10 Wild Prop Bets We Want to See for Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2

Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 is officially on. The rematch that has been a decade in the making will go down on Netflix on September 19th.

It sure seems like Netflix is dominating out there, folks. The top streaming company in the world recently announced a Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano bout, and they somehow managed to top that.

Naturally, you’ll have some interest in betting on Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2. The initial odds are actually pretty interesting, as the near-50-year old Mayweather is a shockingly light favorite, depending on which boxing betting sites you call home.

You could stop there, or you could target a variety of Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao prop bets that surely will drop in the not-too-distant future. But how about we get really weird with it?

There’s going to be plenty of bets worth targeting for this bout, and we’ll go over it as the fight draws closer, but how about some wild props that probably won’t be made available (but totally should)? I’ve crafted 10 that pop off the page, and maybe, just maybe, there’s a sportsbook out there that has the stones to list them.

Will Anyone Bleed in Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2?

You’ll definitely see Mayweather vs. Pacquiao props that involve the basics like knockdowns, method of victory, punches landed, and so on. But a fun Mayweather vs. Pacquiao prop would be if we can wager on whether one of them ended up bleeding.

It sounds a tad gross, and some might even find it vulgar, but this is a combat sport.

We’re literally getting excited about two old dudes smacking each other around. Some blood may be spilled here, and it only makes sense for us to be able to bet on it.

Perhaps we could even get granular with these bets and wager on how or where they bleed. The most likely avenues involve the mouth and face, which ties into any Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 bets that ask if either fighter will get cut.

Will Either Fighter Try to Bite the Other?

This is an extension or branch-off from my first Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 prop bet, but considering this has literally happened in a professional boxing match before, it has to be asked.

Sorry to keep bringing it up, Mike Tyson, but it’s a thing in the boxing world.

It’s unlikely to happen, of course, but Floyd Mayweather has never lost a professional bout, and Manny could understandably get frustrated with his elite defense and tendency to make fights fairly boring.

If Mayweather feels pressured in a fight he’s losing, or Manny panics when he can’t inflict damage, could either of them snap and go full Iron Mike? I doubt it, but the odds for this Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 prop would be astronomical.

Over/Under for How Long the Netflix Stream Crashes

Netflix’s launch in the boxing realm hasn’t always been perfect. If you’ve taken in any of the Jake Paul fights or their other boxing matches, you know the live stream can lag and even glitch.

It isn’t necessarily a testament to Netflix having bad technology or not knowing what they’re doing. It’s more about their bandwidth and the sheer volume they’re undertaking for massive fights such as these.

Not sure if it’s a big deal due to the age of these fighters? Think again. Just look at the top 5 highest-grossing PPVs in boxing history:

Translation? Money Mayweather is a huge draw. The crazy part? We are no longer dealing with a PPV platform. Netflix is much cheaper, and people get the benefit of paying one low monthly rate to get access to this fight and so much more.

In other words, people are going to subscribe to Netflix in droves and this fight could shatter viewing records. Even if it doesn’t, it’s going to garner loads of hype and draw plenty of viewership, which could very easily lead to Netflix’s buffering running into some major issues.

Will a Current or Former U.S. President by Shown During the Broadcast?

This is a fun Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao prop bet simply because it’s a bit silly, but also not crazy for it to happen.

Donald Trump is the current sitting President of the United States and a known fan of combat sports. After all, the guy is literally hosting a marquee UFC event at the White House.

Trump has been known to frequent UFC events even during his presidency, as he has made appearances at UFC 316 and UFC 314, both of which went down in 2025.

That love for fighting doesn’t stop with MMA. Trump has a history of attending and even hosting boxing matches, and he even took in the fight between Evander Holyfield and Vitor Belfort in 2021.

Can Trump turn down a fight this big? It stands to reason that he’d at least consider attending a once in a lifetime fight, but the best part is a prop bet like this could include other U.S. Presidents.

That list is obviously pretty short, but this prop would also include former POTUS Barack Obama, who greeted Manny Pacquiao in the White House and is a known fan of boxing.

Will Either Fighter Be Disqualified for Cheating?

Tyson Fury is one big name in the world of boxing that has been at least accused of cheating before, and athletes do crazy things in the name of winning all the time.

Whether it’s doping, putting weights in boxing gloves, putting “sticky stuff” on balls, deflating footballs, or what have you, everyone is at least tempted to cut corners at some point.

What that act of cheating would be is open for debate. But both fighters absolutely would have enough incentive to try to give themselves an unfair advantage.

Assuming the final outcome isn’t already predetermined, Mayweather could want protection to ensure he stays undefeated, while Pacquiao could want an extra edge to accomplish the impossible.

Will a Fan Interrupt the Fight by Entering the Ring?

There will be tons of Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 props to pick from, but these crazy bets are the ones that often draw the most interest. The main reason is that they are fun, but they also offer alluring odds.

So alluring, in fact, that some people might consider actually betting on themselves to do it:

Even if it’s unlikely, betting on whether a fan will enter the ring or not is easily one of the more intriguing Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 props that sportsbooks could offer. Why? Because fan interruption and even full-blown streakers have been part of sports for forever.

What makes this prop even more interesting is the fact that this is a live-streamed event and the entire world will be watching. Some type of fan interruption, however unlikely, would be a viral clip waiting to happen.

Will a Ring Girl Trend More Than the Actual Fight?

You’ll have to keep close tabs on your social media for this one, but we have seen ring girls go crazy viral on Twitter and other platforms in the past.

Depending on who the ring girls end up being, how much Netflix showcases them live, and how the fight is going, this is something that is very possible.

Social media often focuses on things outside the event itself, and anyone or anything that is front and center during the live stream is in play.

You may want to get into specifics with this bet, whether it be which exact social media the ring girl would have to “win” in terms of trending, and for how long.

Will Drake Place a Publicly Confirmed Bet on Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2?

There isn’t a more notorious sports bettor than famed musician Drake. Whether he desires to have his placed bets made public or not, they seem to always get out.

Drake’s bets often don’t work out, but win or lose, they add theatrics to any sporting event he targets. We saw it at Super Bowl 60 with a massive bet, after all.

Here’s top hoping any Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 bets Drake places turn out a little bit better, but given his history of huge wagers and interest in marquee events, I wouldn’t rule this one out at all.

Will Either Fighter’s Walkout Music Feature Music from a Grammy-Winner?

This is an interesting bet, simply because both of these guys are going to walk out to some music being played.

Floyd Mayweather tends to lean into his “Money” persona, while he’s actually had live performers accompany him in his journey to the ring, with artists such as Lil Wayne and T.I. being featured in the past.

Pacquiao tends to be a tad more reserved and less flashy. His walkout song is a little bit more predictable, with Eye of the Tiger by Survivor being his most popular choice. He’s also walked out to his own song, Lalaban Ako Para Sa Filipino.

You can consider betting on a specific song these guys have previously walked out to, or perhaps sportsbooks will let you take it a step further and bet on whether or not they’ll walk out to a Grammy-winning artist’s music.

Will Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 Be Revealed to Be Rigged Live?

Fans and bettors talk about sports being rigged all the time. There’s no denying that corruption exists in all walks of life, and some of Jake Paul’s promotions in particular have been on the sketchier side.

When you add betting to the mix, things get messy in a hurry. And with today’s social media reach, anyone can spot something crazy from the comfort of their couch and reveal it to the masses.

The how and why aren’t easy to gauge ahead of this bout, but the possibility remains that this bout could be tainted. The question is that if it does end up being rigged, could it be spotted and pointed out while it’s still going on live.

Betting on Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 Props

This is probably the last time we’ll ever see Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao. Heck, this could be the final boxing match either of these guys partakes in.

These guys aren’t getting any younger, and the money will never be greener for this showdown than it is right now. Neither will the public interest.

Still, everyone wants to see Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2, and they’re going to get it, so you might as well lay some money down on this fight – and consider some crazy prop bets in the process. You’ll be sure to find some good ones at the top online sportsbooks.

I’d definitely suggest focusing much of your interest on Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 bets that are likely to happen, but it’s fun to think about some wild wagers that could be offered.

When Will Humans Go to Mars? Betting Odds, Timeline Predictions & Prediction Market Forecasts

Elon Musk isn’t for everyone. Like him or not, however, the owner of X has been on the “humans to Mars” hype train for years. And he’s been louder than most. He and others believe we could land humans on Mars by the year 2031.

The incentive is open for debate. Some think Earth has an expiration date. At some point in the future, we may not have the option of hanging around and hoping things get better. Naturally, that could create extra emphasis and urgency for getting humans to Mars, seeing as it’s the only planet near us that seems remotely habitable.

Musk isn’t alone in his dream of life on Mars, of course. Government agencies, fellow billionaires, and private entities are all in the race to finalize a plan to get human life on Mars in a permanent fashion.

Something that was previously pure science fiction is slowly morphing into a reality. And it’s something you can bet on and trade on in prediction markets. For the first time in history, it’s not if humans will reach Mars, it’s more about when.

When that day comes, you don’t have to just drop your jaw in amazement. You could be celebrating as you fill your pockets with cash.

Why Mars is the Ultimate Prediction Market Event

This is a fantastic prediction market to bet on simply because it has a binary outcome. Depending on the market you’re targeting, you’re dealing with finite dates or results.

I.e., humans need to be on Mars, or they don’t, and/or they need to get there by a specific date. If you bet on it happening and it does, you win. If it doesn’t, you lose.

Another key factor making this a terrific prediction marketing worth tapping into? Time is on your side. Whether the wager is relatively open-ended or has a date far out (some are at 2035 or later), you can sit back, relax, and hope the powers that be are expediting their plan to get humans on Mars.

One more thing to keep in mind is the fact that Mars rumors and news can greatly sway how the market reacts. With every Musk quote that says we’re getting closer, the odds look better for people to reach Mars. And anytime opposing scientists express doubt, you could see the odds against it happening inflate.

Why this market is a hit:

• Clear and transparent milestones
• Public verification
• Long-term speculation
• Multiple credible actors

Who Wants Humans to Get to Mars?

Motivation is key in any betting market. With this one, you might want to know which people or entities – especially ones that have an actual say – want to see this mission a success (and fast).

NASA and the Artemis Program

NASA is admittedly presently focused on the Moon through its Artemis program, but that is actually designed to help with future expeditions such as the proposed Mars journey.

This is one entity that is already knee-deep in turning over every necessary stone to ensure a successful trip to Mars is something that can actually be done.

That involves the following:

• Testing life support systems for deep space travel
• Developing long-duration modules for human habitation
• Building sustainable launch and return mechanisms
• Studying radiation exposure beyond what has been traveled

The Moon is as far as any human has gone, but continued research and testing with it as a main catalyst can go a long way in readying humans for a Mars trip.

International Collaboration

While NASA has its own ideas, the journey to Mars isn’t just an idea people from the United States came up with. The whole world has eyes on humans heading to Mars, and as you’d imagine, not everyone sees things – or timelines – the same.

Along with NASA, the following entities are working hard to map out a Mars trip that ends successfully:

• European Space Agency
• Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
• Canadian Space Agency

Each of these are working together with NASA on the development of lunar infrastructure that could be the bones behind any operation involving humans going to Mars.

Of course, international programs tend to check every box, and sometimes they check them again. This can slow down testing and development, as election cycles, budget approvals, geopolitical priorities, and so much more can work together to impede actual progress.

Private Space Companies

SpaceX has the luxury of private funding and the mission to Mars being their sole objective.

That means funding, influence, testing, and timelines aren’t going to be nearly as disruptive for them as it may be for NASA or more official entities that have a say in space travel.

Starship, as a fully reusable launch system that SpaceX has begun developing, promises to answer a lot of the questions a mission to Mars presents.

In theory, it takes care of major dilemmas that NASA presently hasn’t provided answers to:

• The ability to carry large crews
• Transporting cargo for settlement infrastructure
• Enabling in-orbit refueling
• Supporting interplanetary travel at scale

The big difference? SpaceX has a grander perspective on a mission to Mars. It doesn’t just want to get there and look around; it wants to colonize there.

Mars isn’t viewed as just a scientific expedition. It’s a very real final destination in the eyes of tech moguls like Elon Musk, who see Mars as the ultimate answer to Earth’s undying problems.

The Difference in Mars Travel Timelines

It’s important to compare entities like NASA and SpaceX because motivations and systemic operations are inherently very different. That doesn’t necessarily mean one can’t make it to Mars faster, but they both come out of this debate with their own red flags.

Here’s a quick breakdown of how they differentiate:

If you’re looking to bet on when humans will finally get to Mars, you may need to pick a side as far as who you think gets there first.

Betting on a short-term outcome means you’re backing the Elon Musks of the world. This means you’re not trusting in more established entities such as NASA, and hoping companies with big money and a tolerance for risk seize the day.

Major Obstacles Between Humans & Mars

Even if everyone gets on the same page, the mission to Mars still has some pretty glaring obstacles it’ll need to overcome.

Here’s a quick rundown of some snags that may not be so easy to work around:

None of this is to say the people calling the shots can’t slowly check these things off with concrete solutions, but there is no denying they’re a big part of why any trip involving humans to Mars keeps getting pushed back.

When Do Experts Think Humans Will Land on Mars?

There are a lot of people who have established respected careers in aviation, space travel, and science in general. There are also outsiders who have done their fair share of research.

If you poll them all, most will opt for a more conservative estimate when trying to predict when humans will get to Mars.

That projected timeline is a spectrum, and it’s difficult to gauge how much of an “in between” there actually is. All things considered, conservative projections suggest a Mars trip could be practical somewhere between 2040 and 2050, while those with a more aggressive mindset think we’re less than a decade away (2035 or sooner).

Naturally, as detailed, this is the classic timeline duel between government-led missions and those of the private sector variety.

Things that could flip the script:

• Breakthrough propulsion
• AI-driven mission planning
• Major geopolitical shifts

What it would be or look like is unknown, but major advancements in technology that could reduce transit time would obviously make planning this mission a lot easier.

The explosion of artificial intelligence (AI) could also expedite the process. From autonomous system management to real-time failure mitigation, leaning on more than just the human brain might be the ticket to getting to Mars a lot quicker.

Additionally, some type of combination of funding and political backing could push a trip to Mars to the forefront of the world’s priorities. Whether it be a renewed “space race” or collaborative effort to thwart off a threat to Earth and humankind, however, remains to be seen.

How Betting on Mars Timelines Actually Works

It wasn’t that long ago that betting on a mission to Mars felt like a joke. It’s slowly becoming very real, however, to the point where it really is a matter of “when” and not “if”.

With the timeline being the biggest concern to bettors, you can get serious about placing a bet, whether you do so at a regular online sportsbook or prediction market sites.

Here’s a quick look at how to do that:

Event Contracts vs. Traditional Sportsbooks

Prediction markets do feel awfully similar to sportsbooks, except you’re not betting against the house. You’re still betting on whether an outcome will happen or not. In this case, you’re betting on when people will get to Mars, or if it will happen in the first place.

The first wager is a classic yes or no bet, which you can find at any sports betting sites just as well as prediction market sites.

Sportsbooks will also usually offer the second option, which can be extended beyond just two bets. Depending on the site you bet at, you might be able to choose between any number of date timelines.

Of course, the big difference with prediction markets is you’re not necessarily betting, you’re trading event contracts. These are financial positions tied to real-life outcomes and the framework of the proposed market.

Event Contracts You Might See

• Humans land on Mars by 2035
• Crewed Mars mission launches by 2030
• Permanent human habitat on Mars by 2045
• Private company reaches Mars before government agency

The options are endless, and the exact pricing on sportsbooks can vary. But with prediction markets, the trading is treated a little differently.

Let’s use the “yes or no” market of humans landing on Mars within a given timeline. Here’s how that would look:

This is just an example, but let’s say the “yes” side is trading at $0.38 and the “no” side is trading at $0.62. This means you can buy a “yes” share at 38 cents, and if you’re right, it settles at $1. If they don’t, it settles at $0.

The big difference is that pricing equates to implied probability. Contract prices reflect what the market appears to believe is the most probable outcome at hand.

Ipso facto, the “yes” side suggests there is a 38% chance of humans landing on Mars by 2035.

Fluctuation is firmly in play here, so being able to adapt and project is key.

How Traders Analyze Mars Event Contracts

Just like any other betting or prediction market, you need to keep your eye on the ball. No respectable professional sports bettor would suggest to lay money down on a sport you know nothing about. The same goes for prediction markets and trading.

Naturally, research is key. You’ll want to monitor all of these:

• Follow launch milestones
• Monitor test failures vs. successes
• Keep an eye on budget approvals
• Listen to space travel language during political cycles
• Consider public statements vs. actual engineering progress

It’s a lot to take in, but it’s unfortunately just the bare minimum. Having a solid understanding of just how realistic certain timelines are is key for this particular market, as well as being informed about the various obstacles that could lead to extensive delays.

Risks, Delays, and “Black Swan” Events

On top of analyzing what is somewhat in front of you or even in your control to a degree, there’s always the great unknown.

Momentum can shift in prediction markets for a variety of reasons, but something like the mission to Mars is easier to see getting delayed based on real-time priorities.

For example, if World War III pops up out of nowhere, we’re all going to be more than just a little bit distracted. Priorities would shift, and something of that magnitude would cause at least a mild delay, if not an indefinite one.

That’s an extreme circumstance, but there are many situations that could arise that could magnify certain risks, cause extensive delays, or completely eradicate the trip to Mars altogether.

Something akin to WW3 would qualify for the latter, while literally anything that nobody could predict could disrupt regular projections. Things like political assassinations, violent weather changes, a COVID-level outbreak, threats to the planet, or even the unlikely event of an alien invasion could delay or even potentially permanently interrupt this market.

More realistic issues include:

• Catastrophic launch failures
• Loss of funding
• Global conflict
• Economic downturns
• Regulatory pushback

Some of these could still be filed with the more extreme examples above, but they’re also entirely realistic. Launch failures have gone poorly with much simpler expeditions, budget cuts can and do happen, and there’s conflict across the world every single day.

Economic downturns are no strangers to the history books, either, while high-up decision-makers could delay government progress or even step in and try to prevent private companies from “beating them” to the punch.

Why Long-Term Prediction Markets Like This Attract Sharp Bettors

Betting on a mission to Mars seems silly. However, once you realize it’s actually a reachable goal, you’ll quickly understand the value in betting on it happening.

The key is to find the right market and to know when to strike. Timing is a big piece to the puzzle, but sharp bettors live for these types of markets due to a lack of personal bias, low emotional pull, a slow-moving market, information that is readily available, and a ticking clock for all parties involved.

On top of that, as the bettor, you can take your time by trying to meet the conservatives and extremists somewhere in the middle.

Mission to Mars vs. Other Future Bets

What makes betting on people going to Mars any different or better than other future bets? It depends on who you ask and which bets you’re targeting. However, given the fact that a mission to Mars has many very different entities backing it (and benefiting), it might have more legs than you’d think.

Here’s how it compares against some other big future markets:

The message should be relatively clear; Mars contracts operate more like venture-style moonshots, while traditional event-based markets tend to be tied down by policy decisions, elections, and slow technological advancement.

Does this make the Mars market better than the others? Not necessarily, but it definitely makes it very different. If you can play the long game and make the right bet, they undeniably can be one of the better prediction markets to target.

Is Betting on When Humans Go to Mars Worth It?

This isn’t your regular prediction market or sports betting wager. This bet is fundamentally less about guessing an outcome and more about assigning probability to an inevitable technological frontier.

When someone says “the writing is on the wall”, this is the type of thing they’re talking about. Delays can and will happen, and there are obstacles to overcome, but every major breakthrough seemed impossible until it was staring us in the face.

Mars markets represent one of the clearest signs that prediction platforms are evolving beyond regular betting as we know it. They reward patience, forward thinking, information harvesting, and the willingness to engage and project with uncertainty at scale.

The Red Planet may be millions of miles away, but getting there won’t take millions, thousands, or even hundreds of years. And if you can read the tea leaves and figure out precisely the other shoe drops, you can benefit immensely.

Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano on Netflix: Would This Super Fight Be Good or Bad for MMA?

Jake Paul strikes again. Shortly after drawing everyone in with insane boxing matches against Mike Tyson and Anthony Joshua, the YouTube star-turned fight promoter is behind one of the most epic MMA matches of all time.

And it’s coming to Netflix, giving the streaming giant its first taste of professional MMA on their burgeoning platform.

That’s right, perhaps the most highly anticipated female MMA match of all-time – Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano – is actually happening. The two aging mixed martial artists are getting back in the ring to take each other on, doing something the UFC never managed to do: give the masses the MMA battle of their dreams.

But a Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano fight potentially raises more questions than answers. Is this good for MMA? Is this a fight that we actually need to see? Instead of deciding who will win just yet, let’s explore the optics of this legendary showdown, why it’s good, why it’s bad, and whether it’ll even happen.

The Rumored Rousey vs. Carano Netflix Super Fight Explained

So, what am I even talking about? Well, if you haven’t heard, it was recently announced – seemingly out of nowhere – that a showdown between UFC legend Ronda Rousey and former Strikeforce and Elite XC star Gina Carano will face off in a massive Netflix MMA match this May.

The fight is a head-scratcher in some ways, but it’s a home run for Netflix, which has successfully tossed its hat into the ring when it comes to live-streaming big sporting events.

Already dipping their toe in with the WWE, boxing, and NFL Christmas Day games, a huge MMA showdown was something that was only a matter of time.

You wouldn’t be totally wrong if you quickly filed this under “shameless celebrity bout”, but these are two of the biggest female MMA stars the sport has ever seen. When it comes to prize fighters and blockbuster bouts, this is about as big as it gets.

Why Rousey vs. Carano is a Legitimate Cultural Event

Some will roll their eyes and shrug this off as another cheap ploy to get Netflix subscribers and a bunch of views.

They will be partially right, as those things will surely happen thanks to the news of this epic super fight, but this bout is actually pretty special.

Two of the Biggest Female Stars in Combat Sports History

Stardom is something that is tough to put your finger on at times, but it’s also very difficult to replicate. Rousey is seen as one of the greatest UFC champions of all-time, while Carano’s hype and star power is undeniable.

Does one have more legit substance than the other? Probably, but Rousey has a little bit of both. From her dominant run as a UFC champ to her bold interviews, Olympic success, and WWE stardom, few can dominate the camera as well as Rousey can.

That goes for Carano, too. The 43-year-old is past her prime as a fighter, but she only had one loss when she fought professionally, and she turned her toughness, looks, and charm into a successful Hollywood career.

It wasn’t one that failed to endure controversy, but Carano was part of huge franchises like Deadpool and The Mandalorian, while she even performed the vast majority of her own stunts in the adrenaline-rich Haywire.

This Fight Brings in New (and Old) MMA Fans

The cool thing about true star power is it can bring in the masses. Even if it’s fans who don’t like a certain sport. Or maybe they used to and left it behind.

There are many layers to this when it comes to a Rousey vs. Carano bout. For one, you have the old MMA fans who gave it up after Rousey’s mystique disappeared. Or you have the loyal Carano followers who have been waiting for her to fight again one last time.

A group of MMA fans that have been hoping and praying for a Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano fight also exists. There are the loyal WWE fans of Rousey who will gladly tune in to see her fight again, while there are the TV and movie fans who have warmed up to Carano’s characters over the last 16 years.

One way or another, a Rousey vs. Carano bout expands the sport’s reach. Old fans return, and the light from this fight’s fire draws new fans in.

Jake Paul Fight Model 2.0

You don’t need to be a fan of Jake Paul to give him credit. He was a YouTuber and little more, but he built himself up into something that was tough to quantify or appropriately value.

The question has never really been whether or not he is a legit boxer (he’s actually not that bad, by the way). It’s always been about how far can he take his stardom?

Maybe he knows he’s maxed himself out, and this is the next level. Celebrity boxing fights are one thing, but taking established legitimate fighters – even if they’re well past their prime – and giving fans fights they’d otherwise never have gotten? That lives on forever.

The Case FOR This Fight Being Good for MMA

Some of the points broken down above apply here, but there’s more baked into this narrative. Sure, there is some bad that goes into a big fight between aging stars like this, but there’s also a lot of good.

Here are the key points that should have MMA fans in favor of this Rousey vs. Carano fight:

The Case AGAINST It Being Good for MMA

As I mentioned before, there’s definitely a downside to Rousey vs. Carano and similar super fights. Here’s a quick breakdown as to why this type of fight could be bad for MMA:

The Future of MMA Fighters as Free Agents

We might be getting ahead of ourselves, but think of it this way: Rousey and Carano aren’t under contract with a fighting promotion. Heck, neither of them have fought in a decade.

But here they are, negotiating with Netflix to do this insane fight that nobody thought would ever get done.

It could be a one-off, or it could be the start of a brand new future when it comes to how MMA fighters get paid.

Right now, even the best of fighters need a place to call home. They need to stay inside the lies and tiptoe around house rules to make sure they get paid. Even then, contracts can be broken and unless you’re winning at a high level, the money isn’t always worth the sacrifice.

Not everyone can be a prize fighter like Rousey and Carano, but big fights like this could set a tone; the control is actually in your hands if you reach a certain level in MMA fighting.

Impact on Fighting Aesthetics

Another thing to consider is how this type of thinking (and compensation) could influence how fighters operate.

For instance, there are a plethora of sensational fighters in terms of production. Just look at strong grapplers, wrestlers, and/or submission gurus. These fighters are terrors on the mat, they can score takedowns with ease, and they can negate major striking advantages the opposition may have.

Naturally, this could have a greater emphasis on striking, fighters looking for big finishes, and fighters taking on as many fights as they can handle to prove their worth and get noticed more.

Rousey is actually living proof that this doesn’t have to be true, though. It’s all about brand recognition and staying power. Early reports suggest people still care about these two fighters, and in particular want to see them fight each other.

One way or another, though, fighters need to find a way to reach that level before they can take full advantage. Might that convince them to change the way they train and fight?

Is the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Fight Good or Bad for MMA?

It’s fair to wonder if Rousey vs. Carano will actually even happen. Jake Paul’s promotion company tends to live up to the hype in terms of getting a pitched fight to the canvas, though, so the next big question is what this does for the future of MMA.

There’s no doubt about it, it could change it. It’s more nuanced than just being fully good or completely bad, though. There are positives and negatives, while you also need to look at MMA from a short-term and long-term lens.

• In the short-term, this should lead to massive growth for the sport. Getting this fight in general is going to draw in old viewers and create new ones. Putting it on one of the biggest platforms in the world guarantees eyes will be on it, too.
• Long-term, there are questions that need to be answered. Could this slowly push us to a more watered-down product that is high on flash but low on substance? Could it be the beginning of the end for marquee promotions such as UFC, and/or change how fighters get paid?

To all of that, I say “maybe”.

But there’s risk to everything. In the here and now, MMA fans get a marquee event that nobody thought was possible. It has massive star power, branding, and insane reach. If the actual product can be remotely decent, we could very well be looking at the dawn of an entirely new age in professional MMA.

Why Prediction Markets Scare Regulators

Prediction markets are here to take over the world. Not really, but there should be a prediction market for that very thought. Even if it’s silly, regulators would probably still fear the potential of it becoming true.

In all seriousness, prediction markets are a problem area for regulators. This isn’t just sports betting. Rather, prediction markets turn beliefs or opinions about actual real-life events into tradeable prices.

This can effectively operate as a public information alarm. The downside in the eyes of regulators? It can go against official narratives in elections, for policy, and so much more, while also potentially manipulating incentives and blurring lines between gambling, investing, and global decision-making.

A quick buck for a sharp prediction bettor just might burn the world down. Not really, but regulators are already fearing the worst – and they have (some) reason to.

The Core Problem: Markets Predict Better than Institutions

If you’re an institution, it’s a bad look when markets predict outcomes more accurately than you do. It doesn’t happen every time, but it’s happening with enough regularity for people to start taking notice.

Things like expert panels, polls, and forecasting models aren’t as accurate as they used to be. And there’s a simple reason for that. Having a wrong opinion doesn’t cost you anything inherently, but wrong prices can absolutely cost you money.

Naturally, when market price contradicts messages from the top, credibility is questioned:

• Market is right = institution is out of touch
• Market is wrong = institution is weak for suppressing it
• No matter what, authority becomes fragile and is questioned

Prediction markets aren’t just earning people money. They are (at least sometimes) potentially swaying real-world issues and undermining massive institutions in the process.

Even if this isn’t happening consistently at a high level, the belief that it’s happening at all raises major concern for the people and entities it impacts the most.

What Prediction Markets Actually Are

New to prediction markets? Perhaps I should have led with what they were before shoving an institutional fear down your throat. No matter, they’re simple to define and even easier to comprehend:

Prediction markets, by definition, are event-based contracts that resolve on real-world outcomes.

They have binary or range-based pricing tied to probability, not just someone’s opinion. You can find most of the top markets at popular prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Put simply, you can do more than just predict the future; you can profit from it. Virtually anything that can or will happen in the real world has a price, and you get to decide what the price is, how likely something is, and whether you think it will happen.

The Official Regulatory Objections (And Why They’re Incomplete)

Prediction markets sound pretty great, am I right? In theory, sure, but not everyone is a fan, and there are pitfalls to be aware of for both consumers and outside entities alike.

Here’s what regulators dislike about them the most:

1. Consumer protection
2. Market manipulation
3. Election interference

The first fear is that consumers are not properly protected and that they can be exposed to financial harm, gambling addiction, or even deceptive products. This risk isn’t new or any different than regular sports betting or general gambling, however.

Mark manipulation is another fear from regulators, as bad actors could distort prices to the point where they mislead participants or deliver false signals. Given the fact that prediction markets are often interpreted as the truth, the potential manipulation of markets and consumers exists.

Additionally, election-related markets could possibly impact voter behavior. This can create erroneous narratives, enable foreign interference, or simply disrupt the election process altogether. Regulators are concerned market odds could be confused as official forecasts or misused as political messaging tools.

Why These Explanations Don’t Hold Up

The easiest rebuttal to this is that prediction markets aren’t much different than regular gambling. Whether you bet on a sporting event or pull a lever on a slot, you’re assuming risk, whether it be financial or emotional.

Market manipulation also already exists in the form of equities, crypto, the media, and even polling. Social media and other platforms can sway voters just as easily as a prediction market can, if not more so.

The Real Fears from Regulators

There are the public concerns regulators have, and then there are the real fears they have internally. Here’s what they’re actually worried about.

Why Political Markets Trigger the Most Pushback

Regulators don’t care about what sports team you bet on or how much you win at the slot machine. But they do care how your opinion or prediction market wagering can impact things that actually matter.

Things like elections, which lead to law changes, state and federal shakeups, and a great fluctuation when it comes to the balance of power.

Elections morph from a 50/50 toss-up to high-stakes prediction contracts. Markets price outcomes before votes are counted, which can show where everyone is leaning – or more importantly, influence where they should go – before the votes are ever cast.

This can shape perception, undermine legitimacy narratives, and lead to market manipulation. Suddenly, your vote and what laws get passed are truly in the power of your hands, and that isn’t necessarily what the regulators actually want.

The CFTC Gray Zone Problem

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exists to regulate derivatives tied to commodities, interest rates, and financial risk. Markets that price human beliefs or social outcomes aren’t part of the plan.

Prediction markets float around somewhere between financial instruments and informational tools, making them tough to label under existing statutory authority.

Due to this, regulatory insight becomes erratic at best. Rather than clearly defined rules, platforms are subjected to informal guidance, no-action letters, or conditional approvals without much of a heads-up.

The result? Regulation ambiguity. That isn’t a spot regulators are comfortable with.

Why Regulators Prefer Polls Over Markets

Regulators love a good poll. They’re soft, explainable, and easy to deny. They don’t hurt anyone, and they keep the control in the hands of the regulators.

Markets, on the other hand, create hard prices with transparent financial backing. In addition, bad polls can be easily dismissed, while poor market prices can expose systemic blind spots.

It keeps going back to the running theme; regulators like to regulate, and they want to regulate you, your voice, and the outcome of anything you’re attached to. They can’t do that with prediction markets.

Prediction Markets Threaten Control, Not Safety

There’s an argument to be made for and against prediction markets. Not in the eyes of regulators, though.

If you ask them, prediction markets replace authority with probability, they swap narrative for math, and they remove expert opinion and turn to aggregated incentives.

Regulators aren’t afraid of betting. They’re afraid of losing informational dominance. When you use prediction markets, you’re not doing anything that’s less safe than any kind of betting you already enjoy. You’re just partaking in the process of threatening the regulator’s control.

Will We Discover Alien Life by 2035? Odds, Science & Prediction Market Speculation

For thousands of years, humans have looked up at the night sky and wondered the same thing: Are we alone?

That question used to live in philosophy books and science fiction novels. Now it lives in research labs, government briefings… and increasingly, in prediction markets.

We’re no longer just speculating about alien life—we’re building the tools to find it. Space telescopes are analyzing distant atmospheres for biological gases. Robotic probes are studying icy moons hiding oceans beneath their surfaces. Artificial intelligence is scanning the cosmos for patterns no human could detect.

For the first time in history, discovering alien life doesn’t feel impossible. It feels… scheduled. And that changes everything.

Because once something becomes measurable, it becomes tradable. Traders price probabilities. Markets assign odds. And suddenly, one of the biggest questions in human history isn’t just philosophical—it’s financial.

So here’s the real question:

Will we discover alien life by 2035?

And if so… how would you price it today? 🚀

What Would “Discovering Alien Life” Actually Mean?

Before you can price a market like this, you have to define the terms.

“Alien life” sounds dramatic. But in scientific and prediction market terms, it’s much more specific. A market can’t settle on vibes. It needs criteria.

If a contract asked, “Will alien life be discovered by 2035?” the resolution would almost certainly hinge on something measurable and verifiable.

Here’s what would realistically qualify:

A discovery would likely require at least one of the following:

• Confirmed microbial life detected on another planet or moon
• Strong, repeatable biosignatures (like oxygen + methane combinations) in an exoplanet atmosphere
• Fossilized remains of ancient organisms confirmed through peer review
• Official recognition by a major scientific authority such as NASA or a comparable international body

Notice what’s missing.

It doesn’t require:

• Intelligent civilizations
• Radio contact
• UFO sightings
• Government whistleblower testimony

Those are cultural events. Markets need scientific confirmation.

There’s also an important gray area: what if scientists announce “strong evidence” but stop short of definitive proof? That’s where contract wording becomes critical. Prediction markets typically define resolution triggers in advance, often tied to:

• Peer-reviewed publication
• Official press conference
• Named institutional confirmation
• Specific language like “confirmed extraterrestrial biological life”

This is why settlement rules matter so much in long-term scientific markets. The difference between “evidence of possible life” and “confirmed life” could be the difference between a winning and losing ticket.

In short, discovering alien life by 2035 doesn’t mean first contact. It likely means microbes. And that makes the bet far more plausible than most people think.

Why 2035 Is the Sweet Spot for Speculation

2035 isn’t just a random futuristic year that sounds good in a headline.

It sits at the intersection of science timelines, funding cycles, and technological acceleration. In other words, it’s far enough away for major breakthroughs… but close enough to actually price.

Think about how long space missions take. Planning, funding approval, engineering, launch windows, travel time, data analysis—it’s a decade-long pipeline. Many of the missions currently underway or in development are expected to deliver meaningful data within the next 10 years.

That makes 2035 a natural checkpoint.

By then, several key developments will have matured:

• Years of atmospheric data from advanced telescopes analyzing exoplanets
• Expanded Mars sampling programs with deeper geological insight
• Ocean-world exploration progress from moons like Europa and Enceladus
• AI-driven signal analysis improvements scanning massive cosmic datasets
• International collaboration growth, increasing total discovery bandwidth

From a market perspective, 2035 also works because it creates a clean binary contract: discovery by a fixed date, yes or no.

Too short of a window (like 2027) and the probability feels negligible. Too far out (like 2100) and the market becomes difficult to price meaningfully.

2035 lands in the middle. It’s speculative—but not fantasy. And that’s exactly where prediction markets thrive.

The Science That Makes This Bet Legitimate

At first glance, betting on alien life sounds like science fiction.

But the reason this question is tradable at all is because the science has moved from theory to measurable probability. We’re no longer asking if planets exist beyond our solar system. We’re cataloging them. We’re analyzing them. We’re studying their chemistry from light-years away.

This bet isn’t based on imagination. It’s based on accelerating capability.

Let’s break down why.

Exoplanets Changed the Equation

Thirty years ago, we weren’t even sure planets outside our solar system were common.

Now we know they’re everywhere.

Thousands of exoplanets have been confirmed, and many orbit within their star’s “habitable zone,” where liquid water could exist. More importantly, tools like the James Webb Space Telescope can now analyze atmospheric composition by studying how starlight filters through a planet’s atmosphere.

Scientists are specifically looking for chemical imbalances that suggest biological activity.

For example:

• Oxygen and methane existing together (they normally cancel each other out)
• Large amounts of water vapor
• Carbon-based molecules linked to metabolism
• Atmospheric disequilibrium that can’t be explained geologically

None of these alone prove life—but together, they strengthen the case. And that’s exactly how probabilities shift.

Ocean Worlds Are the Quiet Favorites

If you had to pick a betting favorite for “first alien life discovered,” many scientists would point closer to home.

Moons like Europa and Enceladus are believed to contain subsurface oceans beneath thick ice crusts. These oceans are:

• Salty
• Warmed by tidal forces
• Rich in organic chemistry

On Earth, life thrives around deep-sea hydrothermal vents without sunlight. That makes ocean moons scientifically plausible candidates for microbial ecosystems.

This is why many hypothetical betting boards price ocean worlds shorter than distant exoplanets. They’re reachable. They’re testable. And they’re chemically promising.

AI Is Expanding the Search Exponentially

The search for extraterrestrial signals used to rely heavily on human review.

Now, machine learning systems scan massive radio datasets for anomalies in seconds. The SETI initiative has increasingly integrated AI to identify patterns that traditional filters would miss.

AI doesn’t increase the odds of life existing. But it dramatically increases the odds of detecting something subtle. That’s a key distinction.

Discovery Probability Is Compounding

When you combine all of this, the legitimacy of the bet becomes clearer.

We now have:

• Better detection tools
• More planets identified
• Stronger chemical modeling
• Faster data processing
• Global scientific collaboration

Each of these individually increases discovery odds slightly. Together, they compound.

That doesn’t mean discovery by 2035 is likely. But it does mean the probability isn’t negligible—and that’s all a market needs. Once the probability moves above zero in a meaningful way, it becomes tradable. And right now, scientifically speaking, it absolutely is.

Our Hypothetical Betting Board: Alien Life by 2035

Now for the fun part.

If a major prediction market opened a contract today asking:

“Will confirmed extraterrestrial life be discovered by December 31, 2035?”

How might it price?

Below is a purely speculative, editorial betting board — not real market odds, but structured the way a serious exchange might list them. The goal isn’t to predict perfectly. It’s to think probabilistically.

Because once you assign odds, you’re forced to confront how likely you really think this is.

🛸 Will Alien Life Be Discovered by 2035?

At +190, the “Yes” side reflects meaningful but minority probability. The market isn’t dismissing the possibility — but it still views discovery by 2035 as an uphill outcome.

Notice something important: the “No” side being -250 doesn’t mean discovery is impossible. It simply reflects that breakthroughs in science rarely follow clean timelines. Even if life exists, confirmation could slip beyond the deadline.

That’s where value hunters would start looking.

🔬 What Kind of Life Would It Be?

If discovery happens, the type of life matters. Markets would almost certainly offer sub-contracts like this:

Microbial life being favored makes sense. It’s scientifically plausible and doesn’t require advanced civilization detection.

Intelligent life at +1200? That’s long-shot territory. Not impossible — just statistically distant.

The “Strong biosignatures only” option is particularly interesting. Markets may differentiate between “confirmed organisms” and “compelling atmospheric evidence.” That gray zone could create pricing inefficiencies depending on contract wording.

🌍 Where Would It Be Found?

Location markets would be some of the most dynamic.

Ocean moons leading the board reflects current scientific sentiment. They check more life-support boxes than Mars does today.

Exoplanet atmospheres aren’t far behind — especially as telescope resolution improves. And “Somewhere unexpected” exists because breakthroughs rarely follow consensus.

Markets price uncertainty. And in a question this big, uncertainty is the entire story.

📢 Who Announces It First?

Even the announcing body could become tradable.

NASA being favored reflects funding dominance and mission infrastructure. But collaborative international announcements could easily move shorter over time. Science has become increasingly global.

“Accidental discovery” may look like a long shot — but history is full of unexpected breakthroughs.

The real takeaway from this board isn’t the specific numbers. It’s this:

Once you can structure a market this clearly, the question stops being science fiction. It becomes probability.

Why Prediction Markets Love This Question

Some events are messy. Others are perfect for markets.

“Will we discover alien life by 2035?” checks nearly every box that prediction market operators and serious traders look for.

First, it’s binary. Either confirmed extraterrestrial life is announced by the deadline, or it isn’t. Clean resolution structure is everything in event contracts.

Second, it has a fixed horizon. Long-dated contracts allow pricing to evolve over time. New missions launch. Data improves. Scientific papers get published. Every new piece of information nudges probability slightly.

Third, it has massive public interest. Markets thrive on engagement. This isn’t a niche economic indicator — it’s one of the biggest existential questions humanity can ask.

Here’s why this type of question is especially attractive to prediction markets:

• Clear resolution authority (scientific confirmation)
• Gradual information flow over years
• Media-driven sentiment swings
• Low emotional bias compared to political markets
• Strong narrative appeal

Unlike elections or sports, this isn’t influenced by last-minute momentum. It’s driven by evidence. That makes pricing more analytical — and often more inefficient early on.

Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket specialize in exactly these kinds of forward-looking macro questions. Long timelines allow traders to buy positions when probability feels mispriced and hold as information accumulates.

There’s also something deeper at play.

Prediction markets aren’t just about money. They’re about collective belief formation.

As scientific confidence increases, the market price would slowly rise. If skepticism grows, it would fall. In real time, you’d be watching humanity quantify its own optimism.

And that’s what makes this question so compelling. It’s not just “Are we alone?” It’s “How confident are we becoming?”

How Would an Alien Life Market Settle?

This is the part casual readers skip. Serious traders don’t.

In prediction markets, the event matters. But the resolution criteria matter more. A contract doesn’t settle based on excitement, headlines, or social media trends. It settles based on predefined rules.

If an “Alien Life Discovered by 2035” contract were listed, it would likely include language specifying:

• What qualifies as “life”
• Which authority must confirm it
• What deadline applies
• What evidence standard triggers resolution

For example, a clean contract might state:

“Resolves YES if a recognized national or international scientific authority confirms the discovery of extraterrestrial biological life on or before December 31, 2035.”

That sounds simple — but gray areas are where things get interesting.

Consider these edge cases:

• A strong biosignature is detected, but scientists stop short of saying “confirmed life.”
• A major press conference announces probable life, but peer review lags.
• A discovery is later retracted or revised.
• Multiple agencies disagree on interpretation.

Does the contract resolve on initial announcement? Or after peer review? Or after formal publication?

These nuances matter because long-term scientific markets are uniquely prone to ambiguity.

Most structured exchanges (like Kalshi) predefine resolution sources — often tying them to official government releases, regulatory filings, or named institutions. Decentralized platforms may instead rely on oracle systems or community voting mechanisms.

That creates an additional layer of risk:

• Scientific risk (will life be found?)
• Timeline risk (will it happen before the deadline?)
• Resolution risk (will the wording qualify?)

In long-dated markets like this, resolution risk can be just as important as the discovery itself. Because sometimes, the biggest edge isn’t predicting the future. It’s reading the fine print correctly.

The Risks Bettors Underestimate

Speculative markets are exciting. But they’re also slow, nuanced, and occasionally frustrating.

An alien life contract wouldn’t behave like a Super Bowl prop. It would move gradually, sometimes flat for years, then spike on a single headline. That kind of structure creates risks many casual traders overlook.

Here are the biggest ones:

• Ambiguous discoveries – Scientists might announce “compelling evidence” without using the word confirmed. Markets may not settle on strong hints alone.
• Timeline slippage – Missions get delayed. Budgets shift. Launch windows move. A discovery in 2036 doesn’t pay a 2035 contract.
• Definition drift – What qualifies as “life” may evolve over time, especially with new biochemical theories.
• Resolution technicalities – If the contract requires confirmation from a specific authority, unofficial discoveries may not count.
• Liquidity risk – Long-dated contracts often have thinner trading volume, making exits harder.
• Regulatory shifts – Scientific or geopolitical tensions could affect market access or platform availability.

There’s also psychological risk.

Long-horizon trades test patience. You may hold a position for years with minimal movement. That’s uncomfortable for traders used to daily action.

And then there’s the biggest risk of all:

Even if life exists…It may simply not be found in time. In markets like this, you’re not betting on belief. You’re betting on timing, wording, and confirmation.

That’s a very different game.

If Alien Life Is Found… Markets Won’t Stop There

Discovery wouldn’t end the market. It would ignite it.

If confirmed extraterrestrial life is announced before 2035, the initial contract would settle — but that would only be the beginning of an entirely new ecosystem of tradable questions.

Think about what would immediately follow:

• Will intelligent life be discovered within 25 years?
• Will humans make direct contact by 2100?
• Will alien biology reshape medicine or energy research?
• Will global markets rally or panic in the first 48 hours?
• Will governments release classified space data within five years?

A confirmed discovery would create one of the largest informational shocks in modern history. And prediction markets thrive on informational shocks.

In fact, traders who positioned early on the “Yes” side wouldn’t just win their contract — they’d likely shape pricing in the next generation of markets. That’s the overlooked angle here.

The first confirmed life wouldn’t close a chapter. It would open a whole new category of probability.

So… Is Betting on Alien Life Smart or Just Fun?

The honest answer? It depends on how you approach it.

If you’re chasing headlines and hoping for viral announcements, this probably isn’t your market. Scientific discovery doesn’t move on hype — it moves on data.

But if you’re comfortable thinking in decades instead of weeks, this becomes a fascinating macro trade.

It appeals most to:

• Long-term probability thinkers
• Traders who understand information lag
• Prediction market enthusiasts who enjoy edge-case scenarios
• Investors comfortable holding positions through quiet periods

This isn’t about believing in aliens. It’s about evaluating discovery timelines.

In many ways, this is less speculative than betting on political events or technological adoption curves. The scientific groundwork is already underway. Missions are funded. Data is flowing.

The real question isn’t whether life exists. It’s whether we’ll detect it soon enough to satisfy the contract. That distinction is where the edge lives.

Final Verdict: The First Discovery Humanity Might Price Before It Happens

For thousands of years, humans wondered if we were alone without any way to measure the answer.

Now we have telescopes reading distant atmospheres. We have probes studying alien oceans. We have AI scanning signals across galaxies.

And we have markets assigning probabilities to the outcome. That shift is profound.

Whether or not alien life is discovered by 2035, something remarkable is already happening: humanity is quantifying its own cosmic optimism.

The idea of extraterrestrial life is no longer just philosophical. It’s probabilistic. It can be debated. Modeled. Traded. And that may be the most fascinating part of all.

If life is found by 2035, it will be one of the greatest discoveries in human history. If it isn’t, the search continues — and so does the market.

Because the ultimate wager isn’t on aliens. It’s on how fast human curiosity turns into confirmation. And that’s a bet the entire planet is quietly making. 🚀

2026 Daytona 500 Odds, Picks, and Prediction

It’s time to rev your NASCAR betting engines, as the 2026 NASCAR season officially gets going with the 2026 Daytona 500 firing off this weekend.

All of the best NASCAR drivers will be on hand for the biggest race of the year, with three-time winner Denny Hamlin coming in with the best Daytona 500 odds, per DraftKings.

Hamlin is just one of many drivers with +2000 odds or better, while there are a million ways to look at this race. Two-time defending champion William Byron will have his work cut out for him, as he’ll be starting all the way back in the 39th slot.

That alone is a fun narrative to track, while it will be interesting to see if a newcomer can win the Daytona 500 this year. Byron has won the last two Daytona 500 races, but we’d seen a different winner in each of the previous three runs following consecutive wins by Denny Hamlin.

It’s an exciting time, but what would make it even better is if we can come to a correct Daytona 500 prediction. Join me as I break down the latest odds and dissect the top challengers to the favored Hamlin.

Latest 2026 Daytona 500 Odds

Denny Hamlin enters as the favorite to win the 2026 Daytona 500 this year. He’ll start from the 22nd position, but if he can work his way up to the front, he can become just the third driver ever to secure four wins at this prestigious event.

He isn’t favored by much, and it’s arguable that it’s too much of a climb to feel amazing about his chances. After all, over 70% of Daytona 500 winners have come from a top-10 spot.

That might put more of an onus on the likes of Logano, Larson, or Busch. Busch starts off in the top position, while the other three are in the top-10.

Of the top-10 options, Keselowski and Elliott may project as the most intriguing betting values.

As I said, there’s a lot to consider. If you’re betting on who will win the Daytona 500, you do need to consider track history, positioning, and recent form. Even then, you’re dealing with a huge, competitive field, making other bets (top 3, top 10) stand out as viable options.

With that, let’s dig into this year’s Daytona 500 betting odds and work our way to a final winner prediction.

Why is Denny Hamlin Favored to Win the Dayton 500?

Hamlin is one of the best drivers in NASCAR. He pulls in as the Daytona 500 favorite due to his dominance at this event, having won back-to-back in 2019 and 2020, and three times overall.

Hamlin has admittedly not won here since 2020, but he knows this track as well as anyone. While he hasn’t nabbed a win in five years, he’s still been in terrific form, as he had six wins and 14 finishes inside the top-5 last year.

The clock is ticking on Hamlin to make history, as the 45-year-old is no longer a young pup. However, the track history, talent, and recent form all combine to make him a viable bet. Age and starting position (22nd) do work against him, however.

Top 2026 Daytona 500 Contenders

Hamlin doesn’t have as clear of a path to victory as you’d like for a betting favorite. Due to that, it might make sense to look at some of the top 2026 Daytona 500 challengers:

Best Daytona 500 Sleeper Pick for 2026

• Kyle Larson (+1600)
• Chase Elliott (+1600)
• Brad Keselowski (+1800)
• Chase Briscoe (+2200)

I’m not as excited to lay money on the non-contenders, but there’s still reason to give them a look. For one, they all offer betting pricing. Secondly, some of them are still top-shelf drivers who either have won the Daytona 500 or are definitely good enough to get it done.

Larson checks virtually every box. He’s starting near the front in the 8th position, he’s in his prime at age 33, and he’s still driving as well as ever. Last year, he nabbed three first-place finishes and had 12 other races where he cracked the top-5. He’s not come all that close to winning here, but five top-11 runs keep him in the conversation.

Much like Larson, Chase Elliott has never won the big one.

He’s even younger at 30, however, and he continues to be in top form with two wins and nine more top-5 runs in 2025. He will also start the 2026 Daytona 500 from the 6th spot, so he has the perfect recipe for a first-time winner.

I wouldn’t rule out Brad Keselowski, either. He’s getting up there at age 42, but he will understandably be eager to get that elusive Daytona 500 win. Keselowski starts from the 9th hole, giving him a decent chance to put himself in the record books. He hasn’t finished better than 9th here in his last 11 tries, however.

Let’s aim a bit higher with Chase Briscoe, who may be the truest definition of a Daytona 500 sleeper when looking at this group. The 31-year-old is not the most accomplished NASCAR driver, but he is starting out of the 2nd slot in this race, and he really started heating up last year.

Briscoe scored three wins in 2025, as well as 12 other finishes inside the top-5. One of those actually came at last year’s Daytona 500, and he finished third here in 2022. He looks like a sneaky bet, and his starting position might just give him the boost he needs to shock the NASCAR world, while returning elite betting value in the process.

Top 2026 Daytona 500 Longshot Bet

Want a 2026 Daytona 500 bet that nobody will see coming? I’ll give you two.

One is a youngster who could decide to leave his mark early. I’m talking about the 23-year-old Carson Hocevar, who really started to prove his worth last year, where he cracked the top-10 in 13 different races, with two coming as runner-up.

Could Hocevar be ready to ascend the NASCAR ranks? It’s not crazy, especially when you consider he gets to start out of the 6th spot. Last year showed he can hang with the big boys. Now he can show everyone in a very big way (as a +2800 bet) that he has what it takes to beat them on the biggest stage.

Let’s dream even bigger, eh? Hocevar is a calculated risk with an ascending prospect, but sometimes a tried and true veteran can offer mind-boggling value, just as well. That has me liking Michael McDowell a bit.

McDowell is on his last legs at age 41, but he still did a fine job last year with 22 finishes inside the top-20 and six more inside the top-10. He didn’t win any races, but his last Cup Series victory came – you guessed it – at the Daytona 500 back in 2021.

He’s a longshot, to be sure, but McDowell finished 11th here last year, displayed solid overall form in 2025, and knows how to win this event. Considering he gets to start close to the front in the 10th spot, he feels like a pretty sneaky bet at his +4000 price tag.

Recent Daytona 500 Winners

2026 Daytona 500 Prediction: Who Will Win This Year?

Betting on NASCAR tends to be a bit of a crapshoot. The same studs tend to have the best odds to win, but figuring out who actually wins is a lot easier said than done.

For the Daytona 500, I tend to think someone up front has a good shot at winning. A crash or epic performance from someone in the back can end that logic in a hurry, but history still suggests as much.

All things considered, I think Ryan Blaney is the best bet.

Blaney has solid +1000 odds to win the 2026 Daytona 500, he’s starting up front, he’s in fantastic form, and he’s done really well here.

A former winner could always rise up and get the win, but I’d bet on a new driver adding their name to the record books. Blaney stands out as the best contender to back, while Chase Briscoe (+2200) is probably the most alluring value bet this year.

2025-26 NBA All-Star Weekend Betting Guide – Odds & Predictions for Dunk Contest and More

The 2025-26 NBA All-Star Weekend is almost here. The action gets started in Los Angeles at the Intuit Dome on February 13th, with the biggest events going down on Saturday and Sunday.

Even better than the events themselves? You can bet on NBA All-Star Weekend markets. That includes the NBA Slam Dunk Contest, the 3-Point Contest, and the NBA All-Star Game itself.

This is a fun but volatile event, so it’s understandable if you’re not entirely sure where to invest your cash. DraftKings has odds up for all of the main NBA All-Star markets, so let’s touch on each one and come away with some winning NBA All-Star Weekend predictions.

How to Bet on NBA All-Star Weekend

This is not normal NBA betting. However, there is still a huge edge, as the top basketball betting apps are never entirely sure how to price this stuff. To be frank, it’s kind of wild that they even offer all of these events when you realize how tough it is to set odds for them.

That said, you should consider the following before betting on NBA All-Star Weekend events:

• Player motivation
• Format changes
• Market misprices
• Player experience

Every year, something can change when it comes to the NBA All-Star events, while you always want to keep in mind just how motivated players are. For example, it’s been circling social media that the players do not take the actual NBA All-Star Game very seriously.

That could be interpreted as some players not giving a full effort (bet their Unders?), with Euro stars like Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic visibly goofing around in past years.

Players tend to be more motivated when it’s an individual contest, and all eyes are on them, though. The 3-Point Contest and the Dunk Contest specifically highlight specific player talent, and there is a certain amount of pride involved with winning both events.

With all of this in mind, your biggest edge is identifying where the top NBA sportsbooks missed the mark in terms of setting odds for this event. I’ll get into those as I break down each event.

NBA 3-Point Contest Betting Guide

This year’s 3-Point Contest should be fun, as it features sharpshooting rookie Kon Knueppel as the tentative favorite, plus a hobbled Damian Lillard as the top challenger.

Lillard is an interesting addition, as he’s yet to play a single regular-season minute due to rehabbing a torn Achilles. Is he a logical bet as the guy with the second-best odds? That’s a key decision bettors will have to make.

Before you bet on who will win the NBA 3-Point Contest, check out the latest odds.

NBA 3-Point Contest Odds for 2025-26

This is very interesting pricing, as a rookie has never won the NBA 3-Point Contest. Knueppel is as good of a shooter as you’ll find in the NBA right now, however, as he’s connecting on 43.1% of his deep shots so far and is in the running for NBA Rookie of the Year as well.

Still, the field is pretty competitive. Lillard may not be at full strength, but it doesn’t take much to shoot a basketball with little mobility being needed. Lillard’s speed from rack to rack may not be as good as everyone else’s, but being one of the best spot-up shooters in the game probably negates any downside.

Lillard knows how this contest plays out, too. He’s won twice before, winning consecutive 3-Point Contest titles in 2023 and 2024.

When betting on the NBA 3-Point Contest winner, consider shooting percentage, event history, and release. Players with a better set shot (as opposed to historically shooting more off the dribble) will have an edge, while a better shooting percentage in games should equate to a steadier shot without a defender on them.

All things considered, each player offers pretty appealing pricing. But who offers the most value, and who will win?

Best Value for 3-Point Contest: Bobby Portis (+1100)

You’re getting nice bang for your buck no matter who you back. But nobody offers more value or upside than Bobby Portis.

The Milwaukee Bucks sharpshooter is connecting at an absurd 45% clip from deep this year, and this is the exact type of player who can thrive in this contest. Why? Because most of the threes Portis attempts are spot up shots just like he’ll be taking in this contest.

Portis may have poor odds to actually win, but if I am betting on the 3-Point Contest, I’m definitely placing two bets; one on who I think will win and another on Portis due to his shooting style, conversion rate, and this sick price.

3-Point Contest Prediction

Damian Lillard is a fun wild card, but I don’t want to bet on an aging veteran coming off a shredded Achilles.

There is a case for the likes of Jamal Murray, Donovan Michell, Tyrese Maxey, and even Devin Booker. They’re all elite volume scorers, and they can hit from outside as well as anyone.

But nobody is more compelling than the rook. The history narrative is a fun one, and despite Kon being perhaps the most reliable outside shooter in this bunch, he’s still coming in at a palatable +350. I think we will get our first rookie winner this weekend.

Pick: Kon Knueppel (+350)

NBA Dunk Contest Betting Guide

The NBA Slam Dunk Contest isn’t what it once was. Michael Jordan and Vince Carter aren’t coming to rescue us, and even Mac McClung won’t save us from boredom.

That’s right, the three-time Dunk Contest champion has hung up his dunking shoes and won’t be on hand to defend his title. Instead, a new Dunk Contest winner will be crowned, and it’s up to bettors to predict who it will be.

This year’s Dunk Contest participants is admittedly not an exciting group on paper, but here’s the pricing for who will come away with the win.

2025-26 Dunk Contest Odds

This has to be the worst NBA Slam Dunk Contest field of all time. Carter Bryant is an exciting prospect with elite dunking ability, but he may be the only legit threat in this group.

Bryant definitely has the athleticism to deliver some show-stopping dunks, and his +180 price tag indicates the best NBA sportsbooks agree he’s the likely winner. Or that’s just how people have been betting, anyways. Perhaps both.

The problem is that his competition is remarkably weak. Jaxson Hayes is a 7-footer who will find it difficult to impress the judges and crowd due to his size and length. He definitely can dunk well, but historically, big men don’t often fare well in these competitions.

If Hayes is going to stage the upset, he may need to be extra creative and show us something we’ve never seen before. The odds are against that happening.

If you’re betting against Carter Bryant, my advice is to stretch your neck for more value. Keshad Johnson is an undrafted second-year player that has torn up the G-League with 21.8 points per game. He’s also dropped the hammer with some thunderous dunks more than a few times.

The other option is rookie first-round draft pick Jase Richardson, who has been riding the bench for the Orlando Magic. He doesn’t have a clear path to making an impact in the NBA, but his high-flying dunking ability is a known fact.

Richardson and everyone else in this competition will be looking to make a name for themselves by winning this year’s Slam Dunk Contest. But who is the right pick?

Best NBA Dunk Contest Value Bet: Jase Richardson (+350)

The son of legendary dunker and NBA star Jason Richardson, Jase has had success in dunk contests in the past.

Richardson isn’t close to leaving his mark in NBA games just yet, but he has the size, athleticism, explosiveness, and creativity to steal the show this week.

Dunk Contest Prediction

Despite the 2025-26 NBA Dunk Contest looking pretty underwhelming on paper, I think people will be pleasantly surprised by the actual athletic talent and dunking ability we’re about to see.

It’s admittedly more fun to see household names doing a dunk-off, but all of these guys can deliver some wild dunks. Hayes feels like the least likely winner, but this could seriously be a three-man race that is tough to parse.

The case is solid for any of the other three, but my favorite value bet is also my pick to win. Richardson has pedigree, ideal size, past success in dunk contests, and he also has everything to gain by winning this.

The guy with the most alluring Dunk Contest odds just might be the one who wins it.

Pick: Jase Richardson (+350)

2025-26 NBA All-Star Game Betting Guide

You can bet on some other small NBA All-Star Weekend markets, but I’ll focus on the Big 3, with the All-Star Game wrapping things up this Sunday.

This year’s game will have a tough time matching past renditions, as massive names like Giannis, Luka, and others are unlikely to suit up due to injury. Giannis and Doncic are both listed as starters, so they’ll be replaced in the starting five if they’re both unable to give it a go.

The format has changed this year, too.

Instead of a traditional NBA All-Star Game, there will be a three-team round robin. Two of the teams will consist of US-born players, while a third team (Team World) will consist of players outside of the United States.

The two teams who are the most successful will face off in the official NBA All-Star Game.

Right now, we don’t know what that final matchup will be, but there are NBA All-Star Game odds up at DraftKings for the initial three matchups.

NBA All-Star Game Odds for 2025-26

• USA Stars (+124) vs. Team World (-148)
• USA Stripes (+100) vs. Team World (-120)
• USA Stripes (-120) vs. USA Stars (+100)

As you can tell based on the pricing, Team World is viewed as the tentative favorite. That is a testament to the European star power collected in The Association. Even with the likes of Giannis and possibly Luka Doncic not available, powerhouse athletes like Wemby, Nikola Jokic, and SGA give this team the clear edge.

USA Stripes may have been the favorite if they had a healthy Steph Curry on hand. However, the aging veteran is battling an injury and won’t play in any of the All-Star games this year.

That squad is still backed by big names like Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant. Based on those names alone, this team could offer substantial value in any game they’re involved in.

USA Stars features massive stars such as Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, and Tyrese Maxey, but is arguably the weakest overall team among the three.

NBA All-Star Game Predictions

• Team World (-148)
• Team World (-120)
• USA Stripes (-120)

We don’t know what the pricing will be in the “fourth quarter”, which will operate as the final 12-minute game. My prediction is that it will end up being a showdown between Team World and USA Stripes, and based on the rosters, Team World is a solid bet to come away with the win.

The issue, as noted before, could be how seriously players take this thing. If you don’t believe Jokic and others will try their hardest, Team World suddenly becomes a bit of a trap.

However, due to the format change, there’s a chance everyone in these games will actually try to win. If they do, the talent on Team World trumps the other two teams. I’d take USA Stripes over USA Stars, however.

Who Will Win the NBA All-Star Game MVP?

On top of the game(s), you can also bet on the NBA All-Star Game MVP. My guess is the winner would really be decided in the final quarter of this competition, and early odds indicate someone from Team World would make the most sense.

Take a look at the odds for this betting market:

NBA All-Star Game MVP Odds

Some of this will depend on who actually suits up for these games, but Wemby comes in as a +600 favorite, and he makes too much sense.

The knock on Wemby is that he gets hurt a lot and isn’t always available. But he’s going to play, and all eyes will be on him. With Team World being my pick to win this year, Wemby is the logical MVP pick and by all accounts, is also an insane value bet.

Pick: Victor Wembanyama (+600)

Betting on the 2025-26 NBA All-Star Weekend

The NBA All-Star Weekend is a chance for the players to break away from the grind and have some fun. You get a break from the torture that is trying to bet on a dying NBA product.

Don’t get me wrong, NBA betting is still something you can profit from. But with tanking, load management, random blowouts, and fatigue due to scheduling, it can be a betting space filled with landmines. You need to pick your spots and do so wisely.

That really doesn’t change when it comes to betting on the NBA All-Star Game, the 3-Point Contest, or the Dunk Contest. There are clear favorites, there are compelling values, and there are viable longshot bets. But the best bets still are largely staring us in the face.

I think I’d be comfortable making two bets per market. Knueppel and Portis stand out for the 3-Point Contest, while a nostalgic bet in favor of Lillard also is on the table.

For the Dunk Contest, the small field keeps my interest to just one bet, and everything points to Jase Richardson being the top pick.

The new game format messes things up a bit, so I’d just focus on the game that offers the most value and perceived safety. That’s Team World at -148) against the USA Stars. Once the odds drop for the final game, you can calibrate, but if you must bet again, I’d once again roll with Team World, regardless of what the pricing ends up being.

That does it for my 2025-26 NBA All-Star Weekend betting guide. Good luck!

2027 Super Bowl Futures: Updated Odds & Early Betting Favorites

The dust has finally settled on the 2026 Super Bowl, as the Seattle Seahawks lived up to their favorite status and downed the New England Patriots, 29-13.

Seattle controlled throughout, leaning on a strong rushing attack, splash plays from Sam Darnold, and a smothering defense to capture their second Lombardi Trophy. But it’s onward and upward for everyone else, as the Pats head home in sadness and sports bettors instantly ponder who might win it all next year.

Luckily, DraftKings and other NFL sportsbooks are quick to scratch that itch, as 2027 Super Bowl futures are up and ready for us to put some money on the line. Unsurprisingly, the Seahawks open with the best Super Bowl 61 odds, but the pricing is tight, and they are far from runaway favorites.

Hey, repeating as Super Bowl champion isn’t very easy, I’m told. But you can certainly bet on the Seahawks to win, or you can target any number of other teams. But which 2027 Super Bowl bet is the best to make right now?

I’ll walk you through the latest Super Bowl odds, list my best bets, and wrap things up with an early Super Bowl 2027 prediction.

Early 2027 Super Bowl Odds

The Seattle Seahawks open the NFL offseason with the best Super Bowl odds over at DraftKings. They aren’t alone, though, as the NFC West rival Los Angeles Rams share the exact same price.

While those two divisional foes are at the top, the gap isn’t very wide between them and the next team. Buffalo is right behind them with +1100 Super Bowl 61 betting odds, while a whopping nine other teams have odds better than +2000.

One thing is for sure: bettors are getting gobs of value if they place a winning bet on Super Bowl 61 right now. The big question, of course, is who should you bet on?

I’ll walk you through the best options, starting with the new champion Seahawks and the team that shares the same Super Bowl 2027 odds as them.

Why Are the Seahawks & Rams Co-Favorites?

Seattle makes sense as the new Super Bowl betting favorite, seeing as they literally just beat the Patriots to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. They did it rather easily, too, and with very little of their roster being impacted going into next year, a healthy Seahawks team could have a legit chance to repeat.

The problem, of course, is staying healthy isn’t easy. Historically, there’s a pretty strong correlation between remaining at full strength and becoming a champion. Another issue is nailing down the #1 seed in your conference two years in a row is easier said than done.

The Rams will be breathing down Seattle’s neck all year, and considering they are in their division, they could be a serious thorn in their side. In fact, the Rams gave the Seahawks absolute hell last year, as they barely lost to them in the NFC title game and the two sides played each other remarkably tight in three different meetings.

The real issue is the reality that repeating as a Super Bowl champ in back-to-back years is just really difficult. Even if you stay healthy and lock up that top seed, you still need to win those tense games, get back to the Big Game, and find a way to finish the job against a highly motivated opponent.

Just 12 teams in history have made consecutive appearances in the Super Bowl, while only eight have actually won it all two years in a row.

Seattle is facing an uphill battle versus history, so even though they are stacked and have incredible leadership, they feel like a shaky bet.

The Rams might have a more compelling case as Seattle’s arch nemesis. They came so close to getting to the promised land this year, after all. That said, the value isn’t right. It might make more sense to wait for football betting sites to adjust to the point where you can get them at +1000 or better.

Top Super Bowl 61 Contenders

It is incredibly early, so it’s important to note that there are a lot of true contenders, and you could make a case for even more. That said, I’ll break down the four Super Bowl 61 contenders I’d be most interested in betting on and why:

Best Super Bowl 2027 Sleeper Picks

• Houston Texans (+2000)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (+2200)
• Chicago Bears (+2500)

There is a ton of value when looking at who will win the Super Bowl next year. Literally anyone is in play, especially when you consider that nobody saw either the Seahawks or Patriots coming this year.

Teams like Jacksonville, Denver, and Chicago were also meteoric risers that few thought could make a serious run at a championship. Most of those teams see pretty big boosts in their Super Bowl 2027 odds, but it still keeps them in the sleeper conversation.

Houston could have made a title run if it hadn’t been for shaky play from quarterback C.J. Stroud. Backed by an elite defense, the Texans could be better decision-makers away from the franchise’s first-ever championship.

The Jaguars had an amazing year under new head coach Liam Cohen. Could he follow MacDonald’s path and win one in his second season with Jacksonville? You won’t meet a more likable coach, while the Jags really do appear to have the framework of a true Super Bowl sleeper.

Lastly, we can’t ignore the Bears. Chicago has an amazing Super Bowl price when you consider how much they’ve shown us already. Ben Johnson was arguably the NFL Coach of the Year (even though he didn’t win), guiding the Bears to the NFC North crown and an upset win over the hated Packers.

More than anything, though, we saw a star being born right before our eyes with the maturation of Caleb Williams. If Chicago’s defense can improve and Williams is more consistent, the Bears will definitely be in the mix again next year. Truth be told, getting them at +2500 could be the biggest steal of this entire betting market.

Best Super Bowl Longshot Bet for 2027

The best Super Bowl 61 longshot bet right now has to be the New York Giants. Only time will tell if a team this young and raw can make a run, but two things stand out from this year’s Super Bowl.

1. Coaching changes are huge
2. Young/cheap QBs allow for elite roster building

Both the Seahawks and Patriots leveled up when they moved on from their previous head coaches. Mike Vrabel led New England to the Super Bowl in his first season on the job, while Seattle won their second Lombardi Trophy in Mike MacDonald’s second year.

That formula isn’t a lock to work again next season, but the Giants absolutely have a talented roster, and bringing in a veteran CEO-type of head coach like John Harbaugh could be just what the doctor ordered.

The other thing is the quarterback contract. Jaxon Dart has to prove he’s even the guy under center for the G-Men, but he flashed enough to suggest he can be. Beyond him, Big Blue is getting healthier with studs like Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers making their way back to the field.

New York isn’t wasting big money on any of these players, as they’re all still young and on rookie deals. That could allow them to be aggressive in free agency, expediting their rise up the ranks. Plus, they’re in the NFC East, which has historically been one of the easier divisions to dominate.

If New York makes the big leap they’re set up to, they could be an amazing steal at their current +7000 Super Bowl odds.

Factors That Could Shift Super Bowl 61 Odds

The paint isn’t dry yet on these early Super Bowl odds. A lot can change between now and even OTAs, too, so it’s important to track key developments if you’re waiting to place your bets.

Here are a few things that could alter the 2027 Super Bowl odds, for better or worse:

1. NFL Draft results
2. Free Agency moves
3. Offseason injuries
4. Coaching changes

As noted, several teams changed the direction of their franchise – or at least intended to – by switching head coaches.

It remains to be seen how that plays out, but teams like the Giants, Ravens, and Bills are at the forefront of potentially massive moves that could derail or elevate their title hopes.

Coming up is the 2026 NFL Draft. Most of the chatter surrounds who will go #1 overall, but every team has draft picks to work with and will have an opportunity to improve their roster.

Aside from the draft, free agency threatens to change teams for the worse, while some franchises can strike gold and land marquee talent they can use to get them over the hump.

Injuries are always going to factor into Super Bowl odds, too. Some contenders like the Packers and 49ers are hoping to get back to full strength, while favorites like the Seahawks and Bills will need to avoid devastating health concerns.

The offseason is tricky for Super Bowl odds, as the market can fluctuate greatly depending on who teams draft or sign, and how players recover from injuries. The better you can react to the fluctuation of the pricing, the more value you can obtain when betting on the Super Bowl.

Expert Super Bowl 2027 Betting Tips

Before you bet on who will win the Super Bowl next year, take a second to digest all the information you have at your disposal. Also, consider my top Super Bowl betting tips:

• Shop odds early and often – You have a sportsbook you love, but do they have the best odds for the team you want to bet on? Make sure you shop around, while waiting a bit to compare pricing can also be a good idea.
• Don’t bet right away – Everyone wants skin in the game, but it’s very early in the process. To make the best bet possible, make sure you turn over every stone to ensure maximum value.
• Bet early if it’s a smash – Waiting to bet and shopping for ideal Super Bowl odds is preferred, but sometimes the bet is too good to ignore. Pricing can shift in a hurry, so if a bet is there for the taking and it’s too good to ignore, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger.
• Prioritize value over favorites – The Super Bowl winner is rarely the top favorite and sometimes it’s not even one of the top contenders. Target the 2nd tier of contenders or consider which sleepers or longshot bets have a path to paying off.
• Diversify your bets – Super Bowl odds are pretty forgiving, so instead of going all in on one team, take a crack at multiple contenders and value bets. You don’t want to bet so much that you can’t profit, but a handful of bets instead of just one is the better approach.

Super Bowl 2027 Prediction

Our Pick: Chicago Bears (+2500)

It is very early, but if you need a Super Bowl 61 prediction, my money is on the Chicago Bears at +2500.

There is a lot of historical data working against the current top contenders. Betting on a repeat champion doesn’t seem wise, while no quarterback has literally never even made it back to the Super Bowl after appearing in the game in his second season.

Teams often crumble after reaching the conference title game the previous year, too. Based on this information, can we cross off the likes of the Seahawks, Rams, Patriots, and Broncos? I don’t think it means they can’t defy history, but it’s enough to get me to look at other options I am already interested in.

Chicago is at the top of the list. Striking while the iron is hot is one thing, but this one qualifies as one where we can go hard while the iron is just starting to warm up. Getting the Bears at +2500 feels insane given everything they’ve shown us so far.

Ben Johnson is an offensive guru, and Chicago just won their division and was one bad play in overtime from reaching the NFC title game. With a more concerted effort to beef up their defense, the Bears could have everything you look for in a Super Bowl contender.

2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals Prediction

The 2026 Winter Olympics are well underway, and currently, it’s Norway’s race to lose. FanDuel has Norway as the far and away favorite to claim the most gold medals before the dust settles in Italy, and time is running out for another country to give them a good sweat.

This has already been an insane Winter Olympics run, whether it be the gritty effort by seasoned veteran Lindsey Vonn or, or Austrian snowboarder Benjamin Karl claiming gold at age 40.

Can anyone actually catch Norway? Not if you ask the experts who previewed these Winter Games before they began. Norway was a top pick by many to win gold the most, and they entered the 2026 Winter Olympics with -195 odds to do just that.

Now priced as obscene favorites, bettors need to consider who can stage the upset, or if betting on who will win the most gold medals at the Winter Olympics is even worth their time. To get a good idea of where this market is at, let’s go over the latest odds and work our way to a prediction.

Latest Odds to Win the Most Gold Medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics

Norway pulls in with staggering -900 odds to win the most gold medals in this installment of the Winter Games. They’re very much in the lead with six gold medals already claimed (at the time of this writing), while the next closest country only has three.

That’d be Switzerland, but considering their +10000 odds, they aren’t a great bet to hold onto second place for much longer.

The USA is really the only country with a legit shot to unseat Norway, but their +500 odds are both comforting and discouraging. Those odds mean they’re the team with the best chance, but they’re also a clear indication that this is quite an uphill battle ahead of them.

Pulling in third is Germany with +3300, while nobody else is even at +5000. Italy would make for a heck of a story if they could storm back as the host nation, but with their +6000 odds, they are looking like a long shot at best.

You can bet on which country will win the most gold medals now, but this demands to be analyzed further. Let’s first inspect why Norway is favored, and gauge which contenders have a real shot at giving them a run for their money.

Why is Norway Favored to Win the Most Gold Medals?

It’s pretty simple. Norway is stacked this year, and they were a -195 favorite to win the most gold hardware even before the 2026 Winter Games got going. Now that they’ve raced out to a three-medal lead over the next closest country, it’s going to be difficult to match them – let alone beat them.

They’re even making history in this year’s games:

Norway dominated the last Winter Games, too. They had more total medals (37) than anyone at the 2022 Games, and they also secured the most gold medals (16). Four years prior they were among the best, as they once again won the most total medals and tied for first in gold medal wins.

A mainstay at the Winter Olympics, Norway was always expected to be a problem for everyone else. They’ve lived up to expectations and would now need an epic collapse to fail to hold onto the top spot.

Cruising out to a big early lead is important, but Norway is going to be in contention for a lot more medals.

Top Contenders to Take Down Norway

Norway has been pretty tough to beat at the Winter Olympics for some time now. They were fully expected to be the trend setter this year, and it’d be nothing short of shocking if they actually relinquished their gold medal lead at this point.

That said, the Olympics can be pretty crazy, and there are some countries who could heat up in a hurry. The odds aren’t amazing, but if you’re betting against Norway, start with these three contenders:

Top Longshot Bet to Win the Most Gold Medals

Truth be told, anything after the United States feels like a pretty big gamble. The US isn’t a great bet even at +500, but if you bet on another country, you’re already not really carrying about any risk.

Naturally, you should tread lightly with any bets outside of Norway or Team USA. That said, if you’re going to go big, why not aim super high with someone like France (+10000)?

It’s a true longshot bet, but France is actually going to be a viable option in a lot of competitions. Clement Noel (+500) has the third best price going into the Slalom Men event, Erik Perrot (+500) has the second best odds for the men’s 10km Biathlon Sprint, Lou Jeanmonnot (+350) is actually favored to win the women’s 12.5km Mass Start, and Team France is a -145 favorite to take gold at the 4x6km women’s Relay.

Even sweeping those events won’t be enough, of course. However, if France can win the events they are favored in and surprise in a few others, they could be a +10000 bet worth taking a chance on.

Who Will Win the Most Gold Medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

There, you have a breakdown of why Norway is favored, who their top challengers are, and a sleeper pick that would net a sick return if they delivered.

However, this Winter Games betting market boils down to two things: Norway isn’t a country you should be betting on anymore, and you’d be best served sticking to individual event betting.

While undeniably true, I think the math points to the United States being the only viable bet here. They are favored in a slew of remaining scheduled events, and they have enough talent and sheer volume to make a push in a handful of others.

If you must bet on which country will win the most gold medals, I’d target Team USA. I think Norway still gets it done, but the United States absolutely has a path to the top spot, and you can’t beat that +500 price.

2025-26 NBA MVP Race: Latest Odds & Our Prediction for Who Wins

The race for the 2025-26 NBA MVP is officially on. It’s literally been going on for months, but we have updated odds at DraftKings, with Oklahoma City Thunder star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge (-230).

But is he the rightful favorite? And should bettors be considering someone else? There are some mild cases for other players involved, while their NBA MVP odds alone demand we at least give them a cursory glance.

SGA is putting up big numbers, and he’s on the best team in the NBA. That combination is hard to fight against, but before betting on NBA player futures like this, turning over every stone is highly suggested.

Wondering who will win the NBA MVP award this year? Or simply looking for a reason not to bet on SGA? I’ll break down the latest NBA MVP betting odds, detail why SGA is favored, highlight the best alternative bets, and close things out with a final NBA MVP prediction.

Latest NBA MVP Odds for 2025-26

SGA comes in with the best odds to win the NBA MVP award this year. That makes sense, as he won the award last year and led his Oklahoma City Thunder to the franchise’s first ever championship.

Gilgeous-Alexander has admittedly done nothing to lose the award, either. He’s putting up big numbers, and the Thunder are once again in contention for the NBA’s best record.

That said, his price is not very inviting, and there are some very strong cases for some of the other options. Nikola Jokic is a walking triple-double and offers solid value, Luka Doncic would be a first-time winner and is churning out insane production, and there are a few other players listed at intriguing prices with viable arguments backing them.

Not sure who the NBA MVP winner is? Let’s go over the top options and find out the best way to bet on this award.

Why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA MVP Favorite

NBA MVP awards can often come in bunches. Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic are three players who have all won back-to-back MVPs in just the last decade.

SGA continues to churn out elite production, too. He’s averaging 31.8 points per game while finding the time to dish out 6.4 assists per game. On top of that, he’s making an impact as a defender (1.3 steals per game), and shooting a career-high 55% from the field.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s team success is also tough to ignore. He’s on par statistically with where he was last year, and his Thunder haven’t skipped a beat. OKC currently owns the top seed in The Association and could be well on their way to a title defense.

The league MVP isn’t always from the NBA’s best team, but numbers like this and high-level team success certainly make for a strong case for SGA to repeat.

Why SGA Might Not Win

There are a few reasons why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might not win the NBA MVP award. The first is general fatigue. Voters have only awarded him the trophy once, but there is a pretty loud narrative that he is a “free throw merchant” and wouldn’t be nearly as impactful without getting to the line 9.2 times per game like he does.

Another issue is the competition. SGA’s team success is unmatched, and his numbers across the board are as good as anyone’s. But he’s not the top guy in a lot of key categories. If the MVP voters want to value top-shelf production, SGA may not actually be the first choice in this year’s NBA MVP race.

Top 2025-26 NBA MVP Contenders

• Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
• Luka Doncic, F, Los Angeles Lakers
• Cade Cunningham, PG, Detroit Pistons

I can’t leave out Jokic, simply because he is a three-time NBA MVP winner and comes in with the second-best odds this year. He appears to be a distant second in this NBA MVP race, however, and he’s missed a good chunk of the season with an injury.

Statistically, Jokic is still a legit threat and easily a top-5 player in the league. His Denver Nuggets continue to win games at a solid rate, too. He checks every box, other than the fact that availability has been an issue, and NBA MVP voters might be sick of choosing him.

Availability is the biggest problem, though, as Jokic would no longer be eligible if he missed even one more game this year.

That seems problematic. If he can stay on the court the rest of the way he’s a threat, but that might be asking a lot.

Luka Doncic is a very interesting option. His Los Angeles Lakers are right up there with the best teams in the Western Conference and just recently were in play for the #2 seed. If the Lakers can stay among the top four seeds, he has to garner serious consideration.

Doncic carries major weight when it comes to production, star power, and narrative. His team’s success is good enough, and he’s 1st in several key categories – namely points per game – and top-5 in a bunch of others.

The narrative backing him is that he’s a superstar that puts up insane numbers, yet hasn’t won this award in his career. He may finally be due, provided the voting panel can overlook his subpar defense.

Cade Cunningham is more of a narrative and team success play. He’s led his Detroit Pistons to the best record in the Eastern Conference, and he’s averaging a double-double on the year. In the name of Steve Nash, he should be getting more of a look than he ultimately will.

My Favorite NBA MVP Sleeper Pick

What you define as being a true NBA MVP sleeper is up to you, but since the shortlist is, well, kind of short, I think anyone beyond Cade Cunningham at +2000 qualifies as a sleeper.

All things considered, the value bet with the most compelling case to win the NBA MVP award has to be Jaylen Brown. He’s not considered a true contender, but he offers a fun price tag at +3500, and he actually has a strong case.

Context is key here, as the Boston Celtics were not supposed to be this good after seeing Jayson Tatum tear his Achilles during the playoffs last season.

Jaylen Brown, to this point, hadn’t been asked to be his team’s top scoring option, either. The 29-year-old responded with what has become his best season to date, as he’s putting up an insane 29.5 points per game while keeping his Celtics near the top of the Eastern Conference.

Boston may not get the #1 seed when it’s all said and done, but the fact that they’re even remotely in the mix is absurd. Brown’s numbers are a big reason why, too, as he’s racking up seven rebounds and 4.8 dimes per game, while shooting a healthy 48.6% from the floor and also contributing on the defensive side.

It’s not the sexiest NBA MVP pick, but it’s a high-value option that just might have legs to it.

Best NBA MVP Bets Right Now

• Favorite: SGA (-230)
• Challenger: Luka Doncic (+2000)
• Sleeper: Jaylen Brown (+3500)

If you want the best NBA MVP picks to target right now, I think it comes down to three different types of bets. SGA is the clear favorite and likely winner, Doncic is probably the most compelling “realistic” contender, and Jaylen Brown is the most enticing high upside dice roll.

That doesn’t mean we should ignore Nikola Jokic at +350 or that we can’t bet on Cunningham at +2000, but these are best overall bets for this market.

Key Factors That Decide Who Will Win the NBA MVP

There are a few things you need to keep in mind when betting on the next NBA MVP. Throughout history, most of the winners have had much of the same criteria, making the following pretty important:

• Team Success
• Elite Production
• Positive Advanced Metrics
• Individual Narrative
• Availability

It’s pretty simple. To win the NBA MVP, your team can’t be bad. You don’t need to have the #1 seed or the best record in your conference necessary, but it does help. And no matter how good your numbers are, you’re not claiming the hardware if your team isn’t among the league’s best.

On top of strong team success, you need big-time numbers. MVP winners typically lead the league in scoring or are at least close to it. The ones that don’t need to dominate in another fashion like Steve Nash, who averaged a double-double in his two MVP wins.

Sometimes the MVP race goes deeper with advanced metrics playing a role. This isn’t always a deciding factor, of course, and is often used more to differentiate in the event of a tight MVP race.

Just as meaningful as those criteria, however, is a good storyline. Narrative is important to a strong NBA MVP case, although we’ve seen people win it without it.

Lastly, you need to play most of the year. It’s hard to be the MVP of your own team – let alone the face of the NBA – if you’re not actually on the court. As long as you check all of these boxes, you’re at least in the conversation.

Recent NBA MVP Winners

2025-26 NBA MVP Prediction – Who Will Win?

All roads undeniably lead back to SGA. The NBA media fawns over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and it doesn’t appear that anyone voting on the NBA MVP winner cares about his negatives. And the betting apps seem to feel the same way.

To be fair, nobody can rival his efficiency, team success, or across-the-board elite play. The fact that he’s not a minus on defense like some other candidates also aids his case.

If SGA doesn’t win, my next best bet is Luka. He is crushing statistically, and if the Lakers can push their way to the 2nd or 3rd seed, I think he has a real chance to unseat SGA. That said, NBA MVP winners can repeat when the case is as strong as it is with SGA. Perhaps Luka will be a more compelling bet next year.