Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Prediction & Preview (July 30, 2025)

Two teams that haven’t battled it out on the hardwood this season finally meet in a matchup! The playoff hopefuls are the Phoenix Mercury, who head to Indiana to take on the Fever. 

First things first, Caitlin Clark is not playing. She’s still sidelined with a groin injury and was ruled out for her fifth straight game. In spite of her absence, the Fever (14-12) is on a two-game win streak and wants to keep it going. Without Clark? Kelsey Mitchell has taken on most of the scoring duties for Indiana.

Phoenix (16-9) is coming off a win over the Washington Mystics; they’ve been killing it on the offense and rebound, and we see them as the more reliable bet because of how well they’ve defended.

Sportsbooks are calling this game pretty even, but the early action is looking like it favors the Mercury side. What else do you need to know? Keep reading to see the latest betting odds, trends, stats, players, and props, our best bets, and why we chose them!

Game Details

• Matchup: Phoenix Mercury (16–9) vs. Indiana Fever (14–12)
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 30, at 7:00 pm ET
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• How to Watch: WNBA League Pass, Bally Sports Indiana, local broadcast
• Head-to-Head: The first of three matchups this WNBA season

Betting Odds

The oddsmakers have spoken, and here are the latest betting lines from FanDuel:

Betting Trends & Stats

How have both teams performed at sportsbooks, and what can the recent trends tell us going into the game?

• Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Mercury: 14–11
  • Fever: 13–13
• Totals (Over/Under)
  • Mercury: 12–12–1
  • Fever: 13–13
• Scoring Notes
  • Indiana’s games are averaging around 165.9 combined points.
  • Phoenix has stayed under the total in 4 of their last 6 games.
• Situational Trends
  • Indiana is 3–1 straight up at home over their last four games.
  • Phoenix has won 4 of its last 5 road games.
  • The underdog has covered in 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two squads.

Players & Props to Watch

Because Clark is still out, Indiana’s offense has been relying more on its vets, and Phoenix is on fire with a really balanced core. Here are the players that we are watching on the board and in the poor market!

Game Breakdown & Strategy Angles

Phoenix’s ball control and defensive length could overwhelm an Indiana team that’s still trying to adapt to playing without Clark!

Our Best Bets

What are we looking at for value? Well, we have five angles for this matchup! Here are our best bets:

FYI: Make sure you check our best online sportsbooks as it gets closer to tipoff for any line movement and prop availability!

Supporting Insights & Sharp Angles

• Phoenix is 8–2 when holding a lead after three quarters; Indiana is 3–6 in the same scenario.
• The Fever have allowed the most offensive rebounds in the league, and that’s bad news against Thomas and Sabally’s inside presence.
• The Mercury has scored 80 or more in five of their last six because of spacing and good ball movement.
• Indiana ranks in the bottom five in opponent field goal percentage, making them vulnerable to Phoenix’s early shot creation.
• Market movement and bet volume are trending toward the Mercury against the spread and Over 164.5

Why We’re Backing the Mercury Over the Fever

Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 82 – Indiana Fever 74

Phoenix has the more experienced core, and it shows when games are close. Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Cloud are leading the half-court sets and controlling the tempo late; they’re better equipped to close out tight matchups than Indiana’s current rotation.

The Fever have issues limiting second-chance points, and it’s an area where the Mercury’s size and rebounding depth (Thomas, Sabally) give them an advantage. Without Caitlin Clark’s rebounding and transition presence? Indiana becomes easier to scout: it forces Kelsey Mitchell into contested looks, and the offense slows way down.

Phoenix’s frontcourt versatility has been a problem for Indiana in the past, and their scoring balance gives them more ways to win than the Mitchell-or-bust approach the Fever are using.

Underdogs have covered in six of the last seven meetings between these teams, but Phoenix fits the short road favorite role here: deeper, steadier, and way less dependent on one scorer carrying the whole team.

Best Bets Recap

• Phoenix Mercury –3.5 (–108): Confidence: 4/5
• Moneyline: Phoenix ML (–176): Confidence: 3/5
• Total Points: Under 166 (–110): Confidence: 3/5
• Player Prop: Kelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points (–110):  Confidence: 4/5
• Alt Bet (Sprinkle): Alyssa Thomas Double-Double: Confidence: 3/5

We’re with the Mercury in this one; they have the rebounding advantage, more late-game options, and fewer lineup gaps. They’re in a much better position to close this one out in regulation!

2025 World Series Longshots: Best Value Teams Nobody’s Betting On

Time flies just like one of Aaron Judge’s homers. Yes, that was corny. But that doesn’t make it any less true, and that means the World Series will be here before we know it! 

We don’t know who will end up at the biggest game in baseball, but we never count out the longshots. Who doesn’t love the underdog? And when you bet on one and they pull it off? Cha-Ching! 

The truth is that a majority of casual bettors only focus on the fav teams, like, say, the Yankees or the Red Sox, but that isn’t always the smartest strategy. Why? Because the real opportunity sometimes lies with those underrated underdogs.

And that’s why we are gonna go over the top undervalued longshots to win the 2025 World Series! We’ll do so based on the latest odds, team trajectory, and good betting strategies.

Before we get into it, know this: betting on longshots is high-risk. These are not sure things, as there is no such thing in sports. But a small, calculated wager on a dark-horse team? That’s a fun part of the betting. If you manage your bankroll and expectations, longshot futures bets can kick up your season a notch with big upside potential, but don’t forget that they’re called “longshots” for a reason!)

Here are the 2025 World Series Longshots: the best value teams that nobody is betting on (yet).

What Makes a Team a ‘Longshot?’

Why is something considered a “longshot?” Well, in this case, it’s a baseball team with a low implied probability of winning, and it’s reflected by odds of roughly +3000 (30-to-1) or longer.

The market gives these teams around a 3% (or less) chance of winning it all. They are the clubs that no one expects to become the champs, and it’s because of recent performance, market size, or roster questions. Sportsbooks and the betting public will overlook them, and this means the payoff would be huge if they end up defying the odds.

The factors that can cause a team to be labeled a longshot? An absence of superstar names, a small-market fan base (and thus less betting action), or a mediocre record in the previous season. Public perception and preseason predictions heavily influence futures odds; teams with known players or a winning history get way more respect on the odds board, and up-and-comers or historically unsuccessful franchises have odds that don’t show their real potential.

What are the traits that potential “sleeper” teams have in common? The following things: 

• A Youthful Core with Upside: Longshots usually have younger talent who are on the brink of breaking out. A roster full of emerging stars, like rookie phenoms or recent call-ups, can gel late in the season and overperform expectations.
• An Emerging Ace or Resurgent Bullpen: Maybe the team has a pitcher who is developing into an ace or a bullpen that’s locking teams down.  Strong pitching can carry an underrated team much further than anyone is expecting them to go.
• Deadline Trade Potential: A “sleeper” team might be just one big move away from contention. If the front office has resources or prospects to trade, a midseason acquisition (like adding a power hitter or a No. 2 starter) could alter their outlook overnight.
• Over-performing on a Budget: Usually, longshots are low-payroll or mid-market teams that find ways to win in spite of a lower budget. It could be via great defense, fantastic coaching, or team chemistry; they could be winning games without attracting any media hype.
• Undervalued by Public Perception: Sometimes, a team is a longshot just because the public hasn’t caught on to their improvements. They will be flying under the radar because of a long playoff drought or a lack of marquee names, but their on-field performance is fire
  

A longshot is any team that the market isn’t giving much of a chance, but that doesn’t mean we should count them out. It’s the overlooked clubs that can offer value to bettors who want a little extra risk.

Why Betting Longshots Is a Smart Strategic Play

The thing about futures betting is to find the discrepancies between implied probability and actual upside. 

Every set of odds contains an implied probability of winning. +3000 odds imply about a 3% chance to win the World Series. If you think a team’s actual chances are higher than that (like  5% or more), then that futures bet has value. Longshots are usually where these discrepancies exist; public bias and conservative forecasts can underrate a team’s ceiling. When you bet on a few carefully chosen longshots, you’re saying, “I think these teams have a better shot than a lot of people realize.”

Of course, you should NOT load up your whole bankroll on a 50-to-1 praying for a miracle candidate. The smart play? Balance your portfolio with one or two small bets on high-upside longshots to complement any wagers on the favorites. The beauty of this is that you only need to hit on one longshot out of many to come out ahead. If one 40-1 underdog wins it all, it can cover losses on all the others and then some. It’s this asymmetric payoff that makes longshot betting so attractive; a little can go a really long way!

Historical Longshot Examples

Baseball history has proven that longshots do sometimes win championships. The last six years have given us some great examples of why it’s wise not to just blank the underdogs!

The above examples highlight an important point: the  MLB season is long and unpredictable. Wild-card teams can get hot at the right time, injuries can shuffle the hierarchy, and unsung players can transform into postseason heroes. If you had a feeling about those underdogs and put down a small wager, you would have been handsomely rewarded.

Best Practices

What’s the best way to bet on longshots? Below are the best practices if you take this wager route!

Bet Early But Keep Monitoring

Longshot odds can change dramatically as the season progresses. If you spot an undervalued team early and bet them at, say, +4500, you can gain a huge edge if they surge (because that same team might be +1500 a few weeks later).

• We saw this happen in 2025: the Detroit Tigers opened at +4000 but were bet down to +850 by mid-summer after jumping to a first-place tie. 
• The Milwaukee Brewers were around +3500 in spring and, after a big winning streak, were shortened to +1600.

Early action usually nets the best value, so watch the odds board all season long! If a team hits a slump or has injuries, their odds could drift longer again, and that can create another chance to buy low.

Use Logic, Not Love

Huge odds are always tempting, but make sure you have a rationale that goes deeper than “That would be nice.” Look at a team’s run differential, underlying stats, or second-half schedule. Is there evidence that they could turn things around or sustain their success? Longshot betting should still be grounded in analysis; you’re looking for undervalued teams, not just any team with a pulse. Don’t throw money at hopeless cases; focus on those that have a plausible path to contention.

Manage Risk & Bankroll

By their very nature, longshot bets are less likely to cash, so always treat them as a high-risk portion of your betting portfolio. Keep the wager sizes modest (relative to your standard unit). The goal is that if the bet loses (as most longshots will), it’s a tiny hit to your bankroll. But if it wins? You get an outsized boost. This way, you enjoy the upside without jeopardizing your bankroll stability.

Don’t Be Scared to Hedge

If your longshot does end up making a deep run, you’ll have options to secure profit. If your 40-1 pick reaches the World Series or League Championship Series, you could hedge by betting on the other team or via cash-out features, and that will lock in some winnings regardless of the final outcome. Hedging strategy is a whole topic in and of itself, but it’s good to plan ahead for how you might capitalize on a longshot that goes the distance.

Best 2025 World Series Longshot Picks (as of late July)

It’s only July, so we are concentrating on the five baseball teams with longer odds but have strong value relative to their World Series chances. These are by no means predictions that each will win! They’re worth a speculative wager because the payoff significantly outweighs the risk in our estimation. A common approach is to risk 0.25 to 0.5 units (a quarter or half of your usual bet size) on these types of futures. That way, if even one hits? You’ll make a profit.

Summary Table

The Brewers’ odds moved fast! They went from around +4500 in early July to about +1500–1600 by late July as they surged to the league’s best record!

How to Bet World Series Futures: Final Strategy Tips

Follow these tips if you’re gonna bet on World Series futures!

• Split your bets: Pair a high-payout team or two with a shorter-odds contender.
• Compare odds: Lines jump between sportsbooks, so shop around so you can lock in the best number.
• Stay plugged in: Trades, injuries, and call-ups can and do change the market quickly.
• Log your tickets: Track stakes, payouts, and teams so you know exactly where you stand.

Recommended Longshot Bets for Late July

What do we recommend in terms of longshots? Here’s what we are backing:

• Top Pick | Mariners (+2200‑2500): They have a balanced lineup, their rotation is getting better, and they are still priced like a mid-tier club!
• Top Contrarian | Red Sox (+2900‑3500): The young hitters are stepping up to the plate, pitching upgrades are likely to happen, and sportsbooks haven’t adjusted.
• Solid Value | Cubs (+1400): Chicago has a really strong combo of power and speed, a solid defense, and a lot of room to improve at the deadline.

FAQs About MLB Futures Betting

Okay, it’s the end of July, and even though October is months away, it’ll be here before we know it! Still, it is far enough off that you probably have some questions about how it all works, so here are the FAQs that we get from readers about it.

And if you’re new to betting on futures, our sports betting guide can help you understand the basics before diving into World Series odds.

The Best Futures Can Come with Doubt

As with every sport, the big-name teams hog all of the attention. But that doesn’t mean they’re the only ones worth betting on! The market isn’t always right, and that leaves a window for undervalued clubs to crash the October party. A few under-the-radar teams are still flying beneath pricing corrections, and if and when they make their move? Sportsbooks won’t even hesitate to slash their numbers.

If you see a team that checks enough of the right boxes and the odds haven’t caught up, now’s the time to take your shot. Remember to keep your wagers modest, spread them around, and keep track of where you’re exposed. Futures bets call for patience, but if one of them hits? You better believe it’s worth the wait!

Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Prediction (July 29, 2025)

Two of the WNBA’s highest-scoring talents will face off on the hardwood in a head-to-head on July 29, when the Las Vegas Aces (13–13) take on the Los Angeles Sparks (11–14) at 10 p.m. ET.

The weapons? A’ja Wilson, who ranks second in the league with 21.6 points per game, and Kelsey Plum, who’s on Wilson’s heels at fourth with 20.1.

• The Sparks have turned their season around in the span of two weeks. A five-game win streak has pulled them to 11–14, and they’ve done it by tightening up on the defensive end and finally getting consistent guard play. And with Cameron Brink returning from injury? Los Angeles gets back its best interior defender in the nick of time to try and deal with A’ja Wilson.
• At .500, The Aces still have the best player on the court in Wilson, but the supporting cast hasn’t come through when they’re on the road. Las Vegas has lost four of its last five away games, and spacing issues keep stalling out their offense when Plum or Gray can’t hit from the perimeter.

Both of them are fighting for playoff seeding, but who will fight harder? The Sparks are healthier and playing their best basketball of the season. The Aces want to stop the slide and show they’re still a top-tier force.

We’ve got all of the deets! Keep scrolling to see recent team form and trends, player matchups, X-factors, betting odds, and trends, and our picks for the three best bets!

Game Details & Stakes

• Matchup: Las Vegas Aces (13–13) at Los Angeles Sparks (11–14)
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 29, at 10:00 pm ET
• Venue: Crypto.com  Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• How to Watch: ESPN+, WNBA League Pass
• Playoff Relevance: Both teams are grouped between the 4th and 8th seeds, making each game critical for seeding positioning.
• Season Series: Tied at 1–1; May 30: Aces 84 – Sparks 69; June 12: Sparks 78 – Aces 70

Recent Form & Team Trends

First up, let’s take a look at how the Sparks and the Aces have been playing as late and any team trends!

Main Player Matchups & X-Factors

Who’s up against whom, and what are the possible X-factors? Here’s what we’re watching out for:

Other X-Factors

• Kelsey Plum’s Shot Volume: She’s been taking on more of the scoring load with defenses collapsing on Wilson. If she keeps creating off the dribble and finding clean looks beyond the arc, Vegas has a secondary scoring outlet that can shift the matchup.
• L.A.’s Bench Support: Jordin Canada brings a lot of intensity at the point of attack and can disrupt passing lanes, and Rae Burrell has been way more reliable from deep in recent games. If that group holds serve? The Sparks won’t have to lean so heavily on their starters.
• Transition Pressure: The Sparks need to push off missed shots and turnovers so they don’t get trapped in Vegas’s half-court pace. If they generate early offense and don’t let the Aces set up, they control more of the game’s direction.

Head-to-Head Breakdown

Next up? The head-to-head stats for both WNBA teams:

• May 30 – Aces 84, Sparks 69: Las Vegas shot 51% from the floor and outrebounded L.A. by 14. Wilson and Plum combined for 45 points as the Aces controlled most of the game.
• June 12 – Sparks 78, Aces 70: Back in Los Angeles, the Sparks tightened their defense, holding Vegas to 38% shooting and forcing 17 turnovers. Dearica Hamby led with 20 and 10.

Main H2H Trends

• The Aces have covered in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
• Unders have hit in 3 of the last 4.
• The home team has won and covered in both 2025 matchups.

Latest Betting Odds

Throwing a wager on this game? We’ve got the latest odds and lines courtesy of ESPN BET:

Odds fluctuate fast, especially near game time. Make sure you’re betting with the most current lines—it might be the edge that turns a lean into a win.

Betting Market & Line Movements

• Spread
  • Opening: Aces –1.5
  • 7/28: Aces –2.5
  • Notes: Early action has backed Vegas despite L.A. being on a win streak
• Moneyline
  • Opening: Aces –145
  • 7/28: Aces –160 | Sparks +135
  • Notes: Vegas is seeing the edge in most projections
• Total
  • Opening: 171.5
  • 7/28: 172.5
  • Notes: A modest bump suggests the expectations of pace and scoring

Public Betting Trends

• Spread: About 62% of bettors are backing the Aces at –2.5
• Moneyline: Around 54% of the handle is on the Sparks, and it’s likely from bettors who are after plus-money value at home
• Total: Bettors are leaning slightly toward the Over, and it’s driven by L.A.’s scoring uptick over the last few games

Our Best Bets

Where do we think the smart money is, and why do we like it? Look below for our three best bets!

Aces vs Sparks Prediction: Can L.A.’s Win Streak Survive the Champs?

Final Score Prediction: Aces 89 – Sparks 85

The Sparks are on a nice run, but most of those wins? They were against lower-tier teams. They haven’t faced a frontcourt presence like A’ja Wilson during that stretch, and Vegas still has the better top-end talent, so we’re backing the Aces to win.

If the Aces defend the interior and force the Sparks into tough looks outside the paint, they’re in a good position to separate down the stretch. L.A. needs a strong shooting night and a big performance from Brink or Canada to keep the score close.

Best Bets Recap

• Aces –2.5 (moderate)
• Over 172.5 (low-moderate)
• Loyd points prop (moderate)

Want to improve your betting results? Check out our expert betting strategies—and explore the top-rated sportsbooks where you can put them into action!

Toluca vs. Columbus Crew Preview | Leagues Cup Opening Match (July 29, 2025)

The Leagues Cup opening match kicks off with Toluca vs. Columbus Crew, and it could be the most exciting game of the first round!

Toluca has been ripping through Liga MX defenses all summer long, and they’ll have home altitude and the fans behind them for the opener. Sure, Columbus is the defending Leagues Cup champs, but they’ve had some bumps on the road here, and Mexico has never been nice to visiting MLS clubs.

Both of these teams are made to score, so this one is setting up to be a back-and-forth goal-fest in group play. And the club that handles the tempo better? They could set the temperature for the rest of the round! And because both are favs to make it to the semifinals, that ups the ante.

Are you ready for some serious soccer? Keep reading for a complete preview, including both teams’ recent form, head-to-head stats, players to watch, the latest betting odds, and our four best bets!

Match Details

• Matchup: Toluca vs. Columbus Crew
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 29, 7:00 pm ET
• Location: Lower.com Field, Columbus, Ohio (MLS side home advantage)
• How to Watch: Apple TV’s MLS Season Pass in English; Spanish commentary via Fox Deportes or Univision platforms
• Weather Forecast: It’ll be in the mid-80s and humid; the heat and humidity could have an effect on late-game tempo

Recent Form & Team Context

Let’s talk recent form and what’s been going on with Toluca and the Columbus Crew!

Head-to-Head Trends

How do these clubs stack up head-to-head?

Toluca and Columbus Crew have faced each other only twice competitively before, in the 2010 Concacaf Champions Cup, which ended in a 2–2 draw in the first leg, and Toluca won 3–2 in the second leg to take the tie.

In both of the matches:

• Both teams scored
• Over 2.5 goals hit
• Late goals were decisive, changing the momentum and the result

Across both games, neither side ruled the midfield; the action flowed between end‑to‑end chances and wasn’t a controlled build-up by one team.

Main Players to Watch

We’ll be watching all of the players on the pitch, but there are three names from each team that we’ll be laser-focused on:

Toluca

• Alexis Vega: Toluca’s assist king (8 in Clausura); Vega nailed a hat trick and assisted in a 5–2 win over Necaxa. He’s a threat from open play and in dead-ball situations. 
• Paulinho: Clausura’s top scorer (12 goals), scored in the final, and is vital to Toluca’s attack; he brings size and composure inside the box. 
• Jesús Gallardo: He’s the newly awarded Liga MX Best Full-Back; Gallardo has both forward thrust from left wing-back, with experience at the back.  

Columbus Crew

• Diego Rossi: He’s back to his goal-making ways and linking up really well as part of the Crew’s front line; he’s on a tear as the club’s creative focal point. 
• Darlington Nagbe: This is the Crew’s midfield metronome; when Nagbe controls possession and tempo, Columbus moves super well.
• Wessam Abou Ali: He is Columbus’s new Designated Player from Al Ahly, and gives the Crew a physical edge and another goal threat; Ali just starred with a Club World Cup hat trick. 

Betting Odds & Market Insights

If you’re thinking about betting on the Leagues Cup opener, here are the latest odds and lines from DraftKings:

Sportsbooks are pricing this as an open matchup; the market odds show goals coming from both clubs.

Stay sharp—odds move as the match draws near, and checking the latest lines before betting could be the key to a smarter wager.

Preview Summary: What to Expect

This matchup is looking like a lot of open play with very little midfield congestion. Columbus will try to stretch the field early through Rossi’s movement and Nagbe’s short-passing game; they’ll want to keep Toluca pinned deeper than they want to be. And Toluca will clap back via quick switches and wing overloads through Vega’s service and Gallardo’s late runs.

Second-half fatigue could definitely be a factor; it’s gonna be hot and humid, and both clubs want to dictate the pace. But whoever controls the wide spaces as energy drops could come out on top.

Our Best Bets

It’s about that time! Look below for our best bets; we’ve got three solid picks and a so-so one that could be worth a look.

In-Game Storylines

• Columbus’ opening tempo: They usually press early at home. If Toluca holds firm without overcommitting, they’ll have the space to exploit later in the game.
• Wing exposure: The Crew’s fullbacks push up, and that leaves pockets in behind. Toluca’s wide players (Vega and Gallardo) can turn that flaw into scoring chances.
• Second-half edge: Toluca’s attack doesn’t drop off with changes. If the game’s still even after 70? They’ve got more than enough match-winners waiting in the wings and ready to come on.

Toluca vs. Columbus Crew Final Take

Don’t expect to watch a match that’s decided by control; it’ll be won by whoever can handle pressure better in those broken phases of play. 

Columbus relies on structure and spacing to build their attacks, but they’ve been exposed when play gets iffy. Toluca’s strength lies in exploiting those gaps with direct runs and quick decisions in the final third. You’re not betting on control with this game; you’re betting on execution in tense moments. That’s why the goal markets, and not the winner, are where the real value is!

Best Bets Recap

• Over 2.5 Goals (8.5/10)
• BTTS – Yes (8/10)
• Toluca DNB (+160) (6.5/10 value play)

Final Score Prediction: Columbus Crew 2 – 2 Toluca

Columbus does have the home advantage, but don’t count Toluca out; their shape and counterattack are not to be trifled with!

The over feels like the most stable route, as does the BTTS if the match stays loose defensively.

And if you’re ready to bet on the Leagues Cup opener or any other upcoming matches, make sure you’re using a trusted sportsbook that gives you great odds and fast payouts. Check out our list of the best sports betting sites to compare options.

Impact of 2025 NFL Rule Changes on Betting Lines and Player Props

Listen up, all of you slavishly devoted pigskin punters! There is a new kickoff rule coming down the pike that could affect your betting strategy.

The 2025 NFL season comes with two new rules. One of them is a revamped kickoff format, and the other? Brand new replay/challenge protocols.

Yes, these are safety measures for players, but they’ll also change up field positions and the game’s pace in every quarter. And you better believe that these rule changes will mean point totals, prop lines, and live odds could change in surprising ways.

But don’t panic! We are going to go over all of it, including how the new kickoff rules and replay changes work, and then apply that knowledge to how you should alter your over/under wagers, special-teams props, and in-play strategies. Let’s blitz this, baby!

Quick Overview of the 2025 Rule Updates

The Replay Assist program is getting stronger. On-site replay officials are now able to proactively fix certain penalties (defenseless hits, face-mask grabs, horse-collar tackles, tripping, and running-into-the-kicker). 

Coaches retain red flags to challenge plays, but only if a flag was thrown on the field in the first place; they can’t challenge to draw attention to an uncalled foul. The league is locking down some fouls under replay review while discouraging needless coaches’ challenges. The rule adjustments are meant to help with game flow and decrease injury risks.

New Kickoff Rule

How does the new kickoff rule operate? Look below:

• Touchbacks at the 35: Starting in 2025, any kickoff that’s caught or downed in the end zone will be spotted at the 35-yard line, not the 25. A five-yard jump forces teams to think twice about easy touchbacks.
• Compact Alignment: The ball is kicked from midfield toward a “setup zone,” which is where return teams can have at most three players just ahead of the restraining line. By lining up like a regular play and restricting space/speed, the NFL expects more return attempts (and way less high-speed collisions).
• Onside Any Time (If Trailing): Any team that is trailing can declare an onside kick on any kickoff. This gives teams a weapon earlier in the game. The kicker still has to bounce the ball short (it will be kicked from the 34 instead of the 30-yard line per reports) to attempt a recovery.

Coach‑challenge Change

And what’s with the whole coach challenge thing? Here’s how that will work:

• New limits: The 2025 rulebook narrows the scope of how and when coaches can use the red flag. Teams are now limited to just one challenge per half, regardless of if it’s successful or not. A failed challenge still costs a timeout, but the biggest change? Coaches can only challenge plays where a penalty was already called on the field. They can’t use challenges to argue for missed calls or demand new flags after the fact.

NFL Executive VP of Football Operations Troy Vincent explained the change like this: “We’re trying to remove unnecessary delays while still allowing replay to correct egregious errors. If no flag was thrown, that’s the call; the replay booth won’t be used to manufacture one.”

So, if a pass interference or personal foul isn’t flagged live, coaches have zero recourse. That erases the gray area and cuts down on throwaway challenges, as it forces coaching staffs to be way more selective with their one shot per half.

The Replay Assist Program

The instant replay involvement is being expanded for safety calls as well, and it looks like this:

Replay Assist: The league’s system for booth-initiated reviews now has broader authority over safety-related fouls. Replay officials can step in to correct face masks, horse-collar tackles, defenseless receiver hits, tripping, and roughing the kicker, even if the on-field refs happen to miss them.

NFL Referee Committee Chair Perry Fewell told ESPN: “We’ve given replay assist a bit more authority when it comes to player safety. But that’s a booth-driven correction, not something coaches can trigger. The goal is faster, cleaner outcomes, not dragging the game down.”

The adjustment means there will be fewer interruptions from sideline challenges and more consistent pacing, particularly in moments where late-game rhythm used to be interrupted by questionable red flags. What does this mean for bettors? A smoother clock flow in halves with no replay-worthy safety fouls!

Kickoff Rule — Betting Impact Breakdown

The new kickoff rules will undoubtedly reverberate through point spreads, totals, and props. In 2024’s test run, the changes led to a historic scoring bump: the league averaged 45.8 points per game, up from 43.5 in 2023. Returns also jumped; NFL data projects a 65–75% return rate once touchbacks are at the 35. In betting terms, more returns generally mean more possessions and better starting field position! Below are the effects it will have on betting.

Over/Under Point Totals

The change in kickoff structure isn’t just a cosmetic thing; it cuts into the number of splash plays that used to sneak totals over the number. In past years, a surprise return or botched coverage could flip a slow first quarter into a 14-point swing. That volatility has been evened out. The new alignment keeps coverage teams close to the returner and limits high-speed collisions, which means most returns start around the 25–30 yard line without a lot of drama. So, while returns will be more frequent, they’ll be way less explosive.

And that creates a strange betting paradox. You’d think more returns would mean more points, and they did in theory during the 2024 test run. The league saw a modest uptick in average points per game (from 43.5 in 2023 to 45.8 in 2024), and part of that was tied to better starting field position. But it wasn’t because of long touchdown returns; it was because offenses got the ball at the 30+ instead of the 25.

Early game totals, in particular, are worth watching. First quarter and first-half over/unders usually lean conservative because coaches start out cautiously. But when a team starts a drive near the 35 instead of the 25, and doesn’t burn 30 seconds letting the kickoff bounce into the end zone? The chance of getting a field goal out of that first possession goes up. That’s where the early scoring lines can drift upward.

If you want to compare the pre- and post-rule totals, below is how it looked across sample games:

The expected outcome isn’t that games are all of a sudden shootouts;  it’s that the bar is raised. With better field position and fewer time-draining touchbacks, the average drive becomes more productive. That can push totals upward without changing the look or feel of the game. If sportsbooks hang totals at 43.5–44.0 in the first couple of weeks, you could be looking at value on the over when two average offenses face off and field position tips them over the edge.

Player Props

Kick return props will also have a reset. In past seasons, most sportsbooks priced “longest kickoff return” or “total kick return yards” based on volatility alone; all it took was one busted lane for someone to run 60+ yards. But with the new kickoff setup? That kind of play is going to be the exception, not the rule. Returns are happening more often, but the average yardage per return is coming down. That changed how you should approach prop betting around kickoff plays.

In 2024’s trial run of the new kickoff formation, teams returned kicks on about 78% of opportunities, up from just 38% from 2023. That’s a massive increase in volume. But the average return distance hovered around 22–24 yards, compared to 26–27 in the prior format. The compressed setup, with both coverage and blocking players aligned five yards apart at the 40 and 35, makes it harder to find big seams. You get short, frequent returns. Not breakaway plays.

So what does that mean for props? For starters, “Longest Kick Return Over 35.5 Yards,” which was a common line in 2023 and 2024, will feel inflated in most matchups. That under is live unless you’re dealing with a known burner or a soft special teams unit. Sportsbooks that haven’t adjusted will get caught pricing those lines on outdated assumptions.

Where it gets really interesting is with volume props. If you’re seeing “Total Kick Returns Over 3.5” per team or “Kick Return Yards Over/Under 85.5” as an individual prop, you have some nice opportunities. Because touchbacks now give up the 35-yard line, most kickers are avoiding booming it through the end zone. That means returners are fielding the ball inside the 5 or on a short hop and taking it out. More returns equal more yardage, even if the yards-per-return stay modest. Those props are more stable and easier to handicap than they used to be.

If you’re targeting props in this new landscape, fade the splash plays and bet into the volume. Go under on the longest return. Go over the number of returns. And if a book hangs a lazy prop like “Player X Over 110.5 return yards,” know that it now takes 5+ returns to get there; it’s not one big one and done.

Live Betting Opportunities

Returns are more controlled, more repeatable, and more average. And that’s an absolute gift for live bettors. If you know that every drive is starting between the 28 and 35-yard line, and you’re not worried about a 103-yard score coming out of nowhere, it’s so much easier to time your entries.

In 2024, the average drive following a kickoff lasted 5.7 plays and covered about 32 yards, compared to just 4.8 plays and 27 yards the year before. That small change opened up live total overs in second quarters where scoring pace had dipped; the drive math made it more likely that a basic possession could generate a field goal or flip field position.

What this also means is that live lines adjust more slowly. In the first quarter, if the opening drives don’t feature big returns or turnovers, totals may drop a few points from the pregame number. That can be the moment to strike: the field position edge hasn’t gone away, but the market is reacting like it has.

Same goes for end-of-half sequences! Without kickoff penalties or touchbacks eating up time, teams are getting cleaner setups for their two-minute drills. That favors late-half overs and “next score” props when the market isn’t priced aggressively.

And don’t forget the onside scenarios. Under the 2025 rules, teams can declare an onside kick at any point in the game, as long as they’re behind. That introduces a brand new wrinkle into second- and third-quarter live betting. If a team is down 10 and just scored, you have to consider the real chance that they’ll try to steal a possession. Live ML odds might not price that possibility in until it’s too late. If you’re paying attention, you can beat the sportsbook to the number!

Challenge Rule — Betting Consequences

The new challenge restrictions change how the game is paced, and not just when the clock runs, but when it doesn’t stop. Coaches get one challenge per half. That’s it. They can’t challenge missed penalties. The replay booth can step in, but only for player safety fouls. That removes several of the most common delays that used to slow down second quarters, kill late-half drives, or give teams time to reset. And with fewer stoppages, the pace picks up, and that will change totals and in-game betting windows!

Over/Under Point Totals

Games now run with fewer breaks, and that’s good news for everyone who thinks that football games are way too long. There are more reviews of missed DPI. No more stall-outs after a third-down spot.

That means uninterrupted possessions, fewer wasted plays, and a decrease in clock drain without movement.

Totals in the 43–46 range are now vulnerable to getting passed, and not from breakaway scoring, but from time no longer being eaten up by delays. Fewer stoppages = more usable seconds = a few more plays. If a drive gets two extra snaps because the clock wasn’t frozen for a sideline flag, that’s usually enough to get into field goal range. Sportsbooks might raise numbers in high-total games, but mid-tier matchups are where these changes will be seen the most.

Live Lines & In‑Game Derivatives

Stoppages used to control a game’s momentum, but not anymore! Coaches would use challenges to break a drive’s rhythm, kill the tempo after a turnover, or burn time for a late-half clock reset. Those tools? Bye! That changes how live totals and in-play props behave.

Fewer pauses mean that live lines move faster, and there will be reduced corrections. If a team picks up tempo, there’s no timeout or challenge to slow it down, and the sportsbook won’t have time to adjust it mid-drive. Time-based props (“plays in Q2,” “next team to score”) become more reliable. You’re betting into pace, not volatility.

Combined Effects — Line Movement & Player Props

The kickoff and replay rule changes don’t only affect isolated markets; they will reshape how totals and props are built across entire slates. Fewer return touchdowns. Fewer stoppages. Drives that start closer to midfield, and way less timeouts wasted on questionable flags. Add all that together, and you get a different game, and it’s one that sportsbooks now have to account for in pregame lines and prop combos.

For totals, this creates a compression effect. Games with passive special teams and low-tempo offenses might see their over/unders drop by two to three points compared to 2024, particularly if neither team has a return specialist that’s worth watching. But in matchups where both teams are likely to return kicks and burn through clean drives without delay? You’ll see totals hold or even go up, and not because of scoring, but because the clock isn’t being stopped as much.

Props are being grouped differently as a result, too. You’ll see pairings that never used to exist, like return stats linked with officiating trends. Football betting sites are now experimenting with lines like the ones below:

• “Total Kick Return Yards + First-Half Challenges: Over/Under 88.5”
• “More: Kickoff Returns or Accepted Penalties?”
• “First Special Teams Play to Exceed 25 Yards OR First Booth Review?”

The above markets show the fact that kickoff returns are now predictable in frequency but less volatile in yardage, and reviews will happen less but will still be tied to fixed foul types.

This is how a typical adjustment could look with different matchup profiles:

If you’re betting on pregame totals or combo props, the chasm between how sportsbooks modeled these games in 2024 and how they unfold in 2025 is where the value lives. Pay attention to which teams keep the red flag in their back pocket and which ones let kickoffs come out of the end zone; those are the games where betting lines haven’t totally caught up to what’s happening on the field!

Four Betting Strategy Tips

Want some tips for betting in this new age of the NFL? We got you!

FAQs

Bet you have a lot of questions about these rule changes (do you see what we did there?). We put together a few of the most common FAQs that should cover the most important things about how they’ll impact betting lines and player props!

Adapting Your Strategy for 2025 NFL Lines

The rules have literally changed, and the market hasn’t caught up to all of it. Some totals are still padded by last year’s assumptions. Props are being posted without accounting for how return volume or reduced stoppages recalculate the drive structure. If you’re betting 2025 lines like it’s still 2024? You’ll be left in the dust. Below, we tell you how to fix that!

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Prediction (July 28, 2025)

The Yankees will host the Rays for a three-game series that begins on July 28 at 7:05 pm ET!

Tampa Bay is heading to the Bronx, where they’re hoping to stop their losing streak (they’ve lost 7 of their last 10 games). NY has fared a little better; they lost the first 2 games against Philly but won the third 4-3.

Drew Rasmussen will be back on the mound after nearly 14 months of recovering from elbow surgery. He’ll most likely be limited, but Tampa’s hoping he can get through the lineup once without giving up much. But the Yankees still have the deeper lineup and a bullpen that’s logged fewer innings this week. If Rasmussen can’t give length? It puts a lot of pressure on Tampa’s middle relief.

Playoff positioning is at stake, y’all! Keep reading to see starting pitcher stats, the latest betting odds and lines, main storylines, our four best bets, and our final score prediction!

Game Details

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays (53‑53) vs. New York Yankees (57‑48)
• Date & Time: Monday, July 28, 7:05 pm ET
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• How to Watch: YES Network (Yankees), Bally Sports Sun (Rays), MLB.tv
• Forecast: Clear with mostly sunny skies with temps in the low to mid 90s, but it’ll cool down to the 80s during the game. There’ll be light winds from the east-northeast that should have minimal influence on fly balls.

Starting Pitchers & Matchup Insights

Who’s throwing in Game 1? The Rays are sending out Drew Rasmussen, and the Yanks will have Carl Schlittler on the hill. Look below for a breakdown of each starter’s stats!

Advantage

Rasmussen has a clear advantage in experience and command. His cutter-sinker mix keeps right-handers at bay, and he doesn’t give up a lot of base runners via walks. If the Rays let him work into the sixth? He can neutralize the top half of the Yankees’ order. Schlittler looked really composed in his debut, but he hasn’t faced a team that can stack up solid lefties like Tampa does.

If Tampa stretches Schlittler’s pitch count, the Yankees could be looking at bullpen duty by the fifth inning. Rasmussen has the advantage because of his command and track record against right-handed hitters, and if the Rays give him the support, he’s in a solid spot to work through six.

Betting Odds & Market Movement

If you’re gonna bet on this game, look below for the latest odds and lines via FanDuel:

Check the most recent odds before betting—lines can move as game time nears, and staying informed could be the difference between a win and a miss.

Line Movement

• The Yankees ML opened around –175 and moved to –196 and is now down to -120; sportsbooks are reacting to steady money on New York and a possible pitching advantage.
• The total dropped from 9.0 to 8.5; early bettors are likely leaning under based on the lineup form and weather.

Betting Splits

• A lot of public bets are leaning hard toward the Yankees’ moneyline because, well, they’re the Yankees.
• The Rays +1.5 and the Under have drawn extra interest from sharper bettors; the movement shows there is a split between casual and sharper action.

Storylines to Watch

What are we watching for in this one? The following factors!

• Rasmussen’s First Start Back – After a long recovery, Rasmussen returns to a tight playoff race. He doesn’t have to go deep, but how good he looks in the first few innings will say a lot about how ready he really is.
• Schlittler’s Second Test – The Yankees are throwing the rookie into the lion’s den. His debut went really well, but Tampa’s hitters work deeper counts and can expose command lapses if he gets behind early.
• Bullpen Balance – New York gave their late-inning arms a workout over the weekend, and Tampa pretty much stayed out of high-leverage spots. That disparity could come into play if this turns into a six-inning game.
• AL East Stakes – The Yankees are trying not to slip behind in the rankings, and the Rays can’t afford many more losses if they want to stay in the Wild Card chase.
• Lefties vs. the Bronx Dimensions – Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe, and any other Tampa lefties in the lineup could benefit from that short porch in right field. One solid swing could change the game!

Our Best Bets

Who and what do we think are the best bets for the game? Here are the four angles that we feel have the most value!

How to Bet on the Rays vs. Yankees Game

We’re backing NY, but that Moneyline? It’s inflated. Rasmussen has the pitches in his arsenal to stall the Yankees’ best hitters, and that puts the Under 8.5 in play as the better angle. If the game stays scoreless through three? Then we’re talking live totals that could give you extra value!

Best Bets Recap

• Under 8.5 Runs (–118); Confidence: ★★★★☆
• Yankees Moneyline (–196); Confidence: ★★★☆☆
• Rays +1.5 Run Line (–142); Confidence: ★★★☆☆
• First 5 Innings Under 4.5; Confidence: ★★★★★

Wanna bet smarter? You can use our sports betting strategies, and you can find out where to do it on our best sportsbooks page!

Final Score Prediction: Yankees 4, Rays 2

This game won’t be a blowout like we saw with the first two in the Yankees/Phillies series this weekend (sorry, NY fans, but the Phils whooped y’all), but the Yankees will take it over the Rays.

England vs. Spain Prediction | EURO 2025 Final (July 27, 2025)

England and Spain meet again, and it’s less than a year after Spain beat them in the World Cup Final.

And this time? It’s for the EURO 2025 title. England’s trying to defend their crown, and it’s against a club that is the reigning World Cup (2023) and Nations League (2024) champions. If Spain wins? It would make them the first team to hold the World Cup, Nations League, and EURO titles simultaneously.

No pressure for England or anything!

The two best women’s teams had to work to get here; England survived a stubborn Italy side that pushed them into extra time. Michelle Agyemang, who’s been one of the breakout players of the tournament, and Chloe Kelly came off the bench and helped get them the win.

Spain didn’t have it any easier; Aitana Bonmatí, the reigning Ballon d’Or winner, finally broke the deadlock in the 113th minute to win the semifinal against Germany and book La Roja’s place in the final.

It’s going down on Sunday, July 27, in Basel, Switzerland, and it’ll be blockbuster soccer (or football).

Keep scrolling to see the match details, head-to-head and tactical stats, current betting odds, and our picks for the best 5 bets!

Match Details

• Matchup:England vs. Spain
• Date & Time: Sunday, July 27 at 12:00 pm ET / 5:00 pm BST / 18:00 CET
• Venue: St. Jakob-Park, Basel, Switzerland
• How To Watch: In the U.S.: FOX and Fox Sports streaming; in the U.K.: BBC One, ITV1, BBC iPlayer, ITVX

Road to the Final

We talked a little about how England and Spain made it to the final, but here is a more detailed look!

The Lionesses (England)

• The Comeback queens in Switzerland: England was trailing Sweden 2–0 in the quarterfinal and rallied to draw 2–2 before winning in penalties. 
• Semi‑final vs. Italy: Michelle Agyemang equalized deep in stoppage time, and Chloe Kelly netted the winner in the 119th minute.
• England have now reached three straight major tournament finals under Sarina Wiegman.  

La Roja (The Red One, Spain)

• Undefeated run through the Euros; they outplayed opponents in the group and knockout stages with a total of 17 goals scored. 
• Solid knockouts: Spain beat Denmark 2–0 in the quarters; edged Germany in the semi, controlled possession, and Bonmatí fired the winner off late in the game.

Head‑to‑Head & Tactical Matchups

What’s the history between these two teams, and which players are going to be battling it out on the pitch?

Last Meeting

• Spain beat England 2–1 in June’s Nations League; Alessia Russo scored first, but Clàudia Pina came on and scored twice to overturn it and get the win in Barcelona.
• Earlier this year, England beat Spain 1–0 at home during another Nations League fixture; Russo again scored the winning goal.
• In the last 14 matches, England have won 7, Spain 4, with 3 draws, and recent meetings have been evenly split.

Player Battles

• Keira Walsh (England) anchors midfield with her precision passing under threat from Spain’s press; opponents usually will man-mark her to disrupt England’s tempo and form.
• Spain’s control lies with Aitana Bonmatí and Alexia Putellas; they orchestrate possession and build-up through midfield rotations, and that makes space for runners like Pina or Paralluelo.

Betting Odds

If you want to bet on the EURO 2025 Final, look below for the latest odds and lines courtesy of ESPN BET:

Be sure to review the latest odds before placing your bets—lines often shift closer to kickoff, so staying updated can give you an edge.

Trending Props & Bets

We’ve looked at the sportsbooks and here are the trending props and bets for this matchup!

• Clàudia Pina – First Goalscorer (~6/1): She came off the bench to score a brace against England in the Nations League and has maintained top attacking volume and finishing form this Euros. She’s a live threat who’s priced to deliver. 
• Michelle Agyemang – Anytime Goalscorer (~4/1 boost on Midnite): England’s 19-year-old bada** came up clutch against Italy; she scored twice in the knockout rounds. Her market got a boost after her winning strikes in the quarters and semis. 
• Builder Option: Spain HT Lead + England Win 90 min (~40/1): This is an underdog-style parlay: Spain lead at the break, but England force a turnaround by full‑time. These are long odds, and it’s risky, but it makes sense if you expect a change in control after halftime. 

Our Best Bets

What do we like for the women’s EURO 2025 Final? We’ve got four solid angles and one Lead in for our 5 best bets and an iffy one that’s a longshot but still worth a look!

Team News & X‑Factors

Injuries and lineups will definitely have a say in how  this final plays out. England has some hard decisions to make, and Spain will be sticking with what’s worked for them so far.

England

• Lauren James (ankle) missed the second half of the semi-final and is a major doubt for the final. She’s doing light training, but England’s staff is holding off on confirming her status until it gets closer to kick-off. If she’s out? Beth Mead or Chloe Kelly will likely step in. 
• Michelle Agyemang has continued her breakthrough run; she’s scored in back-to-back knockout games and adds a lot of energy off the bench. Chloe Kelly also stays in the frame to start, depending on the formation they go with. 

Spain

• Spain is at full strength; Aitana Bonmatí is fully fit after a bout of viral meningitis only weeks ago. She’s back to form and is central to Spain’s build-up. 
• Alexia Putellas has returned to her lineup role post-ACL recovery and is combining well with Bonmatí and Patri Guijarro in midfield. This trio will anchor Spain’s creativity and pressing.  

Main Storylines to Watch

• Can England avoid another slow start? They’ve made a habit out of leaving it until late in games. A slow opening against Spain’s pressing could be too much to recover from in this case.
• Who controls the middle third? England relies on Walsh to set the tempo, but Spain’s trio (Bonmatí, Putellas, Guijarro) will try to suffocate that space early and often.
• Legacy on the line: Spain can become the first nation to hold the World Cup, Nations League, and Euro titles at once. England wants to prove their 2022 win wasn’t just a lucky win.

Prediction Locked: Scoreline, Slips, and Stake Sizing

The 2025 Women’s EURO wraps up with a familiar scene: England vs. Spain, a rematch of the World Cup Final from two summers ago. Spain took that one, and based on how both teams have played in this tournament? Unfortunately for the Lionesses, the Red Ones are in a good position to do it again.

Best Bets Recap

• Spain to win in 90 minutes (High Confidence)
• Under 2.5 Total Goals (Medium)
• Claudia Pina to score first (Medium)
• Spain HT / Draw FT (Low-Medium)
• Chloe Kelly to score or assist (Low)

Risk Factors

England’s set-piece threats and late substitutions can change the game, so Spain has to stay organized the full 90 minutes.

Bankroll Guidance

Stick to 1–3% per play on your main bets, and use smaller stakes on props or long odds unless they’re paired with safer legs!

And before you bet, make sure to confirm the starting lineups, get updates on injury reports, and shop odds across the top online sportsbooks so that you can get the best value.

Final Score Prediction: Spain 2–0 England

Spain will control the tempo and convert their chances, England can’t find a breakthrough, and thus matches up with our Spain ML and Under 2.5 bets!

Why Trading Your Casino Comps Might Pay Off More Than You Think

We all love freebies! Do you know how many free drinks I’ve gotten at Starbucks with their rewards program? Let’s just say I’m over-caffeinated and dehydrated.

Casinos do the same thing with their rewards programs, only instead of espresso or one of those weird-looking pink drinks, you get things like free rooms. Or dinners. You know, casino comps!

You sign up for a player’s where you play the most, and the comps start coming. Sounds good! But there are a lot of players who claim those comps and then don’t use them, which is nuts. Not only are they missing out on food vouchers and hotel nights, but they might not know that they could be even more valuable if you get a little creative.

How can you get creative and leverage your comps like cash? You can hit up gaming forums, social media groups, and apps where players trade, swap, or strategize about comps. 

We are gonna tell you how to think of your comps as currency, and how to trade, optimize, or even re-use them so you get the most value from your casino activity! Let’s get comping.

What Are Casino Comps, Really?

“Comps” is short for complimentary rewards, and they are basically freebies that casinos hand out as a little “thank you” for playing.

On the basic end of the comp systems, you’ve got things like the following:

• Free slot play credits
• Drink vouchers or complimentary cocktails
• Buffet or casual dining comps
• Discounted or comped hotel stays

And when you move up the loyalty ladder, or if you show you’re willing to lose enough money, you start to unlock the better stuff:

• Tickets to big-name concerts or shows
• Free flights or airport transfers
• Room upgrades and luxury suites
• Spa treatments, golf rounds, pool cabanas
• Dedicated VIP host services, limo rides, and private gaming areas

Casinos can give you anything from a free breakfast to a full-blown weekend getaway. What you get depends on how much value they think you’re bringing to the casino table.

How Comps Are Earned

So, comps aren’t gifts; they’re calculated investments. The casino isn’t giving you free stuff because they like you. Nope, they’re giving it to you because they expect to win your money.

Your comps are based on something called theoretical loss (or “theo,” as regulars call it). That’s the casino’s estimate of how much money you’re expected to lose, based on these things:

• The game you’re playing (slots have higher house edges than blackjack)
• Your average bet size
• How long have you been playing?
• And in some cases, how fast you play

The formula looks something like this:

Theoretical loss = total amount wagered × house edge × time played

So if you’re betting $10 per hand at blackjack for three hours, the casino does the math and estimates your expected loss. Maybe it’s $150. Based on that, they might give you comps worth $10 to $20. That’s your “comp value.”

Loyalty tiers also come into play. Most casinos have a rewards program (MGM Rewards, Caesars Rewards, etc.) that tracks your gambling and assigns you a tier, like Bronze, Silver, Gold, Diamond, and so on. The higher your tier? The better your comps. You’ll get more offers, better rooms, priority access to events, and maybe a dedicated host who can customize your perks.

Why Casinos Bother with Comps

Most comps return only a small percentage of your actual loss. A typical slot player might get comps worth 0.1% to 0.5% of their total coin-in. That means if you run $10,000 through a slot machine, you’re maybe getting $10–50 in comp value, depending on the casino’s generosity. High rollers fare better, but even then, the casino always comes out ahead.

Comps Are a Game within the Game

Once you grasp how comps work, you start to realize that they’re not just perks; they’re a vital part of the business model. And if you’re smart, you can treat them like another bankroll: not in dollars, but in value. If you’re a mid-level player or someone just visiting for the weekend, there are ways to stretch those freebies beyond what they’re “worth” on paper. But to do that, you’ve got to think of comps less like a reward and more like a currency!

Why Most Players Undervalue Their Comps

Comps feel like they’re a bonus. That’s both the hook and the trap. Because you didn’t pay for them, it isn’t hard to treat them like throwaway perks instead of something that has real value. That mindset? It’s what casinos are banking on.

Then there’s the gift shop trap. Casinos love it when people burn food or resort credits on overpriced souvenirs or marked-up snacks. A $25 comp doesn’t go far when you’re buying a $7 candy bar or a logo hoodie that would be half the price anywhere else. Just because a comp can be used doesn’t mean it should be used. Capiche?

Letting Value Expire

The other way players lose out is by doing absolutely nothing. Free rooms go unbooked. Show tickets expire before anyone even checks who the headliner is. Free play coupons sit in drawers, untouched. And casinos are not gonna chase you down to remind you; they’re more than happy to let the offer vanish if you’re not watching your email or loyalty account.

A lot of missed comps come from confusion around blackout dates, expiration windows, or vague wording on offers. But most often, it’s a lack of planning. Maybe you meant to take that comped two-night stay, but the dates didn’t line up, or you figured you’d get around to it “later.” That later never came, and the comp disappeared.

Not All Redemptions Are the Same

This next part is the thing that a lot of casual players miss: not all comp uses give you the same value. That $50 resort credit? You could use it on two overpriced drinks and a bag of chips… or you could save it for a fancy meal. A comped suite during off-peak season might be worth $100. But if you bank it and use it over New Year’s weekend? It might just cover a $450 room rate. That’s real leverage.

You have to understand that there is a hidden value in almost every comp. If you wouldn’t normally pay cash for something, don’t waste your comps on it just because it’s “free.”

Free play, especially, should be treated super strategically. Use it on games with better return-to-player (RTP) percentages, not whatever happens to be the closest game to the bar.

Act Like You’re Spending Cash

This is a simple rule: treat comps like they’re money. If you wouldn’t pay $50 for a generic sweatshirt, don’t use a $50 in comp credit on one! If you wouldn’t book a room during the week for $80 out of pocket, but you would for $300 on a weekend, use the comp then. Just because the casino handed you the coupon in no way means that you owe them your loyalty.

Start thinking about comps as currency with fluctuating value, depending on how and when you use them. All of a sudden, that dusty “free” dinner becomes something worth timing and planning. And instead of being just another player eating at the buffet out of habit, you’re someone who’s getting real value out of the system.

Trading and Selling Casino Comps: Is It Legal or Allowed?

Ok, onto swapping and selling casino comps. Is it legal? Merely frowned upon? Eh, it’s complicated. Trading casino comps isn’t encouraged, but it’s not outright illegal either. It’s sort of like jaywalking. Unless you do it in front of a cop, most of the time? No one cares. But that could change depending on how you do it and who knows about it.

Best Ways to Trade or Repurpose Casino Comps for Higher Value

Once you realize that you don’t have to use you at a buffet or for an off-season hotel night, the game changes. When they’re used the right way? Basic perks can become part of something bigger! It could be a better trip, a shared deal with a friend, or a negotiation chip with a host. You don’t have to be a high roller to get creative.

1. Direct Trades with Other Players

Think of comps as bargaining chips. You’ve got a comped hotel stay, and someone else has a stack of food credits they won’t use. Maybe you’re going to town for a show, and they’re coming for poker. This is where the bartering starts.

And they don’t have to be dollar-for-dollar. Maybe someone values a prime steakhouse meal over a basic hotel room. The point is to match interest, not numbers. The informal trades fly under the radar because they’re not public sales, and usually, no cash is involved.

Just be smart about who you’re dealing with. If you’re trading with strangers online, use groups that vet members or have reputation systems. And keep it simple; no complex chains of trades that fall apart when one person flakes.

2. Share Comps with Friends and Family

This one’s underrated and totally legal! At most casinos, you’re allowed to let someone else check in under your comped room, as long as you set it up properly. You don’t even have to be there.

Let’s say you scored a two-night comp at a Vegas property but can’t make the trip. Your sister is going and needs a place to stay. You call the hotel, book the comp, and list them as the secondary guest. Easy peasy!

You don’t even have to trade anything in return, although some people do turn it into a longer-term exchange:

• “Use my comped room this trip, and I’ll take your extra show tickets next time.”
• “You use my food credit now, I get first dibs on your freeplay next time.”

Players who travel as a group will pool their comps; one person books the suite, another brings the show tickets, and a third takes care of the eats. That turns a few scattered offers into a full weekend setup. Casinos don’t mind as long as the comps get used and at least one person is playing under their rewards account.

3. Work with a Host or Third-Party Concierge

If you’ve built any kind of status, and no, you don’t have to be an elite high roller, this is where things can get interesting. Casino hosts can do way more than send you birthday cards. A good host will reshuffle comps to suit your plans if you ask the right way.

If your email offer includes a basic room, some freeplay, and a buffet credit, but you’d rather skip the buffet and stay in a suite? Ask! The host may be able to repackage the offer and cut the food credit, and throw in a nicer room or a show ticket instead.

Third-party concierge services do something similar, especially for cruise casinos and destination resorts. Sites like URComped work with smaller properties to hook players up with better deals in exchange for verified gambling activity. They’ll usually combine your comps into bundles, like room plus airfare reimbursement or show tickets stacked with extra freeplay, if you agree to give them a certain amount of play while you’re there.

Just don’t expect miracles if you’re betting $10 per day! But know that moderate players can get upgrades or custom packages if they know who to ask and when.

4. Time It Right

A comp is worth exactly what it saves you. And what it saves you depends almost entirely on timing.

If your comps have flexible dates, stash them until they pack the most punch. Players who travel to Vegas for fights, major poker series, or holiday weekends can turn average comps into high-value perks just by holding off.

5. Use Comps at Other Properties

This one’s called comp matching or comp shopping. It’s not really advertised, but hosts at competing casinos will sometimes offer you perks if they know you’ve already got an offer from somewhere else.

If you’ve got two comped nights at Caesars and you’re thinking about trying Wynn? Drop the Caesars offer into conversation with a Wynn host. In some cases, they’ll match or beat it to lure you over. This doesn’t always work at low tiers, but once you hit mid-level status or show decent play history, casinos will fight for you.

Even without a formal match, knowing what comps you’re getting from one chain can give you leverage to negotiate better terms at another. You’re not beholden to one casino, so use what you’ve earned to open up other options.

Tools & Communities That Help You Trade or Optimize Comps

If you’re still relying only on casino emails and hoping a decent offer shows up, you’re missing out on the good stuff. There’s a whole subculture of players who trade tips, post comps, compare offers, and work the system better than most hosts do. Plugging into the below communities can change how you play and how much you get back!

Message Boards That Know of What They Speak

Old-school forums are still one of the most underrated resources for comp strategy, and these are the best:

• VegasMessageBoard: This place is a goldmine for comp-specific threads. Players swap real stories about what worked, what didn’t, and what they negotiated behind the scenes. If you want to know if a casino will let your spouse use your free room while you’re out of town? Ten people on here have already done it and reported back.
• Wizard of Vegas: This one is more analytical, but the comp math and strategy threads can be super helpful if you’re trying to figure out how to stretch your play into better value.
• TripAdvisor (Vegas and Atlantic City forums): These can be hit or miss, but if you dig through them, you’ll find lots of trip reports, offer breakdowns, and people exchanging advice about how they stacked comps across multiple casinos during a single trip.

Lurking is free! But posting can get you answers to questions that you didn’t even think to ask.

Reddit Threads, Real Experiences

Reddit isn’t only for memes and conspiracy theories; there are entire subreddits where players talk comp strategy in between bragging about their wins.

• r/lasvegas: This is one of the best subs for comp discussion, especially if you’re booking a trip and want to see how others used theirs. You’ll find players comparing room upgrades, explaining which properties are cheap or stingy, and screenshots of offers so others can match or beat them elsewhere.
• r/gambling: A bit broader, but really helpful if you’re playing across different markets. There are plenty of crossover tips for Vegas, tribal casinos, and riverboats.

Not every comment is worthwhile, but you’ll definitely get a good sense of what’s possible and how much negotiating power you have.

Apps That Convert Time-Wasters Into Real Perks

Of course, there’s an app for this! Dedicated mobile apps hand out comps, and no, it’s not a scam.

• myVEGAS Slots: You play free slot games on your phone, rack up loyalty points, and cash them in for things like buffet passes, show tickets, and free room nights at MGM properties. It’s time-consuming, yes, but if you’re already scrolling your phone, you might as well earn a buffet while you’re at it.
• URComped: The more serious players use this one. You link your gambling profile (or prove your level of play), and they connect you with offers from cruise lines, off-Strip casinos, or regional properties that are looking for new blood. Their concierge team does the outreach for you, and in return, you agree to gamble at a certain level once you arrive. For mid-tier players trying to level up, this will unlock better rooms, premium comps, and VIP treatment you’d never get just walking in cold.
• Comped Travel Services and other similar groups: These are the niche outfits that help bundle offers, especially for multi-property trips. They’re like travel agents who specialize in getting the most out of your casino activity. They’re not for everyone, but if you’re planning a longer trip or hitting multiple cities, it might be worth looking into.

VIP Groups and Insider Circles

There are private Discord servers, Facebook groups, and invite-only Telegram chats where high-volume players trade offers, coordinate trips, and share access to hosts or comp codes. You won’t find these on a Google search.

But once you start hanging around message boards, sharing useful info, or even just asking the right questions in public threads, you can get invited in. These are the places where you’ll see players posting things like:

• “Just got offered 3 nights at Bellagio + $250 resort credit. Does anyone want to stack a spa comp on this?”
• “Looking to split a suite comp in December, I’ve got the host contact and can book.”

These aren’t sprawling operations; they’re usually just a handful of players who know how to get the most out of the system and enjoy helping each other do the same.

You Don’t Need to Be a High Roller to Plug In

That’s the biggest misconception. These communities aren’t just for $100-a-hand blackjack players. If you gamble semi-regularly, keep records, and have a player’s card or two, you’ve already got something to work with. The key is knowing where the value lives, and the above tools and communities will help you spot it faster than the average player walking in off the street.

Four High-Stakes Strategies: How Serious Players Extract Maximum Comp Value

For the casual gamblers out there, comps are a nice perk: a free buffet here, a discounted room there. But for serious players? They’re a second currency. The best ones use comps the way others use points, miles, or frequent flyer status: they track them, trade them, and stack them in ways that would make a loyalty program executive have a panic attack.

Four Risks and Pitfalls to Avoid

Getting creative with your comps is smart. Treating them like free money, bulletproof perks, or side income? That’s not so smart! Casinos aren’t naive, and they do track your habits, compare your comps to your play, and notice when things don’t add up. Don’t make these rookie comp mistakes!

Final Thoughts: Your Casino Comps Are Currency, So Treat Them Like It

If you’ve been thinking about comps as random perks or nice little freebies, it’s time to recalibrate your noggin. Every comp you earn represents money that the casino expects to make off of you. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take advantage of it, but it does mean you should think like the house does.

Comps aren’t given because a casino cares about you. They’re doled out for loyalty, control, and pushing you to give the casino one more spin, one more bet, one more night. But if you treat those offers strategically by trading them, timing them, or looping in friends, you can play the house instead of the house playing you. Comps will become useful tools to lower your costs, level up your trips, and get more out of your play without spending more than you need to!

Even low-tier players can punch above their weight here. You don’t need to be dropping five figures in the high-limit room to make comps work in your favor. You just have to understand what they’re worth, where they go to waste, and how to extract more value before they expire, get downgraded, or fall through the cracks.

Most players leave money on the table, but you don’t have to be one of them!

Conclusion: You Can Turn Your Freebies Into Wins

Okay, so now that we’re all up to speed with how you can trade your casino comps and why it pays off, let’s do a recap of everything we learned!

• Comps aren’t worthless spam or junk mail; they have real value if you know you use them.
• Trading, sharing, or repurposing comps can turn throwaway perks into hotel nights, dinners, or upgraded trips.
• Don’t overspend chasing comps! Value is not value if you have to lose three times that amount to earn it.
• Stay off the radar. Down-low trades are fine. Public resale? That’ll get you clipped.
• Think long-term. Use comps to build relationships, stretch your bankroll, and negotiate better offers later on.

Comps can be a part of your advantage, but only if you treat them like they matter, and they definitely do! The house is literally counting on you wasting them. Don’t play into their hands.

Inter Miami vs. FC Cincinnati Prediction & Betting Preview (July 26, 2025)

Inter Miami will get another crack at FC Cincinnati on Saturday, barely a week removed from a 3–0 defeat in Ohio. And this time, they’ll be in Fort Lauderdale, and they’re looking much better after putting five past the Red Bulls in a stellar performance.

FC Cincinnati enters with three wins on the bounce and eight goals to show for it. They’ve been absolutely clinical in front of the goal and won’t bat an eye at playing Messi and Miami again, not after beating them.

This is the last league match before the Leagues Cup kicks off, and Cincy wants to stay on top. Miami wants payback. Who’ll run the field?

Keep reading to find out what you need to know! We’ve got game stakes, team forms, stats, the current betting odds, tactical matchups, our choices for the three best bets, and a bonus angle!

Game Details

• Matchup:FC Cincinnati at Inter Miami
• Date & Time: Saturday, July 26 at 7:15 p.m. ET (23:15 UTC)
• Venue: Chase Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, FL
• How To Watch: Live on Apple TV (MLS Season Pass), FS1, and FOX Deportes; English radio on iHeart/ESPN 1530 AM, Spanish radio on La Mega 101.5 FM (Cincinnati region)
• Weather Forecast: Warm and humid; around 31°C (88°F) at kickoff

Why This Match Matters

• Inter Miami is in 7th in the East with 41 points, and they’re trying to stay above the playoff line. Cincinnati is in second place with 48 points and is chasing first place.
• Their most famous meeting came in the 2023 U.S. Open Cup semis; it was a 3–3 draw that went to penalties.
• Cincinnati beat Miami 3–0 a week ago, so this is Miami’s chance to clap back before heading into Leagues Cup play.

Team Form & Key Stats

Inter Miami looks to control tempo through Messi’s link-ups and Busquets’ distribution, and Cincinnati pushes the game vertically; they target space with Denkey’s movement and Acosta’s passing. Here’s a look at both teams’ forms and the main stats!

Odds & Betting Lines

Putting your money where your mouth is for Miami or Cincinnati? Here are the latest betting odds and lines via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Make sure to check the most up-to-date odds before placing your wagers. Lines can move as game time approaches, so it pays to stay current!

Tactical Matchup

Let’s get into the tactical matchups for this game!

• Messi & Suárez against Cincinnati’s defensive unit: Miami’s movement and vision in the final third will challenge a Cincinnati backline that’s built on size and structure. Expect to see close marking and early pressure on the ball to disrupt the rhythm.
• Midfield control: Sergio Busquets dictates tempo with short passing and positioning, but Cincy’s pairing (likely to be Obi and Moreno) adds pressure and vertical drive that could force Miami into making hasty decisions.
• Chase Stadium vs. Cincinnati’s road approach: Playing in Fort Lauderdale does give Miami a boost, but Cincy has been really organized away from home; they stay compact and choose when to step out instead of pressing high.

Our Best Bets

Time for our best bets! We’ve got our eye on three angles that look worthwhile and a bonus lean!

Betting Tips & Strategy

• If this one starts out slow, the totals could shift early on, so watch for a flat opening 15 to trigger better O/U odds.
• Limit your exposure to one or two focused bets instead of stacking risky combos.
• Check the confirmed lineups before kickoff; late scratches can change roles and the whole game’s tempo.

Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati: How We See It Playing Out

Look, there’s no other way to say it; Cincinnati embarrassed Miami last week. A shutout with Messi on the field? What? That had to hurt. 

But Messi and co. have a chance to get back at Cincy with this one, and they get to do it at home. Miami’s attack looked lifeless in the last meeting, but that won’t happen twice. 

Messi will find pockets and Suárez will drag defenders around, so they’re in a way better spot to make holes in Cincinnati’s form. Denkey is still a big threat on the break, and Baird’s service into the box can turn sloppy moves into goals. But away from TQL, Cincinnati’s defensive line has looked a little stretched and reactive.

We think it’ll be a high-scoring affair, and that Miami will look a heck of a lot more awake this time around, so we’re backing them.

Best Bets Recap

• Inter Miami ML (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️☆)
• Over 3.5 Total Goals (⭐️⭐️⭐️☆)
• Messi Anytime Goal (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️☆)

Live betting could be useful if the match opens up early, so watch for changes in totals or goal scorer props once the game is afoot!

Final Score Prediction: Inter Miami 3 – 2 FC Cincinnati

Messi at home will be the difference-maker, and with Miami pressing harder than they did in Ohio, they’re in a good position to dictate the pace. Cincinnati has enough up front to stay close, but their road defense has taken too many hits. The visitors just don’t have the defensive depth to hold Miami off for 90 minutes here.

Dodgers vs. Red Sox Betting Preview & Prediction (July 25, 2025)

It’s a battle in Boston! The LA Dodgers are headed east to play the Red Sox at Fenway Park for a three-game series, and it all begins on Friday night. 

Both clubs are in playoff mode and slugging it out for a postseason position, so it’ll be some good ol’ baseball. 

Who’s on the hill for LA? That would be Emmet Sheehan. And who’s throwing for the Red Sox? Brayan Bello.

The Dodgers are the slight favorites going in, but Boston is at home, and that could light a fire under the Red Sox players.

We’ll get into it all below with the latest betting odds, starting pitchers matchup, recent trends, and what we feel are the three best bets for the opener in this series!

Game Details

• Matchup: LA Dodgers (60-43) vs. Boston Red Sox (55-49)
• Date & Time: Friday, July 25, at 7:10 pm ET (4:10 pm PT)
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
• How to Watch: NESN (New England), SportsNet LA (Southern California); also available via local RSNs and MLB.tv
• Forecast for the First Pitch: It’ll be partly sunny and around 92°F with southwest winds ~11 mph, humid, and a 40% chance of afternoon storms, and that could influence later-inning conditions

Betting Odds

You rootin’ for Boston or LA? Before you do, check out the current betting odds and lines according to DraftKings Sportsbook:

Starting Pitchers & Matchup Notes

Let’s take a look at the starters and a few important matchup factors:

Key Matchups

• Dodgers against Bello’s sinker-heavy approach: Right-handed hitters like Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández do well when they get pitches at the bottom of the zone they can lift. Bello’s best shot is getting ahead with his changeup and forcing ground contact early. If he’s missing spots, that group will elevate and punish anything left too low and firm.
• Red Sox vs. Sheehan’s Fastball: Sheehan throws in the mid-90s, but his fastball stays flat when he doesn’t change eye levels or pair it with his offspeed pitches. And that’s a problem against a Red Sox lineup that forces pitchers into the zone. Hitters like Devers, Casas, and Yoshida will wait, and if they’re seeing the fastball belt-high? They’ll time it up and drive it.
• Bullpen Matchup: The Dodgers are going into this game with a bullpen that’s had a lighter week and more options; Evan Phillips and Ryan Brasier can handle the middle or late innings without falling behind in counts, and neither one has pitched since Tuesday. Boston’s pen has seen heavier use. Jansen, Bernardino, and Slaten all pitched earlier this week, so the Red Sox may be thinner if Bello doesn’t give them length. If this one’s still close in the 6th inning, LA has more flexibility on the mound.

Recent Trends & Betting History

• The Dodgers have won around 61% of games when listed as moneyline favorites at –119 or shorter (about 53–34 in those spots).
• The Red Sox have won nearly 42% of their games when priced between +101 and +104.

Betting History

• Los Angeles is 4–6 over its last 10, and 7 of those games have stayed under the total.
• Boston is 6–4 in its last 10 overall but has dropped 4 of its last 5 when they going as the slight underdog.

Betting Angles & Insights

• If Sheehan gets through the first few innings clean? LA’s bullpen puts them in a good position in the later innings.
• Boston still has value at home as the underdog, especially if they can stretch out at-bats and force early traffic.
• The total could stay in check if both starters avoid big innings and relievers keep base traffic low.

Our Best Bets

Ok, so for this matchup, we have three angles that look pretty decent! Here are our three best bets.

Tonight’s Game Call

Bello’s been good when he’s at home all season; he keeps runs off the board and the base traffic light. The Sox usually give him decent support at Fenway, but Sheehan probably won’t stick around for more than 5 innings because Boston’s lineup will force deep counts. Even so, the numbers like LA to pull out the win, even though they’re on the road.

If Boston doesn’t take advantage in the early innings, LA’s bench and bullpen will tip it. The value’s pretty thin either way, but backing the Dodgers to take it is the best angle.

Best Bets Recap

• Under 10 Total Runs (–115): ★★★★☆
• Red Sox +1.5 Run Line (–156): ★★★☆☆
• Shohei Ohtani Anytime HR (+340): ★★☆☆☆ (longshot)

Don’t forget to check the latest odds on one of our best betting sites! Lines can shift closer to first pitch, so always make sure you’ve got the updated prices before you bet.

Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 4, Red Sox 3

We think it’ll be an action-packed game in the early innings, but in the end? The Dodgers’ bullpen will get them over the finish line in the series opener!