Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions (April 10, 2025)

Finally, it’s pitchers and catchers season! And if you’re a baseball fan, then you KNOW that a Thursday afternoon at Fenway Park is gonna get rowdy. It’s an AL East showdown on deck between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox, and they’re closing out their three-game set tomorrow–both are jockeying for position in the division standings.

Toronto’s trying to keep its foot on the gas after winning the first two games of the series, and Boston’s just trying to stop the bleeding before the home crowd goes full-Boston. The standings are already crowded, and every game carries more weight, but this one seems like it could be a raucous day at the yard.

You can expect tight at-bats and Boston fans being their Boston-y best. But who should you put your money on? Read on to find out which dugout will reign supreme!

Team Overviews

The AL East is tighter than a pine-tarred bat handle, and every series is like a mini postseason. The Blue Jays have been slugging their way to the top, and the Red Sox are trying to claw their way back into some semblance of rhythm. How are both squads looking as they head into the series finale?

Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays have come out swinging, and they mean business. Sitting at 7-5, they’ve been holding it down near the top of the AL East and only took two straight off the Sox at Fenway, and that’s no easy feat. They’re stringing hits together, playing clean defense, and getting just enough from the bump to stay ahead.

Main Players

• George Springer is absolutely dialed in. He’s batting a ridiculous .459 and has already knocked in 9 runs. This dude is a spark plug at the top of the lineup.
• Look out for Bo Bichette as well—he’s been barreling up everything, and his glove up the middle has saved more than a few runs.

Boston Red Sox

The Sox aren’t looking as solid as the Jays and got off to a wobbly start. They came into the series at 6-4 but have dropped two straight and are sitting at an even 6-6. Being home at Fenway Park usually gives them an advantage, but right now, it feels like they’re pressing a little by leaving runners stranded and letting innings slip through their gloves.

Main Players

• Wilyer Abreu has been one of the few consistent sticks in the lineup. He’s hitting .412 with 3 dingers and 12 RBIs and doing everything he can to pick up the slack.
• Rafael Devers has been heating up as well, and if he starts squaring balls up? He could turn things around in his team’s favor!

Pitching Matchup

If you love to watch pitchers try to keep the ball out of the nosebleed seats, this one’s worth a watch. We’ve got two right-handers on the mound—one of them throws darts, and the other is slinging hittable pitches. It’s definitely a contrast in form, and it could be the difference-maker in how the ballgame shakes out!

Toronto Blue Jays Starter

• Chris Bassitt: A righty pitcher with a 1-0 record, 0.71 ERA, and 16 strikeouts over 12.2 innings pitched.
• Analysis: Bassitt’s been dealing early this season, mixing up his sinker, cutter, and curve to keep hitters off their back feet. He’s not blowing guys away with heat, but his command and pitch sequencing have been spot-on. Against Boston, he’s had mixed results in the past, but when his sinker’s working and the defense stays sharp behind him? He’s more than capable of shutting down a lineup. He pitches to contact, but it’s been weak contact so far.

Boston Red Sox Starter

• Walker Buehler: Another righty with a 1-1 record, 8.68 ERA, and 7 strikeouts over 9.1 innings pitched.
• Analysis: Buehler’s still trying to settle in after a shaky start. His velocity looks fine, but he’s been struggling with command, and when he misses? He is leaving balls up where hitters can do some major damage. That being said, the main stuff is there. He’s got the four-seamer, the breaker, the occasional cutter, but location’s been the biggest issue. If he can paint corners and stay ahead in counts, he’s got the tools to work Toronto’s lineup.

Current Betting Odds, Line Movement, and Insights

Vegas is giving a slight edge to the home team heading into the matchup at Fenway. As you can see above, today the odds are pretty much the same as yesterday, when BetMGM had the Red Sox favored, but the line wasn’t exactly screaming that there’ll be a blowout.

• Moneyline: Blue Jays +110, Red Sox -130
• Run Line: Blue Jays +1.5 (-200), Red Sox -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under: 8.5 total runs

It’s a pretty tight line, and the run total looks like we will see a good amount of action on the scoreboard, but nothing out of the ordinary. The books appear to be hedging on whether either starter will take control.

Betting Trends

• Blue Jays: Toronto has covered the run line in 7 of their last 12 games. They’re staying in games, even when they don’t win outright, and that makes that +1.5 run line look really tempting.
• Red Sox: Boston’s hit the over in 4 of their last 11, so the totals haven’t exactly been booming, but Fenway always has the potential for a crooked inning or two.

Overall, we think that the best value here is with Toronto, especially if you’re depending on Bassitt to keep it close or if Buehler has another struggle sesh.

Key Factors to Watch

There are lots of factors that could swing this game one way or the other, like lineup production, bullpen stamina, and a few big names that are missing from the roster. The following are what you should be watching out for!

Prediction and Betting Pick

Toronto looks like the more complete team in this series. Why? Because they have solid starts, the lineup’s been putting together tough at-bats, and they’ve been steady late in games. Bassitt’s recent form gives them a clear advantage on the bump heading into this game.

Boston does have the home crowd, but they’ll need a better showing from Buehler to keep things within reach. If he struggles early again, Toronto’s lineup could open things up fast.

Last Thoughts

Toronto has kept its composure during this series, and the setup favors them again in the finale. Bassitt’s been super reliable on the mound, the bats are producing regularly, and the bullpen has kept things under control. Boston does have the talent to upend things, but unless Buehler finds a better groove (or any kind of groove), they are facing a pretty steep uphill climb.

Here’s why we like the Blue Jays for this game:

• Chris Bassitt has been really dependable through two starts with a 0.71 ERA
• Toronto’s lineup is clicking with George Springer at the front 
• The bullpen has been steady and hasn’t let leads slip late in the games
• Boston’s relievers have had a hard time in high-leverage spots
• Walker Buehler is still working through his command issues
• At +110, the Jays’ moneyline brings strong value

Tell us who you’re betting on in the comments! Do you think the Blue Jays will finish the sweep or that the Red Sox will salvage this one at home?