NCAAW Final Four Betting Pick – Texas Longhorns vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (April 4, 2025)
It really doesn’t get much bigger than this for women’s basketball. The Texas Longhorns and South Carolina Gamecocks are only one win away from the national championship, and all eyes will be on Tampa as they hoop it out at Amalie Arena on April 4. Both teams have had stellar seasons, both are packed with talent, and both have reasons to think that they can win it all.
With bragging rights, legacies, and a shot at the title on the line, this game is going to be intense from the opening tip.
Team Overviews
It’s not like this particular matchup came out of the blue—Texas and South Carolina have been circling each other and in the national conversation all season long. And now they’ll meet again, but this time? It’s for all the marbles (well, most of the marbles).
Texas Longhorns
Texas has undoubtedly been one of the most consistent teams in the country this year, and they’ve got the record to back it up.
- Season Performance: Finished 35-3 overall, with a 15-1 record in SEC play. They shared the regular-season title with South Carolina and have been locked in during the tournament.
- Madison Booker (F): She leads the team in scoring at 16.5 points per game and has been their most dependable shot creator.
- Rori Harmon (G): Rori is the floor general, and she averages 5.9 assists per game and keeps the offense flowing.
- Taylor Jones (F): With 6.9 rebounds per game, Jones is a force to be reckoned with inside and will play a huge role in trying to control the paint against South Carolina’s size.
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina has been right there with Texas all season! The team has a strong record, a deep rotation, and a roster that’s been handling all of the pressure with grace.
- Season Performance: Wrapped the season at 34-3 overall, going 15-1 in SEC play to share the regular-season title with Texas.
- Joyce Edwards (F): She’s the team’s top scorer at 12.7 points per game. Edwards is aggressive, confident, and plays way bigger than her numbers suggest.
- Chloe Kitts (F): Kitts pulls down 7.9 rebounds per game and is doing the dirty work on both ends of the floor.
- Te-Hina Paopao (G): We love Paopao—she runs the show with 2.9 assists per game and stays steady, unbothered, and clutch in late-game spots.
Head-to-Head Matchup
Having already squared off three times this season prior to the NCAAW Final Four, Texas and South Carolina are familiar with each other’s games ( the Gamecocks took two of those matchups). It’s almost impossible to sneak anything past each other at this point because they have gotten up close and personal with each other’s tendencies, matchups, and pressure points.
Look below for a recap of their stats:
- Season Series: The teams have already clashed thrice this year, and South Carolina came out on top in two of those games.
- Scoring Offense: South Carolina is putting up 80.5 points per game, just ahead of Texas at 78.8.
- Scoring Defense: Texas has held off its opponents to 55.6 points per game, and South Carolina has allowed 57.4.
Biggest Factors Influencing the Game
As for the biggest factors that will influence this game? There are some major ones to take into account if you’re gonna bet, so read on to find out what they are!
Texas’s Strategy for Victory
Texas is going to need a solid defensive performance that will disrupt everything that South Carolina wants to do. How do they do that? Pressure.
- Defensive Pressure: In their recent win over TCU, the Longhorns forced 21 turnovers, which is a stark reminder that they can totally change a game by getting in passing lanes and applying ball pressure. They’ll need that energy and then some in Tampa.
- Controlling the Paint: Because they have Taylor Jones and Madison Booker, Texas has size and physicality up front, so they’ll need to own the boards and capitalize on any second-chance opportunities to stay in control.
South Carolina’s Approach
South Carolina crushes it when it comes to wearing teams down and taking control late in the game. Why mess with what works? That’s likely going to be their strategy in Tampa.
- Depth and Versatility: This team has never depended on a single star player to get it done. Their bench is absolutely stacked, and they can mix lineups and not lose their rhythm or momentum.
- Second-Half Dominance: South Carolina has consistently taken over games after halftime so far in the tourney. If they keep that up, they could take control down the stretch yet again.
Betting Odds and Predictions
South Carolina comes into this one as the favorite, and the oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook concur. As of today, here are the current lines:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Texas | +4.5 (-108) | +172 | Over 124.5 (-110) |
South Carolina | -4.5 (-112) | +215 | Under 124.5 (-110) |
According to ESPN Analytics, South Carolina has a 62.4% chance of winning, and Texas is stuck at 37.6%. It’s not anywhere near a blowout gap, but South Carolina’s track record this season and in this matchup does justify that line.
Expert Predictions
There are some experts who are banking on the Gamecocks’ experience and bench depth, and there are others who are backing Texas’s defensive pressure and ability to always be within striking distance. Either way, the numbers show that this one could be a tight one, especially if Texas controls the pace. There are analysts that do think Texas is a dangerous underdog and that South Carolina isn’t the runaway favorite, so that’s worth mentioning!
Our Final Thoughts and Betting Pick
In our opinion, this game is going to go down to the wire. South Carolina’s already taken two of the three matchups this season and does look a little more polished overall, but Texas has been locked in on defense and bringing some serious energy to every game they play.
Our Pick
We have South Carolina to win outright, but that doesn’t mean that Texas doesn’t have a real shot of hanging around. Yes, we are taking South Carolina to win, but it might not be a blowout. If the spread gets any bigger, betting on Texas to cover could be worth a closer look!
One thing that we can say without a doubt? Neither team is going down without a fight.
Prop Bet or Bonus Pick
- Prop Bet: Chloe Kitts Over 8.5 Rebounds
- Why We Like It: FanDuel is currently listing Chloe Kitts’ rebounding prop at 8.5, so this could be a valuable bet. She’s been the most active player on the glass for South Carolina and will be a big factor against Texas’s aggressive frontcourt. And in a game that’s likely to be physical and shot-heavy inside, her rebounding numbers should trend up.
Odds can change as the game nears, so you should check out the latest odds and props on FanDuel’s NCAAW page!
Folks? This is gonna be one heck of a showdown! Texas and South Carolina are super familiar with one another, so it’s not like they’ll be able to surprise each other with new tricks. It will all come down to who’s on their game and who wants it more.
You can watch the game live on ESPN at 7:00 p.m. EST on April 4. You’re not gonna want to miss this must-see basketball!
