Rockets vs. Warriors Game 4 Predictions (April 28, 2025)
Golden State’s playoff run has kept them in the fight so far, but Game 4 will come with some, um, challenges to put it mildly. The Warriors aren’t just duking it out with a younger team—they have to do it without Jimmy Butler. And he is one of the only players who could change a series outcome with sheer effort. Steph Curry will be fighting an uphill battle.
Houston has been playing with a freedom that’s hard to ignore and fun to watch. They aren’t rushing possessions. They aren’t forcing any shots. They look like a team that has full faith in the system that they’ve built, and so far, it’s putting a ton of pressure on the Warriors’ older core.
The series is knotted at 1–1, which makes this game less like a toss-up and more like a measuring stick for both squads. Who’s gonna take it? Read on to see what we think!
Game Snapshot
Here’s where things are at as we head into Game 4:
- Matchup: Houston Rockets (No. 2 seed) vs. Golden State Warriors (No. 7 seed)
- Series: Tied 1 – 1*
- Tip-off: 10:00 pm ET
- Location: Chase Center, San Francisco
- Broadcast: TNT
*The blog was written prior to Game 3 of the Rockets vs. Warriors matchup. (Series: GSW leads 2 – 1)
The Rockets got the split they needed at home, and they look anything but scared. Now they have a chance to turn the series in their favor, and right in front of a Chase Center crowd that’s itching to see the Warriors pull this one out.
Storylines to Watch
There’s always more happening leading up to the final score, and here are the biggest factors in the Game 4 matchup!
Jimmy Butler’s Absence
There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Butler missing the game changes everything. Golden State leaned on his defense and late-game poise in crunch time. Without him? It’s going to be Kuminga trying to fill shoes that are three sizes too big.
Butler’s absence doesn’t just hurt scoring—it opens the lane for Houston’s slashers and turns every Rockets possession into a problem for the Warriors’ aging legs.
Golden State brought in Butler to raise their floor and give them another shot creator when games tightened up. Now they’ll have to scramble more defensively, especially when Houston spaces the floor and forces decisions in the corners.
Stephen Curry’s Challenge
Curry’s not washed. He’s still capable of jaw-dropping runs. But Houston’s been physical with him — bumping him, crowding his airspace, making him work for even a clean catch.
Without Butler pulling defenders away, Steph is staring down doubles every trip. If he doesn’t go nuclear, Golden State’s offense will be painfully thin. In Game 2, Curry looked like a player who was stuck between forcing the action and trusting the flow. He finished with just 20 points, and for stretches, Houston had him second-guessing shots he normally fires off without any hesitation.
Curry doesn’t have the luxury of picking his spots anymore. He needs to set the tone immediately. Look for him to be far more aggressive off the ball early, hunting clean looks through screens and transition before Houston’s defense can load up.
Rockets’ Offensive Strategy
At the beginning of the series, Houston looked like a young team that believed they could win. Now, two games in, they look like a team that understands how to win.
Ime Udoka’s fingerprints are all over this Rockets team. They’re smart. They’re patient. They’re picking their spots and letting Şengün control the pace. Houston’s not getting baited into Warriors runs—they’re slowing the game down when they need to and punishing switches.
Alperen Şengün has been a big part of that shift. His passing from the post has created better looks for everyone around him, and Golden State hasn’t had an answer. Draymond Green is still a brilliant defender, but at his size, he can only do so much when Şengün faces up and starts picking apart mismatches.
The Rockets’ guards, especially Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet, have been selective and deliberate, which has kept the Warriors from getting into the open floor where they’re the most dangerous. Houston isn’t only playing with energy—they’re controlling possessions, which forces Golden State to work far harder than they want to.
Current Betting Odds, Line Movement & Predictions
Below are the numbers as of now (via DraftKings Sportsbook):
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Rockets | +3.5 (-112) | +142 | Over 199.5 (-110) |
Warriors | -3.5 (-108) | -170 | Under 199.5 (-110) |
Yesterday Betting Odds
- Spread: Warriors -3.5
- Moneyline: Warriors -160 | Rockets +135
- Over/Under: 205 points
The Warriors opened as the favorites, but the line hasn’t changed that much even after Butler’s injury announcement. That says that the market has a lot of respect for Golden State’s home-court track record, even if the roster itself is looking a little more sparse.
Best Bets
A few spots look particularly strong based on how the series has played out so far:
- Under 205 Total Points: Both teams have leaned heavily on defense in the first two games, and with Butler out, Golden State’s offense loses a second option who can draw fouls and break down sets. Houston’s defensive discipline has kept them from giving up easy buckets. Unless Curry delivers one of his classic scoring outbursts early on, this game feels like another lower-scoring battle where every possession gets tighter the longer it stays close.
- Alperen Şengün Over 35.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-110): Şengün has been controlling stretches of the game with his uncanny ability to create from the post. Golden State’s rotation doesn’t have a real matchup for him without doubling, and doubling has only opened more passing angles. Expect another strong all-around stat line, especially with Butler gone to take away one of the few physical matchups Şengün had to deal with.
- Stephen Curry Over 26.5 Points (-123): The Warriors don’t have enough offense without Curry being aggressive in the opening minutes. He’ll take on more shot volume and handle heavier usage simply because he has to. If he gets going early, especially from deep, this number is very reachable by the third quarter.
Final Prediction
Note: All betting lines are subject to change, so check the updated odds closer to game time! And as always, please gamble responsibly.
Golden State’s playoff experience and Curry’s shot-making will always keep them in games, but without Jimmy Butler? The margin for error becomes pretty much nonexistent.
Houston is younger, healthier, and more balanced at both ends of the floor. They’re not forcing bad shots, they’re attacking mismatches with a sense of purpose, and they have the bodies to wear down Golden State over four quarters.
Even if Curry comes through with a superhuman performance, the Rockets have enough firepower and steadiness to take control late.
Final Score Prediction: Houston Rockets 104, Golden State Warriors 99
You can expect to watch a competitive game, but Houston’s structure and reliability give them the upper hand once things tighten up in the fourth.
