Industry Shaping American Spending

The data makes one thing clear: gambling is not a fringe activity in the United States. It is a massive, regulated, multi-billion-dollar industry that now rivals some of the country’s largest entertainment sectors.

Each year, Americans lose well over $100 billion — and in some calculations, far more — across casinos, sports betting, online gambling platforms, and lotteries. That money fuels corporate revenue, state tax income, tribal gaming operations, and public programs nationwide.

But raw totals don’t tell the whole story.

Losses are not evenly distributed. Participation varies by state. Online access is accelerating growth. And a relatively small segment of high-frequency players accounts for a disproportionate share of total revenue.

At the same time, gambling also functions as paid entertainment for millions of Americans who budget it like any other discretionary expense.

The future of gambling in the U.S. will likely be increasingly digital, mobile, and data-driven. As more states expand legalization and online adoption continues, total gambling revenue — and losses — will remain a central economic and policy discussion.

Understanding the numbers isn’t about alarmism. It’s about clarity. And clarity is what allows individuals, policymakers, and markets to make informed decisions moving forward.

10 Wild Prop Bets We Want to See for Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2

Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 is officially on. The rematch that has been a decade in the making will go down on Netflix on September 19th.

It sure seems like Netflix is dominating out there, folks. The top streaming company in the world recently announced a Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano bout, and they somehow managed to top that.

Naturally, you’ll have some interest in betting on Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2. The initial odds are actually pretty interesting, as the near-50-year old Mayweather is a shockingly light favorite, depending on which boxing betting sites you call home.

You could stop there, or you could target a variety of Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao prop bets that surely will drop in the not-too-distant future. But how about we get really weird with it?

There’s going to be plenty of bets worth targeting for this bout, and we’ll go over it as the fight draws closer, but how about some wild props that probably won’t be made available (but totally should)? I’ve crafted 10 that pop off the page, and maybe, just maybe, there’s a sportsbook out there that has the stones to list them.

Will Anyone Bleed in Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2?

You’ll definitely see Mayweather vs. Pacquiao props that involve the basics like knockdowns, method of victory, punches landed, and so on. But a fun Mayweather vs. Pacquiao prop would be if we can wager on whether one of them ended up bleeding.

It sounds a tad gross, and some might even find it vulgar, but this is a combat sport.

We’re literally getting excited about two old dudes smacking each other around. Some blood may be spilled here, and it only makes sense for us to be able to bet on it.

Perhaps we could even get granular with these bets and wager on how or where they bleed. The most likely avenues involve the mouth and face, which ties into any Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 bets that ask if either fighter will get cut.

Will Either Fighter Try to Bite the Other?

This is an extension or branch-off from my first Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 prop bet, but considering this has literally happened in a professional boxing match before, it has to be asked.

Sorry to keep bringing it up, Mike Tyson, but it’s a thing in the boxing world.

It’s unlikely to happen, of course, but Floyd Mayweather has never lost a professional bout, and Manny could understandably get frustrated with his elite defense and tendency to make fights fairly boring.

If Mayweather feels pressured in a fight he’s losing, or Manny panics when he can’t inflict damage, could either of them snap and go full Iron Mike? I doubt it, but the odds for this Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 prop would be astronomical.

Over/Under for How Long the Netflix Stream Crashes

Netflix’s launch in the boxing realm hasn’t always been perfect. If you’ve taken in any of the Jake Paul fights or their other boxing matches, you know the live stream can lag and even glitch.

It isn’t necessarily a testament to Netflix having bad technology or not knowing what they’re doing. It’s more about their bandwidth and the sheer volume they’re undertaking for massive fights such as these.

Not sure if it’s a big deal due to the age of these fighters? Think again. Just look at the top 5 highest-grossing PPVs in boxing history:

Translation? Money Mayweather is a huge draw. The crazy part? We are no longer dealing with a PPV platform. Netflix is much cheaper, and people get the benefit of paying one low monthly rate to get access to this fight and so much more.

In other words, people are going to subscribe to Netflix in droves and this fight could shatter viewing records. Even if it doesn’t, it’s going to garner loads of hype and draw plenty of viewership, which could very easily lead to Netflix’s buffering running into some major issues.

Will a Current or Former U.S. President by Shown During the Broadcast?

This is a fun Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao prop bet simply because it’s a bit silly, but also not crazy for it to happen.

Donald Trump is the current sitting President of the United States and a known fan of combat sports. After all, the guy is literally hosting a marquee UFC event at the White House.

Trump has been known to frequent UFC events even during his presidency, as he has made appearances at UFC 316 and UFC 314, both of which went down in 2025.

That love for fighting doesn’t stop with MMA. Trump has a history of attending and even hosting boxing matches, and he even took in the fight between Evander Holyfield and Vitor Belfort in 2021.

Can Trump turn down a fight this big? It stands to reason that he’d at least consider attending a once in a lifetime fight, but the best part is a prop bet like this could include other U.S. Presidents.

That list is obviously pretty short, but this prop would also include former POTUS Barack Obama, who greeted Manny Pacquiao in the White House and is a known fan of boxing.

Will Either Fighter Be Disqualified for Cheating?

Tyson Fury is one big name in the world of boxing that has been at least accused of cheating before, and athletes do crazy things in the name of winning all the time.

Whether it’s doping, putting weights in boxing gloves, putting “sticky stuff” on balls, deflating footballs, or what have you, everyone is at least tempted to cut corners at some point.

What that act of cheating would be is open for debate. But both fighters absolutely would have enough incentive to try to give themselves an unfair advantage.

Assuming the final outcome isn’t already predetermined, Mayweather could want protection to ensure he stays undefeated, while Pacquiao could want an extra edge to accomplish the impossible.

Will a Fan Interrupt the Fight by Entering the Ring?

There will be tons of Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 props to pick from, but these crazy bets are the ones that often draw the most interest. The main reason is that they are fun, but they also offer alluring odds.

So alluring, in fact, that some people might consider actually betting on themselves to do it:

Even if it’s unlikely, betting on whether a fan will enter the ring or not is easily one of the more intriguing Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 props that sportsbooks could offer. Why? Because fan interruption and even full-blown streakers have been part of sports for forever.

What makes this prop even more interesting is the fact that this is a live-streamed event and the entire world will be watching. Some type of fan interruption, however unlikely, would be a viral clip waiting to happen.

Will a Ring Girl Trend More Than the Actual Fight?

You’ll have to keep close tabs on your social media for this one, but we have seen ring girls go crazy viral on Twitter and other platforms in the past.

Depending on who the ring girls end up being, how much Netflix showcases them live, and how the fight is going, this is something that is very possible.

Social media often focuses on things outside the event itself, and anyone or anything that is front and center during the live stream is in play.

You may want to get into specifics with this bet, whether it be which exact social media the ring girl would have to “win” in terms of trending, and for how long.

Will Drake Place a Publicly Confirmed Bet on Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2?

There isn’t a more notorious sports bettor than famed musician Drake. Whether he desires to have his placed bets made public or not, they seem to always get out.

Drake’s bets often don’t work out, but win or lose, they add theatrics to any sporting event he targets. We saw it at Super Bowl 60 with a massive bet, after all.

Here’s top hoping any Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 bets Drake places turn out a little bit better, but given his history of huge wagers and interest in marquee events, I wouldn’t rule this one out at all.

Will Either Fighter’s Walkout Music Feature Music from a Grammy-Winner?

This is an interesting bet, simply because both of these guys are going to walk out to some music being played.

Floyd Mayweather tends to lean into his “Money” persona, while he’s actually had live performers accompany him in his journey to the ring, with artists such as Lil Wayne and T.I. being featured in the past.

Pacquiao tends to be a tad more reserved and less flashy. His walkout song is a little bit more predictable, with Eye of the Tiger by Survivor being his most popular choice. He’s also walked out to his own song, Lalaban Ako Para Sa Filipino.

You can consider betting on a specific song these guys have previously walked out to, or perhaps sportsbooks will let you take it a step further and bet on whether or not they’ll walk out to a Grammy-winning artist’s music.

Will Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 Be Revealed to Be Rigged Live?

Fans and bettors talk about sports being rigged all the time. There’s no denying that corruption exists in all walks of life, and some of Jake Paul’s promotions in particular have been on the sketchier side.

When you add betting to the mix, things get messy in a hurry. And with today’s social media reach, anyone can spot something crazy from the comfort of their couch and reveal it to the masses.

The how and why aren’t easy to gauge ahead of this bout, but the possibility remains that this bout could be tainted. The question is that if it does end up being rigged, could it be spotted and pointed out while it’s still going on live.

Betting on Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 Props

This is probably the last time we’ll ever see Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao. Heck, this could be the final boxing match either of these guys partakes in.

These guys aren’t getting any younger, and the money will never be greener for this showdown than it is right now. Neither will the public interest.

Still, everyone wants to see Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2, and they’re going to get it, so you might as well lay some money down on this fight – and consider some crazy prop bets in the process. You’ll be sure to find some good ones at the top online sportsbooks.

I’d definitely suggest focusing much of your interest on Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 bets that are likely to happen, but it’s fun to think about some wild wagers that could be offered.