Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction (June 6, 2025) – Roland Garros Semifinal

Top seed Jannik Sinner hasn’t lost a Grand Slam match this year, and now he’s up against sixth seed Djokovic, and it’ll be a test. Novak is after his 25th Grand Slam title, and he’s not easy to beat at Roland Garros.

The two players are tied at 4–4 in head-to-heads, but Sinner has won the last three, one being a straight-setter in Shanghai. Sinner’s the favorite on form, but Djokovic has made his career out of not buckling under pressure.

Who will make it to the finals in Paris? Will Sinner nab his first French Open win? We’re serving up all you need to know!

Match Details

  • Date: Friday, June 6
  • Time: 11:25 am EDT
  • Venue: Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland Garros
  • Surface: Clay
  • How to Watch (TV): TNT Sports 1 and 4
  • Streaming: Discovery+

Betting Odds

If you’re betting on Sinner vs. Djokovic, look below for the current odds and lines via DraftKings Sportsbook:

  • Jannik Sinner: – 450
  • Novak Djokovic: +330
  • Over/Under Total Games: Over 36.5 (-115), Under 36.5 (-120)

Head-to-Head Snapshot

Sinner and Djokovic have played eight times, splitting the series evenly at 4–4, but Sinner is favored based on recent results:

  • All-Time Record: Tied 4-4

Recent Meetings

  • 2024 Australian Open Semifinal: Sinner def. Djokovic (retirement – injury)
  • 2023 ATP Finals: Sinner def. Djokovic in straight sets
  • 2023 Wimbledon Quarterfinal: Djokovic def. Sinner in three sets

Player Form & Stats

Sinner has handled every opponent in straight sets and hasn’t been pushed past 6–4 in a single set. Djokovic has had a rougher road; he’s dropped sets and played longer matches, but his control of important points hasn’t diminished.

Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner

  • Current Ranking: World No. 1
  • 2025 Grand Slam Record: 19–0
  • French Open 2025: Has not lost a set
  • Serve Speed: Up to 252 km/h
  • Notable Wins: Defeated Alexander Bublik in straight sets in the quarterfinals
Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic

  • Current Ranking: World No. 6
  • Age: 38
  • French Open 2025: Reached his 13th semifinal
  • Quarterfinal Performance: Beat Alexander Zverev in four sets
  • Milestone: Recorded his 100th career win on the clay at Roland Garros

Key Match Factors

Sinner has controlled his matches from the first serve, won in straight sets, and keeps opponents from dragging out points. Djokovic has taken longer routes, but he is always composed in deciding moments. It could come down to how well each of them manages service games under pressure and maintains focus in the longer baseline rallies.

  • Sinner’s Grand Slam Form: 19–0 this season with few breaks of serve and minimal time spent defending from the baseline in rallies.
  • Djokovic’s Experience: Playing his 49th major semifinal, he has the ability to change his strategy mid-match and stay calm when the score is close.
  • Physical Matchup: Sinner has more speed and range. Djokovic continues to manage his movement well, even during marathon matches.
  • Pressure Management: Sinner has closed sets when he’s ahead. Djokovic handles high-pressure return games better than anyone else on tour.

Best Bets

Want to know what we are checking out? Here are our three picks for your best bets:

  1. Match Winner: Jannik Sinner (-450) | Sinner is 19–0 in majors this season and hasn’t been pushed past 6–4 in any set at Roland Garros. He’s won recent matches against Djokovic and hits the court with more control from the baseline and if he has any physical concerns, no one knows about them.
  2. Total Games Over/Under: (-115) | Sinner and Djokovic both have monster first serves, so it’s likely that they’ll split at least one set; this one has room to go long enough for the over to land.
  3. Set Betting: Sinner to win 3-1 | Djokovic could take a set with early pressure or a long tiebreak, but Sinner’s current level points to him closing this out in four.

FYI: Check the latest lines before you make any bets! The markets can move before the match starts.

Sinner vs. Djokovic: Our Final Take

Final Match Prediction

– Jannik Sinner def. Novak Djokovic – 3 sets to 1 (6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 6-2)

Sinner uses his speed and shot accuracy to get past Djokovic in four sets.

The top-ranked player in the world is pitted against a three-time French Open champion, but Sinner is unbeaten in majors this season and has advanced through the draw in Paris without losing a set. Djokovic, 38, has taken on longer matches, but still wins points in crunch time.

Sinner has won their last three matches, including a straight-sets victory in Melbourne this year. Djokovic brings far more experience, but he’s up against a 22-year-old player with more raw power.

If you’re betting on this one, here’s where the best value is:

  • Match Winner: Sinner (-450)
  • Total Games: Over (-115)
  • Set Score: Sinner to win 3–1

Looking for a new sportsbook or want to compare prices? Check out our list of recs for the best betting apps!

UFC 316 Predictions: Best Bets & Fight Card Preview

*ding ding ding* It’s Round 2 for Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley! This is a rematch made for hardcore UFC fans. There’s beef, a title at stake, and these two want to beat the ever-loving you-know-what out of each other.

Dvalishvili barreled through O’Malley the first time. Six takedowns. Three rounds of insane pressure. O’Malley couldn’t get going and looked out of his league when the fight became a grind. And now? It’s personal. He’s been rebuilding from the ground up with new training partners and drilling nonstop so that he doesn’t get stuck on his back like a turtle again.

Merab’s camp hasn’t been clean. He fractured his pinky toe in mid-May but kept sparring, barely missed any time, and told his team he’d fight anyway because he still has nine other toes. That’s where his mind is coming into Jersey.

As for the co-main event, we’ve got two totally different styles of fighters. Peña’s banking on her experience, and Kayla Harrison’s been ragdolling everyone who’s put in front of her. That includes her last UFC bout, where she tossed Chelsea Chandler across the Octagon and finished it in less than six minutes. Peña’s tough, but toughness doesn’t help when someone’s pinning your wrists and dropping elbows.

Top to bottom, this card is built on violence. Big names, aggressive styles, and a few matchups that feel like they were designed to end inside the first two rounds.

Below, we are gonna do a full breakdown of the card, our expert predictions, and what we think are the best bets if you’re putting some money on UFC 316!

Event Details

  • Date: June 7, 2025
  • Location: Prudential Center in Newark, NJ
  • Early Prelims: 6:00 pm ET (ESPN+/Disney+)
  • Prelims: 8:00 pm ET (ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+)
  • Main Card: 10:00 pm ET (ESPN+ PPV)
  • See the full UFC 316 card

Main Event Breakdown: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2

This fight is about two things: endurance and punishment.

  • Champion: Merab Dvalishvili (19-4)
  • Challenger: Sean O’Malley (18-2)
  • Odds: Dvalishvili -280 | O’Malley +240 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Main Storylines

Dvalishvili broke him with pace and pressure in their first fight. He racked up six takedowns—three of them in the opening four minutes—and kept O’Malley on his back foot from the opening exchange. By the middle of round two, O’Malley had landed only one clean strike. The rest of the fight? He was just trying to peel Merab off him.

O’Malley has been overhauling everything. He spent two weeks at Mighty Mouse’s gym drilling scramble chains, brought in Ryan Hall for defensive jiu-jitsu, and logged over 100 rounds of live wrestling with bigger training partners during his Arizona camp. He also got leaner in the hopes of having quicker lateral movement.

On May 13, during Merab’s training, he broke his pinky toe in a sparring round in Tbilisi. He skipped roadwork for six days but never stopped drilling or grappling. Since then, he’s added two pounds of muscle and claims his VO2 max is the best it’s ever been. His coaches say his mat returns have gotten faster and that he’s been overpowering bigger wrestlers in training.

If O’Malley gets walked down again and ends up with his back to the cage by the end of round one, he’s going to get mauled. But if he can stay upright and land something heavy before the midway point of round two, it’ll be a real fight.

Co-Main Event: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison

Peña may have the belt, but Harrison’s the heavy favorite for a reason.

  • Champion: Julianna Peña (13-5)
  • Challenger: Kayla Harrison (18-1)
  • Odds: Harrison -590 | Peña +370 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Main Storylines

Harrison’s last fight lasted 5:47. She dragged Chandler to the mat twice, moved to mount, and finished with strikes. Her top game is built around pressure, balance, and control, and she gives no openings once she’s in position.

Peña’s been out for over a year. She cracked two ribs last July in a scramble with Raquel Pennington and tweaked her wrist during recovery. She’s tough, throws volume, and can scrap in the pocket, but she’s been overwhelmed by stronger grapplers before.

If Harrison gets inside early? Peña’s getting planted. Staying upright through the first five minutes is her best shot.

Main Card Matchups

All of the fights on the main card could end in the first 10 minutes. These fighters have zero interest in dragging it out any longer than that!

1. Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

Odds: Pyfer -300 | Gastelum +250

Gastelum’s dropped five of his last seven and hasn’t looked good since his fight with Adesanya. He’s slower at 185 and takes more damage than he used to. Pyfer’s not technical, but he doesn’t need to be; he doesn’t wait, and he’s stopped four of his last five inside the first round and hurts anyone who hesitates.

Four of his last five wins came inside the opening round. If Gastelum’s circling without throwing? He will not last long.

2. Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix

Odds: Mix -110 | Bautista -110

Mix is a finisher—13 submission wins, most of them before the halfway point of round two. He ran through Bellator’s top bantamweights and enters the UFC with a solid grappling edge. Bautista’s the better striker, but his takedown defense hasn’t held up against strong chain-wrestlers. If Mix gets control early? It could end for Bautista.

3. Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland

Odds: Holland -160 | Luque +140

Luque absorbs a lot of shots but still keeps coming. His last clean win was over RDA, and he throws in volume, even if his defense has slipped a little. Holland’s longer, moves better, and works well from range, but he gets drawn into heavy exchanges. First clean shot could end this within five minutes, so we don’t expect it to go the distance.

Best Bets & Predictions

Where do we see the best betting value on UFC 316? Based on style matchups, recent form, and how each fighter usually wins or loses, here are the four we think have the most value!

Merab Dvalishvili to Win by Decision (-110)

He took O’Malley down six times in the last fight and held position for over seven minutes. Unless O’Malley lands something clean in the first round, this will go the same way—pressure, mat returns, control. Merab hasn’t finished anyone since 2018; he breaks down his opponents.

Kayla Harrison to Win Inside the Distance (-200)

Peña hasn’t fought in over a year and comes in off of two separate injuries. Harrison’s last fight ended with elbows from mount in round one. If Peña gets planted once, she’s not getting back up without any damage.

Patchy Mix to Win by Submission (+150)

Mix finishes on the ground lightning fast; he has 13 career subs, and most have been in the first two rounds. Bautista has a hard time against strong grapplers, and if Mix gets his back, he closes fast. This one is the clearest prop on the card.

Over 2.5 Rounds in Luque vs. Holland (-120)

Luque and Holland can crack, but they’ve both gone the distance in four of their last six. Holland tends to slow the tempo when he’s winning, and Luque’s chin has held up even in fights where he’s been tagged. Unless someone gets caught clean in round one, this will likely hit the over.

Closing Thoughts & Main Event Prediction

Let’s run it back with the numbers that make the most sense based on matchup dynamics, fight history, and what each fighter usually does under pressure:

  • Merab Dvalishvili by Decision (-110)
  • Kayla Harrison Inside the Distance (-200)
  • Patchy Mix by Submission (+150)
  • Over 2.5 Rounds in Luque vs. Holland (-120)

The Fight We’re Most Excited to Watch

Bautista vs. Mix is the one to watch. Both open fast, and once one of them takes control, it won’t take long. If Mix gets position early, it turns into a grappling clinic. If Bautista keeps it upright, it’ll be an absolute banger.

X-Factors to Watch

A few wild cards could change how all of these fights play out:

  • Merab’s broken toe kept him out of conditioning for close to a week. He trained through it, but cardio pacing might be different.
  • O’Malley overhauled his training environment mid-camp. That can work, or it can backfire.
  • Peña hasn’t fought in over a year and goes into the octagon after fractured ribs and a wrist strain; those aren’t small potatoes.
  • Mix is fighting under UFC lights for the first time. Some fighters adapt, but some don’t.

Final Prediction: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2

If it stays upright for a decent amount of time, O’Malley has a chance. But it probably won’t. Merab closes space way too well and stays super glued to his opponents.

  • Pick: Merab Dvalishvili
  • Method: Unanimous Decision
  • Why: The blueprint hasn’t changed. Merab keeps the pace high, chains takedowns, and wears his opponents out. Unless O’Malley clips him clean inside the first seven minutes, this will be one-sided again.

FYI: Odds can change closer to fight time, so check the latest on your sportsbook! You can check out our recs for the best ufc betting apps, and always gamble responsibly.

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Prediction (June 5, 2025)

Welp, the Yankees went down 4-0 in the Bronx—their home turf. Oof. The Guardians scored 3 runs in the first inning, so their rotation was working tonight as opposed to the previous games against NY. As for the Yankees? They got their first extra-base hit in the bottom of the ninth inning. What a difference a night makes!

It’s tied up 3-3, and we all want to see what happens next at Yankee Stadium in the next matchup. The Yanks want to stop at the top of the AL East, and Cleveland wants to get a better footing in the league.

Will pitchers Max Fried vs. Slade Cecconi make a difference in the next game? Keep reading to find out what the odds and trends are and for our picks for the best bets!

Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Cleveland Guardians (33–27) vs. New York Yankees (37–23)
  • Date & Time: Thursday, June 5, at 7:05 pm ET
  • Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
  • Broadcast: YES Network
  • Weather: Clear skies with a temperature around 73°F

Prediction Breakdown

Guardians 38.2%
Yankees 61.8%

According to GamblingSite.com

Pitching Matchup

The Yankees and Guardians will close out their three-game set Thursday night in the Bronx. New York is sending Max Fried to the mound—they don’t want a repeat of the last game. Cleveland counters with Slade Cecconi, who’s trying to find his place in the rotation. Here’s how these two throwers compare!

Max Fried - New York Yankees

Yankees: Max Fried (7-1, 1.92 ERA)

Fried’s been one of the most reliable arms in the league this year. He’s killed it at Yankee Stadium with an ERA under 2.00 and has held hitters to minimal damage all season. He is coming off a rare misstep against the Dodgers, where he gave up six runs, but there’s no indication of a bigger issue. 

Slade Cecconi - Cleveland Guardians

Guardians: Slade Cecconi (1-1, 5.28 ERA)

Cecconi hasn’t quite settled in since being moved into the rotation. He gave up five runs in four innings his last time out and has already allowed five home runs in only three starts. His fastball has been meh, and command issues have put him in bad spots early in counts. Against a deep Yankees lineup? He’s a risk.

Team Form & Trends

The Yankees have been solid at home. The Guardians have been anything but while on the road.

YankeesGuardians

– 37-23 overall, 1st in AL East
– 19-10 at Yankee Stadium
– Aaron Judge named AL Player of the Month for May

– 33-27 overall, 3rd in AL Central
– 16-16 on the road
– José Ramírez leads the team in home runs and RBIs

Key Player Spotlight

Below are the hitters that will most likely impact Thursday’s game.

Yankees: Aaron Judge

  • Slashed .364/.453/.798 with 11 home runs in May
  • Tough matchup for any right-hander, including Cecconi
  • Leads the team in hitting and extra-base hits

Guardians: José Ramírez

  • Team leader in RBIs and total bases
  • Brings power from both sides of the plate
  • Needs to produce if Cleveland’s going to break through against Fried

Latest Betting Odds

Below are the latest odds from DraftKings and we think there is some value to be found.

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal Runs

Guardians

+1.5 (+105)

+215

Over 8.5 (-120)

Yankees

-1.5 (-125)

-265

Under 8.5 (+100)

Best Bets

Here’s where we think the smart money is if you’re betting on this one!

  • Yankees -1.5 (-125) | With Fried on the mound and a deeper lineup? The Yankees are in a really good spot to cover a multi-run spread.
  • Under 8.5 Runs (+100) | Fried has kept scoring in check all season long, and Cleveland hasn’t generated much offense on the road. A lower total feels right..
  • Yankees First 5 Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-110) | Fried controls games in early innings, and the Guardians have been really slow to start. Backing New York through five innings makes sense in this spot.

Closing Pitch: Yankees Look to Dominate

Max Fried gives the Yankees an advantage in the series finale. He’s been hard to hit at home, and Slade Cecconi has had some issues keeping the ball in the park. The Yankees have hit well in the Bronx, and the Guardians haven’t done much of anything on the road.

Top Betting Picks

  • Yankees -1.5 (+105)
  • Under 8.5 (-110)
  • Yankees First 5 Innings -0.5 (-110)

Fried’s form, paired with home-field advantage and a stronger top-to-bottom batting order, makes the Yankees the safer side to back in this one.

Final Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Guardians 2

New York has the better starter, has a more reliable offense at home, and a bullpen that handles late-game spots really well. Fried should keep Cleveland in check while the Yankees do enough to pull away.

Be cautious with over bets! Both teams have shown they can limit scoring, so if you’re targeting any of these lines, it’s always wise to act early before the odds move closer to the first pitch!

Check the latest odds at your preferred sportsbook before betting. And as always—wager responsibly and never risk more than you can afford to lose.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction (June 5, 2025) – Roland Garros Semifinal Showdown

Roland Garros isn’t waiting for the final for one of its biggest tennis matches. The top two women players in the world are playing in the tournament, and it’ll be hardcore tennis.

Aryna Sabalenka has bulldozed her way through everyone this year; she’s won titles in Brisbane and Madrid and solidified her place as World No. 1 Iga Swiatek is just behind her in the rankings, but she’s held her ground in Paris—she hasn’t lost a match there since 2020.

Swiatek is after a French Open four in a row, a feat that would put her in rare company in the Open Era. Sabalenka hasn’t won this tournament…yet. She seems to have figured out playing on the slower clay, worked on her second serve, and has more control of her power-heavy baseline game.

These two have previously met twelve times. Swiatek is ahead 8–4 overall and 5–1 on clay. Sabalenka did win their most recent match, beating her in straight sets in Cincinnati last summer. But Roland Garros is different. The clay is much slower than hard court, the rallies are longer, and Swiatek has dominated here.

Can Sabalenka finally break through, or will Swiatek add another win to her run as Queen of the Red Clay? Let’s find out!

Match Details

  • Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
  • Time: 9:00 am ET
  • Venue: Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland Garros
  • Surface: Clay
  • Broadcast: TNT / HBO Max

Head-to-Head Overview

Swiatek leads the series 8–4 and has won five of their six meetings on clay. In those matches, she controlled the rallies by hitting heavier topspin, targeting Sabalenka’s forehand on the run, and extending points past the four-shot mark.

Sabalenka’s one clay win was in Madrid last year, where the altitude helped her flatten the ball and shorten exchanges. In their most recent match, on hard court in Cincinnati in 2024, she took Swiatek out in straight sets by serving above 70% on first serve and finishing quickly off her insane forehand. She’ll need to do the same in Paris.

Player Profiles & Recent Form

Swiatek and Sabalenka have gotten to the semifinal without dropping a set, but their play is different. Sabalenka has shortened points with aggressive serving and first-strike play. Swiatek has controlled the points with court coverage and precision from the baseline.

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka

  • World No. 1 with titles in Brisbane and Madrid this year
  • Hasn’t lost a set through five rounds at Roland Garros
  • Winning over 70% of first-serve points and averaging fewer than 15 unforced errors per match
  • Forehand has been more controlled on clay, with less risk off the run, more depth up the middle
  • Movement has gotten better; she’s sliding into her shots well and recovering quickly out of corners
  • Has improved point construction on slower surfaces, especially when returning second serves
Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek

  • Three-time defending champion in Paris with 26 straight match wins at Roland Garros
  • Has faced only two break points combined in the last three rounds
  • Using a ton of topspin to push opponents deep and open up angles, particularly from the forehand side
  • Mixing in early backhand redirects to break up the pace and shorten back-and-forths
  • Serve placement has been good; it’s kicking wide on the ad side and flattening into the body
  • Physically looks good; she hasn’t spent more than 90 minutes on court in any match so far during this tournament

Tactical Matchup Analysis

How do Sabalenka and Swiatek’s technical games look when we compare them? Look below!

Sabalenka’s Strengths

  • Flat, early ball-striking allows her to take over from the baseline
  • First serve regularly clears 115 mph and sets up shorter points
  • Has added more spin and margin on clay, which cuts down on unforced errors
  • Looks more balanced when recovering after wide balls, especially on her backhand side

Swiatek’s Strengths

  • Forehand spin forces opponents back, giving her time to reposition and step in
  • Backhand down the line has opened up the court consistently this tournament
  • Anticipates early in rallies and uses positioning to break up aggressive patterns
  • Rarely gives away short balls; her depth neutralizes first-strike players like Sabalenka

If Sabalenka is winning points within the first three shots, she has the advantage. If Swiatek gets into her baseline rhythm and pushes rallies past five shots, Sabalenka’s control starts to go, so it’s about who will dictate the court position.

Betting Insights & Lates Odds

If you’re betting on this semifinal matchup, here are the latest odds and lines via FanDuel:

PlayerMoneylineTotal GamesGame Spread

Sabalenka

-128

Over 22.5 (-106)

-1.5 (-110)

Swiatek

+106

Under 22.5 (-126)

+1.5 (-120)

Best Bets

The odds are really close, but the betting angles are predicting a long and really competitive match. Here’s what we think are the three best bets!

  • Swiatek to Win (+106): She’s 5–1 against Sabalenka on clay and hasn’t lost in Paris since 2020. As an underdog, this number has a lot of value, especially given her advantage in long exchanges.
  • Over 22.5 Games (-106): Even if this ends in two sets, both players are capable of holding serve deep into sets. If it goes three, this total should clear without much sweat.
  • Sabalenka to Serve 5+ Aces: She’s averaging about 6 aces per match this tournament. If she lands above 60% on first serves, this number is well within reach!

Expert Predictions

The tennis experts are divided, but the reasoning they all have makes sense

Those who are leaning toward Swiatek point to her shot selection and stability on clay. She’s won 26 consecutive matches at Roland Garros and holds a 5–1 edge over Sabalenka on this surface. Her topspin forehand, early backhand changes, and ability to reset baseline exchanges have consistently disrupted Sabalenka’s game.

Others are backing Sabalenka based on her current form. She hasn’t dropped a set in Paris, has kept unforced errors down, and is hitting her spots on serve. Her footwork has held up well even when drawn wide, and she’s finishing points earlier in the rally than in her past matches on clay.

The general expectation? A three-set match where service holds are common, but the pressure builds as return depth increases and the margins close in. It very likely will come down to whether Sabalenka can stay controlled late in sets, or if Swiatek can extend baseline patterns long enough to wear her down.

Swiatek or Sabalenka: Our Pick for the Roland Garros Final Spot

Sabalenka has held court all tournament; she’s winning short points, limiting unforced errors, and nailing her serve and forehand. She’s handled every match without needing to make many adjustments and hasn’t shown signs of fatigue.

Swiatek is more experienced on this surface, understands how to disrupt the tempo, and doesn’t give opponents an inch. Her advantage on clay comes from how well she resets points and builds patterns without overhitting. That’s been the difference in five of their six clay court meetings.

The head-to-head leans toward Swiatek, especially on slower courts. Sabalenka has made this matchup closer in the last year, but she still has a hard time when she’s forced into fourth- and fifth-ball decisions outside of her strike zone. If it goes past the opening 45 minutes, Swiatek’s ability to absorb pressure and counterpunch is much harder to crack.

Crowd energy will likely favor Swiatek, as she’s won here three straight years and has earned that respect. But Sabalenka plays well even if the crowd is cheering for her opponent and likes the tension, not to mention that this is the best we’ve seen her play on clay.

Final Prediction

  • Iga Swiatek def. Aryna Sabalenka in 3 sets (4–6, 6–3, 7–5)
  • Our Best Bet: Over 22.5 total games (-110)

Swiatek’s combo of precision and patience gives her the advantage in a long match, but Sabalenka will make her work for every single point. There’ll be lots of extended baseline exchanges, close service games, and one or two turning points if it goes to a third set.

Note: Always gamble responsibly. For the latest odds and best bonuses, check out our picks for the best betting sites!

Are Sportsbooks Targeting Addicts? A Look at Marketing Tactics

Sportsbooks are having a field day. Betting is booming, and it’s everywhere you look—even if you aren’t looking for it.

Turn on the TV? Commercials from BetMGM. Watch TikTok? Promoted ads from DraftKings. Instagram and Facebook? FanDuel. You get the general idea. If you have zero interest in sports betting, you are still exposed to tons of marketing from these entities.

There are everyday ads, special game day ads, and targeted push alerts for users. The platforms are dueling it out in the media in a fierce competition for your attention and your money. And as the industry gets more sophisticated? The marketing tactics follow suit. Which poses a tough but legit question: Do some of these ads target the most vulnerable players? The ones who are having a hard time stopping?

That’s what we want to know! Keep reading to discover what we found out about how sportsbooks use data, design, and psychology to keep people betting, and if that the line between marketing and manipulation is bordering on nonexistent.

The Rise of Personalized Sports Betting Ads

The marketing machine has gone from mass promotion to one-on-one persuasion. Ads used to be limited to TV and stadium banners, but sportsbook ads got a digital glow-up, and they’re following users from social media platforms to inboxes. How do sportsbooks use our data, habits, and behavioral triggers to time their ads perfectly, and, in some cases, problematically? Let’s get into it!

From TV Spots to TikTok — How Sportsbooks Found You

Ten years ago, sportsbook marketing meant just TV ads and stadium sponsorships. Today? It’s hyper-personalized and follows you everywhere you go. In the early days of legal U.S. sports betting (post-2018), companies like DraftKings and FanDuel blanketed the airwaves and plastered their logos in sports arenas. Sports broadcasts began to feature odds updates, and podcasts got peppered with betting ads. But traditional ads were just the beginning.

Modern sportsbooks have shifted gears to digital and data-driven tactics. They track your clicks and bets in granular detail and then tailor promos to your behavior. Social media and mobile apps are the new frontier; sports betting companies have partnered with influencers and used platforms like TikTok to reach new audiences, and a major bookmaker ran TikTok ads targeting young women to broaden its mostly male user base. 

Sports Betting Apps Ads Icon

Push notifications on your phone prod you with “special offers” at the right (or wrong) moments. A dormant customer could get a text for a “limited-time” free bet bundle, and that’s dangerous if you’ve been trying to cut down or stop. And if you do stop, you’re likely to get a “we miss you” reactivation bonus, as the companies openly talk about “win-back” campaigns to lure back lapsed users.

How Do They Know?

Behavioral tracking and AI have enabled platforms to analyze everything. Like your favorite teams, how much you wager, when you bet, and which bets you almost won. If you always bet on the Warriors, don’t be shocked when your app serves up a boosted odds promo on the next Warriors game. 

A betting tech CEO explained how their AI engine personalizes offers based on each user’s habits, suggesting “Because you bet on this, you might also like this” bets to keep users playing. 72% of sportsbook operators surveyed said a “personalized player experience” is the biggest factor in keeping customers betting.

The targeted tactics represent a huge evolution from the one-size billboard ad. Sportsbook marketing has become a 24/7, personalized dialogue, trailing you from TV to X to the phone you’re holding. The convenience is undeniable, but so is the concern that this kind of precision is being used to exploit our weaknesses.

Behavioral Psychology Behind the Promotions

You’ve no doubt seen a “risk-free bet” or a bonus pop up at just the right time, and it’s no coincidence. Read on to find out how sportsbooks use psychology, aka dopamine triggers, loss-chasing incentives, and near-miss rewards, to make betting addictive by design.

Free Bets Aren’t Really Free

Just like a physical casino, it’s not an accident that sportsbooks and gambling sites are addictive. The platforms are all engineered with the same psychology that casinos have used forever; only now it’s been supercharged for mobile. What are some of the powerful hooks that are built into betting promos and apps? The following:

Reward Loops & Dopamine Hits

Making a bet (and hoping for a win) triggers a surge of dopamine, which is our brain’s pleasure chemical. Sportsbook apps capitalize on this by offering users constant mini-rewards. Every animation for a win, or a near-win, delivers a quick neurological “high” that keeps you returning. The apps are built to make every second of a game feel high-stakes, “Delivering a hit of dopamine each time you bet, win, or almost win,” as one psychologist said.

Loss-Chasing and Reinforcement

The opposite of the highs are the lows, and betting promos are ready to catch you when you hit the floor. Sportsbooks frequently dangle “second chance” or “no-sweat” bets that refund your stake (as site credit) after a loss, conditioning you to keep betting. This feeds into the classic gambling fallacy of chasing losses. Your tolerance builds, and the small bets don’t feel like they used to, so bettors will up the ante or try parlays to recapture that rush. It’s a dangerous reinforcement cycle: the more you play (even if you’re losing), the more the app nudges you to play again.

Near-Miss Effect

In gambling psychology, “near misses” (almost winning) can be as motivating as the wins. Sports betting is full of near misses, like losing a parlay by one leg or a last-second bad beat on a point spread. Bettors who lose by a smidge usually feel encouraged rather than discouraged, which sportsbooks implicitly exploit. Promotions like parlay insurance (“money back if you lose one leg”) highlight your near-miss, and that tempts you to try again. The apps know that almost hitting a big win will light up your brain’s reward pathways and spur more bets.

FOMO and Timed Offers

Sportsbooks also use the fear of missing out to prompt impulsive bets. Limited-time odds boosts, one-day bonus tokens, and countdown timers on promotions create a false sense of urgency. A push notification will announce “Today only: Bet $50, get $50 free!,” and that will push you to feel like you have to act now or regret it later. The tactics leverage our aversion to missing a deal. Experts say that push alerts stressing urgency and scarcity are a big red flag, especially if they’re sent to someone who is trying to stay away. The offer of “10 free bets” expiring at midnight can be the siren song that pulls a vulnerable user right back in.

Sticky App Design

In addition to the promos, the app UX is deliberately built to keep you hooked. Depositing and betting are one-click easy, and self-exclusion or setting limits are sometimes buried in the menus. Bright colors and casino-style sounds celebrate wins, and your losses are less visibly tracked—there is no running total of the money you’ve lost. The apps also bombard you with continuous prompts; as soon as you place one bet, a pop-up suggests another.

And sportsbook accounts are notorious for being hard to close—you have to jump through a ton of hoops and call the platform to confirm. All of the above dark design patterns make it questionable if it’s a fun experience or a manipulative one, as they make sure that users stay longer, bet more, and have a harder time walking away.

Who’s Most at Risk?

Then there are the bettors who get the “VIP” treatment, but that’s not always a good thing. Customers are treated differently based on how much they spend, and sportsbooks use that to zero in on them with the most aggressive marketing tactics.

Data-Driven or Dangerously Predatory?

The biggest spenders (aka whales) and most frequent gamblers, who are those who are in the highest risk category, always get the most aggressive attention. The high-value customers are courted with VIP perks, personal managers, and constant offers.

A recent UK court case revealed just how predatory this can get. A recovering gambling addict testified that a betting company bombarded him with over 1,300 promotional emails in two years. He had never meaningfully consented to this kind of marketing and was spending all of his wages on bets, which is an obvious sign of problem gambling.

Instead of flagging him as high-risk, the company labeled him a “high-value” VIP. Internal documents showed that when he did finally stop gambling, they immediately started to strategize how to “win back” what they saw as a “lucrative customer.” The judge in the case condemned the firm’s use of personal data and ruled the targeting was unlawful and “parasitic” given the man’s impaired ability to consent due to addiction. This is a stark example of data-driven marketing overriding basic ethics.

Mobile App Loyalty Program 3D Icon

And it’s by no means an isolated incident. Watchdogs have long noted that VIP and loyalty programs ensnare problem gamblers. A leaked industry report in Britain found that a tiny fraction of customers (usually VIPs) generated a huge share of deposits—at one betting firm, only 2% of users accounted for 83% of all deposits. The VIPs were disproportionately likely to be addicts or on the verge. The companies lured them in with free bets, cashback on losses, and event tickets, which were basically rewards for being a big loser.

It’s not surprising that U.K. regulators cited VIP schemes as a factor in 7 out of 10 regulatory penalties for failing to protect problem gamblers. The UK Gambling Commission eventually stepped in with strict new rules to curb “irresponsible VIP practices,” warning that companies have to do thorough checks before showering perks on someone who might be gambling beyond their means.

In the U.S., regulation hasn’t yet caught up to such tactics, and some operators are really pushing the envelope. Internal job postings have hinted at priorities that put profit over player safety.

FanDuel, owned by Flutter Entertainment, advertised VIP account manager roles that were expected to “increase player activity and drive revenue.” Their job description is to get the top customers to bet more, which is way different than Flutter’s practice in the U.K., where VIP managers aren’t incentivized by customer spending, specifically to avoid problematic exploitation. FYI: FanDuel removed that specific phrasing after it drew scrutiny in 2024.

And although British online casinos have limits like a £10 cap per slot spin to slow down high rollers, the same company’s U.S. platforms allow far higher bets in the absence of such rules. All of this suggests that, in newer markets like the U.S., data-driven targeting of big spenders slides into dangerously predatory territory before regulators can pump the brakes.

Who else is at risk? Marketing algorithms also single out people who exhibit “chase” behavior or other red-flag patterns. Those who regularly deposit after losses or play at 3 am will get tagged for special offers, when in reality they’re showing signs of distress. Insiders and experts worry that with advanced AI, sportsbooks could identify and exploit susceptible gamblers with chilling precision.

Dr. Timothy Fong of UCLA’s Gambling Studies Program said, “AI can create predatory scenarios, where people who are already vulnerable because of mental health issues or a gambling addiction could be manipulated or targeted without their knowledge.” In other words, the same data tools that could be used to intervene and help are being used to maximize revenue from those who are least able to resist.

Ultimately, problem gamblers and those who are teetering on the edge are at the highest risk of being targeted by intense marketing. They bet more, so they’re valued more, which is a bleak reality. 

An addiction advocate asked, “What percentage of gambling profits come from those with a disorder?” The answer? Several analyses suggest that it’s alarmingly high, anywhere from 15% on the low end to possibly one-third or more of revenues coming from people with gambling problems. This creates a perverse incentive: the house needs its most addicted players to keep playing. And that makes the line between “VIP treatment” and predation very, very thin.

Loopholes in Self-Exclusion and Compliance

If you’re trying to slow down or quit? Welp, the ads might not let you. Self-exclusion is supposed to give gamblers a way out, but there are big holes in the system that allow marketing messages to get through. Sportsbooks (and affiliates) still reach self-banned users, and the fragmented oversight just isn’t cutting it.

When Self-Bans Fail and Ads Keep Coming

There are people who know that they have a gambling problem, and self-exclusion programs are supposed to be a lifeline, and in theory, they are! . You can ban yourself from betting sites and casinos, and the companies have to stop taking your bets and stop marketing to you. 

Unfortunately, this is full of loopholes, and addicted gamblers are pushed by the marketing that they tried to escape.

A glaring example happened in the UK during what was ironically the “Safer Gambling Week.” Flutter’s Sky Bet brand mistakenly sent out a blast email with a bonus offer (“Take a peek at what your mystery bonus is… opt in, spend £5 and claim your 100 free spins”) to thousands of people, including recovering addicts who had self-excluded from all gambling. 

The people had taken the proactive step to ban themselves via the GamStop program, yet here they were, getting a tempting promo right in their inbox. The fallout was quick: regulators launched a probe, Sky Bet apologized, and campaigners were outraged.

A self-excluded man said, “They shouldn’t be targeting anyone, let alone people who’ve told them they have a problem… I tried to access my account [after that email].” And a former party leader in Parliament lambasted it as “Outrageous…self-regulation doesn’t work…People trying to stop are being targeted, like throwing a free shot of tequila at an alcoholic.”

That incident exposed a loophole: Human or system error can accidentally (or carelessly) keep problem gamblers on marketing lists. Regulators in jurisdictions explicitly ban contacting self-excluded patrons, as it’s a basic responsible gambling requirement, but we keep seeing failures. 

In the U.S., Caesars Entertainment was fined for sending promo emails to 231 people on the self-exclusion list, soliciting their business. PointsBet sportsbook was also fined after it sent over 500 marketing texts/emails to self-excluded individuals due to a “technical glitch.” Every single one of those contacts is a potential trigger for relapse. The people who are trying hardest to quit are being dangled bait, and even if it’s a mistake, it’s negligent.

Then there’s the fragmented nature of self-exclusion databases. Self-exclusion is done state-by-state or operator-by-operator. If you ban yourself from one app or in one state, another company might not know about it. A problem gambler could self-exclude from all the apps in New Jersey, but then get sign-up offers when they cross into Pennsylvania or when a new sportsbook launches that isn’t part of a unified program. 

Unlike the UK’s GamStop, which has one national database that operators have to check, the U.S. lacks a universal system, though the major firms have begun discussing sharing exclusion data. Until recently, major U.S. operators weren’t sharing lists of problem gamblers with each other at all, meaning that someone who is barred on FanDuel could just hop on DraftKings unnoticed.

Even within a single platform, slick marketing finds its way around self-exclusion. Affiliate marketing and third-party ads are a gray area. You can unsubscribe from Operator so-and-so’s emails, but if an affiliate website you gave your email to is promoting Operator so-and-so, you still get indirectly targeted. Worse, investigative reports found gambling sites covertly used tools like Meta’s tracking pixel to tag visitors and then bombard them with betting ads on Facebook, all without clear consent. 

So even if you don’t sign up or you actively opt out, just visiting a sportsbook site can cause your data to be shared with ad networks that will keep pitching you bets as you browse the web. U.K. lawmakers called out these secret data-sharing practices as “out of control,” noting how they undermine attempts by vulnerable individuals to disconnect.

Finally, accounts are really hard to truly “delete.” Users have complained that after self-excluding, they keep getting generic sports updates or game result notifications from apps. The content isn’t overtly a promo, but it could still pull them back in.

The Industry’s Defense

The sportsbooks all say that they’re doing their part, but are they really?

There are responsible gambling tools and public pledges, as the companies insist that they’re not preying on addicts. Here’s what they claim, what they offer, and where those efforts look and sound more like PR than protection for players.

What the Sportsbooks Have to Say in Response

Sportsbook operators insist that they are deeply committed to ethical marketing and player safety. If you listen to the companies themselves, you’ll hear a lot about “responsible gambling” tools and initiatives. So, what do they claim, and how does it measure up?

First of all, the major platforms all highlight the suite of safety features that are built into their apps: deposit limits, loss limits, wager caps, cool-off periods, self-exclusion options, etc.

Players are able to set up daily or monthly deposit maximums, or get a pop-up after a certain number of hours of play that tells them to take a break. Sportsbooks also run “reality check” features that remind you of the time or money spent. All this is usually accessible under account settings.

The caveat? Very few people actually use them. Research from New Jersey found that only about 1% to 5% of young bettors are using the voluntary limit-setting tools, and that’s a teeny fraction. Yes, the tools exist, but they usually serve as talking points rather than solid safeguards for the masses.

The industry also touts its responsible marketing codes. In the U.S., the American Gaming Association (AGA) has a marketing code of conduct that members say they follow, like no advertising to minors, clear “21+” and problem-gambling warnings on ads, etc.  

All sportsbook commercials or billboards now have the tagline: “Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.” And in fine print, they list eligibility and terms. The companies argue that the disclaimers and the promotion of helplines demonstrate their commitment to mitigating harm. 

The critics? They think that a tiny footer or a rushed voice-over in an ad is pretty much worthless for problem gamblers. How many addicted gamblers will call that number when an ad is hyping up a “free bet” offer?

In public statements, executives stress that they don’t want problem gamblers. They claim it’s bad for business in the long run if customers ruin their lives (and finances). In 2024, seven of the largest U.S. sportsbook companies formed a new trade group, the Responsible Online Gaming Association (ROGA), and pledged over $20 million for research, education, and a “best practices” charter for safer gambling.

The big firms said for the first time that they’ll collaborate to share data on self-excluded and at-risk players, which could help prevent a banned user from just migrating to another platform. It’s a promising step on paper; the group’s mission statement talks about “driving a race to the top” on safety standards and making responsible gambling tools more accessible.

Sportsbook operators also point to the resources they devote to compliance teams and AI monitoring. Most have algorithms that supposedly flag unusual betting patterns that might indicate a problem (like very rapid bets, drastic increases in deposits, etc.). Some have started using predictive models to reach out to players who show signs of trouble, which entails sending them responsible gambling messages or freezing accounts pending review. In regulated markets like the U.K., this is becoming a requirement (affordability checks once losses pass a certain threshold). In the U.S., it’s voluntary so far, but companies say, “We monitor and intervene if and when needed.”

Despite all of their defenses, the effectiveness and sincerity of industry efforts are debated. Critics argue that for all the talk, the proof is sorely lacking. The safety nets have big holes, as one problem gambler was allowed to blow through all his money without intervention until a court intervened. 

And while operators do encourage “responsible play,” they simultaneously inundate users with promos. Professor Heather Wardle, a gambling behavior researcher, said, “It’s convenient for the industry to frame it as ‘all about individual responsibility,’ as it shifts focus off the companies’ aggressive tactics.” Self-imposed limits don’t hurt profits, but stopping targeted ads to a high roller does.

Then there are some in the gambling industry who acknowledge the balance. An AGA spokesperson explained that legal sportsbooks feel pressure to make betting as engaging and frictionless as possible because they’re competing with rivals and black-market sites. The argument goes like this: if we don’t offer big bonuses and fun features, the customer will go somewhere else to get them. And the truth is that marketing is an arms race, particularly in the U.S., where companies spent over a billion dollars on advertising in 2024 to fight for market share. None of them wants to dial back personalized promos and lose ground unilaterally.

So the industry’s answer, broadly, is: “Yes, we market heavily, but we play within the rules and provide tools for anyone who wants to stay in control.” They highlight their responsible gaming messaging, partnerships with addiction research groups, and the fact that many people can and do gamble recreationally without any issues. It’s a balance of “promote the fun, but warn about the risks.”

Is it enough? Most experts and regulators are not anywhere near convinced. They see a huge disconnect between the glossy responsible gambling brochures and the reality of apps that are engineered to maximize play.

Expert Opinions and Red Flags

For years, experts and advocates have been sounding the alarm about gambling addiction and the harm it causes. Part of this is the marketing practices that look way more exploitative than ethical.

Sports Betting Opinions and Red Flags Banner

What the Researchers and Advocates Say

Addiction experts, consumer advocates, and lawmakers have been shouting from the rooftops about the danger of sports betting marketing. To them, a lot of the tactics are not harmless marketing; they’re manipulative and harmful practices. The following are some of the perspectives and concerns from those who are on the front lines of gambling addiction.

  • “They’re using our psychology against us.” Psychologists like Jamie Torrance and Heather Wardle have observed that betting companies are leveraging every trick in the behavioral science book to keep people hooked. “They have all of this knowledge about how the human mind works…and use that knowledge for profits,” Torrance says.  Features like rapid-fire in-play bets, constant notifications, and near-miss teasers are all explicitly designed to undermine a person’s self-control. This has experts worried because it means that someone who is trying to gamble moderately is up against a super sophisticated opponent—the house’s marketing machine.
  • At-risk individuals are exposed to constant triggers. Researchers point out that heavy marketing can hit the hardest on those who can least afford it. Dr. Rachel Volberg, an epidemiologist who studies gambling, says that people in recovery from gambling addiction are the most susceptible to relapse when they’re bombarded by ads. A U.S. editorial described how pervasive betting ads on TV, radio, podcasts, and on the names of sports stadiums are, as it’s comparable to “Putting a whiskey under the nose of a dry alcoholic” for someone who is trying to stop gambling. This saturation of marketing makes addiction counselors nervous, as it normalizes gambling as ubiquitous and makes abstinence or moderation exponentially harder.
  • There’s empirical evidence that some marketing selectively hits those with indicators of problem gambling. Lawsuits filed in the U.S. have accused sportsbooks of “exploiting gambling-naive individuals” and young men with deceptive promos. In the UK, the fact that VIP programs scooped up so many addicts (as found in that secret report) shows a pattern: the biggest losers were groomed with perks to keep them betting, despite obvious harm. Watchdogs call this out as predatory. The UK Gambling Commission tightened rules around inducements and banned certain high-enticement features; they’ve seen how those features correlate with people gambling beyond their means. Iain Duncan Smith, a UK MP advocating gambling reform, said, “The industry’s marketing practices are out of control. Codes of practice are repeatedly shown to be inadequate.”
  • The marketing of so-called “risk-free” bets or “free” credits is another red flag for addiction specialists, who warn that these offers are far from free. They come with strings attached (like needing to wager the credit multiple times) and deceive people into thinking they can’t lose, but people end up losing their own money chasing the bonus. U.S. class-action lawsuits against DraftKings and others allege that such promos are inherently misleading and predatory, creating a false sense of security that encourages higher risk-taking. Regulators in some states have started banning the term “risk-free” in advertising l, and the general consensus among advocates is that ethical marketing wouldn’t need to dangle deceptive “free money” hooks.
  • Experts also highlight that laws and oversight haven’t kept up with the rapid change to personalized, digital betting. Affordability checks, which verify that a gambler can afford their losses, are mandated in some form in the UK, but are nonexistent in the U.S. So a U.S. sportsbook can watch someone drain their bank account without any obligation to step in or even slow down the marketing coming their way. The use of AI for personalization is another grey area: there are no specific rules about how gambling companies can use personal data in many jurisdictions, beyond general data protection laws. When a company can algorithmically pinpoint who is likely an addict, should it not be required to limit or stop promotions to that person? Advocates say yes; the duty of care has to match the sophistication of the tools being used.

The expert consensus is that most sportsbook marketing tactics cross an ethical line, especially regarding vulnerable users. Marketing is expected in any business, but the combo of a highly addictive product, sophisticated targeting, and inadequate oversight makes it a perfect storm for exploitation. Researchers and advocates are urging that we treat gambling advertising with the same skepticism and scrutiny as tobacco advertising, because the cost of doing nothing is measured in ruined finances, fractured families, and lives that are being put at risk.

Conclusion: Good Marketing or Manipulation Tactics?

The surge in sports betting has come with an onslaught of innovative marketing, and with that, a conundrum on what is acceptable advertising and what could be considered dangerous manipulation. 

Look below for a quick recap on what we covered:

  • The sportsbook marketing arms race is happening in front of our eyes; companies deploy every trick in the book to bring in new biz. But those same tactics venture into predatory behavior, especially when it’s aimed at susceptible players.
  • Patterns suggest that problem gamblers are the ones being targeted, not protected. High-risk bettors, aka big losers, self-excluded people, and young, inexperienced men, all tend to get more promos, when ethically they should get fewer or none. The contradiction is at the center of the concern.
  • Regulation hasn’t caught up: Fast-paced innovation in data-driven marketing has outstripped the slow march of regulations. Loopholes mean that harmful practices make it through, and enforcement only comes only after the damage is already done.
  • Pressure is mounting for change: From class-action lawsuits to government inquiries, there’s a growing push for transparency, stronger consumer protections, and accountable marketing. Measures like mandatory data sharing on problem gamblers, limits on bonus offers, and clearer, non-misleading advertising are all being called for.

Is sportsbook marketing “good fun” or a form of exploitation? That depends on where we draw the line. Right now, the balance seems to lean in favor of aggressive growth over caution. As bettors and as a society, recognizing the tactics is a must. The hope is that with greater awareness, better regulation, and a demand for accountability, sports betting can be enjoyed as entertainment without preying on those who are struggling to stop.

Helpful Resource Links

If you think that you or someone you care about is being negatively impacted by gambling, there is help! Look below for a list of resources:

  • National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG): Has a 24/7 confidential helpline (1-800-GAMBLER) and resources for people and families in the U.S.
  • State-Level Problem Gambling Programs: Most U.S. states have their own helplines and counseling services (you can find links via NCPG’s website or your state’s gaming commission).
  • GamCare (UK): Free support, live chat, and the National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133) for anyone who has been affected by gambling in the UK.
  • Gamblers Anonymous: An international support fellowship with local meetings and forums for those who are looking to quit gambling and find community in recovery.

For more info, you can read our comprehensive guide on how gambling addiction starts: the early warning signs!

Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction & Top Bets (June 4, 2025)

The Yankees took Tuesday night’s opener 3–2 behind six innings from Carlos Rodón, and Gleyber Torres and Juan Soto came through with base hits. Clarke Schmidt will start Game 2; he’s allowed just two earned runs in three of his last four showings. He kept walks low and prevented runners from scoring despite pitching from behind in the count.

Cleveland will send out Luis Ortiz, who hasn’t made it out of the fifth in any of his last three starts. He gave up seven hits and four runs to the Angels his last time out and has had a hard time getting swings and misses when working up in the zone.

The Guardians went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position in the opener and have hit only .206 in those spots in their last four games. The Yankees have scored in the first three innings in six straight and have 12 extra-base hits between Aaron Judge and Soto in the last week. If Ortiz doesn’t manage traffic early—by the third or fourth inning—Cleveland could drop another one in the Bronx.

Game Overview

  • Matchup: Cleveland Guardians (32–27) vs. New York Yankees (37–22)
  • Date & Time: Wednesday, June 4, at 7:05 pm ET
  • Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
  • Broadcast: Amazon Prime Video
  • Weather: Clear skies, Wind: 9.2 mph, 81.1 °F

Betting Odds & Lines

The latest betting odds and lines are below, courtesy of BetMGM:

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal Runs

Guardians

+1.5 (-130)

+155

Over 8.5 (-135)

Yankees

-1.5 (+165)

-185

Under 8.5 (+115)

  • Win Probability: Yankees 67.7% | Guardians 32.3%

Starting Pitchers

Who’s throwing tonight? Ortiz for the Guardians and Schmidt for the Yanks.

Luis Ortiz - Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians: Luis Ortiz (RHP)

  • Record: 2–6
  • ERA: 4.40
  • WHIP: 1.43
  • Innings Pitched: 59.1
  • Strikeouts: 64
  • Walks: 30
  • Home Runs Allowed: 7
Clarke Schmidt - New York Yankees

NY Yankees: Clarke Schmidt (RHP)

  • Record: 2–2
  • ERA: 3.95
  • WHIP: 1.27
  • Innings Pitched: 43.1
  • Strikeouts: 42
  • Walks: 20
  • Home Runs Allowed: 5

Team Performance Snapshot

Which team is playing better baseball? Overall, the Yankees have the Guardians beat. Look below for how they compare!

CategoryYankeesGuardians

Batting Average

.258

.234

Runs Scored

322

237

Home Runs

97

61

On-Base Percentage (OBP)

.343

.307

Slugging Percentage (SLG)

.467

.378

Team ERA

3.58

4.05

WHIP

1.18

1.38

Players to Watch

Will there be any players who knock it out of the proverbial park during the game? Here’s who we’re clocking:

Cleveland Guardians

  • José Ramírez (3B): .330 AVG, 11 HR, 29 RBI
  • Carlos Santana (1B): .262 AVG, 7 HR, 29 RBI
  • Steven Kwan (LF): .308 AVG, 5 HR, 21 RBI

New York Yankees

  • Aaron Judge (RF): .387 AVG, 21 HR, 50 RBI
  • Cody Bellinger (LF): .253, 8 HR, 32 RBI
  • Anthony Volpe (SS): Volpe is doing work lately and is contributing big to his team

Recent Trends & Insights

The Guardians came up short, and the Yankees got just enough at the plate and hung on through the final innings. Clarke Schmidt gets the ball for New York next, and Cleveland will attempt to tie up the series behind Luis Ortiz.

Guardians

Cleveland dropped the opener 3–2 after going 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. They’ve scored three runs in four of their last five games, with limited extra-base damage in close spots. Prior to this series, they wrapped up a 4–2 win against the Angels behind a José Ramírez homer and 6 2⁄3 innings of one-hit ball from Gavin Williams.

Yankees

New York has won 11 of its last 15 at Yankee Stadium and keeps striking in the early innings; they’ve scored first in six straight. They beat Cleveland behind Carlos Rodón’s six innings of two-run work and a go-ahead RBI double from Gleyber Torres in the sixth. This was after closing out the Dodgers series with a 7–3 win, where DJ LeMahieu went 4-for-4 and Ryan Yarbrough gave them six.

Pitching Matchup

Luis Ortiz (2–6, 4.40 ERA) gets the ball for Cleveland. He’s allowed three earned runs in three straight starts and issued nine walks during those games. Clarke Schmidt (2–2, 3.95 ERA) counters for the Yankees and has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four outings.

Injuries

Giancarlo Stanton is still out with elbow inflammation and is on the 60-day IL. The Yankees bullpen is also down Luke Weaver, who’s dealing with a hamstring strain. Fernando Cruz might be activated to fill a relief spot.

Best Bets

Where do we think the value is in this matchup? Look below for our best bet picks!

  • Yankees -1.5 (+165) – If Schmidt can pitch into the sixth inning and the bullpen doesn’t whiff it, New York has enough run production to cover.
  • Over 8.5 Runs (-135) – There are a lot of questions about Ortiz’s control, and New York devours fastballs. If Cleveland adds anything, this number has a really strong chance of hitting.
  • Aaron Judge Homers – Judge has already launched 21 homers so far this season, and Yankee Stadium’s right-field setup works in his favor. Since Ortiz’s walk rate and tendency to leave pitches up is, all it takes is one pitch in the wrong spot and see ya!

Closing Thoughts & Betting Recap

Schmidt has been much better lately at working out of traffic, and if he keeps the ball in the yard? Cleveland’s lineup ranks near the bottom of the league in home runs, so he should get through five or six innings. Ortiz has walked seven batters during his last two outings, and if he puts runners on for Judge or Soto, it won’t take much to put runs on the scoreboard.

We like the Yankees -1.5 at plus money and will ride the over if lineups stay locked and loaded. Judge to homer again is always in play because he’s been hitting rockets, and Ortiz, um, has some control issues when he’s on the mound.

Final Score Prediction: Yankees 6, Guardians 3

– New York takes control by the fifth inning
– Schmidt gives them five innings with only a couple of runs allowed before turning it over
– Cleveland gets runners on base early but can’t quite deliver with men in scoring position

Don’t just watch the game—bet it! Head over to our recommended betting sites and get your wager in.

Zverev vs. Djokovic Prediction June 4, 2025 – Roland Garros Quarterfinal

Love him or hate him, Novak Djokovic is one of the best tennis players in the world, and this man can take the heat on and off the court. The more pressure he’s under? The better he plays. 

On the other side of the Roland Garros clay will be Alexander Zverev, who has spent the last two seasons supplying Djokovic with a ton of pressure. They face off again in Paris and are basically dead even in terms of a matchup. Djokovic wants to extend his legacy, and Zverev wants to get one Grand Slam under his Adidas tennis whites. Both are playing well, and sportsbooks show how close the margins are.

Keep scrolling to see all of the details about the match, who we think will win, and the best bets if you’re wagering on it! 

Match Details

  • Date: Wednesday, June 4
  • Time: Not before 1:00 pm ET
  • Venue: Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland Garros
  • Surface: Clay
  • Broadcast: TNT Sports, TruTV, HBO Max (USA); Eurosport (UK); TSN, RDS (Canada)

Betting Odds

The markets are split, but here are the latest odds via FanDuel:

Moneyline

  • Novak Djokovic -116
  • Alexander Zverev -105
  • Total Games Over/Under: 40.5

This probably will change, so check with the books to see if there’s any movement leading up to first serve!

Head-to-Head Snapshot

Djokovic and Zverev’s stats on the court? Djokovic is ahead, but Zverev has beaten him three times, so you have to factor that in—it’s not nothing. 

  • Overall: Djokovic leads 8–5
  • On Clay: Even at 1–1
  • At Majors: Djokovic up 3–1
  • Recent Trend: Zverev has taken 3 of the last 4, including a Melbourne win this year (via retirement)

Player Form & Stats

Where are these two tennis players in terms of physicality and headspace? Look below!

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic

  • Age: 38
  • This Tournament: Into his 19th French Open quarterfinal, and has 100 match wins at Roland Garros
  • Last Match: Beat Norrie handily, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 
  • Service Hold Rate: 91%
  • Break Points Faced: 12 total, saved 10
  • Fitness Notes: No lingering wrist issues. Movement has looked good through four rounds. Energy conservation has been his priority.
Alexander Zverev

Alexander Zverev

  • Age: 28
  • French Open 2025: Advanced past Griekspoor (retired in Round 4)
  • Spring Form: Runner-up in Munich, quarterfinals in Rome
  • Service Hold Rate: 91% (tied with Djokovic)
  • Baseline Exchange Wins: 53% in rallies over 9 shots
  • Physical Notes: Zverev hasn’t had any injury timeouts, no medicals, and no drop-off in later sets. Looks like a clean slate.

Tactical Breakdown

Tennis is a tactical game, so let’s see where the two players could either overpower or fall short.

  • Djokovic: He’s hands down one of the best returners in the game, and he knows how to push Zverev wide early in rallies. His depth control on clay makes him tough to open up. The longer he stays in neutral, the more he relies on shot tolerance and angles to force errors from opponents. His mental edge is excellent and always has been.
  • Zverev: This man has a gorgeous serve and backs it up with really good play from the baseline. His backhand can go cross or down-the-line with no setup needed, which keeps Djokovic from dictating the direction. And recently, he’s stopped playing it safe in later sets. He’s proven he can beat Novak three times out of four, and that’s not nothing.

Best Bets

Could this be a long one? You bet. Speaking of bets, here’s where we think the smart money is!

  1. Over 40.5 Total Games (-110) | Both are holding serve at 91%. There won’t be a lot of breaks there, and tiebreaks or 7-5 sets feel really likely.
  2. Match to Go Over 3.5 Sets (-160) | They’ve only played a straight-sets match once since 2018, and that alone suggests a minimum of four sets.
  3. Alexander Zverev to Win (-105) | Like we said, Zverev’s won three of the last four. He’s got a monster serve, and his movement on clay (which is the slowest surface in tennis) has been the best it’s looked in years. At near even odds? There’s an upside to backing the younger player.

Zverev vs. Djokovic: Who Has the Advantage?

Djokovic has been here so many times he could probably play Roland Garros in his sleep, so that’s one advantage for him. But Zverev’s not been playing like he is on a mission to win. Serve for serve, rally for rally, they’re pretty much dead even. If it goes longer than four sets, Zverev’s youth and the fact that he’s bested Djokovic before give him the upper hand, even if it’s only a slight one.

Final Prediction

  • Winner: Alexander Zverev
  • Sets: Zverev in 4
  • Confidence Level: Medium-High
  • Betting Combo: Over 3.5 Sets + Zverev ML (small parlay or split units)

Don’t forget to check the latest odds and lines, and as always, please gamble responsibly!

NBA Finals Game 1: Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction – June 5, 2025

Who woulda thunk that we’d have a Midwest mashup in the NBA finals? Not us! And certainly not the fans.

The general online sentiment? No one wants to see a Pacers vs Thunder final. People wanted to see at least one big franchise team. The Knicks would’ve fit that bill. They would’ve settled for the Wolves. But they got what they got, and it’s Indiana against OKC.

Unexpected? Yup. The fans of the teams are elated, so that’s something! And we think it’ll be a good series with two squads with completely different styles of ball play. We’re excited, even if a lot of bball fans wanted it to go another way.

So, who do we think is the frontrunner for taking home the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy? We have some thoughts, so keep reading for everything you need to know about the opener!

Game Details

Here’s when, where, and how to watch Game 1:

  • Matchup: Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Series Status: Game 1 of the NBA Finals
  • Date & Time: Thursday, June 5, at 8:30 pm ET
  • Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
  • Broadcast: ABC

Prediction Breakdown

Pacers 38.2%
Thunder 61.8%

According to GamblingSite.com

Team Overviews

First up is how the Finals matchup lines compare! Look below for the team’s regular and postseason records, playoff runs, and the players who are pivotal in getting them to this point.

Indiana Pacers

  • Regular Season Record: 50-32
  • Playoff Path: Beat the Knicks 4–2 in the Eastern Conference Finals
Indiana Pacers Logo

Key Players

  • Tyrese Haliburton: Averaging 9.2 assists per game, and keeps the offense organized and efficient. He’s setting the pace and creating clean looks for everyone around him.
  • Pascal Siakam: Earned Eastern Conference Finals MVP honors with 20.2 points per game on 51.9% shooting. He’s been their most consistent player on both ends.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Regular Season Record: 68-14
  • Playoff Path: Knocked out the Timberwolves 4–1 in the Western Conference Finals
Oklahoma City Thunder Logo

Key Players

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: SGA is this year’s MVP and is averaging 32.7 points per game and has been the focal point of OKC’s offense during the postseason.
  • Jalen Williams: Named to the All-NBA Third Team and All-Defensive Second Team. He’s made a huge impact on both ends, guarding top assignments and doing his part as a secondary scorer.

Head-to-Head Matchup

Oklahoma City won both regular-season games, and they didn’t have to reach for much to get it done. Their length on the perimeter disrupted Indiana’s spacing, and the Pacers had a lot of trouble getting clean looks once they were forced into late-clock possessions.

If Indiana wants to change the dynamic, it’ll need not to stand still. That means more off-ball action for Haliburton, earlier touches for Siakam, and fewer one-pass sets. OKC doesn’t give you much time to figure things out mid-possession, so the Pacers have to force movement, both theirs and the Thunder’s, right after the ball goes up.

Betting Odds & Insights

If you are gonna put some money on Game 1, here’s where the odds and lines currently sit on ESPN BET:

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal

Pacers

+9.5 (-115)

+320

Over 231.5 (-105)

Thunder

-9.5 (-105)

-425

Under 231.5 (-115)

  • Point Spread: Thunder -9.5
  • Over/Under: 230.5 points
  • Moneyline: Thunder -450, Pacers +340
  • Series Odds: Thunder -700, Pacers +500
  • Finals MVP Favorite: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Best Bets

And here is where we think the smart money is if you’re betting on this game:

  • Thunder -9.5 Spread – OKC’s won their last five at home by double digits. If they get clean looks early and keep Indiana from settling in? This line could cover by the third.
  • Over 230.5 Total Points – There aren’t grind-it-out squads; both push the pace, shoot early, and don’t waste too many possessions. Barring a cold shooting night, the over is very much in play.
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 Points – He’s averaging 32.7 in the playoffs and never gets slowed down for long. Because Indiana is short on wing defenders who can stay in front of him, this number is within reach again.

X-Factors

Yes, a lot of games are decided by the biggest names, but in this case? Two star players could cancel each other out!

  • Pacers: Haliburton has to keep the offense moving without letting OKC force him into bad spots. That means good decisions with the ball, being patient under pressure, and finding ways to create space, and not just for himself, but for everyone else on the court.
  • Thunder: Williams will be asked to take on top matchups defensively and still make an impact offensively. He doesn’t need to take over totally, just remain active, pick the right moments, and give OKC flexibility on offense and defense.

Historical Context

It’s been a long time coming for both the Pacers and the Thunder.

Indiana hasn’t made it to the Finals since 2000, when they lost to the Lakers in six games. A lot has changed since then; there’s a new front office, a new identity, and a team that’s built around speed and spacing instead of post play. For Pacers fans, this run has already broken through years of playoff stalls.

Oklahoma City is still chasing its first NBA title. The Thunder made it to the Finals in 2012 with Durant, Westbrook, and Harden, but haven’t been back until now. This version of OKC, which was built through the draft and developed in-house, feels like a new shot at history. For the franchise and its fans, it’s a chance to bring home something that’s eluded them for over 10 years.

Final Thoughts & Game 1 Prediction

Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder 116 – Indiana Pacers 104

The Thunder cover the spread, and the total lands just short of 230.5.

It’s gonna be an interesting series! The Pacers rely on ball movement and spacing to find shots, but Oklahoma City has been the most disciplined defensive team in the playoffs. They contest everything and force teams into second or third options. At home, they’ve pulled ahead by double digits before halftime in four of their last five.

Indiana needs to keep it within five or six by the break. If they fall behind by 10+ going into the third, they’ll have a really hard time coming back.

Betting Recap

  • Spread: Thunder -9.5
  • Total: Over 230.5
  • Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points

Best Bet: Thunder -9.5

The matchup favors OKC, and their track record at home speaks for itself.

Ready to place a wager on this year’s NBA Finals? See our recommendations for the top-rated betting sites to get the best odds and generous bonuses.

2025 RBC Canadian Open Picks & Predictions: Who Will Triumph at TPC Toronto?

The RBC Canadian Open is one of the oldest and most respected stops on the PGA Tour, and in 2025? It’s a brand new chapter. For the first time, the tournament will be taking place at the TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley’s North Course, so it’ll be a new test for the heavy-hitter contenders. This year’s edition runs from June 5–8, and it features big names like Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Robert MacIntyre, and a built-for-competition Canadian group, all of whom want to walk away with the title.

There are PGA Tour points, hometown pride, and a lot of betting opportunities on the line, so it’s not an average stop on the golf tourney calendar! We are gonna unpack the field, the new venue’s green, top picks, value plays, and a few prop bets that look interesting to us!

Final Field Highlights

Who’s teeing off? This year’s player list has a great mix of past champions, up-and-coming stars, and some homegrown talent.

  • Rory McIlroy: Already a two-time winner of this event (2019, 2022), McIlroy is back with a chance to make history. His ability to adapt to new courses gives him a real advantage at TPC Toronto.
  • Robert MacIntyre: The 2024 champion is back and wants a repeat win. He hasn’t had the same consistency this season as last, but he does know how to finish off the big events.
  • Scottie Scheffler: He’s the current world No. 1 and the betting favorite. He’s finished inside the top 10 in eight straight starts and shows up strong every week.
  • Nick Taylor: Won the tournament in 2023 and is one of Canada’s most popular players. The crowd will be behind him, so Taylor could put himself in the running again, no problem.
  • Corey Conners: Canada’s top-ranked player and one of the most reliable ball strikers on tour. He’s really well-suited for a course that calls for accuracy.

Other notable players in the field include Ludvig Åberg, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, and a total of 21 Canadian players, which is the most ever in a Canadian Open field!

Course Overview: TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)

TPC Toronto will make its debut as the host, and the North Course is expected to offer a different kind of test than the past courses.

  • Par: 70
  • Yardage: 6,966 yards

The North Course doesn’t overpower players with length, but it does reward strategic golf. Greens are firm and fast, and players will have to manage their positioning and strokes carefully. The layout places a premium on ball striking, wedge control, and putting touch. It has tree-lined fairways and challenging green complexes, and the players who can think their way around the course are the ones who are most likely to be in contention.

Projected Winner

Who’s the projected winner? No surprise here.

Rory McIlroy Profile

Rory McIlroy

McIlroy has always played really well in Canada, and he’s arriving at TPC Toronto in great shape. His driver gives him a huge edge on wider fairways, and he’s one of the best in the field at capitalizing on scoring chances. His track record on courses he hasn’t seen before is also a plus, and he adapts quickly and usually meets the moment.

After finishing in the top five in three of his last four starts, Rory looks ready to make a serious run. His ability to stay aggressive without taking any unnecessary risks works well with this course layout. Add in the fact that Canadian fans love him, and you’ve got a strong case for another McIlroy win.

Best Bets

Now for the best bets! The three below have the most value. They’re based on the duffers’ recent form, course fit, and are courtesy of DraftKings.

  • Rory McIlroy to Win (+450) | McIlroy has the form, experience, and game to win at a course like this. His past wins in Canada, combined with his current play, make this a really strong play even at shorter odds.
  • Ludvig Åberg Top 10 Finish (+150) | Åberg has posted three top-10 finishes in his last six starts and has shown the kind of control that plays well on a course like TPC Toronto. He’s calm under pressure and doesn’t give any shots away.
  • Nick Taylor Top 10 Finish (+360) | This is a big number for someone who’s won here before and will have the full support of the fans in the crowd. He’s not always consistent, but on familiar ground, Taylor is a nightmare for other golfers.

Best Prop Bets

If you want to bet on something other than the outright winners, the props below give you some more fun ways to stay involved during the tourney!

  • Top Canadian Finisher – Corey Conners | Conners is ranked higher than any of the other Canadian entrants and has been solid during the season. His ball-striking fits this course better than most, and he’ll have no trouble handling the local expectations.
  • First Round Leader – Ludvig Åberg or Tom Kim | Both golfers have made a habit of low rounds early in tournaments. If you’re looking to take a flier on a strong start, these two are among the most likely to set the pace on Thursday morning.
  • Winning Margin – 1 to 2 strokes | The Canadian Open usually stays close, and with this year’s field full of talent, it’s pretty unlikely that we’ll see a blowout. A close finish is a smart play at plus odds.

How to Watch

The RBC Canadian Open will be broadcast in multiple countries, and here’s where you can watch all of the action!

  • United States: Coverage all four days on Golf Channel, with weekend rounds also airing on CBS.
  • Canada: TSN and CTV will carry full coverage, including featured group streams.
  • United Kingdom: Sky Sports Golf will handle the full event broadcast for UK viewers.

Betting Odds Snapshot

PlayerOdds to Win

Ludvig Aberg

+1400

Rory McIlroy

+450

Robert MacIntyre

+2800

Nick Taylor

+4500

Corey Conners

+200

Note: Be sure to keep checking the latest odds as they can change.

RBC Canadian Open 2025: Final Picks & Best Value

This year’s Canadian Open has a strong field and a course that will put extra pressure on approach play and touch around the greens. There are generous fairways and fast, undulating greens, so the players who are able to control their irons and not make mistakes around the putting surfaces should be near the top of the board by Sunday!

Our Final Picks

Here’s where the betting value sits:

  • Outright Pick: Rory McIlroy: Proven past success in Canada, great recent form.
  • Top 5 Bet: Scottie Scheffler: Super-consistent and is always in contention.
  • Top 10 Bet: Ludvig Åberg: Versatile, disciplined, and in great form.
  • Top 10 Bet: Nick Taylor: Can ride home-course support right into contention.
  • Best Prop: Corey Conners as Top Canadian: Strong track record and all-around game.
  • Longshot – Tom Kim: Has the ability to string together birdies and could surprise the field.

We feel good about where the value sits heading into this year’s Canadian Open. McIlroy’s track record in Canada and recent form make him a solid outright target, and Scheffler’s consistency speaks for itself. Conners fits this course well, and Nick Taylor brings real potential as a top-10 play with the crowd cheering him on.

Keep an eye on line movement throughout the week, as odds can shift once early rounds get going. If you’re betting, don’t just grab the first number you see. Shop across the most reputable online sportsbooks, check live updates, and be flexible!

This year’s event has the pieces to deliver a close finish and some really great betting spots. We can’t wait to see who steps up on the new turf at TPC Toronto!

Mets vs. Dodgers Betting Preview & Prediction – June 3, 2025

LA gets to witness a heavyweight National League matchup as the Mets go west to face the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. The two clubs met a few weeks back, and New York grabbed two of three games in Queens. Now it’s L.A.’s turn to try and get some wins at home, and this time? Clayton Kershaw is back on the hill for his season debut.

There are playoff implications on the line and plenty of star power on both teams, so this one could turn on late-inning execution, bullpen matchups, or a big swing from any of the elite bats that are in the lineup.

Game Details

  • Matchup: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Date & Time: Tuesday, June 3, at 10:10 pm ET
  • Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
  • Broadcast: TBS
  • Weather Forecast: Clear skies, 66°F, light breeze

Probable Pitchers

Who’s throwing? Unless something changes, these two:

Tylor Megill (NYM) – 4–4, 3.52 ERA

Megill’s been holding his own in a patched-together Mets rotation. His previous two outings included six shutout innings in Arizona and seven strikeouts in a win over the Dodgers on May 24. His fastball command has gotten better, and he’s kept the ball in the park; he only allowed one homer in his last four starts.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – 0–0, 4.91 ERA

Kershaw makes his first home start of 2025 after returning from an injury. He went 3.2 innings against the Rockies last week, giving up two earned runs. He’s likely on a pitch count again, which could mean that the Dodgers’ bullpen gets tested in the early innings.

Team Overviews

Below is how both clubs have been trending up until this game:

New York Mets Logo

New York Mets (37-22)

The Mets are coming off a strong run, right off a series win in Arizona, and with a 7–3 record in their last 10 games. Even without Montas and Manaea, the rotation has posted the second-lowest ERA in baseball (2.91). Lindor, Alonso, and Soto have been good at the plate, and the bullpen’s held firm in late innings.

Los Angeles Dodgers Logo

Los Angeles Dodgers (36-23)

The Dodgers are back at home after a 3–3 road trip that saw a series loss in New York. They’re 21–9 at Dodger Stadium this year and have been really hard to beat when Ohtani or Freeman are producing. But the pitching staff has been stretched really thin, and Kershaw’s return could be a relief.

Head-to-Head Matchup

What happened the last time these two met? The Mets took two of three from the Dodgers from May 23–25 at Citi Field. New York’s starters kept L.A.’s lineup contained, and Pete Alonso homered twice in the series. Ohtani went hitless in two of those games, and the Dodgers’ bullpen was charged with losses in both defeats.

Betting Odds & Lines

Betting on this one? Here are the latest odds and lines via Caesars Sportsbook:

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal Runs

Mets

+1.5 (-146)

+132

Over 9 (-110)

Dodgers

-1.5 (+122)

-160

Under 9 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Dodgers -160 | Mets +132
  • Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+122) | Mets +1.5 (-146)
  • Over/Under: 9 runs (Over -110 | Under -110)

Betting Trends

  • Mets: 7–7 as underdogs this year, 9–4 in their last 13 overall
  • Dodgers: 30–18 as favorites, 6–4 in their last 10 at home
  • Head-to-head: The Mets have won 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Dodgers

Players to Watch

Who’ll make the biggest impact in this matchup? Here are the players we’re watching!

Mets

  • Francisco Lindor: 13 HRs, .282 AVG, 34 RBIs
  • Pete Alonso: .288 AVG, 12 HRs, 46 RBIs

Dodgers

  • Shohei Ohtani: 22 HRs, .293 AVG, 37 RBIs
  • Freddie Freeman: .365 AVG, .624 SLG

Best Bets

And here are the three best value plays we are backing during the game:

  • Mets +1.5 Run Line (-146): Megill’s been reliable, and the Mets already handled this matchup before. Getting a run and a half feels pretty safe with their current form factored in.
  • Under 9 Total Runs (-110): Megill is on the mound, and Kershaw is unlikely to pitch past the fifth, so both teams might have to rely on their pens to keep the game close.
  • Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+450): He went deep last time the teams played and has been squaring up against southpaws when he’s at the plate.

Closing Pitch: Who Has the Edge Tonight?

The Mets are playing better and have already beaten the Dodgers this season. Megill’s been super dependable.

If Kershaw has a hard time or exits early, the Dodgers don’t have enough behind him, so New York is looking like the stronger side right now.

Final Score Prediction: Mets 4, Dodgers 3

Please make sure to always bet responsibly. If you’re looking for a trusted sportsbook to place your wagers check out our list of recommended sports betting apps for competitive odds and bonuses.